Revolution, betrayed?

Did President Maithripala Sirisena just betray the 8 January ballot box
revolution and put the lives of his revolutionaries, ranging from Buddhist
monks to lawyers, academics and artistes, precariously on the line?

Friday, 10 July 2015

When you play a game of thrones, you

either win or you die A Song of Ice
and Fire, George R.R. Martin

President Maithripala Sirisena

On 8 January 2015, once he had cast his vote in Polonnaruwa, Maithripala

Sirisena and his family made their way to remote coconut estate in
Kurunegala. The movement occurred at dusk, when the waning light helped
to hide the small convoy of vehicles carrying the future first family to their

refuge for election night.

When he made the decision to contest Mahinda

Rajapaksa
for the presidency, Sirisena knew he had placed
his life and the lives of his family in the gravest danger. When he stepped
out of the Rajapaksa Government and announced his candidacy in
November 2014, Sirisena spoke poignant words at New Town Hall about
how his children had wept when he had told them his decision.
The broken state of Sri Lankas democracy, battered by nine years of
Rajapaksa rule, ensured that any direct challenger of President Rajapaksas
tight grip on power, even in an election he himself had called, was dancing
with death.
The Sirisena familys retirement to a remote corner of the Kurunegala
District on election night was tacit acknowledgement of this terrible threat.
The time it would take to locate the family the morning after could well
have meant the crucial hours between life, death or incarceration for
Maithripala Sirisena and his immediate family.
So it was that when Sobitha Thero spoke ominous words last weekend,
about the consequences of giving Mahinda Rajapaksa the political space to
enter Parliament and stake a claim for the presidency, President Sirisena,
better than anyone, knew exactly what he meant.
You are fighting to try and protect your party. But remember this. If you
make this decision, the rest of us will have to battle to save our lives, said
the Thero to President Sirisena. It was these words that had visibly shaken
the President, sources who were present at the meeting told Daily FT.
Please ape hamuduruwane, dont upset yourself. Please wait two or three
days and all these things will be sorted out, Sirisena assured the monk
who had fought hard to win him the presidency.

Angry Sobitha Thero

The high-level meeting was sought with President Sirisena after Fridays
announcement from the UPFA that Mahinda Rajapaksa would be given a
nomination to contest as a candidate of the alliance. An irate and emotional
Sobitha Thero pitched into the President at the meeting, reminding him of
his good governance promises and stump speeches in January that flayed
the Rajapaksa family for corruption, nepotism and authoritarian
governance.
Also present at the meeting were top members of an opposition movement
that had swept President Sirisena to office in January. But it was Sobitha
Thero, the spiritual leader as it were of the joint opposition platform and the
architect of the project to ally opposition forces under the umbrella of the
common candidacy to defeat the Rajapaksa regime, who made the biggest
impact, the sources said.
For one endlessly long week the country has waited with bated breath, for
one word, one hint, one moment of straight talk from Maithripala Sirisena,
President of Sri Lanka. Since the announcement by UPFA General Secretary
Susil Premajayantha that former President Mahinda Rajapaksa would be
given nominations to contest on the alliance ticket, there has been only
stony, impenetrable silence from Presidents House.
A brief aberration occurred in Matara last Saturday (4) when President
Sirisena was opening the next phase of the Southern Expressway, linking
Matara to Hambantota, his predecessors home base. There he resorted to
rhetoric, pledging not to betray the silent revolution of 8 January or permit
the restoration of family rule in Sri Lanka. Since then, President Sirisena has
clammed up.
Political circles buzz endlessly with wildly speculative information.
Politicians engage in ceaseless contradiction. An outpouring of emotion
sad, angry and disillusioned have spilled out across the mainstream press
and particularly the social media platforms a domain that proved strongly
supportive of the incumbent Presidents bid in January to defeat the
Rajapaksa regime and has been largely friendly towards Sirisena since.
Emotional betrayal
The words betrayal and Judas are being thrown about regularly in the
narrative as the agents of change in January struggle to come to grips with
President Sirisenas decision to allow his party to grant nominations to the
ex-President.
Other politicians have breached their electoral mandates or allowed their
principles and ideology to be submerged in dirty, expedient politics but
somehow, the betrayal is more emotional this time.
Professor Sarath Wijesooriya, writing in last weekends Ravaya newspaper,
expressed disbelief at the extent of the betrayal, and his pain was palpable

in an article entitled: Has Maithripala paved the path to put 6.2 million
people six feet under?
If President Maithripala Sirisena decides to grant nominations to Mahinda
Rajapaksa, he hurts not himself, but the country. The heart burns with hope,
as each letter is written here, that this will not come to pass, writes the
academic.
The reasons for this practically personal sense of betrayal being articulated
across the country are two-fold. In the first instance, President Sirisena has
spent the last 180 days of his term building an image. Statesman,
consensus-builder, unassuming politician, quiet strategist, thinker,
reconciler: these are the Sirisena attributes the President has actively
cultivated in the hearts of the populace. Traitor and expedient these are
hats that sit less comfortably on this six-month-old presidency. Yet these are
the words now used to describe Sirisena.
Not since Chandrika Kumaratunga has the electorate placed so much faith
in a politician, and at first glance, he appeared to supersede her in humility
and the will to do an honest job of work. His quiet grace and modest
lifestyle, his words spoken softly but with quiet resolve about cleaning up
Sri Lankan politics enamoured the people.
Its never easy to watch heroes fall. Not even when it is a universally
acknowledged truth that political heroes in Sri Lanka will always succumb to
their tragic flaws.
Rajapaksa vs. The Rest
The second reason speaks to the nature of the change that was brought
about on 8 January 2015. The 2015 presidential election was not an
ordinary choice about the countrys next head of state. That election was
Sri Lankas moment of reckoning; possibly the last chance the country
would have to make a real choice between democracy and
authoritarianism.
A third Rajapaksa term would have destroyed any democratic institutions
his nine years in power had left still standing. In his third term, Mahinda
Rajapaksa and his ruling family would have completed Sri Lankas
transformation from broken democracy to fully-fledged autocracy.
The 8 January presidential race was, as this column pointed out late last
year, a battle between Mahinda Rajapaksa and the rest, between the forces
that sought to entrench dynastic rule and those that sought to reclaim the
republic. For the democracy-seeking rest, the battle to root out the
Rajapaksa menace was worth putting their lives on the line for.
Sobitha Thero and the group of academics and professionals that mobilised
around the monks political movement for change took this risk, as did
artistes, civil society representatives and trade union movements that
drummed up support for the Sirisena candidacy.
The movement built around Sirisena was much less about the individual

contesting he was untested and relatively unknown on the national

political stage. The movement was anti-Rajapaksa in essence, in the way it
opposed Rajapaksa values, Rajapaksa corruption and impunity, Rajapaksa
governance and the former regimes unabashed nepotism. For the leader of
that movement to make room for Mahinda Rajapaksas re-emergence in
national politics, with his family and cronies in tow is terrible treachery.
Maithripala Sirisena realised then that to lose the 8 January election could
mean death, or incarceration. Now, the dangers of a Rajapaksa comeback
have renewed fears of grave reprisals against all those who dared to join
the campaign to challenge and defeat the former regime.
As President, Sirisena will lay claim to a degree of protection from
Rajapaksa machinations in the event the ex-President wins the 17 August
election. Those who supported his presidential bid in January, those who
railed against the Rajapaksa juggernaut and secured a brief victory six
months ago, will not be entitled to similar protections.
By accident or design, President Sirisenas decision has managed to expose
and endanger the very people who placed their lives on the line to win him
the presidency in January.
Endangered
This is the truth Sobitha Thero tried to emphasise to President Sirisena
during the crucial meeting last weekend. On Wednesday night, after the
two-day grace period Sirisena had asked the monk for had expired, a
meeting of civil society leaders was summoned at the Presidents Wijerama
Mawatha residence. Sobitha Thero refused to attend the meeting, after
reports emerged confirming that the Rajapaksa nomination from the UPFA
was sealed.
At the meeting, President Sirisenas responses had been vague and wishywashy. But civil society leaders pitched into the President, telling him
openly that they could no longer trust him. Convenor of Purawesi Balaya
(Citizens Power) and academic, Dr. Gamini Viyangoda, had been
particularly forthright.
You say one thing to us, and then you do something entirely different, the
academic charged. You once said that if you had lost the election in
January you would have been six feet underground. Now you will be
standing on top, and we are the ones who will be six feet under, Viyangoda
told the President.
He also predicted that with the new marriage between Sirisena and
Rajapaksa forces, it was clear that it would be President Sirisena in three
years time who would terrify the citizenry with white vans again.
After he had listened to all this admonishment in silence, the President
ultimately admitted at the meeting that he had no control over the UPFA
nomination lists, and that those matters rested entirely in the hands of the

Partys General Secretary, Susil Premajayantha.

The trouble with this argument is that President Sirisena had continuously
provided guarantees to loyalists, civil society backers and even his Prime
Minister, until as late as Thursday (2) night, that Rajapaksa would not be
given a nomination from the UPFA. If he had no control over his General
Secretary, it was unclear to all those recipients of the now broken promises
why President Sirisena felt he was able to provide that assurance until late
last week.
Reports that the President had imposed tough conditions on granting the
nominations to Mahinda Rajapaksa were also misleading after the exPresident won his UPFA nomination from the more populous Kurunegala
District, which will afford him a greater claim to the premiership if the
alliance secures a majority on 17 August.
Worse still, Sirisena was also forced to grant nominations to all but four
members of the ex-Presidents closest allies in the UPFA, making it certain
now that the President who assumed power promising to cleanse the
system of corrupt politicians will be compelled to lead a party fielding
dozens of candidates under investigation about major corruption charges.
A brief deadlock over former President Chandrika Kumaratungas decision
to strike Western Province Chief Minister Prasanna Ranatunga off the
Gampaha District list also failed. The UPFA capitulated to the Rajapaksa
faction on that score within hours, and Kumaratunga took wing to London,
promising to make a statement on the prevailing political situation only
after her return.
Sirisenas weak hand
After months of trying to consolidate his position as Party Leader, facts now
coming to light reveal that President Sirisena had lost complete control of
the SLFP, and by extension the UPFA by Friday afternoon. Given the
weakness of his position within the SLFP, which was laid to bare only postdissolution, it is finally clear why President Sirisena was so desperate to
delay Parliamentary elections.
All along, SLFP stalwarts have been deferential to Sirisena because of his
position as Party Leader and President of the Republic, but they never
intended to be guided by his instructions in making major political decisions
within the party. This became apparent first during the 19th Amendment
saga in Parliament where Sirisena had to fight his own SLFP tooth and nail
to get the constitutional reform enacted. As that struggle in April proved, in
spirit, the SLFP is still led by Mahinda Rajapaksa, and in this nominations
battle too, the former President has prevailed.
By last Friday (3), both Premajayantha and SLFP General Secretary Anura
Priyadarshana Yapa had made their allegiances to the Rajapaksa faction
crystal clear, informing the President that his predecessor could not be
denied a nomination. If President Sirisena did indeed make his approval for

the move conditional, these are conditions that went largely ignored by the
two General Secretaries and candidate Rajapaksa himself.
By granting the former President a nomination from Kurunegala, and
allowing the bulk of his cronies to stand with him, the UPFA has ensured
Rajapaksa will become the de facto leader of its Parliamentary election
campaign and presumptive premier.
Several theories can be floated about President Sirisenas flip-flops on the
question of the Rajapaksa nomination. Aside from a brief flirtation with the
JVP in the 1970s, Maithripala Sirisena has been a true blue SLFPer
throughout his political life. The mantle of SLFP leadership, therefore, was
one he treasured deeply.
For 14 years, he served as the partys General Secretary, staying largely on
the sidelines during the Kumaratunga and Rajapaksa presidencies. For
months after his election as President, Sirisena would often note the crucial
role UNP voters had played in his polls victory, when his own party had
deserted him, and repeatedly emphasised that he could not betray their
trust. But in the end, did the call of his own blue blood prove too strong to
resist?
Sirisena was torn, aides say by the prospect that the SLFP would be split
under his watch. SLFP stalwarts like Premajayantha, who were secretly in
league with the Rajapaksa faction, repeatedly played to this fear.
At their core, analysts say, SLFPers cannot bear the prospect of being
defeated by the UNP. This consideration trumps all others in the psyche of
the party-man, the analysts explain. The SLFP stalwart in Sirisena may have
been desperate to prevent a UNP landslide at all cost, even if it was the
UNP that could ensure the progress of his reforms agenda and guarantee
his presidential legacy.
A President isolated
Another explanation is that Sirisena was telling the truth, and in fact he did
not have control over the UPFA nomination list. The General Secretary is
king in the party bureaucracy, and it was too late for Sirisena to
contemplate the removal of either Premajayantha or Yapa only days ahead
of the nomination deadline.
Senior analysts of Tamil politics draw comparisons with a similar situation
that unfolded during the Northern Provincial Elections in 2013, when ITAK
General Secretary Marvai Senathirajah inserted several candidates on the
party ticket despite the explicit disapproval of TNA Leader R. Sampanthan.
In reality, Senathirajahs position as General Secretary insulated his
decisions about nominations from Sampanthans control, the analysts
explain.
In the case of the UPFA, President Sirisena was even more precariously
placed, because he and the JHU were an insignificant minority in the
alliances 72-member Executive Committee, which makes key decisions on

party matters. Sirisena and the JHU were the only members of the ExCo to
stand firmly against nominations for Mahinda Rajapaksa, but they were
badly outnumbered at last Wednesdays (1) meeting.
Theologians of the Rajapaksa faction believe the ex-Presidents leadership
of the UPFA will allow the party to gain up to 100 seats in the 17 August
election. The Rajapaksa faction will focus on the Central Bank bond scandal
to highlight UNP economic mismanagement and corruption, and use the
impending UN report, expected to be released at the end of August, to whip
up nationalist sentiment that could give the party an edge over the greens
in the poll.
It is learnt that a group of intellectuals backing the Rajapaksa faction have
already begun work on a fake draft of an OHCHR report, highlighting 42
names including that of Mahinda Rajapaksa and former Defence Secretary
Gotabaya Rajapaksa. The architects of this fake leak will seek to match the
language style to previous OHCHR reports submitted to the UN Human
Rights Council in Geneva.
The fake report could be released only a few days ahead of the election, to
mislead voters and whip up mass hysteria about international attempts to
try the former President for war crimes. This is the only vacuum Rajapaksa
ideologues believe the ex-Presidents faction could exploit to win a majority
in the August poll.
UPFA troubles not over
But while the nomination saga is now concluded, the UPFAs troubles are far
from over. The alliance cannot contest as a coherent single entity unless it
is able to shed President Sirisena and his loyalists entirely from the
campaign.
He may have been painted into a corner and forced into making this call,
but it is still unthinkable that President Sirisena could actively support a
campaign calling for the restoration of Mahinda Rajapaksa as Sri Lankas
prime minister. Too much water has flowed underneath that particular
bridge. Furthermore, the decision to grant nominations to all but four of the
most corrupt elements in the former regime will erode public faith in
Sirisenas yahapalanaya mantra and it has given the UNP a moral high
ground to exploit.
With President Sirisena having tacitly endorsed the Rajapaksa candidacy,
true custodianship of the 8 January peoples victory has unofficially passed
on to the UNP. The forces of the 8 January revolution will rally again against
the rise of the Rajapaksas; in that battle, their natural allies will be the UNP
and the JVP.
By making space for Rajapaksas re-entry, President Sirisena has not merely
dashed the hopes of millions who supported his presidential bid in January.
He has also struck a potentially fatal blow to his own presidency. Mahinda
Rajapaksas instalment as Prime Minister could mean the end of the road

for President Sirisena.

In paving the way for a Rajapaksa premiership only six months after he was
roundly defeated for the presidency, President Sirisena has endangered his
supporters, his legacy and probably even his life. In his realist account of
warring ancient kingdoms, George R.R. Martin notes that when you play a
game of thrones, you either win or you die. It is much the same when one
wages war against Mahinda Rajapaksa. There is nothing in between.
Intangible though the benefits may have been, over the past six months Sri
Lanka has flirted briefly again with democracy. Now the counter revolution
has begun.
Can the anti-Rajapaksa forces re-align and mobilise in time? Will the
republic hold firm? Battles between forces of darkness and light do not end
in a single war. On 8 January, the first war was won. The second is only just
beginning.
Posted by Thavam