UNIT 27 CHINA AS AN EMERGING POWER

Structure
27.1 Introduction
27.2 Emergence of Peoples Republic of China
27.3 Post-Cold War World and Uni-polarity
27.3.1 Chinas Military Capability
27.3.2 PLA Modernisation
27.3.3 PLA Structure

27.4 Chinas Economic Strength

27.5 Stability of China
27.6 Summary
27.7 Exercises

27.1 INTRODUCTION
About China, Napoleon had once said: It is a sleeping giant, let it sleep for if it wakes it would
shake the world. Whether Napoleons prophecy has come out to be true or not is a matter
of perception but one thing is certainly true that today Chinas presence is felt the world over.
Political observers and analysts have been discussing and debating on the role of China in
international politics and the status it has among the comity of nations. China has the largest
population in the world, approximately 1.5 billion people, according to the latest official census.
It has the fourth largest territory-Canada, the United States and Russia being the only other
countries bigger in size. It has the biggest land army in the world. Today, its GNP per capita
is second largest and it has maintained a growth rate of about 8 per cent for the last many
years. However, to assess correctly Chinas potential of becoming a super power or even a
great power capable of threatening the only super power in todays world viz. the United States
of America, it is necessary to understand a whole gamut of features and factors about China
which would be done in this Unit

27.2 EMERGENCE OF PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA

China is one of the oldest civilisations on this earth. For several centuries it remained isolated
from the rest of the world as it was self-sufficient in every respect. The Chinese political system
until the year 1911 was dominated by an emperor, who according to the Chinese ruled with the
mandate of heaven. In other words, the emperor was divine, he was son of God. They,
therefore, conducted their international relations in a way which seemed very unusual and
strange to Westerners. All those who established any kind of relations with them had to pay
tribute to the emperor. Foreigners were considered barbarians as the Chinese considered
themselves superior to outsiders. However, traders, monks, scholars and curious travellers had
visited China and many have spent years there. Nonetheless, China remained an enigma to
many foreigners. It was only after Western colonialism began to spread its tentacles that China
was forced to become a part of the international system. After the Opium War of 1840 when
the British, using what is called gunboat diplomacy, got the Chinese to open their ports for
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trade, China had to sign a series of unequal treaties with almost all imperialist powers. These
treaties subjugated China to all European powers and later to Japan too. China remained
politically independent in the sense that no power took away the political sovereignty of China
but economically it was plundered by all-Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and Japan-in different
ways. An overwhelming part of Chinas resources were under the control of the various
imperialist powers. This was a matter of grave concern for all patriotic Chinese as this amounted
to humiliation for the entire nation which was always a proud civilisation.
In the 20th Century, China witnessed far-reaching changes and experienced a massive transition.
First, the monarchy and with it the emperor-system, came to an end in 1911. After that a
cultural renewal movement emerged which brought into existence a communist party. Led by
Mao Zedong, a peasant revolution with the support of a peasant army, brought liberation to
China in 1949. The communists finally defeated their compatriots namely the Nationalists, as
they were known. The latter fled to the island of Taiwan and established the government of the
Republic of China (henceforth ROC). The communists who had the mainland under their
control called it the Peoples Republic of China (henceforth the PRC).
Post-liberation China is chronologically divided into two periods i.e. the Mao period (from 1949
to 1977) and the Reform period (1978 onwards). However, since its birth the PRC has been
an important player in the post-Second World War era. Although up until 1971, the PRC
government was not accepted as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council,
the position was held by the ROC government. Diplomatic recognition by the United States
came only in 1978. That same year the Chinese began to reform their system in the most
dramatic and totally unexpected ways. In less than three decades China has emerged as a big
power in many respects. After the United States and Russia, it is undoubtedly the next powerful
country. However, to grasp the extent of Chinas power it is imperative for us to analyse some
factors. What is it that makes a nation a big power? Is it its military capabilities, its economic
strength or its political stability? In fact, it is all these factors in combination which bestows
a big power status to any country.

27.3 POST-COLD WAR WORLD AND UNI-POLARITY

As is known to all during the period of the Cold War i.e. from the end of Second World War
to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the international scenario was dominated by the two
super powers viz. the United States and the Soviet Union. Most countries of the world were
part of any one of the two blocs. (The Non-aligned countries claimed to belong to no bloc). As
long as the PRC had cordial relations with the Soviet Union i.e. until the early 1960s, it said
that it was part of the Socialist Bloc led by the Soviet Union. In the latter period when its
relations with the Soviet state soured, the PRC claimed that it was part of the Third World
which meant the nations of Asia (minus Japan), Africa and Latin America.
The end of the Cold War created a totally new scenario in the arena of international relations.
The United States is the only super power unchallenged by any. Along with the process of
globalisation that is going on in full strength a completely different world order is emerging and
China is making a valiant effort to have an effective presence in it. From all its policy statements
it is clear that China is opposed to a uni-polar world and supports multi-polarity because it is
opposed to all forms of hegemony. In that sense the PRC poses a challenge to the only super
power-the United States. As Karmel has observed: A more confident but still authoritarian
China-a state that suppresses pluralism, brazenly markets its weapons to pariah states and
aggressively pursues export-led growth strategies is even looked upon by some as a threat to

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the United States. What we would try to see here is that can China be a potential threat to
the United States in the forseeable future.

27.3.1 Chinas Military Capability

It is beyond doubt that Chinas dramatically expanded military might and economic development
make the states of Asia and beyond feel threatened. While it is true that a lot of information
on the Chinese military is not available to the outside world but many studies have been done
on the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) by a number of scholars. In the following
passages we would take up a brief discussion of the PLA to understand and analyse its role
in giving China the status of a big power.
Origins of the PLA
The PLA was formed in the year 1927 when the communists organised the poor peasants in
the remote areas of Southern China. Zhu De and Mao Zedong were the main organisers and
in its early years it was called first the Eighth Route Army and then the New Fourth Army.
The name PLA was given to it after the Japanese attacked China in 1937. In its early years
most of its recruits were poor peasants. The PLA fought the Japanese as well as the Chinese
Nationalists led by Chiang Kai-shek. There are many instances of bravery and courage that the
PLA displayed to bring liberation to China. However, the peasant army used guerrilla tactics
to fight the enemy. Known as Peoples War, all military doctrine as well as strategy and tactics
fell under it. For Chinese communists the term people implied those who supported the CPC
which includes workers, peasants and progressive sections of the middle classes. It had, therefore,
a moral connotation-an army that fights for the people and not a state.
The People War doctrine remained an important component of Chinese communist ideology
even in the post-liberation period as long as Mao Zedong was alive. The Chinese claimed that
even in case of a nuclear war they could defeat the enemy using Peoples War strategy. This
was reinforced by the fact that Chinese did not undertake any massive military modernisation
programme due to the limited resources the state has at its disposal. Apart from Peoples War,
the other principle that was accepted during the struggle for liberation was that of Party
commands the gun, which effectively means civilian control over the military. Having given so
much clout to the military in its struggle to liberate China, the CPC has always been wary of
losing its control over the army. There have been instances in post-liberation China when the
army has been called to intervene in, what many would call a political dispute. To maintain its
supremacy over the PLA, the CPC has a Central Military Commission (CMC, earlier it was
called the Military Affairs Commission) and it is chaired by the most powerful civilian leader.
(At present Jiang Zemin is its Chairman). In 1997, the Chinese National Peoples Congress
(Chinas parliament) passed the National Defence Law in which this Maoist principle of the
Party controlling the gun has been stipulated.

27.3.2 PLA Modernisation

China has the biggest land army in the world. According to the International Institute for
Strategic Studies the total number of troops is 2,840,000 of which the army has 2,090,000
soldiers and the airforce, navy and strategic misile force have 470,000, 280,000 and 125,000
respectively. In addition the Reserves comprise of 1,200,000 men and the Peoples Armed
Police (a paramilitary body) have 800,000.
During the Mao period i.e. up to 1976 with the Peoples War doctrine upheld, a large army was
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perceived as an asset. After Maos death when the CPC decided to modernise its military as
part of the Four Modernisations policy (which later on was called the Reforms under Deng
Xiaoping) an oversized PLA is clearly a liability. This is so because a state needs lots of
resources to maintain so many soldiers as rations, uniforms, housing, healthcare, childrens
education, entertainment etc. has to be provided. Moreover, regular training and exercises are
also necessary to keep the armys morale high. For a nation that has taken up a very ambitious
reforms programme a huge army is an expensive proposition. Troop reduction has therefore
become an important issue for the Chinese at present. It has been officially announced that the
number of troops would be reduced gradually and brought down to 2.5 million.
Since Reforms were initiated under Deng Xiaopings leadership, changes have occurred in the
military doctrine. Deng Xiaoping talked about and then theorised the concept of Peoples War
under Modern Conditions which gave the ideological justification for modernising the PLA.
Deng realised that without professionalising the army and modernising the weaponry, Chinas
goal of becoming a developed country would be unachievable. Peoples War under modern
conditions meant that in the event of a war guerrilla tactics would be first used against the
enemy which would be drawn into Chinese territory and later it would be attacked with modern
weaponry. Trapped inside Chinese territory it would not get an escape route and this would
make it either surrender or perish. This theory, however, did have a flaw. Once into Chinese
territory the enemy may destroy very important economic installations (factories, oil refineries,
air ports, bridges etc.) which would put the economic development programme in jeopardy.
After the Gulf War (1991), this concept was not much publicised mainly because this war was
fought decisively by the air force with no role for the army. In other words, it was clear to the
military planners of China that in this day and age superior technology matters. This not only
led to more stress on the technological advancement of the PLA but also brought about new
thinking encapsulated in the doctrine of Modern Warfare under Hi-tech Conditions.

27.3.3 PLA Structure

The PLA land forces are divided into seven military regions namely Beijing, Shenyang, Lanzhou,
Jinan, Nanjing, Guangzhou, and Chengdu. No one knows how many soldiers are there in each
of these regions. It is, however, interesting to note that Chinas ground forces are not at all
towards any national border or potential battlefront. The army is intended more for maintaining
internal order engage in construction and relief activities and perform mainly domestic functions.
It is estimated that as many as one million troops are stationed in Xinjiang (Sinkiang) province
which has seen terrorist activities grow in the last few years. However, according to another
source 80,000 soldiers are stationed in the coastal Fujian province, probably to be engaged in
a cross-strait military conflict, should it occur. Here it needs to be mentioned that gaining control
over the province of Taiwan has been the most crucial of Chinas policies.
Chinas navy is divided into East, South and North China Sea fleets. Since the Reforms which
led to a policy of Open Door, Chinas coastal areas have prospered far more than the interior.
This has led to a new emphasis on the navy. However, this emphasis is also due to the
perception of the importance of the sea as a strategic resource and battleground. As Deng
Xiaoping had stated: Navies in the present era create great power, strong mobility, and the
capacity for worldwide intervention. In modern warfare, more than before navies are of substantial
significance; their technological foundation, their position and use are increasingly prominent and
important. The Chinese navy can be broken down by function into five categories: warship,
submarine, marine, naval aviation and coastal defence force. Coastal defence forces are believed
to have 29,000 soldiers, the marine corp of around 5,000 and the naval air force approximately
25,000. In late 1985, the Naval Military Academic Research Institute was established to coordinate
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and provide research and analysis for the formulation of naval strategy, operations and tactics.
Modernisation of the navy has been undertaken rather seriously in the last two decades but
military analysts feel that it continues to face some crippling weaknesses. It has, for instance,
too many old ships which need to be replaced by new ones with advanced technology. It is said
that the bulk of Chinas naval ships are aging and in the process of going out of use. Key
equipment and ordnance for naval modernisation also appear to be beyond Chinas reach both
technologically and financially. The country has expressed its ambition to have blue water navy
but most analysts feel that China is decades away from it. As far as naval ordnance is
concerned, China remains well behind the United States, Russia and Japan.
The Peoples Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) could not grow in the pre-reform period as
the Peoples war doctrine was extremely inhibiting. The air force is a capital-intensive branch
of the armed forces which in order to be effective relies almost entirely on modern logistics,
high technology, advanced and consistent training, and developed command and control systems.
The present leaders of China do agree that the air force is the most important branch in a
modernised defence establishment. Like the navy, the Chinese air force is third largest in the
world in terms of the size of its inventory. It may have more than 6,000 planes. Most of these
planes, however, may be operational. The apparently huge size of Chinas outdated air force
suggests that the emphasis is still on quantity rather than quality. Of course efforts are on to
improve quality as is indicated by new purchases and development programmes and formation
of elite air force units. However, China is struggling to develop these elite units that require to
be trained to employ the newest hardware it is acquiring. The figures regarding how much
China spends on its air force are not available but it is believed that the air force comprises an
increasing per centage of Chinas overall defence spending.
In addition to the army, navy and air force, the fourth branch of Chinas defence system is its
missile force or Second Artillery. It is well known that maintenance of a missile force requires
the services of a very well trained group of scientists and technicians. China exploded its first
atom bomb in 1964, and in 1967, its first hydrogen bomb was tested. Since then it has conducted
several nuclear tests. Between 1956 and 1981, China developed its first generation of ballistic
missiles. Chinas strategic doctrine on the development of missiles and nuclear bombs appears
shrewd and realistic in comparison with its doctrines on the air force and navy. The development
of a powerful nuclear missile is a very effective way to maintain a massive deterrent against
super power attack. Throughout the reform period the military strategists of China have
emphasised the importance of missiles in modern warfare.
Despite possessing laser guns, brilliant bombs, stealth fighter planes and nearly silent submarines,
China has many technical, economic and political obstacles in implementing a new strategy. As
one author has remarked: Even if China develops the technical and economic capacity to
promote military modernisation more quickly, leaders are afraid that a shift away from the rank
and file and toward these high-tech goods might cause the Party to lose control over the gun.
In other words, an oversized army and a not completely modernised navy and air force prevent
the Chinese from posing a major threat to bigger powers like the United States and Russia.

27.4 CHINAS ECONOMIC STRENGTH

As is well-accepted, sheer military prowess does not make a nation a major power. A nations
economic resilience is also an extremely important criterion to judge how important a role it can play
in international affairs. The United States is the super power of this era because of a combination
of its military power, economic strength and domestic political stability. The former Soviet Union
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did have enormous military prowess but could not maintain its economic strength, and politically,
it is clear in retrospect, it was a very fragile nation-state. Hence when we assess the power
of a state we must take into account the all-round capabilities and not just one criterion.
In the year 2001, Chinas Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stood at US$ 1.1 trillion and the
average growth rate registered in the past twenty years has been 9 per cent. Indias current
GDP is around US $ 450 billion i.e. less than half of Chinas. Chinas foreign exchange reserves
exceeded US $ 216 billion in 2001. Since its membership of the World Trade Organisation
(WTO), the Chinese government is using it as a trigger to implement far-reaching and radical
reforms to globalise the economy. It is expected that by the year 2020, Chinas economy could
be worth US $10 trillion. In the last thirty years, China has sustained investment rates of over
35 per cent of GDP. In contrast, Indias rate of investment peaked at 26 per cent in 1996 and
has since declined to about 22 per cent in 2001. China sustains high rate of investment by high
rates of domestic savings of around 40 per cent. In the 1980s, its population policy of one-child
family has decreased the dependency ratio and raised the savings rate substantially. High
savings have been invested in infra-structure and education to create the supporting environment
for mass scale production.
Huge investments in infrastructure have created a national power grid with ample generating
capacity, a national telecom system with the largest mobile network in the world and a national
aviation system. In the last twelve years China has built over 19,000 kilometres of expressways
and adds 3000 kilometres each year. India is still below the 1000 km mark in expressways.
Urbanisation is taking place in China at a rapid pace as the belief is that economic development
is basically about moving people from villages to cities. Urban productivity is four times of rural
productivity. China is building around ten huge new cities that will house over ten million people
each.
Human capital formation is also one area China is working on. In the last twenty years there
has been tremendous progress. College enrolment in the 1980s was about 1.5 per cent of the
total population. At present the enrolment ratio is 11 per cent which means that it has gone up
by more than five times in about a decade. Nine-year education is universal. In most villages
there is at least one nine-year secondary school. At the high school level i.e. the twelve year
school the numbers enrolled are about seventy per cent of those leaving secondary school. Rural
families are still reluctant to send their children to high school. About 11 per cent of high school
graduates go in for tertiary (or college) education. This is remarkable in contrast with Chinas
past and that of most other developing countries but if we compare it with that of the US and
Europe, it is 50 per cent and 40 per cent respectively. China, therefore, is way behind. The share
of public education expenditure in the GDP has been declining in the last twenty years. Families
have mainly borne the burden of their childs education.
Compared with India, most of the figures for China are impressive but in comparison with many
other Asian states China still has a long way to go. Even after twenty years of rapid economic
growth China is still considered a poor country. Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia have
given their people a higher living standard than China has to its people. Moreover rapid growth
has, on the one hand, enlivened the stagnant economy of the 1960s and 1970s but on the other,
has led to a host of problems which China is grappling with. From one of the most egalitarian
societies in the world it has become the most unequal in its distribution of income, wealth and
opportunity. The disparities between the wealthy and the poor have increased massively. Apart
from this there are various other problems that have resulted as a consequence of the reforms
that began in the late 1970s. These issues if not properly addressed may lead to major crises
in Chinese society. This indicates that there are question marks on the prospective social stability
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of China. No nation can achieve a major power status unless it has domestic peace and stability.
This brings us to the next criterion to judge Chinas big power status viz. political and social
stability.

27.5 STABILITY OF CHINA

This is a question that is being frequently asked by many scholars observing the growth of
China. Being a big country China can perhaps absorb and neutralise many crises before it goes
beyond control. Nonetheless, many important issues have arisen in the last two decades which
need to be addressed in such a way that China is able to sustain economic growth without any
major dislocation to its social system. The primary objective of the reforms undertaken since
1978 is to strengthen Chinas international position while retaining the authority of the Party. The
results of the reforms include: glaring regional imbalances, noticeable sectoral imbalance,
insurmountable ecological and environmental problems, exacerbated rural-urban divide, adverse
impact on minorities, women, the elderly, the disabled and so on. Reforms may have brought
more wealth to Chinese society but its distribution has not been balanced. Three important
sections of Chinese society viz. workers, peasants and intellectuals have been affected by the
reforms in a variety of ways. In the following section we discuss these.
Reform of the State-Owned-Enterprises (SOEs) has been a crucial part of reforms in the urban
sector on the workers. This is having a noticeable negative impact. During the pre-reform
(Maoist period), the SOE workers were a rather privileged group with guaranteed employment,
social security, pension benefits etc., and received cradle-to-grave services from their work
units. The SOE reforms have worker-retrenchment at its core. In the last decade more than
14 million workers have been laid off. Veteran permanent workers and retirees find their
employment security, welfare benefits etc. in jeopardy. The working class is facing drastic
dislocation. The total number of destitute workers nation-wide is estimated at 20 million. The
newly emerging private sector and multi-national corporations together are in no position to
absorb all workers who have lost their jobs. As a result resistance-both passive and active-has
become visible and in the last few years many cases of violent workers protests have been
reported. Strikes as well as other methods of agitation have been followed to get the state to
hear their voices. However, superior organisational force of the state has been able to forestall
any major outbreak of violence. How long the state would be able to do so is a question many
ask.
Reforms have led to rural discontent in several parts of China where peasants have expressed
their anger often violently. Among the reasons for peasant unrest are high taxes, lowering of
grain prices, losing land for industrialisation, pollution due to new factories, cultural and social
conflicts (for example, the state supports cremation of the dead but the custom is burial),
corruption of officials and their abusive behaviour with peasants. Peasant protests have taken
a variety of forms: petitions, demonstrations, violent fights between peasants and Party cadres,
riots, damaging state property, road blocks, holding officials captive, killing of cadres or police.
Waves of peasant unrest occur in certain villages of different provinces and subside after some
time. These are mostly spontaneous, short-lived and not well organised. More often than not the
target of these protests is not the state or the central government but the local officials and local
government. All forms of violence are swiftly curbed and sometimes proper corrective measures
are taken to pacify the peasants. For some period of time the regime may succeed in containing
the unrest in the countryside but a real threat to it may appear in the event of rural protest
movements linking up with their urban counterparts.
The creation of a market economy and opening to the outside world gave intellectuals and the
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students of China, for the first time in the PRC, alternatives to government employment, either
in the professions, non-state enterprises, foreign-joint ventures, or their own businesses, providing
a degree of economic independence which gives them some protection from political retaliation.
Equally significant is the fact that intellectuals can remain totally distant from political participation
if they so desire. The party-state tolerates and even encourages an apolitical culture so that
intellectuals stay away from politics. Towards the end of the Century one witnessed different
intellectual currents in China. Highly placed academics called for more political reforms. Many
demanded civil and political rights along with economic rights. They believe that economic
reforms cannot be sustained without political reforms and the only way to deal with rising
unemployment, widening income gaps, pollution and corruption is to develop democracy. A
group which tried to form a political party to challenge the Communist Party of China was
quickly repressed with all its leaders arrested.
The Chinese regime does not face any major or imminent threat from any of these groupsworkers, peasants, and intellectuals-in the forseeable future. Nonetheless, there is an apprehension
that an alliance between the three or even two of these may be potent enough to challenge the
regime leading to chaos and instability. There is some evidence of underground alliances between
workers groups and disgruntled intellectuals and if they consolidate and come out in the open
and a movement resembling that of Solidarity in the Poland of the 1980s, emerges on the scene
then it certainly does not augur well for the Chinese regime. In such an eventuality Chinas
international image would also be negatively affected and if it has any big power ambitions that
too would receive a setback. However, a positive scenario can also emerge. Genuine political
reforms may take place which could create viable political institutions, lead to the rule of law,
give China an independent judiciary, a free press and autonomous unions. Without a major
upheaval if China becomes more open and democratic, its path to becoming a great power
would be less difficult to tread.

27.6 SUMMARY
The debate regarding Chinas great power status has had a variety of interpretations. According
to some scholars, China is a struggling developing country with high ambitions. To others, China
is a rising or an emerging power which may, in the future, be powerful enough to threaten the
United States, the way the Soviet Union did during the Cold War. But we all know retrospectively
that the Soviet Union was internally a weak nation-state or else it would not have crumbled so
easily. The fate of the Soviet Union also teaches us that a mere military might is not a sufficient
condition for big power status; it may be a necessary condition, if at all. Japan is considered
an economic super power and plays an important role in world affairs but does not have a
standing army.
China has always opposed the hegemony of super powers. It has never expressed the desire
of becoming a super power or even a big power. China has, therefore, supported a multi-polar
world which will not be dominated by one super power. In this multi-polar world it wants to see
itself as playing a crucial role.
China has resented the fact that other nations, mainly in the Asian region, talk of a China
threat either directly or in a veiled form. This is being done to maintain unipolarity and prevent
China from initiating the process of creating a multi-polar world and more importantly to prevent
China from becoming a developed country, the Chinese believe. China has played a key role
in the formation of the Shanghai Five and signed with the four countries, Russia, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikstan, a treaty in 1996 which it called the first multi-lateral treaty to build
confidence in the Asia-Pacific region. It is believed that Chinas main aim in having close
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cooperation with the Central Asian countries is to have access to the energy supplies which
China needs for its economic development programme.
With Russia, China has developed what is called a strategic partnership in the last few years.
This is of vital importance to the PRC as it permits the PRC to security concerns to its east
and south and provides access to weapons which it can neither produce itself nor purchase
elsewhere. Most importantly it complicates the American attempts to isolate China on matters
such as arms control, the inviolability of national sovereignty and Taiwan. The Chinese have
often stated and worked towards expanding this strategic partnership to a strategic triangle
in which along with Russia, India too would be a member. Some discussions at various levels
have been going on towards this direction but Indias enthusiasm for this has not been much.
This triangle would be very clearly some kind of a counter to the United States which has
become the sole super power. Such attempts by the Chinese clearly indicate the PRCs sense
of insecurity and self-perception that in the near future it cannot take on the United States.
Yet one more factor that is indicative of Chinas weakness vis-a-vis the US is the Taiwan issue.
Taiwan is a province which was part of China since time immemorial. In 1949 when mainland
China was liberated, the Jiang Kai-shek regime with American support settled there and since
then the Communist Chinese have been claiming the island as part of their territory. Ideologically,
the liberation of China is not complete without Taiwan. In the last fifty years tension has
developed a few times on the Taiwan Straits but has not led to war. Unification with Taiwan
has been a pronounced objective of the PRC government as evident from all their documents,
resolutions, statements, policy papers etc. China has said that it would prefer a peaceful and
negotiated settlement of the Taiwan issue but it does not rule out the possibility of using force.
This statement is seen by observers as public posturing as China knows any attempt to forcibly
take over Taiwan may have frightening consequences not just for China but the entire region
or may be even the whole world. China will not achieve big power status till it is able to get
the Taiwan dispute resolved in its favour.
At present China is completely involved in developing its economy. The underlying belief is that
once it achieves a certain level of development, its military might would increase and political
stability would be consolidated. At that point, it would be in a position to be considered a super
power, although by then, the US, Russia and other nations may also become more powerful.
Also, we cannot ignore the point made above that speedy economic growth may lead to political
instability. China often behaves in such a way that others see a China threat. However, these
are signs of weakness and insecurity. Once China becomes politically and economically resilient,
it would cease to make others feel threatened.

27.7 EXERCISES
1. Explain the structure of the PLA of China.
2. Describe Chinas economic strength.
3. What is Chinas position in the post-Cold War unipolar world?
4. What is your assessment of China emerging as a super power in the future?

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