ASSIGNMENT( BAYES THEOREM)

1. A manufacturing firm produces steel pipes in three

plants with daily production volume of 500, 1000
and 2000 units respectively. According to past
experience it is known that the fraction of defective
output produced by the three plants are
respectively 0.005, 0.008 and 0.010. If a pipe is
selected from a days total production and found to
be defective.
(i) Find out from which plant the pipe came.
(ii) What is the probability that it came from the
first plant?
2. A company has two plants to manufacture
scooters. Plant I manufactures 80% of the scooters
and plant II manufactures 20%. At plant I, 85 out of
100 scooters are rated standard quality or better.
At plant II only 65 out of 100 scooters are rated
standard quality or better.
(a) What is the probability that the scooter
selected at random came from plant I if it is
known that the scooter is of standard quality?
(b) What is the probability that the scooter
selected at random came from plant II if it is
known that the scooter is of standard quality?
3. Each of the three the same jewellery boxes has 2
drawers. In each drawer of the first box there is a
gold watch. In each drawer of the second box there
is a silver watch. In one drawer of the third box
there is a gold watch while in the other drawer
there is a silver watch. If we select a box at
random, open one of the drawers and find it to
contain a silver watch , what is the probability that
the other drawer has the gold watch?

ASSIGNMENT (RANDOM VARIABLE)

1. The probability that there is at least one error in an
account statement prepared by A is 0.2 and for B
and C they are 0.25 and 0.4 respectively. Find the
expected number of correct statements in all.
2. If four unbiased coins are tossed, find the
expectation and variance of the number of heads.
3. A man has the choice of running either a hot- snack
stall or an ice-cream stall at a sea side resort during
the summer season. If it is a fairly cool summer he
should make Rs. 5000 by running the hot snack
stall, but if the summer is quite hot he can only
expect to make Rs. 1000. On the other hand if he
operates the ice-cream stall, his profit is estimated
at Rs. 6,500, if the summer is hot, but only Rs.
1000 if it is cool. There is a 40 per cent chance of
the summer being hot. Should he opt for running
the hot-snack stall or the ice-cream stall? Give
mathematical arguments?
4. A firm plans to bid Rs. 300 per tonne for a contract
to supply 1,000 tonnes of a metal. It has two
competitors A and B and it assumes that the
probability that A will bid less than Rs. 300 per
tonne is 0.3 and that B will bid less than Rs. 300
per tonne is 0.7. If the lowest bidder gets all the
business and the firms bid independently, what is
the expected value of the contract to the firm?
5. The monthly demand for transistors is known to
have the following probability distribution:

Demand(X): 1
2
3
4
5
6
Prob(P)
: 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.18 0.12
Determine the expected demand for transistors.
Also obtain the variance. Suppose that the cost (C0
of producing x transistors is given by the rule , C=
10,000 + 500*x. Determine the expected cost.