Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
The information contained herein is being furnished for discussion purposes only and may be subject to completion or
amendment through the delivery of additional documentation. This communication does not constitute an offer to sell or
the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security, future or other financial instrument or product. Information is
presented as of the date and, if applicable, time indicated. Banque AIG does not accept any responsibility for updating
any such information. Any projections, valuations and statistical analyses contained herein have been provided to assist
the recipient in the evaluation of the matters described herein; such projections, valuations and analyses may be based
on subjective assessments and assumptions and may utilize one among alternative methodologies that produce differing
results; accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses are not to be viewed as facts and should not be
relied upon as an accurate representation of future events. Any historical or simulated results presented herein should
not and cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.
Any market views or opinions expressed herein are those of the individual sender, except where such views or opinions
are expressly attributed to Banque AIG or a named individual. Market views and opinions are current opinions only;
Banque AIG and the individual sender accept no responsibility to update such views and opinions or to notify the recipient
when they have changed. Banque AIG and its affiliates, officers, directors and employees may from time to time have
long or short positions in, buy or sell (on a principal basis or otherwise), or act as market maker in, the securities, futures
or other financial instruments or products mentioned herein.
Banque AIG is not an adviser as to legal, taxation, accounting, regulatory or financial matters in any jurisdiction, does not
act as fiduciary or financial, investment or commodities trading advisor for any of its counterparties, and is not providing
any advice as to any such matter to the recipient. The recipient should discuss such matters with the recipients advisers
or counsel and make an independent evaluation and judgment with respect to them.
Banque AIG is authorized by the Banque de France, and is regulated by the Comit des tablissements de crdit et des
enterprises dinvestissement, the Commission Bancaire and the Autorit des marchs financiers, in France; is authorized
and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the United Kingdom; and is authorized and regulated by the Financial
Services Agency in Japan. If this communication relates to a particular type of investment, activity or service made
available from or through the head office or the London branch of Banque AIG, it will only be made available to eligible
counterparties and professional clients as defined in the EU Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID), and
persons who are retail clients should neither act nor rely upon the information contained herein.
The treaty says that government should have the same credit
status as private sector borrowers.
bp
400
300
200
100
0
Italy
Greece
Portugal
Dec-07
Dec-06
Dec-05
Dec-04
Dec-03
Dec-02
Dec-01
Dec-00
Dec-99
Dec-98
Dec-97
Dec-96
Dec-95
Dec-94
Dec-93
Dec-92
-100
Spain
Source: Bloomberg
% 40
30
20
10
0
USA 2007
(Dollars)
Ireland 2009 f
Greece 2009 f
Spain 2009 f
France 2009 f
Italy 2009 f
Source: Eurostat
Obstfeld and Rogoff saw a need for perhaps a 65% real effective
exchange rate move for the US if current account adjustment
were sudden (e.g., after a housing collapse).
-- Greece:
94%
-- Spain:
55%
-- Portugal
36%
-- Italy:
9%
-- France
15%
10
11