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Pakistan
A THESIS SUBMITTED TO
THE PUNJAB COLLEGE OF COMMERECE
(UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL PUNJAB)
IN FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT
FOR THE DEGREE
MASTERS IN COMMERCE (ACCOUNTING & FINANCE)
BY
Ammar Shehzad
0067
Supervisor: Faisal Abbas
_______________
Principal
Date:__________________
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Research Supervisor:______________________
Certificate of Examination
Certified that quantum and quality of the research work contained in the thesis determinants of
profitability of banks in Pakistan adequate for the award of degree of Masters of Commerce.
Signature:______________
Name:_________________
Name:_________________
Date:__________________
Date:__________________
Principal:
Signature:______________
Name:_________________
Date:__________________
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Declaration:
I, Ammar ShehzadReg No S4F12MCOM0067, Student of masters of commerce during the
session of 2012-2014, hereby declare that the matter printed in the dissertation titled
Determinants of profitability of banks in Pakistan is my own work and has not been
printed, published and submitted as research work in any form in any university, research
institute etc in Pakistan or Abroad.
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Dedication:
I would like to dedicate this report to my dear parents and respected teachers who guided me
through my studying carrier and still doing their best for me. To be here in this institution at this
level I am just because of my parents, especially their training, guidance, love, affection and
motivation. I pray that I can serve my parents as best as I can.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
First of all I am very thankful to Almighty ALLAH who gave me courage and confidence to
making this dissertation. I am also thankful to respected Sir Faisal &Sir Irfan Saad in the UCP
campus sargodha, who gave me chance and opportunity to make such a professional project, in
which I analyze the entire scenario regarding food industry. They have been a steady source of
track throughout the course of this whole internship. Their innumerable ideas were precious and
gave me with an insight to the path, which was off the beaten track otherwise. I have yet to see the
limits of their sympathetic, stamina and altruistic concerns for me. I am especially thankful to my
parents and friends for giving me the silent support in terms of courage and strength that I needed
to accomplish my goals. Words might not be adequate to express my feelings towards them.
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Abbreviations list
OLS
LRM
ROA
return on asset
ROE
return on equity
TLTA
AQR
CATA
LR
KSE
SBP
PROB
GDP
probability
gross domestic product
COEF
coefficient
STD ERR
standard error
ADJ
adjusted
OBS
observation
LOG
logarithm
CONS
constant
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Title
FRONT COVER
RESEARCH COMPLETION CERTIFICATE
CERTIFICATE OF EXAMINERS
DECLARATOION
DEDICATION
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
TABLE OF CONTENT
ABSTRACT
Chapter I Introduction
Introduction
1.1 History of Banking sector of Pakistan
1.2 Performance of banks
1.3 Objectives
1.4 Problem statement
1.5 Significance of study
Page
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VIII
IX
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9
18
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30
30
32
33
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35
36
38
Abstract
The major aim of the study is to find out the determinants of the profitability of banks in
Pakistan. Secondary data on financial reports is collected from 29 banks of Pakistan for the
period 2007 to 2011.The study is quantitative in nature. Number of observations in this study are
145 . Ordinary least square regression has been adopted in this study.This paper is about
Pakistani
profitability of banks.Two equation has been developed for this study .In ist equation Return on
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Equity ratio has been taken as dependent variable, whereas Total Liability toTotal Asset, asset
quality ratio ,Current asset to Total Asset, Taxes , and liquidity ratio have been taken as
independent variables While in 2nd equation Return on Asset has been taken as dependent
variable while ,current ratio, total liability to total asset ,asset quality ratio ,current asset to total
asset, taxes and liquidity are taken as independent variables.
Key words
quality ratio
1. Chapter 1
Introduction
1.1 History of Banking Sector of PAKISTAN
As a country's banking sector no doubt plays a significant role in enhancing economic activities
and economic development in general, the failure of its performance has proven to bring about a
devastating impact on the economy at large. Recent economic evolutions associated with recent
economic crisis sourced primarily from the global banking sector stand clear in one's mind for
proof. In response to the crisis, banking sectors across the globe have come under tight scrutiny
by statutory regulations that were often criticized for having a negative impact on banks'
performance and profitability. This has in return provoked a number of studies focusing on
analyzing banks performance that is widely seen in banking performance analysis literature to
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have been influenced by a range of internal variables (called also bank-specific variables) and
external variables including those related to the financial market structure in which banks operate
as well as the broader macroeconomic indicators. Financial sector has a precious role in the
economic development of any country. As banking sector is part of financial sector so banking
sector of any country should be sound and well working for economic development. Banks help
many other sectors of the economy through different ways such as becoming source of finance,
giving facility of payments settlement and aiding to various parts of economy to export and
import their product etc. Banking sector of Pakistan includes both local, foreign banks and
Islamic banks. There are some specialized and public sector banks also functioning in Pakistan.
Banking sector of Pakistan has witnessed a huge change in terms of growth and development
during the period of 64 years. After the independence, banking sector of Pakistan faced shortage
of resources and uncertainty because of political and various other problems.
1.2Performance of Banks
To form financial sector of Pakistan the state bank of Pakistan was came into view on Ist July
1948 as central bank of the country. After this through SBP ACT 1956 regulatory and different
amendments were formed for the purpose of development of banking sector. In 1974
nationalization of almost private banks was done by government and this nationalization
crumbled the operation of banking sector due to bad quality of banking products and services. In
the decade of 1990s banks were once more privatized under the reform policy of banking sector.
Now forty banks were working all over Pakistan by the end of June 2010 according to report of
state bank of Pakistan and out of these forty banks only four banks are owned by public sector
and their total number of branches were one thousand six hundred and twenty one only. Total
numbers of local private banks were twenty five and their total numbers of branches were six
thousand eight hundred and fifty only. Moreover total numbers of foreign banks were seven and
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their total numbers of branches were eighty. Specialized banks were four having five hundred
and thirty six branches. All statistics given above have been taken from state bank of Pakistan.
Pakistani banking sector has shown significant growth in recent financial years. Since 1980 total
assets of banking have been increasing fastly despite immense problems to banking sector.
Table 1
Table.1 is representing the data of total assets of all commercial banks of Pakistan from 2000
2010 at glance. In 2000 the total number of assets owned by all commercial banks were
2,637,176 in millions and now in 2010 the assets owned by commercial banks have increased up
to 11,704,800 witnessing a growth almost 343 percent growth over last ten financial years.
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Figure.1 is the representation of assets of all commercial banks over the last ten years. Despite
world recession in 2008 the banking sector of Pakistan suffered less as compare to other sectors
of economy and after a minor setback in 2008, the banking industry again witnessed growing
trend in assets.
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Table.2 is the tabulated representation of growth in assets of commercial banks yearly and figure
depiction of yearly growth of assets of commercial banks. Highest growth in assets of
commercial banks was observed in 2006 over the last ten years as cleared from table.2 and
figure.2
The tendency of banking sector of Pakistan over the last few years was towards introduction and
betterment of Islamic banking, privatization, competition, deregulation and mergers. Such sorts
of changes in the sector have increased scope of competition and choices for consumers have
also been increased. The changes mentioned posed greater challenges to banking sector of
Pakistan because these rapid changes in operating environment ultimately affected the
performance of banks. However, irrespective of such considerable changes in structure and
substantial increase in competition, the banking sector of Pakistan had been remained under
research to bring innovation, betterment in service and improved quality of product.The banking
sector is well thought-out to be an important source of financing for most businesses. The
common assumption, which underpins much of the financial performance research and
discussion, is that increasing financial performance will lead to improved functions and actions
of the Organizations. The subject of financial concert and research into its measurement is well
advanced within finance and management fields. It can be argued that there are three principal
factors to improve financial performance for financial institutions; the institution size, its asset
management, and last one the operational efficiency.The major reforms started in banking sector
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of Pakistan in earlier 1990s. As the basic purpose of these reforms was to bring such change that
could make them efficient and sound. Following major changes occurred due to reforms in the
banking sector. Privatization of banks brought significant betterment in the quality of service
through professionalism. Secondly, due to lack of innovative products and poor quality of service
during nationalism era, banks were losing substantial part of profit to foreign banks. Privatization
witnessed huge upward trend in profits due to more innovative product.
A lot of researches has been done on the profitability of banks . Endogenous factors and
exogenous factors have lot affect on the banks profitability. Endogenous factors are altered by
the commercial activities and exogenous factors are affected by the variations in central banks
policies, Government. The internal factors can be called as bank specific determinants of
profitability and are related with the decisions and workings of the banks management. The
external factors can be named as industry specific and macroeconomic determinants of
profitability, and are not influenced by managements decisions and activities; but they expresses
the impact of legal and economic environment that has influence on the performance and profits
of a particular bank.It has been concluded from various studies that internal factors along with
external factors explicate a large proportion of bank profitability . but the links among these
factors cannot be same everywhere . Relationships between these factors are dissent across
countries.because of the occurrence of this dissent more research is required to investigate the
relationship among these factors.The following study uses panel data to study profitability of
banks in Pakistan because the banking system in Pakistan has faced many
technological
improvements like the introduction of ATM, Credit Cards, Online Banking, and Privatization
overtime. So in order to represent any rapid increased profitability that may take place overtime
as technological amendments that are done in the banking industry, we will have to use time
series data besides
technological improvements from other factors. In effect, the panel data set grants us to study
both the changes in profits of a single bank over time and the variation in profits of whole
banking industry at a given point in time.
The banking industry in overall has faced some intense changes in recent decades, as new
additions in technology and the relentless forces driving globalization continue to create both
chances for development and challenges for banking managers to remain profitable in this
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profitability, but some of the methods used by these studies doesnt get right to take into account
the strong and dynamic nature of the economic environment in which they competed.
Pakistans banking sector has also faced some significant changings, and has earned a rapid
development. In Pakistans economy, commercial banks consider a outstanding position for
being a primary source of institutional credit in the economy. They make the hub of the
Pakistans financial system, as they symbolize the largest deposit institutions of the country, and
act as the primary sources of short term funding in the economy.In banking terms, the
determinants of profitability are well noticed and diagnosed but the definition of profitability
alters in many researches . In past, researchers have strived to find out the determinants of
profitability for banking sector, some researchers meditated only the banking characteristics,
whereas others involved the financial structure and macroeconomic factors as well.The banks
are now facing many challenges such as rapid changes in technology required for modern
banking, tight prudential values , increasing competition, worrying level of NPA.s, increasing
customer expectations, rising pressure on profitability, assets-liability management, liquidity and
credit risk management, rising operating expenses, shortening size of spread and so on. The
amendments in banking sector have also brought the profitability under pressure. RBI.s efforts to
adopt international banking standards have further forced the banks to shift the focus to
profitability for survival.
Indeed, consolidation among banks, rising competition and continuous innovation to provide
financial services, all contribute to a growing interest in a detailed critical evaluation of banks. In
fact, evaluating the performance of banks is essential for managerial as well as regulatory
purposes. While managers are keen to determine the outcomes of previous management
decisions, bank regulators concerned about the safety and soundness of the banking system and
with preserving public confidence, monitor banks performance to identify banks that are
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insurers has achieved the significance in the corporate finance literature because as mediators ,
these companies are not only providing the method of risk transfer, but also helps to channelize
the funds in an suitable way to hold up the business actions in the economy. However, it has
established little concentration mainly in developing economies (Ahmed et al, 2011)
One of the major determinants of a banks profitability is its capital structure. In this respect, the
empirical literature devoted to the analysis of a banks profitability has mostly given importance
to a monotonic linear relationship among the banks capital structure and its working (Chaudhry
et al., 1995, Goddard et al., 2004, Molyneux and Thornton, 1992).Regulators and supervisory
entities that set minimums for equity capital, and establish other types of regulations in order to
deter excessive risk taking, can affect the banks capital structure decisions, and hence its
earnings. The regulators establish the conditions of entry to the banking industry, the compliance
with the capital ratios and liquidity rules, the enforcement of the larger exposure rules in the
foreign exchange market, and the right of inspection (Valdez, 2007).Nienhaus (1983) tried tolink
the profitability of Islamic banks with the market structure. Based on his simplisticequilibrium
model, he postulated that the profit-sharing ratio (the percentage of profit paid bythe
entrepreneur) of Islamic banks was positively related to the lending rate of theconventional
banks.Hassan and Bashir (2003) studied the effects ofproscribed and uncontrolled variables on
Islamic banks profitability. While factors such ascapital, overhead, gross domestic product and
conventional interest rates were confidentlyrelated to profitability; loan ratios, reserves taxes,
and size were adversely related.
According to Athanasoglou and his colleagues (2005),these studies were seminal in
demonstrating the feasibility of conducting a meaningful analysis of the determinants of bank
profitability, but some of the methods used by these studies failed to take into account the robust
and dynamic nature of the economic environment in which they competed. Berger and Deyoung
(2006) emphasize that, Banks have embraced substantial advances in both physical and
financial technologies during the past two decades, andthe broader industry category of which
banking is a part, Depository and Non depository Financial Institutions, is the most information
technology-intensive industry in the United States (p. 1483).Saira Javaid et.al (2011) Bank size
or total assets does not lead any profitability of commercial banks but equity and deposits have a
significant influence on the profitability of commercial banks. The globalization of
operationsand development of new technologies is taking place at a rapid pace. A paradigm shift
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in marketing philosophy of banks is visible from the rising focus towards quality of service for
customers. All this hasled to the increase in resource productivity, increasing level of deposits,
credits and profitability and decrease in non-performing assets (Charan Singh-2005).
Panayiotis et al.(2005), Naceur and Goaied (2001; 2003) among others, showed that both
external as well as domestic factors have contributed to growth in performance of SSA banks in
the last two decades. Levine during his studies determined that If a financial system is
economical, it should show betterments in profitability, enhancing the volume of funds flowing
from saver to borrowers, and better quality services for consumers. The financial intermediation
given by the banking sector supports economic acceleration by converting deposits into
productive investments (Levine et al., 2000).They terminated that Banks mainly relies on
competitive marketing strategy that ascertains their success and growth. The modalities of the
banking business have altered a lot in the new millennium compared to the way they were in the
years bygone (Hussain and Bhatti, 2010.Dependent variable is usually used in the study analysis
of bank profits is a return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), return on capital employed
(ROCE) and net interest margin (NIM). This study use ROA as dependent variable. ROA is the
ratio of net income to total assets. ROA measures the profit generated from the asset and reflect
how well the bank's management uses real investment resources to generate profits (Naceur,
2003).Furthermore, and no less prominently, the econometric analysis in most experiential
literature does not take into consideration the classical problems of endogeneity or simultaneity,
and unobservable heterogeneity of the data, which are so common in studies of managerial
decisions (Arellano and Bover, 1990).
Furthermore, regulators and supervisory entities that set minimums for equity capital. Banks
have a very important function to play in the economic operations of any country as financial
intermediary. The task of providing funds to the economy makes their performance an important
objective of any country. Therefore, a look into the factors that affect their profitability is
important and essential to the strength of the economy (Bashir. 2000).The financial system is
considered foundation of expansion and enlargement in all countries. This happens as a result of
their ability to utter the financial system in that economy, by performing some significant
obligations such as making possible the understanding of liquidity policies and payment system
(Mendes and Abreu. A 2002) .Apart from the management of a bank, information of the
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fundamental internal and externalfactors that have an impact on the financial performance of a
bank is essential for policy makers and bank supervisors and regulators in framing future policies
aimed at civilizing the profitability of the banking sector (Kosmidou, 2008; Sufian and Chong,
2008).
Wanzenried (2011) for banks in Switzerland, and Funacova and Poghosyam (2011) for Russian
banks have established pessimistic relationship between liquidity and bank profitability (ROA).
This implies that the determinants of bank profitability are not decisive and same across
countries. Thus, the particular factors that alter the profitability of the commercial banks need to
be recognized on a country base.The work by Samad (1999) is considered the establishing study,
which relates efficiency and performance of Islamic banks. Comparing the efficiency of
conventional and Islamic banks, Samadoriginated that Islamic banks be disposed to become
incompetent when operating within the dual banking environment. Applying financial ratios in
their works, Samad and Hassan (1999) practical that in some aspects, Islamic banks out
performed conventional banks .During their studies
regardless of the growing body of research into determinants of banking profitability, there
remains a scarcity of studies that have examined the specific linkage between organizational size
and its impact on profitability. These authors report that, Previous studies of the dynamics of
growth on the one hand, and profit on the other, have in the main developed separately, and
followed contrasting empirical methodologies. Nevertheless, there are several theoretical
arguments to suggest that these two performance indicators are closely related. [However], few
researchers have tested for empirical relationships between growth and profit directly (Goddard
et al., 2004a p. 1069).Sadaqat, Akhtar and Ali (2011) acknowledged the financial market of
Pakistan as among the most unpredictable markets of world, which is packed with mystery and
escapade presentation. Financial sector of Pakistan possess a widespread collection of financial
institutions, which includes: brokerage houses, national savings schemes, stock exchanges,
investments banks, micro-finance banks, Islamic banks and commercial banks that are offering a
range of products and services.
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1.3 Objectives
The objective of this Paper is to find out about the main drivers of commercial banks
PAKISTAN.
The principle of this paper is to intimatelyobserve how internal factors such as capital
ratio, bank size, asset quality, liquidity and expenses management have an effect on the
banks Profitability.It is critical to determine which factors essentially determine the ROA
and ROE of the banks.
a need for banking performance supervisor by the banking regulator. One of the indicators
to appraise the financial performance of the bank is by looking at its profitability. It is
highly related with how far the bank handle its business in proficient way. competence is
measured by comparing the profit earned with asset or capital that is used to construct
such profit. The higher the profitability of a bank, the financial performance is at its best
(Stiawan, 2009).The indicators of measuring the level of profitability are by looking at the
return on equity (ROE) and the return on asset (ROA). ROE demonstrated the ability of the
management in managing the capital to produce the net income, the highest the return
the higher dividend to be dispersed to the shareholders. in the meantime, ROA established the
ability of the bank using the assets to generate income from its assets management
(Yuliani, 2007).
Chapter 2
2.1Literature review
This section provides the overview of previous studies reviewed related to the determinants ofthe
profitability of banks. Some studies were country specific and few of them considered panel of
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countries for reviewing the determinants of profitability.The review of the literature is defined as
a broad, comprehensive, in-depth, systematic, and critical review of scholarly publications,
unpublished scholarly print materials, audiovisual materials, and personal communications.
Gelos (2006) studies the determinants of bank interest margins in Latin America using bank and
country level data. He finds that spreads are large because of comparatively high interest
rates(which in the study is a proxy for high macroeconomic risk, including from inflation), less
competent banks, and advanced preserve necessities. Athanasoglou, et al.(2006) study the
profitability activities of the south eastern European banking industry over the period 199802.
The observed results propose that the development of bank profitability in those countries
requires new principles in risk management and operating competence, which, according to the
verification offered in the paper, critically influence profits. A key result is that the consequence
of market concentration is positive, while the picture concerning macroeconomic variables is
mixed.
In the study of Bourke (1989), he established an essential affirmative relation between the capital
capability and profitability. He illustrated that superior the capital ratio, more the bank will be
profitable. Renbao Chen et.al (2004) examined in their investigation that higher profits provide
both the means (greater availability of finance from retained profits or from the capital market)
and the incentive (a high rate of return) for new investment. Therefore, we can comprehend
from the above explanation that insurance companies have double liability: in one way they are
required to be profitable so as to have high rate of return for new investment.Hafiz malik in his
study said that Profitability is one of the most important objectives of financial management
because one goal of financial management is to maximize the owner` s wealth and profitability
which in turn indicates better financial performance. According to Hafiz Malik (2011) insurance
plays a crucial role in nurturing commercial and infrastructural businesses. From the latter point
of view it promotes financial and social stability; mobilizes and channels savings; supports trade,
commerce and entrepreneurial movement and improves the quality of the lives of individuals and
the overall well being in a country.
Demirguc- Kunt and Huizinga (1999) performed a more widespread study which examines the
determinants of banking performance for 80 countries, both developed and developing, during
the period 1988-1995. They terminated that foreign banks have higher profitability than domestic
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competence of state, private and foreign banks of Pakistan by using data of 40 banks for the
period 1991-2000. They originate affirmative impact of banks size, interest income to earning
assets and loans to deposit ratio on anticipated efficiency scores. Guru, B. K., J. Staunton, et al.
(2000) conducted study to find out determinants of profitability of commercial banks in Malaysia
accomplished that efficiency in super visioning the expenses of banks and market interest rate
plays essential role to conclude profitability of commercial banks. Further they accomplished
that to increase the profit and to lessen expenses banks must increase current account deposit on
which no interest is appropriate. While advancing loans to any one, commercial banks must be
enormously watchful and must have vigilant eyes on the business risk indicators.
Angbazo (1997) studied that net interest margin of banks in not altered by interest rate risk where
as it more affected by default risk and this higher interest margin leads towards higher
profitability of banks. The banks that have small scale of operations they are affected by both
default risk and interest rate risk this in due course affect their results.Naceur (2003) performed
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research and concluded that massive amount of overheads earnings and huge capital has positive
affect on the profitability of banks. The net interest margin and loans advances by bank have
momentous and positive impact on the profitability of banks. Further, from the macroeconomic
indicators size and growth have a negative impact on the profitability of commercial bank.
Financial markets developments also have important impact on the profitability of commercial
banks .Kosmidou (2008) researched
operating cost earn higher return on assets. Bank size only matters when macroeconomic
variable are integrated in the model. Mamatzakis and Remoundos (2003) accomplished that
some of the significant variables that explain banks profitability are ratio of loans to assets, ratio
of equity to assets and personal operating expense of banks. These variables are also
straightforwardly considered as in relation of directly to strategic planning. Further, economies
of scale have constructive impact on the profitability of banks and bank size is considered as
economies of scale. As an external variable the size of the market is considered as having
positive affect on the profitability of banks.
Naceur and Goaied (2005) banks profitability is highly related with how much cash bank holds.
Banks advances to total assets have affirmative affect on the profitability of banks where as size
of banks has negative major impact on the profitability of banks. Banks profitability is also
altered by stock markets because if stock market will develop then demand of advances will
boosts.Williams (2003) concluded that profitability of domestic banks is indirectly associated
with the market share of host country competitors whereas profitability is positively allied with
GDP growth. Miller and Noulas (1997) studied the factors that affected the profitability of banks
in USA for the period of 1985 to 1990 in which the size of the banks was found to be a
negatively linked with profitability. The negative relationship of the size expresses the
diseconomies of scale.
Kosmidou(2008acknowledged the considerable relationship of size and capital adequacy ratio,
while the size is directly related with performance actions.Ali, Akhtar and Ahmed (2011)
demonstrated
management and GDP that are influencing the profitability of commercial banks in Pakistan
while studying the impact of bank-specific and macro-economic factors on profitability . Akhtar,
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Ali and Sadaqat (2011) found advanced performance in fundamentals of assets and return which
recognized that conventional banks had enhanced profitability than Islamic banks in Pakistan.
Ani,W.U et.al (2012) examined the determinants of profitability of commercial banks in Nigeria
for the period of ten years from 2001 to 2010 together with the observation of 147 banks. Pooled
ordinary least square was used to approximate the coefficient. Study finds that bank size does not
raises the profit of any commercial banks in Nigeria. Greater capital-asset ratio increases the
profitability of banks. The commercial banks of Pakistan for the period of 2004-2008.Pooled
ordinary least square has been used to verify the affect of internal factors includes assets, loan,
equity and deposits on the profitability of banks on dependant variable called return on asset
(ROA).The study found that internal factors declared above consequence the banks profitability.
Bank size or total assets does not escort any profitability of commercial banks but equity and
deposits have important control on the profitability of commercial banks.
Abdel karim Almumani (2013) studied the internal factors that impact on the profitability of the
commercial banks scheduled in Amman Stock Exchange in Jordan for the duration of 20052011.The study constitutes that the cost-income ratio has a majorcrash with the profitability of
commercial banks in Jordan.ImadZ.Ramadan et.al (2011) took separately the determinants of
profitability of 10 Jordan banks for the period of 2001-2010.They have used return on equity
(ROE) and return on assets (ROA) as dependant variables and internal and external factors have
been used as an independent variables and the type of data of Jordan banks is penal data. Results
nominated that profitability of the Jordan banks depend upon the well capitalized banks, high
loaning activities, less credit risk and cost management effectiveness. conclusion also uttered that
size does not increase the profitability of Jordan banks.
Fadzlan Sufian et.al (2008) investigated the profitability of the banks in Philippines for the
period of 1990-2005.The conclusion paint a picture that profitability factors have drastically
impact on bank profitability. The study also showed that if the expense related behavior and
credit risk raises the profitability of the banks operating in Philippines decreases and the noninterest income and capitalization both have the affirmative relationship with banks profitability.
During the study undertaken the inflation increases the profit of the banks in Philippines
decreases. PaoloSaona Hoffmann (2011) worked out to find the determinants of profitability of
the banks operating in US for the period of 1995-2007.The study undertakes the internal and
25 | P a g e
external factors disturbing the profitability of banks in US economy. The study found that there
is a pessimistic relationship between the capital ratio and profitability which affirms the believe
that banks are operating most cautiously and dismissing potentially profitable trading chances.
The cost advantages due to the bank size do not alter the profitability of the banking industry of
US. Syeda Anum JavedBukhari (2012) examined the internal and external factors that affect on
the profitability of 11 commercial banks operating in Pakistan for the period of 2005-2009.The
study uses the regression technique to incriminate the result with the hypothesis. The conclusion
from this research paper are that internal factors impact the profitability of the commercial banks
whereas external factors do not affect.
Khizar Ali et.al (2011) studied the profitability factors impacting on the profit of the 22
commercial banks both public and private working in Pakistan for the period of 2006-2009.The
study used the descriptive statistics, correlation and regression analysis. Return on assets (ROA)
and return on equity (ROE) have been used as dependant variables and on the other hand internal
and external factors have been used as independent variables. The consequences show that when
the economic growth boosts the profitability increases. And on the other side when the credit risk
increases the profitability becomes lesser.DegerAlper (2011) investigated the internal and
external factors of banks profitability of Turkey for the period of 2002-2010.In this study the
return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) both are the dependant variables and the
purpose of internal and external factors. Profitability increases when the non interest income and
asset size increases. And real interest rate in the external factors has positiveresult on
profitability.
Dr. Srinivas Madishetti et.al (2013) analyzed the profitability determinants of Tanzania
commercial banks for the period of 2006-2012.Internal determinants use the variables like
liquidity risk, credit risk, operating efficiency, business assets and capital adequacy and external
determinants use the variables GDP growth rate and inflation rate. All of these variables are
independent. The study found that internal variables determine the banks profitability whereas
external factors do not influence the profitability of commercial banks.Abuzar (2013)
premeditated the determinants of profitability of Islamic banks working in Sudan. This study
found that only the internal factors have the extensive impact on the profitability of the
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commercial banks. Cost, liquidity and the size of the banks have the positive relationship with
the bank profitability. Macroeconomic or external factors have no significant affect on
profitability.Flamini et al. (2009) offer facts from 41 Sub-Saharan Africa countries that during
19982006 higher capital, credit risk, bank size and improved share of services in the bank
activity, inflation, and higher prices of supplies all had positive and important consequence on
profitability. Oladele et al. (2012) examined Nigerian banks profitability during the period 20052010 and terminate that cost to income ratio and equity to total asset both have momentous
control on bank profitability.
Babalola (2012) studied the profitability of 14 banks in Nigeria over the period 1999-2008 and
told that optimistic impact of capital capability ratio and bank size.Olweny and Shipho (2011)
assessed a sample of 38 commercial banks in Kenya over the phase from 2002 to 2008 and find
that stronger capital base, higher liquidity, enhanced assets quality and condensed operational
costs all develop profitability. Flamini and Schumacher (2009) investigates the determinants of
bank profitability, the paper projected that higher returns on assets are connected with larger
bank size, activity diversification, and private ownership. Bank returns are exaggerated by
macroeconomic variables, which point out that macroeconomic policies that support low
inflation and stable yield growth encourage the growth of credit. The results also indicated
reasonable perseverance in profitability Vong and Chan (2006) studied the affect of bank
characteristics, macroeconomic variables and financial structure on the presentation of the
banking industry of Macau. The results showed that the strength of the bank's capital is of central
importance in influencing profitability. A well-capitalized bank is supposed to be of lower risk
and such a benefit will be translated into higher profitability. On the other hand, the quality of
assets, as measured by loan-loss provision affects the workings of banks negatively. In addition,
banks with a large retail deposit-taking network do not attain a level of profitability higher than
those with a smaller network. Finally, with consider to macroeconomic variables, only the rate of
inflation showed a great affiliation with the performance of banks.
Kosmidou et al. (2006) examines the impact of bank-specific characteristics, macroeconomic
circumstances and financial market structure on the profits of UK owned commercial bank
during the period 1995-2002. The results showed that the potency of capital of these banks has a
positive affect on profitability; and other important factors being the proficient management of
expenditures and size of the bank. These bank-specific determinants are vigorousto the addition
27 | P a g e
of additional macroeconomic and financial market measures of bank performance, which adds
slight to the descriptive power but it seems, however, that had positive affect on profitability.
Gelos (2006) investigates the determinants of bank profitability in Latin America, finds that
spreads are great because of comparatively high macroeconomic risk, together with inflation,
less competent
Angbazo(1997) instituted facts that bank profitability is positively correlated to capital, noninterest income, and management quality, and negatively interrelated to liquidity risk.
Zimmerman (1996) originated that management decisions, especially concerning loan portfolio
concentration, were an imperative contributing factor in bank performance. Researchers
commonly attribute good bank performance to quality management. Management worth is
assessed in terms of senior officers consciousness and managing of the banks policies and
performance. Molyneux (1993) found affirmative relationship between staff expenses and total
profits. As he suggests high profits earned by firms in a synchronized industry may be
appropriated in the form of higher payroll expenditures. Revell (1979) examined in his study
that variations in bank profitability can be robustly explained by the level of inflation. A central
circuitous control on commercial banks lies in the affect of inflation on their customers and the
resultant changes in the demand for different kinds of financial services. Unanticipated rises of
inflation cause cash flow difficulties for borrowers which can lead to untimely execution of loan
arrangements and impetuous loan losses. Furthermore, inflation is one of the main routes through
which it is probable to alter the operations and margins of banks through interest rates.
Samy&Mahammad (2008) investigated the affect of specific variables connected to commercial
banks of Tunisia as well as macroeconomic indicators on the profitability and financial
structures effect on banking sectors profitability in Tunisia from 1980 to 2000 period.
Capital competency ratio has direct effect on profitability and there is negative affect of size on
profitability. There is no impact of macroeconomic indicators on banks profitability in
Tunisia.Fadzlan&Muzaffar (2009) premeditated the pressure of banks internal factors and
macroeconomic indicators on profitability of banks in China together with all joint stock
(JSCBs) commercial banks, state owned (SOCBs) and city commercial banks during 2000 to
2005. The findings exposed that liquidity has the optimistic influence and there is also a positive
control of capitalization and credit risk on the profitability of State owned banks. On commercial
banks of joint stock the affect of cost on the profitability is negative. But in the case commercial
28 | P a g e
banks of city the influence of size is negative and the impact of costs is also negative.
Diversification affect is positive. The economic growths influence is positive and there is a
negative affect of money supply growth on profitability of the state owned and city commercial
banks in China.Panayiotis, Sophocles and Mattaios (2006) examined the impact of banks
internal factors, industry associated factors and indicators linked to macro economy on the
profitability of banks in Greek during 1985-2001. By using GMM technique, the anticipated
results showed that capital, credit risk, operating exp management, inflation and productivity
growth, business cycle (cyclical output) have the positive as well significant impact on the
banks profitability where as there is a negative affect of size on the profitability.
Bikker and Hu (2002) and Goddard et al. (2004) bond bank size to capital asset ratio, and they
quarrel that higher capital ratios imitate the reliability and safety of banks and with increase in
capital, profitability rises because moderately large banks be likely to raise less expensive
capital, thus appearing to be more profitable. The very first researcher who felt that internal
variables are the part of profitability was Bourke (1989). He integrated capital ratios, staff
expenses and liquidity ratios in the internal variables for profitability. The dependent variables
were included the net profit before taxes against total capital ratio and net profit before taxes
against total assets ratio. According to Bourke these internal variables were interrelated to the
profitability absolutely.
Haslem (1968) used 64 operating ratios to determine the belongings of management, size,
location and time on profitability of commercial banks. He found that all the variables have
important influence on the profitability. Vernon (1971) studied on the consequence of ownership
on profitability. He originated that if ownership of one bank is controlled by the owner and other
bank is owned by the management. In this way, the first bank which is owned by the owner will
earn a smaller amount then the second bank which is handled by the management of the
bank.Guru, B. K., J. Staunton, et al. (2000) made a study to find out determinants of profitability
of commercial banks in Malaysia accomplished that efficiency in fantastic visioning
the
expenses of banks and market interest rate plays elementary role to terminate profitability of
commercial banks. Further they consummated that to enhance the profit and to lessen expenses
banks must broaden current account deposit on which no interest is suitable. While advancing
loans to any one, commercial banks must be extremely careful and must have observant eyes on
the business risk indicators. Ali, K., M. F. Akhtar, et al. (2011) illustrated that profitability of
29 | P a g e
banks can be enhanced through capable asset management and through economic growth.
Further they explained that high credit risk of advances result in lesser profitability of banks. As
micro variable GDP has affirmative impact on the profitability of banks. As micro indicators
profitability of banks is positively by size of bank, operating efficiency and profitability is
indirectly altered by credit risk.
Angbazo (1997) demonstrated that net interest margin of banks in notaffected by interest rate
risk where as it more altered by default risk and this higher interest margin leads towards
advanced profitability of banks. The banks that have small scale of operations they are
embroidered by both default risk and interest rate risk this ultimately has influence on their
results.Mamatzakis and Remoundos (2003) investigated that some of the significant variables
that elucidate banks profitability are ratio of loans to assets, ratio of equity to assets and personal
operating expense of banks. These variables are also uncomplicatedly considered as in relation of
directly to strategic planning. Further, economies of scale have positive impact on the
profitability of banks and bank size is considered as economies of scale. As an external variable
the size of the market is considered as having direct influence on the profitability of banks.
Boudriga, Taktak and Jellouli (2009) statistically demonstrated the cross-countries factors of non
performing loans (NPLs) on risk exposure. The research uses data for a panel of 59 countries
over the period 2002-2006 that includes financial, economic, collective banking and legal
atmosphere. The realistic results showed that greater capital adequacy ratio (CAR) appears to
decrease the level of problem of non-performing loans.
Nissanke and Aryeetey (1998) and Aryeeteyet al. (1997) established that incessant poor
performance of banking systems in Africa could be partiallyillustrated by the high degree of
financial market fragmentation and inadequateright to use to basic payment services or savings
accounts. On the other hand, Nissanke and Aryeetey (2006); Dermerguc-Kunt and Huizingha
(2001); and Bikker and Hu (2002) exposed that African banks have not been extensively
examined and was therefore complicated to notify policy on readily well-organized banks in the
continent without adequate data.Al-Haschimi (2007) studied the determinants of bank net
interest margin in 10 SSA countries, and applies an accounting decomposition model as well as
panel regressions. Further investigated that credit risk and operational inefficiencies explain most
of the distinction in net interest margins across the region, with macroeconomic factors, having
less control on performance.Rovell (1979) investigated the issue of the relationship between
30 | P a g e
bank profitability and inflation. distinguished that the consequence of inflation on bank
profitability depends on whether bank wages and other operating expenses boost at a more rapid
rate than inflation. The question is how full-grown an economy is so that future inflation is
truthfully anticipated to enable banks handle their operating costs.
Perry (1992) studied that the level to which inflation has impact on bank profitability depends on
whether inflation prospects are fully predictable. An inflation rate fully expected by the bank
management implies that banks can properly adjust interest rates in order to enlarge their
revenues quicker than their costs and thus obtain more economic profits.Saunders and
Schumacher (2000) applied a model of Ho and Saunders (1981) to examine the determinants of
interest margin in six European Union and US banks during the period 1988 to 1995. They
further recognized that macroeconomic instability and rules have an important influence on bank
interest margin. The result barbed out an imperative trade off between ensuring bank solvency, as
defined by high capital to asset ratio, and lowering cost of financial services to consumers, as
calculated by lower interest rate margin.
Afanasieffet al. (2002) also used panel data techniques to expose the main determinants of bank
functioning in Brazil and originated out that macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth rate,
inflation prospects are significant in determining bank profitability over time.Another study by
Abreu and Mendes (2002) on commercial bank interest margins and Profitability, for banks from
four different EU countries for the period of 1986-1999 examines the impact of bank-specific
variables besides other variables on profitability of banks. They concluded that well-capitalized
banks have lesser bankruptcy costs and higher interest margins on assets. concerning bankspecific variables, the net interest margin reacts optimistically to operating costs and the loan-toasset ratio has a direct affect on interest margins and profitability
Chapter 3
Methodology and Data
3.1 Dependent variables
ROE
Return on equity
The amount of net income returned as a percentage of shareholders equity. Return on equity
measures a corporation's profitability by revealing how much profit a company generates with
31 | P a g e
enables
comparisons
of
leverage
to
be
made
across
different
companies.
banks
Taxes
A tax (from the Latin taxo; "rate") is a financial charge or other levy imposed upon a taxpayer
(an individual or legal entity) by a state or the functional equivalent of a state such that failure to
pay, or evasion of or resistance to collection, is punishable by law. Taxes are also imposed by
many administrative divisions. Taxes consist of direct or indirect taxes and may be paid in
money or as its labor equivalent.
Fixed asset to total asset
Fixed assetA long-term tangible piece of property that a firm owns and uses in the production of
its income and is not expected to be consumed or converted into cash any sooner than at least
one year's time.
Total asset The sum of current and long-term assets owned by a person, company, or
other entity.
term investments, accounts receivable, stock inventory and the portion of prepaid liabilities
which will be paid within a year.
Total asset
The sumof current and long-term assets owned by a person, company, or other entity.
Liquidity
The degree to which an asset or security can be bought or sold in the market without affecting
the asset's price. Abuzar (2013)demonstrated that liquidity has positive affect on profitability.
3.3 Equations
In ist equation Return on Equity ratio has been taken as dependent variable, whereas Total
Liability toTotal Asset, asset quality ratio ,Current asset to Total Asset, Taxes , and liquidity ratio
have been taken as independent variablesWhile in 2nd equation Return on Assethas been taken as
dependent variable while,current ratio, total liability to total asset ,asset quality ratio ,current
asset to total asset, taxes and liquidity are taken as independent variables.Ordinary least square
method technique is to determine the relationship between dependent and independent variables
in both equations developed for this study.
1)
= + 0TLTA + 1 AQR+ 2CATA + 3 LR+ 4 TAXES++
In Ist regression model is the profitability of banks (dependent variable) in this paper ROE
(return on equity) will be used to measure profitability, is constant, and other five are
independent variables and at the end is error term.
34 | P a g e
2)
= + 0CR + 1TLTA + 2 AQR+ 3CATA + 4 LR+ 5 TAXES+
including total liability to total asset, current ratio, asset quality ratio , current asset to total asset
liquidity ratio and taxes are independent variables.
Chapter 4
4.1Results and discussions
4.2 Ist model
ROE
Coef.
Std. Err.
P>|t|
[95% Conf.
Interval]
TLTA
AQR
CATA
LR
Taxes
_cons
.0806356
-.4247575
-1274.094
1275.418
5.64e-08
-.2341426
.0416057
.1859153
1070.342
1070.398
1.06e-08
.0886704
1.94
-2.28
-1.19
1.19
5.30
-2.64
.055
.024
.236
.235
.000
.009
-.0016263
-.7923451
-3390.351
-840.9495
3.53e-08
-.4094598
.1628975
-.0571699
842.1616
3391.786
7.74e-08
-.0588255
Source
SS
Df
MS
Model
6.34520075
1.26904015
Residual
Total
18.379681
24.7248817
139
144
.132227921
.171700568
Number of obs
F(5 , 139)
Prob> F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
35 | P a g e
145
9.60
0.0000
0.2566
0.2299
.36363
In first model the dependent variable Return on equity is regressed against independent variables
Total liability to total asset , asset quality ratio, current asset to total asset, liquidity ratio and
taxes. There are 145 observations of this result and the results derived from this equation are that
F statistics value is falling between 5 nominator degree of freedom and 139 denominator degree
of freedom. The probability value F is 0.0000 showing that its a good fit model. Value of R
square in this result showing that there is 25% of contribution of independent variables in the
dependent variable and Adjusted R squared value shows that 22% of variations in dependent
variable are explained by the variations in independent variables.. The result showing positive
and negative relationship among dependent and independent variables . There is positive
significant relationship between Roe and total liability to total asset , negative significant
relationship among asset quality ratio and ROE , negative insignificant relationship among
current asset to total asset and Return on equity, positive significant relationship between
liquidity ratio and Return on equity and positive significant relationship between Return on
equity and taxes . Asset quality ratio affects profitability of banks negatively Vong and Chan
(2006) . Abuzar (2013)demonstrated that liquidity has positive affect on profitability.
Coef.
Std. Err.
P>|t|
[95% Conf.
Interval]
CR
TLTA
AQR
CATA
.1230249
.0121454
-.0564548
-31.71442
.0432726
.0022441
.0097287
55.31817
2.84
5.41
-5.80
-0.57
0.005
0.000
0.000
0.567
.0374618
.0077081
-.0756913
-141.0952
.2085879
.0165828
-.0372182
77.66641
LR
31.61038
55.33184
0.57
0.569
-77.79748
141.0182
Taxes
-cons
.345e-09
-.0126228
5.42e-10
.0045206
6.36
-2.79
0.000
0.006
2.38e-09
-.0215613
4.52e-09
-.0036842
Source
SS
Df
MS
Model
.035845194
.005974199
Residual
.047289385
138
.000342677
36 | P a g e
Total
.083134579
144
.000577323
Number of obs
145
F4, 160
Prob> F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
17.43
0.0000
0.4312
0.4064
.01851
In second model the dependent variable Return on asset is regressed against independent
variables current ratio, Total liability to total asset , asset quality ratio, current asset to total asset,
liquidity ratio and taxes. There are 145 observations of this result and the results derived from
this equation are that F statistics value is falling between 4 nominator degree of freedom and 160
denominator degree of freedom. The probability value F is 0.0000 showing that its a good fit
model. Value of R square in this result showing that there is 43% of contribution of independent
variables in the dependent variable and Adjusted R squared value shows that 40% of variations
in dependent variable are explained by the variations in independent variables. According to this
result current ration and return on asset ratio are positively and significantly related with one
another. There is affirmative and significant relationship between total liability to total asset and
Roa . Negative significant relationship is existing among return on asset and asset quality ratio.
There is negative insignificant linkage between roa and current asset to total asset, positive
insignificant relationship among
relationship between return on asset ratio and taxes. Abuzar (2013) demonstrated that liquidity
has positive affect on profitability.Asset quality ratio affects profitability of banks negatively
Vong and Chan (2006)
Chapter 5
5.1 Conclusion
The main objective of the study was to examine the factors affecting profitability of banks in
Pakistan . In this study secondary data is used for the period of 2007-2011 data of 29 banks
Pakistan listed at Karachi stock exchange is used. Ist model result is showing that profitability of
37 | P a g e
bank is negatively affected by Asset quality ratio and Current asset to total asset ratio. While
positively affected by Total liability to total asset ratio, liquidity ratio and taxes . In ist model
there is significant relationship among profitability and total liability to total asset, asset quality
ratio , taxes. 2nd model result is showing that profitability of bank is negatively affected by
Asset quality ratio and Current asset to total asset ratio. While positively affected by total
liability to total asset, Liquidity ratio, current ratio and taxes .2 nd model conclusion I that in this
model much variables are significantly related with profitability of banks including liquidity,
Total liability to total asset, asset quality ratio and taxes.
Limitations
Future research needs to be done in order to improve the results of this study that among other
things can be done . Following are the some limitations of this study.
The data collected in this study was from our country we can increase importance of our
study by collecting data from another country. The data from different countries will
increase the worth of results and study also.
We had not much time to develop a lengthy study so time constraint was is also the
limitation of study .
The data of banks collected in this study are listed at Karachi stock exchange but We can
collect data from more than one stock exchange like Islamabad and Lahore stock
exchange.
The cross sectional data can also be used to increase our research work validity.
In this study we have used linear regression model but we have many techniques which
can be used for running tests so it is also the limitation of this study.
38 | P a g e
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