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Australia - Telecoms Market Analysis - Top Trends

Moving into 2016


Released On 21st July 2015

This annual publication provides telecoms market analysis moving into 2016. It
includes forecasts, overviews and discussions on:
Industry consolidation and cost cutting set to continue;
Video streaming puts pressure on the quality of the NBN;
Mobile broadband traffic explosion driven by transactions initiated by smartphone
devices;
Telco industry slow in its transformation;
Winners are assets and people light and use horizontal collaboration and the sharing
economy;
New opportunities in: healthcare, education, government services, smart grids, smart
cities, connected homes, wearable technologies, IoT and M2M;
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Telstra is taking a leadership role in some of these developments, not just here also
internationally;
NBN FttH passed 1 million, FttN roll out start in all earnest after a 3 year delay in
2016;
LTE (4 G) is fuelling developments in IoT and M2M;
Data analytic capabilities are opening up opportunities for new wealth creation and
new jobs;
Well connected communities are leading the trend towards smart cities;Data retention
and web blocking laws will not solve the cybercrime problems.
Researchers:- Paul Budde, Henry Lancaster
Current publication date:- July 2015 (28th Edition)
Disruption: challenges and opportunities for the telco industry
The Australian telecommunications market is continuing to see consolidation, as
traditional services are being further commoditised and digital media companies are
offering new communication services, free or at significantly lower cost. Thanks to new
video streaming services such as Netflix, and an increased use of mobile broadband for
a range of applications, peoples use of broadband has increased; however a squeeze on
margins of services such as broadband access doesnt mean that such increased usage
of telecommunications also accounts for any significant increases in industry revenues.
The industry will still need to further transform itself in order to be able to handle the
dynamics of the market, which include lower margins, commoditisation, new
technologies and competition from outside the traditional market. The new billion
dollar companies in the digital media are light on assets and light on staff; and their
business models are based on transactions facilitated by their software-based services
and done in an automated way by the users of their assets, using algorithms, big data,
cloud computing and datacentres.
There are plenty of new opportunities in the market. Now that the quality of broadband
access is improving albeit still rather slowly new markets are opening up in
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healthcare, education, government services, smart grids, smart cities, connected homes,
wearable technologies, IoT and M2M the list goes on. Telecommunications companies
should take a leadership role in these developments but so far the key developments in
these areas come from other organisations. Telstra is an exception here, with the
leadership role it plays in the development of the e-health market in Australia.
For the time being, however, cost-cutting, consolidation and mergers will continue to
dominate the telco industry. At the same time an ongoing barrage of innovations, new
technologies, new apps and new services will shape the telecoms market. It is an
extremely dynamic market with lots of twists and turns, set to continue into 2016 and
beyond.
Other key topics that are discussed in this report include
National Broadband Network - Developments and Analyses 2015
By mid-2015 over a million premises were able to connect to the NBN so far most of
them have access to the original NBN, three-quarters have access to FttH, the
remainder to wireless and satellite networks. The revised rollout of the so-called multimix technology (DSL and HFC) will start in earnest in 2016.There still is no long-term
plan for when and how to upgrade from the older technologies to proper FttH; however
the Opposition has indicated that if it wins the next election it will revive the FttH plan,
but will take into account the circumstances that exist at that time.
M2M and The Internet of Things
With the NBN and LTE now well and truly underway it is important to look at what will
be the real value of this new infrastructure.
This Internet of Things (M2M, Pervasive Internet and Industrial Internet) is going to
be a real game-changer. It will transform every single sector of society and the economy
and it will be out of this environment that new businesses and indeed new industries
will be born. This is one of the reasons so many overseas ICT companies are
increasing their presence in Australia. The LTE will take a leadership role in the
development of M2M but the NBN is also an ideal test-bed for such developments. A
great deal of attention is being paid to cloud computing and the NBN can be viewed as
one gigantic cloud.
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The number of connected M2M devices will grow to somewhere between 25 million
and 50 million by 2020.

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Big Data
BuddeComm describes big data as looking at intelligent outcomes that can be achieved
from data collaboration.
The most critical issue here is strategic management, rather than technology. However
the fact that big data has become a vital tool in competition is forcing many companies
to transform their organisations from a company-centric approach to a customercentric one.
Connected information management, however, can go much further. There are many
other players involved in the broader ecosystem, and by sharing and combining
relevant data sets and then analysing those large data sets we can find new correlations
that can be used to spot business trends, assess customer behaviour, prevent diseases,
combat crime and so on.
Smart Cities, Smart Infrastructure
The development of smart cities and indeed smart countries require vision and
recognition of the fact that many of todays social, economic and sustainability
problems can only be solved with the assistance of ICT. In many situations the
ubiqueness, affordability, capacity, robustness, security and quality necessary for this
calls for fibre optic and high-speed wireless infrastructures. This need will increase
dramatically over the next 5 to 10 years as industries and whole sectors (healthcare,
energy, transport, water) carry out the process of transforming themselves in order to
much better address the challenges ahead.
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Cyber Crime, Privacy and Copyright issues


With the internet having become critical national and international infrastructure a
whole range of privacy and issues have come to the fore in relation to the digital
economy and the digital society.
Some of these issues are in relation to national and international security and tens of
billions are spent by governments using the internet as a surveillance tool. This has led
to a frenzy of activity by governments to, on the one hand, protect their sovereignty
and, on the other, use the internet for their own security activities.
Separate to this are the commercial issues. With internet services becoming pervasive
it can be argued, rightly or wrongly, that there are some services that people simply
have to have. This is exploited by the companies involved, with requests for a range of
highly private data in exchange for the free use of these applications and services.
Table of Contents
1. Telecoms Market Analysis 2015
1.1 General Analyses
1.1.1 The Budget: good initiatives to assist the digital transformation
1.1.2 How to better balance the Federal Budget?
1.1.3 50 Year Anniversary of Moores Law: Optimism or Pessimism for the Future?
1.1.4 Strategic scenario forecasting validated
1.2 Australia International Analyses relevant to Oz
1.2.1 The big business model clash in Barcelona
1.2.2 Lets address inequality

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1.3 Mobile
1.3.1 Is LTE going to impact on free WiFi?
1.3.2 What makes 5G special?
1.3.3 Will telcos be able to harness the new business opportunities of 5G?
1.3.4 Mobile Connect Mobile ID
1.3.5 Report from the World Mobile Congress in Barcelona
1.3.6 What do customers want from mobile operators?
1.3.7 Can mobile operators afford a mobile-only strategy?
1.3.8 Data mining the next driver of mobile revenue
1.4 Broadband
1.4.1 Broadband changing telco business model from retail to wholesale
1.4.2 Low cost economy depends on ubiquitous affordable high speed broadband
1.4.3 The next stage of the broadbanding of the world
1.4.4 Downstream speeds vs upstream speeds
1.5 Digital Transformation
1.5.1 Government lags in digital leadership
1.5.2 The effect of big data on the advertising industry
1.5.3 Online advertising does not improve the overall result for advertisers
1.5.4 Telstra leading the e-health market
1.5.5 Medieval education system hard to reform
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1.5.6 A different approach to employment


1.5.7 Banks under e-pressure
1.6 Digital Media
1.6.1 Broadcasting sector adjusts to competition from OTT video services
1.6.2 Competition is hotting up in Australian Video Entertainment market
1.6.3 Slow Netflix send your complaints to Minister Turnbull
1.6.4 Streaming threat to Pay TV
1.6.5 E-books and human behaviour
1.6.6 Is the IPTV market ready for consolidation?
1.6.7 Content the next regulatory war zone
1.6.8 In the digital media revolution, consumer choice is the key

2. National Broadband Network Developments and Analyses 2015


2.1 Political Developments
2.1.1 NBN this is as good as it gets
2.1.2 Labors NBN 3.0 back to FttH
2.1.3 After the storm do we need a national inquiry into the reliability of our telecoms
networks?
2.1.4 Should taxpayers pay for a NBN based on MTM?
2.1.5 The Minister for Lost Opportunities
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2.1.6 Staying focused on the NBN outcomes and bypassing political roadblocks
2.1.7 Biggest threat to NBN is political panic
2.1.8 The unravelling of the NBN
2.2 The NBN company
2.2.1 How independent is NBN Co?
2.2.2 NBN Co threat to proper broadband competition
2.3 Technology Issues
2.3.1 Whatever happened to the rollout of the fixed wireless NBN in regional Australia?
2.3.2 The difference between FttH and FttP
2.3.3 Why Australia needs a Fibre-to-the-Premises policy
2.3.4 Market-led demand for FttH is picking up
2.4 Competition Issues
2.4.1 Open up the metropolitan NBN market to competition
2.4.2 Competition in the telecoms industry is dwindling
2.4.3 TPG highlights the fragile NBN environment
2.5 Other Issues
2.5.1 Broadband services in rural Australia worse than we thought
2.5.2 Australia vs America what leaders say about broadband speeds
2.5.3 Content the next regulatory war zone
2.5.4 NBN-related jobs increase by 248% since review
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3. The Broadcasting Market in 2015


3.1 Disruptive content is heating up the competition
3.2 International competition needs infrastructure
3.3 Free-to-Air TV still going strong
3.4 Should the Pay TV model be retained even though it is wrong?
3.5 Fast-forward, re-wind, catch-up all aim to deliver content
3.6 Netflix is forcing the transformation of the broadcasting industry
3.7 Customers moving to streaming media delivery
3.8 Digital TV moved to 100% penetration
3.9 Restacking the digital channel spectrum
3.10 Budget cuts to the ABC and SBS
3.11 Digital radio
3.12 Revenue trends in the media sector
3.13 In the digital media revolution, consumer choice is the key
3.14 Why Australia needs a Fibre-to-the-Premises (FttP) policy
3.15 Fetch TV championing the one-stop-shop approach to video entertainment
3.16 Broadcasting is moving to broadband
3.17 Will broadcasting move to the cloud?

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4. M2M and The Internet of Things


4.1 Market and Industry Analyses
4.1.1 Analysis of the market in 2015
4.1.2 IoT transforming product-based economies to ones based on services
4.1.3 M2M hype and reality
4.1.4 2014 was the year of M2M, but
4.1.5 Who will dominate the IoT market?
4.1.6 The Internet of Everything
4.2 Statistical information
4.2.1 Results from early IoT adopters
4.2.2 M2M keeps growing into 2016
4.2.3 High adoption rates for IoT
4.2.4 Ovum/Vodafone study tips the market at A$530 million by 2019
4.2.5 Insights on M2M from Vodafone
4.2.6 Market forecast network connected devices 2015
4.2.7 M2M statistics from Telstra
4.2.8 Lack of leadership, standardisation and interoperability
4.2.9 Competitive advantages of Mobile M2M
4.3 Electricity companies and the M2M
4.3.1 Largest market segment
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4.3.2 Data analytics solutions for Smart Grids

5. Big Data
5.1 Big Data Data Analytics
5.1.1 Telsyte Australian Big Data and Analytics Study 2014
5.1.2 High quality data and analytics can improve customer relationships
5.1.3 Data silos
5.1.4 Contextual intelligence
5.1.5 Benefits for telcos and ISPs
5.1.6 Social Network Analytics
5.1.7 Subscriber Data Management
5.1.8 Business understands need for real-time processing
5.1.9 Open data policy
5.1.10 6000 sets of government info goes public.
5.1.11 Telcos and the science of big data - Analysis
5.2 Key trends and Developments
5.2.1 Connected Information Management (CIM)
5.2.2 Deep packet inspection
5.2.3 Ubiquitous Complex Event Processing
5.2.4 Behavioural Attitudinal Geolocation
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5.2.5 Advanced recommendations engines


5.2.6 Lifetime customer relationships
5.2.7 Data analytics solutions for Smart Grids
5.2.8 Cryptography
5.3 Market Statistics and Surveys
5.3.1 Big data gathering momentum
5.3.2 Big data survey from EMC
5.3.3 Big Data predictions IDC

6. Smart Cities, Smart Infrastructure


6.1 Smart Cities and Smart Councils
6.1.1 Smart cities are driven by their mayors
6.1.2 Governments fail to build national consensus
6.1.3 People are ready for smart environments
6.1.4 Cities are leading where federal policies fail
6.1.5 PPPPs cities collaborating with citizens and private enterprise
6.1.6 The need for leadership from the top and smart councils
6.1.7 The funding dilemma
6.2 The Drivers behind Smart Cities
6.2.1 Customer-driven smart cities
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6.2.2 Economy-driven smart cities


6.2.3 Society-driven smart cities
6.2.4 Greenfields Opportunities
6.2.5 Brownfields Challenges
6.3 Trends, Developments, Analyses
6.3.1 Cities of the future research
6.3.2 Smart Cities: sustainable engines for growth
6.3.3 Have plans ready for opportunities
6.3.4 Regulations for drones
6.4 Smart cities and smart countries - Analysis
6.4.1 The need for an holistic approach
6.4.2 How to build smart communities and smart countries
6.4.3 Stage one - infrastructure
6.4.4 Stage two trans-sector policies
6.4.5 Stage three - the business game-changer

7. Cyber Crime, Privacy and Copyright Issues


7.1 Cyber crime
7.1.1 Statistical overview
7.1.2 Dark Nets
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7.1.3 A snapshot of key attacks


7.1.4 How to limit the damage
7.1.5 Cryptography
7.2 Data retention legislation
7.2.1 Introduction
7.2.2 Cost of the scheme
7.2.3 Data retention policy more risks than gains?
7.2.4 The aim of the proposed legislation
7.2.5 How to finance mass surveillance - The internet tax
7.2.6 Security risk could be higher than its gain
7.2.7 New laws more harm than good
7.2.8 Free at last! Or freedom lost? Liberty in the digital age.
7.3 Copyright laws for the digital economy
7.3.1 Copyright Amendment (Online Infringement) Bill
7.3.2 Hollywood studios get access to telco regulation
7.3.3 Rushed, chaotic and inadequate
7.3.4 TPP secrecy in politics continue
7.4 Privacy and trust fundamentals of a digital economy
7.4.1 The David and Goliath battle for privacy
7.4.2 Consumers are the serfs of the feudal internet companies
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7.4.3 Permission-based marketing


7.4.4 Trust is eroding
7.4.5 Government intervention is unavoidable
7.4.6 Social Compact for Digital Privacy and Security

List Of Tables
Table 1 Homes connected to fibre 2005 - 2010
Table 2 Australian advertising spend in broadcasting sectors 2010; 2014; 2016
Table 3 - Telstra M2M statistics
Exhibit 1 Can grid power keep the internet alive?
Exhibit 2 Key performance indicators of the broadcasting, STV and IPTV markets 2014
Exhibit 3 Real-time processing
Exhibit 4 Watson cognitive computing
Exhibit 5 - Key characteristics of contextual intelligence in customer service
Exhibit 6 - Cyber crime statistics
Exhibit 7 - ACC UPDATE advice
Exhibit 8 Australians express their concerns about privacy
Exhibit 9 - Statistics shows customers dont trust B2B companies

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