Ranges (Up till 11.

50am HKT)
Currency

123.50-60. With Nikkei in red, think pressure will stay

on UsdJpy.

Currency

EURUSD

1.0924-61

EURJPY

135.13-61

USDJPY

123.615-89

EURGBP

0.7023-355

GBPUSD

1.5551-77

USDSGD

1.3634-60

USDCHF
AUDUSD

0.9568-87
0.7372-0.7440

USDTHB
USDKRW

34.41-62
1149.1-1154.4

NZDUSD

0.6603-45

USDTWD

31.165-407

USDCAD

1.2937-69

USDCNH

6.2082-6.2110

AUDNZD

1.1141-1.1215

XAU

1093.3-1103.2

Key Headlines

Euro ended NY at 1.0938 and climbed to 1.0961 before

reversing back to 1.0924. There was touch of EurJpy
selling that helped prevent Euro stoploss trigger above
1.0975. Into late morning, on Stevens remark on rate
cut, AudUsd dragged NzdUsd and forced stops in
EurNzd above 1.6535. Keep an eye on the Greek
parliament vote today. Reform plans sent in excluded tax
on farmers.

Asians

Market got it wrong today. Asia walked in with Usd

trading lower and prompted some trend followers to sell
Usd. Unfortunately, Usd reversed and traded higher.

Usd/Asia opened lower and prompted some trend

followers to sell Usd. Unfortunately, Usd/Asia traded
higher amid equity indices in negative territory.

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said the decision to cut

rate is still on the table, Aud fell but he refused to be
dragged into putting a number when asked about the
level of AudUsd. Instead, Stevens said the Aud is
adjusting. Aud returned to 0.74.

UsdThb kicked off at 34.43; offshore banks were decent

buyers and took it up above 34.50 and then triggered
stops at 34.60. Hearsay more stop loss orders are
planted above up to 35-handle.

Greek parliament is due to vote on the reforms plan

today however, the bill submitted to parliament has
omitted the taxes on Greek farmers. FT said Greek
farmers pay only 13% tax as to the general 25% - which is
why Greeks who are not in agricultural are claiming
themselves as farmers. I wonder if this will hinder the
Eur86bn bailout program?

FX Flows
The Australian second quarter inflation numbers were
broadly in line with expectations but some of the
revisions were touch higher. Aussie trade 0.7403-40 on
the data but as Patrick Bennett puts it market moves
looks to owe to positioning not the data changing
outlook. AudUsd returned back to trade low of range;
ahead of RBA Governor Stevens speech. Prop guys are
looking to sell Aud near 0.7470-80 and stops at 0.7510.
RBA watcher David Bassanese put out a piece today and
continue to hold to his view that Aud needs to drop to
0.65 and will head to 0.68 end 2015.
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said the decision to cut
rate is still on the table this sent AudUsd to low 0.7372.
But his comments werent that dovish as to what market
had expected. When asked on the level of Aussie dollar,
Stevens said the Aud is adjusting. His refusal to be
dragged into putting a level on Aud got market covering
shorts and we were back to 0.74-handle.
EurJpy sold by Japanese exporters post-Tokyo fixing;
cross got down to 135.15 from 135.45. That took UsdJpy
to 123.615 where I heard very good buying scattered

Onshore spot UsdMyr opened at 3.7880 and was paid

straight away. As the onshore moved higher, so did the
NDF 1s back to 3.80-handle.
Like the Malaysia, onshore spot UsdKrw opened near the
lows and traded into the 1150-handle. Besides weak
Kospi, UsdKrw supported following comments from
BOK Governor Lee on MERS impact plus Finance
Minister Choi urging parliament to approve extra budget
this week.
UsdSgd is one of the pairs that ended the morning pretty
much unchanged. STI Index also flat.
31 consecutive days USDCNY fixed in the 6.11-handle.
USDCNH witnessed some buyers at open and crept up
slowly to 6.21-handle.

Who said what

BOK Governor Lee: MERS impact expected to last
through July August
South Korea Choi: South Korea faced risks including
China market volatility
South Korea Choi: Urges parliament to approve extra
budget this week
South Korea Choi: Increase portions of amortising
loans
IMF appoints Delia Velculescu as new mission chief for
Greece
RBA Governor Stevens: Financial stability is key to
lowering rate
RBA Governor Stevens: Rate cut question remains on
the table

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

 RBA Governor Stevens: Highly judgemental process

deciding if more cut dangerous
RBA Governor Stevens: Economic adjustment via
lower Aud seems to be occurring
RBA Governor Stevens: Aussie dollar is adjusting
RBA Governor Stevens: Have rate balance right at
moment but makes new decision each month

pullback across three of its four key commodities in the

coming year. BHP also took an impairment on
Wednesday of $US350 million to $US650 million,
mainly on its copper business.
http://www.afr.com/business/mining/bhp-billitonsmashes-iron-ore-guidance-takes-copper-writedowns20150721-gihb1s

News & Data

FT: Athens delays increasing farmers taxes

Athens has left a measure imposing higher taxes on
farmers out of a reform bill that is essential to securing a
new financial rescue worth up to 86bn. The bill, which
was submitted to parliament on Tuesday, includes an
overhaul of the civil justice system and the incorporation
into Greek law of an EU directive on procedures for
closing down banks in a crisis. The legislature will vote
on the measure on Wednesday. However, the radical
leftwing Syriza-led government of Alexis Tsipras, prime
minister, omitted a measure that would end decades-old
tax breaks enjoyed by farmers and a small but significant
minority of other Greeks who present themselves as
farmers for tax purposes.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2734f386-2f9b-11e58873-775ba7c2ea3d.html#axzz3gT82RBgi

Australia Q2 CPI Q/Q rose 0.7% from 0.2%

Australia Q2 CPI Y/Y up 1.5% from 1.3%
Australia Q2 CPI Trimmed Mean Q/Q unchanged at
0.6% (revision +0.7%)
Australia Q2 CPI Trimmed Mean Y/Y at 2.2% versus
2.3%
Australia Q2 CPI Weighted Median Q/Q 0.5% from
0.6% (revision +0.8%)
Australia Q2 CPI Weighted Median Y/Y unchanged at
2.4% (revision +2.5%)
David Bassanese: Spotlight on the RBA's
statement
Indeed, I suspect the $A still needs to drop to around
US65c before it starts to notably transform our trade
competitiveness and help boost key service areas like
tourism and education once more. At that exchange rate,
even pockets of Australian manufacturing might start to
look competitive again. My long-held view (since
February) has been that the $A would drop to US68c by
year-end, and I see no reason to change that view. Of
course, I had also been expecting the RBA to cut the
official cash rate to 1.5%, but theres a chance this might
now take a little longer.
http://www.switzer.com.au/the-experts/davidbassanese/spotlight-on-the-rbasstatement/#.Va7mw1qXFvQ.twitter
Hank Paulson in FT: Let Chinas markets speak
truth to power
Recent turbulence in Chinas stock market has led some
to conclude that the country stands on the brink of a
major financial and economic crisis. The rapid decline of
equity prices, these bears maintain, is a warning of
contagion to come. While it is no secret the Chinese
economy faces significant challenges and headwinds,
these have little to do with the sell-off in the stock
market. Rather, they stem from underlying structural
problems, including unfinished reforms to Chinas
capital markets.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8574a49e-2efd-11e591ac-a5e17d9b4cff.html#axzz3gT82RBgi
AFR: BHP Billiton smashes iron ore guidance,
takes copper write-downs
BHP Billiton has beaten its iron ore guidance, shipping
254 million tonnes for the year to June, but has flagged a

Kathimerini: As deputies brace for vote on

second set of prior actions, Tsipras lashes out at
critics
In comments to colleagues, which were relayed to
reporters by government sources, PM Alexis Tsipras is
said to have lashed out at critics within the party who he
accused of hiding behind the safety of my signature.
Referring to the tough deal he signed with creditors early
last week, Tsipras spoke of a compromise but one which
keeps us alive so we can keep on fighting. He sought to
rally the party to back the measures, noting that after
todays vote, attention will turn to negotiations with
creditors during which the government must try to use
every prospect for alliances, both political and social, in
Europe to secure the best possible outcome.
http://www.ekathimerini.com/199793/article/ekathime
rini/news/as-deputies-brace-for-vote-on-second-set-ofprior-actions-tsipras-lashes-out-at-critics
Kathimerini: Eurozone's have-nots ask: why
should Greece get more than us?
Slovak leaders have frequently shared their impatience
with Athens during Greece's debt crisis, which
culminated last week with a decision to give the country
a new bailout package worth up to Eur86bn. Prime
Minister Robert Fico said it would be "immoral" to write
off any Greek debt and he would call for Greece's exit
from the euro zone if Athens fails to meet agreed
conditions. One Twitter post by Slovak Finance Minister
Peter Kazimir, suggesting Greece's government brought
the harsh bailout terms on itself, led to a complaint by

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

the Greek ambassador, according to a Slovak

government source. The Greek embassy in Slovakia's
capital, Bratislava, had no immediate comment.
http://www.ekathimerini.com/199776/article/ekathime
rini/news/eurozones-have-nots-ask-why-should-greeceget-more-than-us
AFR Greece debt crisis: Why Greeks are bracing
for more economic pain this year
Greece may have bought itself a bit more time with a
third bailout, but its economic troubles are set to
continue this year, and possibly even get worse. We
asked 20 economists where they thought Greece was
headed. Their answers make for a depressing read.
http://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/greecedebt-crisis-why-greeks-are-bracing-for-more-economicpain-this-year-20150721-gihlwr
Yonhap News: N. Korea erects extended longrange missile launch pad
North Korea has erected a launch pad capable of firing
long-range missiles larger than those of the past, a
government source in Seoul said Wednesday. The 50meter-tall launch pad in Dongchang-ri, North Pyongan
Province, near the border with China, was extended to 67
meters and could be used to fire a long-range missile
around a key communist party anniversary in October,
the source said on condition of anonymity.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2015/07/2
2/0401000000AEN20150722000900315.html

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.