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Debating Russell Wilson's place in QB Tier rankings - NFL

Mike Sando , NFL Insider

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There's a theory circulating among a few of the NFL personnel evaluators, coaches and agents I've spoken
with about quarterbacks recently. It's only a theory. The Seattle Seahawks could blow it out of the water by
signing Russell Wilson to a monster contract. Until that happens, the theory will live in the minds of those
who like Wilson's game but do not love it.
The theory, raised by some of the 35 coaches and evaluators who participated in our second annual
Quarterback Tiers project, says the team could be reluctant to pay Wilson at the high end of the
quarterback scale. Why? For a few reasons -- reasons that made Wilson the most debated quarterback
our survey. Some of those appear below.
Eleven of the 35 voters placed Wilson in the highest of five tiers, but one thought he would not stay there
because defenses would solve him, especially if Seattle's own defense declined and running back
Marshawn Lynch retired. Twenty-three other voters put Wilson in the second tier (some of those voters
thought he would not ascend higher). A single voter placed Wilson in the third tier and did not waver during
a cross-examination I witnessed at a social gathering featuring this Wilson skeptic and another coach.
The debate begins with that conversation featuring a defensive coach, the Wilson skeptic (an offensive
coordinator) and me. The debate continues with testimonials from voters who placed Wilson in the top two
tiers, with and without conditions. It's a look into the notes I kept when the quarterback conversation turned
to Wilson this offseason.
The Tier 3 rationale
Sando: OK, so why is Russell Wilson a 3?
Offensive coordinator: Because I think he needs Marshawn Lynch and the defense to do what he has
done.
Defensive coach: That's not the way it really is because he is way better than you think coming from
behind in the two-minute offense. They've been way behind and he's rallied them back.
Sando: Pro Football Reference tracks game-winning drives. Wilson has 15 of them over the past three
seasons, most in the league.
Russell Wilson has a knack for fourth-quarter comebacks, but he doesn't have to throw as much as other
big-game quarterbacks.Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports
OC: Here is the thing. The Super Bowl against Denver, the game should have been over in the first quarter.
The two drives they kicked field goals, he is reading the wrong side of the field, and Jack Del Rio's defense
was not complicated. I think he doesn't see things well. I think he has to bail from the pocket. If they had to
score a ton of points to win, they would have a hard time. He went two quarters of the Super Bowl against
New England and almost did not have a pass completion.
DC: They have no outside receiving threats.
Sando: While you guys were arguing, I dialed up quarterback stats in the league since 2012 in
regular-season
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and playoff games when the opposing team scored at least 27 points. These
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regular-season and playoff games when the opposing team scored at least 27 points. These are the games
you're talking about. Wilson has a league-leading 75.8 QBR score in those games, followed by Peyton
Manning (71.2), Tom Brady (69.4), Aaron Rodgers (68.1) and Tony Romo (63.4). That is excellent
company. But Wilson has only 212 pass attempts in those games, compared to 574 on average for the
other guys. He hasn't been in those situations frequently. Seattle is 0-7 in those games with Wilson. The
other guys have a combined 23-42 in won-lost record, which is about 6-11 per man on average.
OC: What I see is an offense that needs to score about 13 points per game to win most of the time. Try
needing 25 a game sometime. That's a lot tougher.
Sando: That sounds like an exaggeration, but it's not far off. Seattle has allowed 15.7 points per game
since 2012, counting playoffs. The Seahawks are 2-9 with Wilson when the opponent scores at least 24
points, but as we discussed, those were some of Wilson's best games from an efficiency standpoint. He
has a league-best 80.9 QBR score in those games (Brady, Manning, Rodgers and Matt Ryan are next on
that list). It's fair to wonder how Wilson would perform if the Seahawks needed him to pass the ball more
frequently, but I think it's also fair to place Wilson in the second tier, at least.
A 'reluctant' Tier 2 vote
Offensive coach: I had him as a 3 last year. He is a reluctant 2. He has earned it in some ways because
of his success, but he is a 2 that cannot throw week in and week out to win a game, unlike Matt Ryan and
Philip Rivers and Joe Flacco if you had to. He is a different kind of 2. ... [But] Russell Wilson was the best
pick they ever made in their lifetime. It gave their coach and general manager second contracts and a
Super Bowl to validate their careers. They had a lot of that stuff in place before they picked him. They had
the rah-rah, the camaraderie, the team, but they could not win more than seven or eight games. He put
them over the hump. That shows you, you can do all the right things and still not be good enough unless
you have a guy that is [at least] average.
Definitely a 2 (but that is the ceiling)
GM: Wilson is a 2. He is not a Luck, he is not a Rodgers. I always think he is going to have to survive off
play-action. He has an uncanny ability, but without a strong running game, without a great defense, he is
not going to be able to carry that team.
Defensive coordinator: He is probably a better football player than he is a quarterback. I base my 1s on,
when s--- goes to hell, this guy can drop back and throw the ball and win the game. Wilson needs a strong
run game to win you the game, in my opinion. When push comes to shove, Brady can throw the ball every
play and win the game. Rodgers can do that. Those guys can take over a game.
Three unapologetic Tier 2 votes
Personnel director: He is a 2. I really like him. He has a chance to be a 1. He has to win it, not the
defense. He is doing it with a subpar cast on offense because the O-line has not been great and he does
not have great weapons. He has a great run game, and the offense fits him to a T. The defense and the
back win it for them now. They have a special O-line coach and some special things going on there in
Seattle.
Head coach: He is a 2. He manages the game well and beats people with his feet, but the 1s are players
that can win a game for you. I think he cannot do that himself. He has to have a supporting cast. It is a
great benefit to have mobility, but you cannot live off it.
GM:
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say 2, but he is a hard one [to grade]. He is different. You think of a lot of guys,
teams
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GM: I would say 2, but he is a hard one [to grade]. He is different. You think of a lot of guys, teams that
have success, does their quarterback not f--- it up, or does he win the games for them? I would not say he
wins the games for them, so I do not think he is a 1. Why do the Cleveland Cavaliers win? Because LeBron
James is a 1, and everybody else is a 4.
Wilson can become a 1
DC: He can become a 1. Early last year, I would have said no. But if you watched their playoff game
against Carolina this year, he was accurate as heck. He makes such good decisions. He is smart enough,
he works at it. As a pure quarterback, he is not in that mold like Manning and Brady, but he can become a
1 for a different set of reasons.
He's a 1, but that will not last
Personnel director: I have to give Wilson a 1. The guy comes to play. His passion and his thought
process and his ability to adjust, to improvise, is pretty amazing. People who sit back and say, 'Hey, man,
we're just going to cover their receivers,' he kills them. But defensive coordinators are good in this league
and will take away a lot of things and make things difficult. I think eventually people do figure out Wilson a
little bit, and his competitiveness will be the thing that keeps him going. You cannot win on that alone.
Ultimately, I think people will figure him out a little more and he will be a 2. I do not think he will always be a
1.
A wholehearted Tier 1 endorsement
OC: He is a 1. No reservation at all. People say he ran for 700 yards [849]. F---, defenses, it drives them
crazy. The problem is, the fantasy stuff has made everybody evaluate these guys based on numbers. You
make the most of the situation, and Russell Wilson, if they were throwing it like New Orleans, he'd be
throwing for as many yards as Drew Brees. He beats you doing the things he does. He is a 1 and he is up
there with Aaron [Rodgers] and [Andrew] Luck because of his uniqueness and all the s--- he can do.

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