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Forecasted WTI crude oil price development to 2020 (real USD 2006 per barrel)
USD/bl
135.00
Barclays
105 00
105.00
CERA 2
Goldman Sachs
15.00
0.00
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, EIA International Energy Outlook, Ministry of
Finance of selected countries, MEES, Samba 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 3
Several polluters should be considered in today's
discussion
Source of global CO2 emissions 2007
Anthropogenic
3.5 CO2 emissions
(%) 6.0% 5.5%
Combustion <1
3.0%
of biomass 2.0% 1.5%
41.5 Power Domestic Industry Comb- Trucks Pass- Air traffic Other Ships on
Oceans plants fuel and ustion of enger traffic open sea
small biomass cars
consu-
mers
USA
Canada
Australia California
China
EU
Japan
Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 5
Hybrid concepts reduce CO2 emissions
Mild hybrid
Micro hybrid
New
develop-
ments
150 Installed
electrical
power
Functions (kW)
• E-Recuperation • E-Boost • Electric driving
(limited) • E-Recuperation • E-Boost
• Start-Stop • Start-Stop • E-Recuperation
• Start-Stop
Source: Ricardo, TNO, IEEP, Roland Berger 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 6
Full hybrids especially help reduce emissions for
higher-weight vehicles
CO2 emission1) (g/km) per vehicle by weight
Diesel-Hybrid as full hybrid
Diesel-
hybrid
forecast
based on
cost-benefit
assumptions
Full hybrid
Mild hybrid
Micro hybrid
Comments
Fuel - 100%
Cooling
Exhau • Direct energy loss in combustion
st gas
system
– 45.5%
–
Mechanical
– 31.5% engines accounts for about 68%
23.0%
Gearbox
– 1.6%
%
of total losses
Accessorie
Heat loss to radiator Oil pump
– 0.5% • Losses from disposal of
s – 4.1%
– 18.7%
Charging – 1.9%
Water pump
Convection and
– 0.3%
Power steering
energy/heat of the engine
radiation
– 3.2%
– 1.9% through cooling system (2/3) and
Warm up
Residual heat 26.8% Alternator exhaust gas (1/3)
Road – 0.6%
at resistance
end of test
– 23.6%
– 25.8% • Out of 32% of mechanical energy
Charge air – 1.1%
Battery transformations only 8.5% are
Electrical
Intercooler – 0.8% Devices used for driving
– 0.9%
Thermal losses in
Rolling
exhaust pipes – 2.6%
resistance • Energy losses from braking
– 11.0%
Thermal losses
in catalyst – 2.6%
account for only 7.7% of total
Air resistance
– 6.4% energy losses
Exhaust gas Acceleration
heat losses – (Braking energy
losses
15.8% – 7.7%)
– 8.5%
100% 8%
640 4% 30% 640 640
100% 1% 1% 0% 98%
100% 4% 5% 20%
58%
320 320 71% 320
0 0 0
Bench- Start- Recupe- Optimize Rx 400h Bench- Start- Recupe- Optimize Rx 400h Bench- Start- Recupe- Optimize Rx 400h
mark stop ration operating mark stop ration operating mark stop ration operating
vehicle point vehicle point vehicle point
• Hybrids have no impact on reducing rolling friction, drag coefficient and vehicle weight
A × JT
Energy consumption =
R
• Thermal insulation
(RL)
and by
• Controlling the
thermostat ( TA)
DRIVING
STYLE
Weight
Kinetic energy recovery providing
Kinetic energy recovery
electric power
Efficient low-range transmission
Urban
Low MILEAGE High
Powertrain technology
Price
Importance of attributes
08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 13
Best vehicle types depend on annual distance
driven and driving conditons
Vehicle styles best suited to each driving style
Freeway
Low-tech, Non-hybrid,
aerodynamic, aerodynamic,
gasoline- 4-cylinder sedan
powered car
DRIVING
STYLE
Low-tech,
gasoline-
Lightweight,
powered, micro-
diesel/
hybrid,
hybrid vehicle
lightweight
vehicle
Urban
Low MILEAGE High
08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 14
Electric vehicle will be the next logical step from
hybrids
Low or zero-emission technologies and examples
Electric Vehicle (EV)
with "ICE range Battery Fuel Cell
Technology Hybrids extender" EV EV
Range
E-Motor 0 0 6-31 124-249 200-400
(miles)
Pure Electric Vehicles
1) If one regards total energy balance, CO2 reduction potential is significantly smaller than 100%
Source: Roland Berger Research 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 15 15
By 2015 battery driven EVs will grasp a significant
market share
40% of world population will live in cities
(>1 million people) & California will
require a share of Zero-Emission-
vehicles in fleet
1. Infrastructure to supply the fleet just in the US will cost over 500 USD billion
2 Hydrogen price at the filling station will cost at least twice that of gasoline
2.
1) PHEV = Plug In Hybrid Vehicle, 2) BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle, 3) FCEV = Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
Source: Fuel Cell Vehicles, US Department of Commerce, Argonne National Laboratory 08 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 17
ZEV are at least 2 times more efficient than fuel
cell cars
Overview of energy efficiency from Well-to-Wheel comparison for hydrogen and
electricity
Hydrogen Well-to-Wheel efficiency Electricity Well-to-Wheel efficiency
100 20 100 8
10
4 5
18 8
69
27
3 28
Electr. H2 H2 H2 Fuel Electr. Energy Electr. Power Battery Li-ion Electr. Energy
Well Prod. Transp. Compre Cell Drive left Well lines charger Battery Drive left
ssion Train Train
Efficient DiesOtto
Efficient gas engines Efficient diesel engines
engines
Communication/
Light weight body Integration,
…
structures vehicle/vehicle and
vehicle/infrastructure