7/31/2015

Like

AnalyticalGuidance:TurkeyIntensifiesItsRoleinSyria|Stratfor

100

Tweet

Analytical Guidance: Turkey Intensifies Its Role in

Syria
Analysis JULY25,2015|00:00GMT Print TextSize

TurkisharmyvehiclesandpersonnelwaitatanassemblyareainSuruc,neartheSyrianborder,Feb.23.(ILYAS
AKENGIN/AFPPhoto)

Summary
TurkeyischangingbothitsmilitarypostureanditspoliticalpolicytowardSyria.Formanyyears,astheSyrian
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/analyticalguidanceturkeyintensifiesitsrolesyria

1/6

7/31/2015

AnalyticalGuidance:TurkeyIntensifiesItsRoleinSyria|Stratfor

civilwarraged,Turkey'sprimaryfocuswasonremovingBasharalAssad'sgovernmentratherthanbattling
theIslamicState.AnkaraavoideddirectparticipationinthefightagainsteitheralAssadortheIslamicState,
limitingitsrolelargelytosupportingcertainSyrianrebelfactions.Onereasonforthisstancewaswhat
amountedtoanunofficialtrucewiththeIslamicStateunderwhichAnkaraturnedablindeyetoIslamicState
activitiesinTurkeyaslongasthemilitantsstayedquietwithinitsborders.Turkeyalsorefusedtohostany
substantialU.S.ledcoalitionairpower.ThelackofaccesstoTurkishairspace,combinedwithAnkara'shands
offpolicytowardtheIslamicState,conflicteddirectlywiththeprimaryU.S.missionofdegrading,ifnot
destroying,theIslamicStateastheperceivedmainthreatintheregion.

Analysis
AfterseveralrecenthighlevelpoliticalandmilitarymeetingsbetweenTurkeyandtheUnitedStates,thetwo
countriesappeartohavesettledtheirdifferences.Inrecentweeks,Turkeyhasmovedconsiderableforces
south,closingoffthefinalsectionsofitsborderadjacenttoIslamicStatepositionsinSyria.Inaddition,
AnkarafinallyopenedIncirlikairbaseandpossiblyotherairbasesforprimaryoremergencyuseto
U.S.ledcoalitionaircraft.Moreover,TurkeybegancarryingoutitsownairstrikesagainstselectIslamicState
positionsinSyria.
Aswellassealingtheborder,internalsecurityforcesbeganrollingupIslamicStatenetworks(andKurdistan
Workers'Partymilitants)inTurkey.ThetimingoftheseactionssuggeststhatAnkaraisexpectingabacklash
fromthejihadists.OnceTurkeydecidedthatactivelycombatingtheIslamicStatewasinitsbestinterests,it
wastednotimetoact.BynegotiatingadealwithWashingtonthatinvolvesworkingproactivelyagainstthe
IslamicState,Ankarawillhavetoaccepttheconsequences.Thatanticipatedbacklashmanifestedinarecent
carbombattacknotfarfromKobaniandaborderclashbetweentheTurkishmilitaryandtheIslamicState.
Butsofar,theretaliationhasbeenrelativelylimited.

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/analyticalguidanceturkeyintensifiesitsrolesyria

2/6

7/31/2015

AnalyticalGuidance:TurkeyIntensifiesItsRoleinSyria|Stratfor

The Impact in Syria

ThoughexactdetailsofAnkara'sdealwithWashingtonarestillemerging,thereisnodoubtthatincreased
TurkishinvolvementwillhaveasignificanteffectonthewarinSyria.
Firstandforemost,theTurkishmilitarymovingtosecurethebordersectionsabuttingIslamicStatepositions
inSyriashouldseriouslydegradeavitallogisticallinefortheIslamicState.Thejihadistgrouphasconsistently
beenembroiledinfightingalongtheentireperipheryoftheterritoryitcarvedoutlastyear.This
uncompromisingstrategyallowedtheIslamicStatetoexpandaggressively,butthejihadistshavestagnated
overallandarenowonthedefensiveinmanyareas.DefendingprovedtobeanunexpecteddrainonIslamic
Stateresources,atatimewhentheyarealreadytakingheavylosses.
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/analyticalguidanceturkeyintensifiesitsrolesyria

3/6

7/31/2015

AnalyticalGuidance:TurkeyIntensifiesItsRoleinSyria|Stratfor

AlthoughtheIslamicStatewasabletogainmuchduringitsrapidexpansion,includingcapturedmilitary
materiel,thegroupalsoreliedheavilyonextendedsupplylines.TheselinesallowedtheIslamicStateto
exchangecapturedresourcessuchasoilandhistoricartifactsforweaponsandequipmentaswellas
moneytopayitsfighters.Thesupplylinesalsokeptasteadystreamofforeignfighterscomingintoreplenish
theIslamicState'sranks,whichallowedittosustainahighattritionrate.Cuttingoffthesupplylinethrough
TurkeywillhittheIslamicStatehardonallfronts,especiallyastheeffectsofthecutoffaccumulateovertime.
TheopeningofTurkishairbasesmakestheaircampaignagainstIslamicStatepositionsinSyriamassively
moreefficient.ThepreviousdistancesinvolvedforU.S.ledcoalitionaircraftfromvariouslocationsinthe
lowerArabianPeninsulaensuredmidairrefuelingandlongerflighttimes.Greatlyreducingthedistancefrom
takeofftotargetsinnorthernSyriagivesthecoalitionmoreoptions.Theseincludevaryingweaponspayloads,
sortierates,thenumberofaircraftthatcanbeonstationand,mostimportant,persistenceoverenemy
territorythatwillimproveresponsiveness,intelligenceandsituationalawareness.Inshort,theaircampaign
willbecomeeasiertoconductinthisregionandcanbegreatlyexpandedifneeded.But,itwillnotbecome
moreeffectiveunlessthecoalitionincreasessurveillancecoverageandtrainedaircontrollersontheground.
TheincreasedthreattoIslamicStateterritoryinbothSyriaandIraqisnotlostonjihadistcommanders.Much
ofthegroup'ssuccessdependedonthequickmovementofforcesandmaterielbetweentheaters.The
fracturingofsupplylinesdegradesthiscapabilityovertime.Anditwillonlygetworse.Theaircampaign's
greaterreachintonorthernSyriawillinevitablydegradeIslamicStateforcesoverall,pinningsomeelementsin
place.Improvedloitertimealsomeanslesssanctuaryforhighvaluetargetshuntedbyincreasinglyeffective
airassets.Inturn,theseeffectsarelikelytoimpacttheIslamicState'scommandandcontrol.
Turkey'spolicychangetowardtheIslamicStatesolvestwoproblemsatonce.Turkey'sprimaryfocuswason
removingthealAssadgovernmentinSyriaandavoidingafullscalefightwiththeIslamicState.Thiskept
domesticsecurityrelativelystableearlyonintheSyrianconflict.ButtheIslamicState'sexpansiveterritorial
growthandaggressivenesstowardotherrebels(includingmanyTurkishbackedgroups)eventuallybecame
intolerableforAnkara.TakingmilitaryactionagainsttheIslamicStateshouldeventuallybringreliefforthe
northernSyrianrebelsfightingboththeIslamicStateandSyriangovernmentforces.ThisbringsU.S.and
Turkishinterestsintoalignment,andAnkaralikelyhopesthatthedegradationoftheIslamicStatewillleadtoa
coherentrebelforcethatcanfocussolelyonSyriangovernmentforces.ThecostofAnkara'spolicychange,
however,isthattheIslamicStatewillstrikeback.SomeattacksonTurkishsoilhavesucceeded,butinternal
securityforcesareworkinghardtomitigatetheireffectiveness,andTurkeyhastheforcestructureand
experiencetohandleinternalmilitancy.

Quid Pro Quo

Aswithanydeal,thereisreciprocation.TurkeyhasgiventheUnitedStateswhatitwantstofighttheIslamic
State,butWashingtonhasmadeconcessionsofitsown.TheselikelyinvolvegreatersupportforTurkish
sponsoredrebelfactionsinnorthernSyria.Theissueofreciprocityraisesaseriesofquestionsaboutwhat
otherchangesmightoccurintheongoingfight.
RumorsemergedrecentlythatTurkeycouldsendinafullscalemilitaryforcetocreateabufferzonethat
woulddisplacetheIslamicState(oranySyrianregimeforces)andserveasasafespacefromwhichrebel
factionscouldprojectpower.Technically,theactionsTurkeyhasalreadytakencouldaccomplishthisina
longertimeframe,butsuccessisnotassuredandTurkey'spatienceisbeingtested.Themainquestionwould
behowTurkey'sdomesticpopulationwouldreceivetheestablishmentofabufferzone.Turkeyisvery
politicallydivided,andanyovertTurkishmilitarymovescouldconceivablyoverlapwithAnkara'sKurdish
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/analyticalguidanceturkeyintensifiesitsrolesyria

4/6

7/31/2015

AnalyticalGuidance:TurkeyIntensifiesItsRoleinSyria|Stratfor

conundrum.TurkeyisfrustratedbytheamountofpositivepresstheKurdsreceivedastheonlytrustworthyor
effectiveforcefightingtheIslamicState.
TheTurkishmilitaryhasalreadymovedtheappropriateforcestructureintoplacetoestablishabufferzone.A
likelyindicatorthatTurkeyisestablishingthesafeareawouldbeasignificantincreaseinaerialandartillery
bombardmentofIslamicStatepositionsabuttingtheTurkishborder,thoughsuchactionmightnotbe
necessary.Turkeyhasavarietyoflevelsofinvolvementtochoosefrominpursuitofabufferzone,fromnofly
zonestothemanipulationofrebelforcesusingthetalentsofembeddedspecialoperationsforces.Turkish
dailyHurriyetreportedJuly24,citinganonymoussources,thatapartialnoflyzoneovertheTurkishSyrian
borderwouldbepartofthebroaderU.S.Turkishunderstanding.Thevolumeandlocationofairstrikesshould
becarefullymonitoredandreportsofforcesembeddedwithrebelsshouldbecloselywatched.
AchangeinU.S.policytowardsupportfornorthernSyrianrebelsshouldalsobelookedfor.Currently,the
UnitedStatesisstrikingonlytheIslamicStateinSyria,andthetrainandequipmissionitispursuingtocreate
theNewSyrianForceisintendedtofocusonthefightagainsttheIslamicState.Potentially,Washingtoncould
softenitsrestrictionsonthissupport.ThefirstfewtroopsfortheNewSyrianForceenteredSyriarecently.
NewlyarrivedU.S.coalitionairpowercouldbeanexcellentforcemultiplierforanygroundtroopsinthe
vicinity.AnysignthatsuchairpowerortheU.S.trainedNewSyrianForceisbeingwovenintoTurkish
backedrebelscouldpointtoaU.S.policyshift.Additionally,U.S.airpower,especiallythroughoperationsout
ofIncirlik,couldfacilitateanyofthebufferzoneoptionsthatTurkeyiscontemplating.
Inthelongerterm,Turkey'snewpoliciescouldleadtorealmilitarysuccessnotonlyagainsttheIslamic
StatebutalsoagainsttheSyriangovernment.Thisraisesthequestionofwhetherrebelpoliticalcoherence
andstructurewillaccompanymilitarycoherenceandsuccess.Adominantandsomewhatcoherentrebel
factionthatcanassumeresponsibilitygivenapoliticalresolutiontotheconflictissomethingimportanttolook
forincontext.
ForthealAssadgovernment,Turkey'sshiftshouldbealarming.AlthoughAnkaraisexpandingitsfocusto
includetheIslamicState,thischangewillhelptheotherSyrianrebelfactions,andeventuallyallpathslead
backtoDamascus.TheUnitedStates,ontheotherhand,willtrytousetheaddedmilitarypressureonthe
Syriangovernmenttopushforanegotiatedsettlement.Withthemomentumbehindtherebelsandtheir
sponsors,however,U.S.andRussianeffortstofashionsuchanagreementwillbehighlyconflicted.This
istheriskthattheUnitedStatesiswillingtotakeinordertoclampdownontheIslamicState.

Sendusyourthoughtsonthisreport.
Like

100

Tweet

EDITOR'S CHOICE

Cuba's Problems Beyond the Embargo

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/analyticalguidanceturkeyintensifiesitsrolesyria

5/6

7/31/2015

AnalyticalGuidance:TurkeyIntensifiesItsRoleinSyria|Stratfor

After the Nuclear Deal, a Region Recalibrates

Dokdo Island: A Case Study in Asia's Maritime Disputes

Analytical Guidance: Turkey Intensifies Its Role in Syria

RELATED CONTENT

Analytic Guidance: The Syria Crisis

Analytic Guidance: The Tenuous Balance Between Israel and Hezbollah Is at Risk

Analytic Guidance: Keeping an Eye on Sudan's Supporting Role in Gaza

RELATED SITUATION REPORTS

Turkey: 11 Countries Meet To Discuss Syria

France, United States: Countries Disagree On Role Of Iran In Iraq Action
Turkey: Buffer Zone With Syria Gains Momentum

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/analyticalguidanceturkeyintensifiesitsrolesyria

6/6