Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
There are limitations inherent in our theoretical model results, particularly with the fact that such results do not represent actual trading and
they may not reflect the impact material economic and market factors might have had on our decision making if we were actually managing
client money. Please see additional disclaimers and disclosures at the back of this report.
We highlight stocks that demonstrate solid growth at a reasonable price (GARP). Stocks selected for our model portfolio strategies all rank highly
for the following metrics, with an emphasis on proxies for cash flow growth and ROIC:
Relative Value
Operating Momentum
Analyst Revision Momentum
Fundamental Quality
Page 1
Commentary
The Core model and Opportunistic model hold the same stocks and use the same stock-specific price targets, with the Opportunistic
model portfolio occasionally moving to a 100% cash position during periods of extreme volatility.
The Core long model portfolio declined 2.31% in the month, with 14 out of the 25 stocks in the model underperforming the +2.01% in
the S&P 500.
The Opportunistic long model portfolio increased 0.64% by avoiding the market for nearly the entire month. On June 29, market-wide
volatility triggered a 20-day cash signal, so from June 30 to July 28 the model was assumed to hold 100% cash. The Opportunistic long
model reentered the market with a 70% stock and 30% cash position on July 29, and will stay allocated this way for another 15 trading
days.
Losses in the model long portfolio were led by the disastrous EP Energy (EPE) -34.3%, China Life Insurance (LFC) -15.1% and Navient
(NAVI) -13.8%.
The best performing stocks in the long model included Amgen (AMGN) +11.7%, Manhattan Associates (MANH) +11.9%, and OReilly
Automotive (ORLY) 5.4%, with each hitting their price targets on July 28, July 22, and July 29, respectively.
The model short portfolios performed well, declining 3.23% during the month. As a result the Core long/short dollar neutral model
returned 0.92% and the Opportunistic long/short model provided a theoretical return of 3.87%.
Looking ahead
14 stocks are leaving the long only model, 11 stocks are being held, and 16 stocks will be added at prices assumed as of the July 31
close.
Of the 16 new stocks, four of them particularly stand out: Cameron International (CAM), CBRE Group (CBG), PrivateBancorp, Inc.
(PVTB), and NuVasive, Inc. (NUVA). Of these four, we would focus on CAM and NUVA because they are brand new entrants into our
model portfolio, so there is a possibility that they have not received full attention from other portfolio managers yet. PVTB and CBG
continue to look strong, but the shock value of suddenly being discovered by new investors is probably low. If we had to pick one
stock idea to look at, it would be NUVA.
These stocks stand out in our rankings because it appears that reported fundamentals are trending upward more slowly than upward
consensus estimate revisions. In addition, they are trading at decent relative values, but not at a deep value, indicating perhaps they are
Ascendere Associates LLC
J. Stephen Castellano
Page 2
somewhat popular holdings that may catch fire at some point. Some other stocks that once fit this profile include Netflix (NFLX) in 2012
and Fossil (FOSL) in 2010. This is not to say our indicators our always prescient, but when stocks fit this particular ranking we do pay
close attention.
Also new to the list is Apple Inc. (AAPL), which our model has handled fairly well in the past. Southwest Airlines (LUV) is back on the list
after a disappointing decline two months ago when it was replaced by the better performing JetBlue Airways (JBLU). While JetBlue is no
longer part of the model portfolio, it still appears to be a very strong company it just missed the rankings by a negligible amount. We
are not happy to see Robert Half International Inc. (RHI) as part of our model. I cannot think of one time in which this model has
captured a solid run with RHI this might have to do with the fickle nature of the on-demand human resources business. Perhaps the
same goes for ManpowerGroup Inc. (MAN) as well.
Wayne Gretzky said it best skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. Quantitative screens like the one in this
report show where a stock has been and assume the trajectory is fixed. Of course, this is not always the case. The best investors will use
this model portfolio as guidance, and not the end all. At the same time, the model does well enough on its own, often beating the
indices with ease (though not this past month). With a little effort, we hope that active fundamental portfolio managers will do even
better.
I will give one example of how this screen can be enhanced, and how investors might use it to their advantage. Take a look at JetBlue
Airways (JBLU). It missed the cut-off for our screens by a negligible amount. But if it does not appear on our screen, it probably does not
appear on many others. Perhaps there is an opportunity here for investors that have the time to put in additional work.
Page 3
Ascendere Ranking
5 = Best
Relative Value
Operating Momentum
Analyst Revisions Mom
Fundamental Quality
Price 08/02/15
Shares
Market Cap
Rank
4
5
4
3
22.98
315
7,234
$
$
$
1.84
2.06
-
Cash
Debt
Other
Enterprise Value
CY1 PE
CY2 PE
Div Yield
(915)
2,033
(0)
8,352
12.5
11.2
0.0%
EV/LTM EBITDA
Price/Book
Total Capital
Debt/Capital
Debt/Enterprise Value
7.3
2.7
4,891
24%
24%
Page 4
7/31/2015 Rebalancing
Core and Opportunistic Long Portfolio:
27 stocks in the model portfolio = 3.70% weight per position
Close Position
Intercontinental Hotels Group plc IHG
O'Reilly Automotive Inc.
ORLY
EPE
EP Energy Corporation
MGIC Investment Corp.
MTG
NAVI
Navient Corporation
AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. AB
ORIX Corporation
IX
Western Alliance Bancorporation WAL
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL
EWBC
East West Bancorp, Inc.
CI
Cigna Corp.
Skyworks Solutions Inc.
SWKS
Fiserv, Inc.
FISV
Broadcom Corp.
BRCM
Hold/Rebalance
TSCO
Tractor Supply Company
CALM
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.
China Life Insurance Co. Ltd. LFC
PVTB
PrivateBancorp, Inc.
CBG
CBRE Group, Inc.
Centene Corp.
CNC
Amgen Inc.
AMGN
General Dynamics Corporation GD
AZPN
Aspen Technology, Inc.
Manhattan Associates, Inc.
MANH
Lam Research Corporation
LRCX
Page 5
Open Position
The Interpublic Group of Companies, In IPG
AutoNation, Inc.
AN
Cameron International Corporation
CAM
PUK
Prudential plc
NTRS
Northern Trust Corporation
NuVasive, Inc.
NUVA
China Biologic Products, Inc.
CBPO
Southwest Airlines Co.
LUV
Robert Half International Inc.
RHI
ManpowerGroup Inc.
MAN
PACCAR Inc.
PCAR
EA
Electronic Arts Inc.
Apple Inc.
AAPL
IPG Photonics Corporation
IPGP
EEFT
Euronet Worldwide, Inc.
LyondellBasell Industries N.V.
LYB
When the market anticipates an improving economy from low price levels, low-quality stocks will at times out-perform high-quality stocks as the
expected improvements in fundamentals are discounted from a relatively more depressed price level.
7/31/2015 Rebalancing
Core and Opportunistic Short Portfolio:
26 stocks in the model portfolio = 3.85% weight per position
Close Position
The Priceline Group Inc.
PCLN
News Corporation
NWSA
Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. LGF
Melco Crown Entertainment Limit MPEL
Targa Resources Corp.
TRGP
Enterprise Products Partners L.P EPD
Western Gas Equity Partners, LPWGP
Phillips 66 Partners LP
PSXP
Enable Midstream Partners, LP ENBL
Alkermes plc
ALKS
The Manitowoc Company, Inc. MTW
Colfax Corporation
CFX
LinkedIn Corporation
LNKD
Hold/Rebalance
Amaya, Inc.
AYA
NGL Energy Partners LP
NGL
Williams Companies, Inc.
WMB
Vertex Pharmaceuticals IncorpoVRTX
Cree, Inc.
CREE
Alibaba Group Holding Limited BABA
Autodesk, Inc.
ADSK
Yahoo! Inc.
YHOO
SunEdison, Inc.
SUNE
Methanex Corporation
MEOH
W.R. Grace & Co.
GRA
Page 6
TRIP
NGLS
WFT
COP
CVX
ENLC
ALXN
SGEN
ERJ
ACIW
PTC
AKAM
FSLR
CAVM
CCK
Return Data
6/30/2015 to 7/31/2015
Sector
Health Care
Information Technology
Consumer Discretionary
Industrials
Information Technology
Financials
Financials
Consumer Staples
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Financials
Financials
Financials
Financials
Information Technology
Information Technology
Financials
Information Technology
Financials
Information Technology
Health Care
Health Care
Financials
Financials
Energy
Company
Amgen Inc.
Manhattan Associates, Inc.
O'Reilly Automotive Inc.
General Dynamics Corp.
Fiserv Inc.
Jones Lang Lasalle Inc.
Privatebancorp Inc.
Cal-Maine Foods Inc.
Intercontinental Hotels Group plc
Tractor Supply Company
CBRE Group, Inc.
Western Alliance Bancorporation
ORIX Corp.
East West Bancorp Inc.
Broadcom Corp.
Aspen Technology, Inc.
MGIC Investment Corp.
LAM Research Corp.
AllianceBernstein Holding L.P.
Skyworks Solutions Inc.
CIGNA Corp.
Centene Corp.
Navient Corporation
China Life Insurance Co. Ltd.
EP Energy Corporation
Ticker
AMGN
MANH
ORLY
GD
FISV
JLL
PVTB
CALM
IHG
TSCO
CBG
WAL
IX
EWBC
BRCM
AZPN
MTG
LRCX
AB
SWKS
CI
CNC
NAVI
LFC
EPE
6/30/2015
153.52
59.65
225.98
141.69
82.83
171.00
39.82
52.20
40.46
89.94
37.00
33.76
74.52
44.82
51.49
45.55
11.38
81.35
29.53
104.10
162.00
80.40
18.21
21.76
12.73
Page 7
7/31/2015
176.59
64.82
240.31
149.11
86.86
178.04
41.34
54.16
41.83
92.52
37.97
33.83
74.55
44.76
50.61
44.38
11.07
76.87
27.47
95.67
144.06
70.13
15.70
18.47
8.37
Performance
15.03%
8.67%
6.34%
5.24%
4.87%
4.12%
3.82%
3.75%
3.39%
2.87%
2.62%
0.21%
0.04%
-0.13%
-1.71%
-2.57%
-2.72%
-5.51%
-6.98%
-8.10%
-11.07%
-12.77%
-13.78%
-15.12%
-34.25%
Target/
Date+1
Stop Date
Sell Price
7/28/2015 $
171.47
7/22/2015 $
66.77
7/29/2015 $
238.15
Return
11.69%
11.94%
5.39%
6/30/2015 to 7/31/2015
Sector
Information Technology
Materials
Industrials
Energy
Consumer Discretionary
Industrials
Energy
Energy
Information Technology
Information Technology
Energy
Information Technology
Energy
Energy
Information Technology
Materials
Consumer Discretionary
Information Technology
Energy
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
Health Care
Health Care
Company
SunEdison, Inc.
Methanex Corp.
Colfax Corporation
Phillips 66 Partners LP
Amaya, Inc.
Manitowoc Co. Inc.
NGL Energy Partners LP
Williams Companies, Inc.
Yahoo! Inc.
Cree Inc.
Enterprise Products Partners LP
Alibaba Group Holding Limited
Cameco Corporation
Western Gas Equity Partners, LP
LinkedIn Corporation
W.R. Grace & Co.
News Corporation
Autodesk, Inc.
Enable Midstream Partners, LP
Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd.
Lions Gate Entertainment Corp.
Priceline.com Inc.
Alkermes, Inc.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc.
Ticker
SUNE
MEOH
CFX
PSXP
AYA
MTW
NGL
WMB
YHOO
CREE
EPD
BABA
CCJ
WGP
LNKD
GRA
NWSA
ADSK
ENBL
MPEL
LGF
PCLN
ALKS
VRTX
6/30/2015
29.91
55.66
46.15
72.00
27.39
19.60
30.33
57.39
39.29
26.03
29.89
82.27
14.28
60.00
206.63
100.30
14.59
50.08
15.98
19.63
37.05
1,151.37
64.34
123.48
Page 8
7/31/2015
23.28
45.09
38.14
62.31
24.33
17.67
27.68
52.48
36.67
24.65
28.33
78.34
13.73
58.66
203.26
100.93
14.73
50.58
16.36
20.63
39.18
1,243.57
70.02
135.00
Performance
-22.17%
-18.99%
-17.36%
-13.46%
-11.17%
-9.85%
-8.74%
-8.56%
-6.67%
-5.30%
-5.22%
-4.78%
-3.85%
-2.23%
-1.63%
0.63%
0.96%
1.01%
2.38%
5.09%
5.75%
8.01%
8.83%
9.33%
Target/
Stop Date
7/27/2015
7/8/2015
7/10/2015
7/6/2015
7/30/2015
7/10/2015
7/16/2015
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
Date+1
Sell Price
25.80
45.09
43.84
67.83
24.33
18.69
27.51
Return
-13.74%
-18.99%
-5.01%
-5.79%
-11.17%
-4.64%
-9.30%
7/22/2015 $
27.41
-8.30%
7/17/2015 $
13.01
-8.89%
7/8/2015 $
14.78
-7.51%
7/20/2015 $
1,235.20
7.28%
MTD
YTD
Since
03/31/09
Sharpe
Core Model
Long
Short
Core Long/Short
-0.44%
0.12%
-0.56%
-2.31%
-3.23%
0.92%
9.40%
5.07%
4.33%
160.9%
78.5%
82.4%
1.04
0.56
0.75
Opportunistic Model
Long
Short
Opportunistic Long/Short
-0.44%
0.00%
-0.44%
0.64%
-3.23%
3.87%
11.90%
3.60%
8.30%
147.5%
23.1%
124.4%
1.23
0.12
1.25
-0.44%
0.00%
-0.44%
0.64%
-2.41%
-1.77%
11.90%
-5.12%
6.78%
147.5%
-83.3%
64.2%
1.23
(1.04)
0.69
-0.60%
2.01%
2.58%
105.34%
1.02
Stock Targets
* Return figures are calculated using cumulative simple returns. This table represents returns of several theoretical portfolios that do not assume any costs. This table is not to
be construed as advertising for any investment service. Real portfolios that attempt to exactly replicate these theoretical strategies will generate lower returns relative to these
models due to slippage, transaction costs, tax expenses and other costs. There are limitations inherent in our theoretical results, particularly with the fact that such results do
not represent actual trading and they may not reflect the impact material economic and market factors might have had on our decision making if we were actually managing
client money. We do our best to provide accurate information, but do not guarantee this. Please see additional disclosures and disclaimers.
Page 9
Page 10
Page 11
Core
Opportunistic
"Dollar
Neutral" 1
"Dollar
Neutral" 2
Long , Stock
Targets
Theoretical
Long/Short,
Stock Targets
and Portfolio
Targets
Theoretical
-0.22%
-2.31%
9.40%
160.85%
-0.15%
0.64%
11.90%
147.53%
0.48%
3.87%
8.30%
124.43%
-0.06%
-1.77%
6.78%
64.23%
-0.23%
2.13%
3.72%
118.74%
Absolute Risk
Daily Average
Daily Range
Daily Standard Deviation
Daily Return/Standard Deviation
0.10%
16.86%
1.46%
6.89%
0.09%
15.84%
1.13%
8.19%
0.08%
11.84%
0.93%
8.42%
0.04%
12.00%
0.81%
4.98%
0.07%
11.40%
1.02%
6.46%
1.33%
25.41%
23.2%
1.04
1.33%
23.31%
17.9%
1.23
1.33%
19.66%
14.7%
1.25
1.33%
10.15%
12.8%
0.69
1.33%
16.64%
16.2%
0.94
44.9%
-1.04%
-1.10%
-23
34.4%
-0.91%
-0.92%
-18
43.0%
-0.62%
-0.59%
-14
43.6%
-0.54%
-0.57%
-13
44.3%
-0.74%
-0.78%
-16
0.90
0.82
0.70%
0.69
0.48
0.85%
(0.05)
0.00
1.42%
0.04
0.00
1.28%
Regression
Beta
Daily Alpha
Jensen's Daily Alpha
1.29
0.035%
0.045%
0.77
0.026%
0.020%
-0.05
0.012%
-0.001%
0.03
-0.026%
-0.001%
1595
1595
1595
1595
Trading Days
S&P 500
Page 12
DISCLOSURES
Ascendere is in the business of providing equity research and related consulting services to investors and their advisors. The equity research it provides includes basic
quantitative model portfolios and more detailed fundamental research with respect to individual stocks. In addition, the firm manages stock portfolios for itself and clients.
Ascendere does not rate stocks on any scale, but does offer individual stock commentary and valuation opinions. With regard to Ascendere's portfolio strategies, "long" or
"high-quality" baskets should generally be considered buys, unless otherwise noted. Stocks in our "short" or "low-quality" baskets should generally be considered sells, unless
otherwise noted. While exceptions may occasionally occur, typically stocks in the high-quality basket are expected to outperform the S&P 500 over a month's time and stocks in
the low-quality basket are expected to underperform. A more relevant benchmark would comprise of all stocks and ADRs that trade on major U.S. stock exchanges with a
market cap above $2 billion.
Ascendere adheres to professional standards and abides by codes of ethics that put the interests of clients ahead of its own. The following are specific disclosures made by
Ascendere:
1) Ascendere may have a financial interest in the companies referred to in this report ("the Companies"). The research analyst covering the Companies and members
of the analyst's immediate family have a financial interest in one or more of the Companies.
2) Ascendere generates revenue from research subscription revenue and portfolio management fees. At any given time it may be long or short any of the Companies.
3) Ascendere does not make a market in the securities of any of the Companies.
4) Ascendere has not received compensation from the Companies.
5) Ascendere has not managed or co-managed a public offering for any of the Companies.
6) Neither Ascendere nor any of its officers or any family member of the covering analyst serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of any of the
Companies.
7) Neither Ascendere nor any of its officers or any family member of the covering analyst beneficially own 1% or more of any class of securities of any of the Companies.
DISCLAIMERS
This report is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation, or an offer, to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. The
report is not intended to be in furtherance of the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any individual recipient. Investment decisions should
be based on an individual's own goals, time horizon and tolerance for risk. The information contained herein accurately reflects the opinion of Ascendere at the time the report
was released. The opinions of Ascendere are subject to change at any time without notice and without obligation or notification. The officers, affiliates or family members of
Ascendere Associates may hold positions in the securities of the Companies. No warranty is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein. The views and
opinions expressed in the market commentary reflect the opinions of the author and may be based upon information obtained from third-party sources believed to be reliable
but not guaranteed. These opinions are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions. Ascendere disclaims any responsibility to update such views.
This information is intended for the sole use of clients of Ascendere. Any other use, distribution or reproduction is strictly prohibited. Investing in stocks includes a high degree
of risk, including the risk of total loss. This is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute a current or past recommendation, investment advice of any kind,
or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. All information, opinions and estimates are current as of original distribution by author and are
subject to change at any time without notice. Any companies, securities and/or markets referenced are solely for illustrative purposes. Past performance is not indicative of
future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance.
For Investment Professional use only. NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION. Any dissemination or copying of this commentary is strictly prohibited.
Page 13
J. Stephen Castellano founded Ascendere Associates LLC to provide innovative equity research and
investment advisory services that blends fundamental and quantitative approaches.
In general, our approach is quite simple -- we believe that return on invested capital and long-term
earnings growth are key to stock valuation. More specifically, we use powerful and unique financial
models that combine publicly available data, consensus estimates and our own inputs to generate
consistent and actionable stock recommendations.
Among the services that Ascendere provides are: 1) detailed custom equity research analysis; 2) valuation scenario analysis
studies; 3) supply /demand studies; 4) long and short stock idea generation; 5) portfolio feedback; 6) detailed fundamental
financial modeling services; and 7) additional analytical consulting services. Additional information is available at
www.ascenderellc.com.
Mr. Castellano has over 15 years of experience in equity research and related consulting work. At PaineWebber, Warburg
Dillon Read and Credit Lyonnais Securities he developed fundamental equity valuation models and conducted in-depth
research on the steel and telecom services industries. At Boston Private Value Investors, he developed quantitative models
for stock idea generation and also provided general fundamental equity research coverage. Steve received a MBA from the F.
W. Olin School of Business at Babson College (2005) and a BA from Oberlin College (1993).
Mr. Castellano's career history is highlighted below:
Page 14