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Perspective
Bringing you national and global economic trends for more than 30 years
August 4, 2015
Our best guess is the markets are currently in the late stages
of a selling climax in commodities and commodity-related
securities. We recommend investors begin to take advantage
of the recent carnage and look to increase exposure on
weakness to commodities (perhaps directly via exchange
traded notes), to commodity stock market sectors (materials,
energy, or industrials), or to commodity-biased stock markets
(e.g., Canada and Australia). We also think emerging markets
will likely do well again once the U.S. dollar peaks renewing
some strength in commodity prices.
In any event, as the chart suggests, the U.S. dollar and
commodity prices are a singular event. When the time does
eventually come, the financial markets will have to deal
simultaneously with two major trend changesa peaking
U.S. dollar and a bottoming in commodity prices.
Chart 1
U.S. commodity prices versus U.S. Dollar Index
Left scaleS&P GCSI Spot Commodity Price Index, natrual log scale
(Solid)
Right scaleU.S. Real Broad Trade-Weighted Dollar Index, inverted
scale (Dotted)
Written by James W. Paulsen, Ph.D., Chief Investment Strategist, Wells Capital Management, Inc., a business of Wells Fargo Asset Management
Wells Fargo Asset Management (WFAM) is a trade name used by the asset management businesses of Wells Fargo & Company. WFAM includes Affiliated Managers (Galliard Capital Management, Inc.; Golden Capital
Management, LLC; Nelson Capital Management; Peregrine Capital Management; and The Rock Creek Group); Wells Capital Management, Inc. (Metropolitan West Capital Management, LLC; First International
Advisors, LLC; and ECM Asset Management Ltd.); Wells Fargo Funds Distributor, LLC; Wells Fargo Asset Management Luxembourg S.A.; and Wells Fargo Funds Management, LLC.
Wells Fargo Funds Management, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company, provides investment advisory and administrative services for Wells Fargo Advantage Funds. Other affiliates of Wells
Fargo & Company provide subadvisory and other services for the funds. The funds are distributed in the U.S. by Wells Fargo Funds Distributor, LLC, Member FINRA, an affiliate of Wells Fargo & Company.For more
information about Wells Fargo Advantage Funds, call 1-888-877-9275.
Certain investments are distributed in the U.S. by Wells Fargo Funds Distributor, LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC, a subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company. Wells Fargo Securities International Limited, First International
Advisors and ECM Asset Management Limited are authorized and regulated by the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority. First International Advisors and ECM Asset Management are also registered with the Securities
and Exchange Commission in the USA.
Wells Capital Management (WellsCap) is a registered investment adviser and a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. WellsCap provides investment management services for a variety of institutions.
The views expressed are those of the author at the time of writing and are subject to change. This material has been distributed for educational/informational purposes only, and should not be considered as
investment advice or a recommendation for any particular security, strategy or investment product. The material is based upon information we consider reliable, but its accuracy and completeness cannot be
guaranteed. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. As with any investment vehicle, there is a potential for profit as well as the possibility of loss. For additional information on Wells Capital
Management and its advisory services, please view our web site at www.wellscap.com, or refer to our Form ADV Part II, which is available upon request by calling 415.396.8000. WELLS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT is a
registered service mark of Wells Capital Management, Inc. 000000 12-13
FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR USE ONLY NOT FOR USE WITH THE RETAIL PUBLIC
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