Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
/
)8785('(9(/230(1765(*$5',1*7+($,5&$5*20$5.(7$
6&(1$5,2%$6('$1$/<6,6
$5HLQKROG$.XKOPDQQ$%HFNHU33KOHSV
%DXKDXV/XIWIDKUW/\RQHO)HLQLQJHU6WU0XQLFK*HUPDQ\
$LUEXV2SHUDWLRQV*PE+.UHHWVODJ+DPEXUJ*HUPDQ\
7HFKQLVFKH8QLYHUVLWlW0QFKHQ%ROW]PDQQVWU*DUFKLQJ*HUPDQ\
$%675$&7
7KHDLUFDUJRPDUNHWLVKLJKO\VHQVLWLYHWRIOXFWXDWLRQVLQWKHJOREDOHFRQRP\FKDQJHVLQFRQVXPHU
EHKDYLRXUDVZHOODVHQYLURQPHQWDOUHJXODWLRQV(VSHFLDOO\GXULQJWKHFULVLVLQDQGWKH
GHFOLQH LQ IUHLJKW WRQQH NLORPHWUHV )7. H[FHHGHG WKDW LQ ZRUOG SDVVHQJHU WUDIILF E\ IDU LH D
GHFUHDVHE\SHUFHQWDQGSHUFHQWWRSUHYLRXV \HDUVUHVSHFWLYHO\6WDNHKROGHUVLQWKHDLU
FDUJRPDUNHWDUHKHQFHIDFHGZLWKKLJKXQFHUWDLQWLHVDQGWKHLUEXVLQHVVLVSURQHWRFRVWLQFUHDVHV
+RZHYHULQGXVWU\IRUHFDVWVSUHGLFWDVWURQJJURZWKRI)7.EHWZHHQWRSHUFHQWSHU\HDU
RYHUWKHQH[W\HDUVSRVVLEO\FKDUDFWHUL]HGE\KLJKYRODWLOLW\&RQVHTXHQWO\DLUFDUJRZLOOKDYH
WR EHFRPH PRUH UREXVW DJDLQVW H[WHUQDO LQIOXHQFHV LQ RUGHU WR FRSH ZLWK WKHVH DQG RWKHU IXWXUH
FKDOOHQJHV7KHVHGLIIHUHQWDVSHFWVDUHPDMRUGULYHUVIRURSWLPL]HGLQWHUPRGDOWUDQVSRUWVROXWLRQV
DQG LPSURYHPHQWV UHJDUGLQJ WKH FDUERQ IRRWSULQW LQ RUGHU WR DWWDLQ FRVW UHGXFWLRQV DQG KHGJH
DJDLQVWXQFHUWDLQWLHV
7KLV SDSHU SURYLGHV D VFHQDULREDVHG DQDO\VLV RI WKH DLU FDUJR VHFWRU ZKLFK DOORZV WR LGHQWLI\
UREXVWWUHQGVDQGWRDQWLFLSDWHULVNVDULVLQJIURPWKHPDUNHWHQYLURQPHQWSRWHQWLDOFRPSHWLWLRQRU
RWKHULQIOXHQFLQJDUHDVDQGIDFWRUV7KHDSSOLHGVFHQDULRPHWKRGRORJ\LVEULHIO\GHVFULEHGIROORZHG
E\ DQ RYHUYLHZ RI UHOHYDQW GULYHUV DQG GHYHORSPHQWV LQ WKH DLU FDUJR VHFWRU 7KUHH DOWHUQDWLYH
IXWXUHVFHQDULRVRXWOLQHGLIIHUHQWSRVVLEOHGHYHORSPHQWVLQWKHDLUFDUJRVHFWRULQWHUPVRILWVPRGDO
VKDUH RU WKH GHPDQG IRU DLU FDUJR JRRGV XQWLO WKH \HDU 7KH DQDO\VLV WDNHV VRFLDO
WHFKQRORJLFDO HQYLURQPHQWDO SROLWLFDO DQG HFRQRPLF FKDQJHV LQWR DFFRXQW )LQDOO\ VFHQDULR
VSHFLILF LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU DLU WUDQVSRUW VWDNHKROGHUV VXFK DV FDUJR DLUOLQHV IUHLJKW LQWHJUDWRUV
DLUSRUWVDQGPDQXIDFWXUHUVDUHGHULYHG
,1752'8&7,21
7KH DLU FDUJR PDUNHW DV D SDUW RI WKH DLU WUDQVSRUW
V\VWHP IHDWXUHV YHU\ VSHFLILF FKDUDFWHULVWLFV ,W LV
RQWKHRQHKDQGGHVFULEHGE\KLJKDYHUDJHJURZWK
UDWHV EXW RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG YHU\ VHQVLWLYH WR
IOXFWXDWLRQV LQ WKH JOREDO HFRQRP\ WR FKDQJHV LQ
FXVWRPHUEHKDYLRXUDVZHOODVWRQHZHQYLURQPHQWDO
UHJXODWLRQV
$ PDMRU UHDVRQ IRU LWV VWURQJ JURZWK KLVWRU\ DQG
SURVSHFWVLVRIFRXUVHWKHFRQWLQXLQJJOREDOL]DWLRQ
7KH VWURQJ LQFUHDVH LQ ZRUOGZLGH WUDGH YROXPH ZLOO
HYROYH IXUWKHU GXH WR HJ G\QDPLF SURGXFW
LQQRYDWLRQV RI DQ HYHU LQFUHDVLQJ QXPEHU RI
FRXQWULHV ZKLFK DUH SDUWLFLSDWLQJ LQ WKH ZRUOGZLGH
WUDGHFRPPXQLW\7KHDLUWUDQVSRUWPDUNHWLVDPDMRU
HQDEOHU RI WKLV GHYHORSPHQW ZKLFK PDNHV LW DOVR
YXOQHUDEOH WR IOXFWXDWLRQV LQ WKH JOREDO HFRQRP\
+RZHYHU LWV FDSDELOLW\ WR HDVLO\ FRQQHFW IDVW
JURZLQJ UHJLRQV OLNH WKH %5,&6 FRXQWULHV WR
LQGXVWULDOL]HG PDUNHWV HQWDLOV DQ LQFUHDVLQJ QXPEHU
RI URXWHV DQG WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI QHZ DQG EHWWHU
WUDQVSRUWLQIUDVWUXFWXUH
%UD]LO5XVVLD,QGLD&KLQDDQG6RXWK$IULFD
>Z
&KDUDFWHULVWLF
([DPSOHV
&DSLWDOLQWHQVLYH
+LJKYDOXH
UHODWLYHWRPDVV
DQGGLPHQVLRQV
0LFURHOHFWURQLFV
PHGLFDO
WHFKQRORJ\
FRPSXWHU
7HPSHUDWXUH
VHQVLWLYH
3HULVKDEOHJRRGV
)UHVKIRRGOLYLQJ
DQLPDOV
SKDUPDFHXWLFDO
SURGXFWV
7LPHFRQVWUDLQW
([SUHVVGHOLYHU\
6SDUHSDUWVDLU
PDLOSURGXFWLRQ
ERWWOHQHFNVUHOLHI
VKLSPHQWV
6KRUWSURGXFWOLIH
F\FOHV
7UHQGSURGXFWV
)DVKLRQWHFKQLFDO
HTXLSPHQW
6&(1$5,2352-(&7
7KH VFHQDULR VWXG\ SUHVHQWHG LQ WKLV SDSHU IRFXVHG
RQWKHIXWXUH RIWKHDLUFDUJRPDUNHWZKLFK LVIDFHG
ZLWK VHYHUDO FKDOOHQJHV UHVXOWLQJ IURP JOREDOLVDWLRQ
FXVWRPHU EHKDYLRXU DQG HQYLURQPHQWDO UHJXODWLRQV
7KHUHVXOWVZHUHGHYHORSHGLQDVSDUWRIDMRLQW
VFHQDULR SURFHVV EHWZHHQ 7HFKQLVFKH 8QLYHUVLWlW
0QFKHQ 780 $LUEXV 2SHUDWLRQV *PE+ &DELQ
,QQRYDWLRQ 'HVLJQ 'HSDUWPHQW DQG %DXKDXV
/XIWIDKUW7KHSURMHFWWHDPFRQVLVWHGRIH[SHUWVIURP
GLIIHUHQW ILHOGV RI VFLHQFH DHURQDXWLFDO HQJLQHHULQJ
FRUSRUDWH IRUHVLJKW HFRQRPLFV VRFLDO VFLHQFHV
LQFOXGLQJ H[SHUWV IURP '+/ DQG 780
DHURQDXWLFDO VWXGHQWV 7KH IROORZLQJ IUDPHZRUN
FRQGLWLRQV DQG NH\ TXHVWLRQV ZHUH GHILQHG DW WKH
EHJLQQLQJRIWKHSURMHFWVHH7DEOH
7DEOH6FHQDULRIUDPHZRUNFRQGLWLRQVDQGSURMHFW
UHODWHGNH\TXHVWLRQV
5HJLRQJOREDO
7LPHIUDPH
.H\4XHVWLRQV
0(7+2',&$/$3352$&+
,Q WKH IROORZLQJ VHFWLRQ WKH PHWKRGLFDO DSSURDFK
ZLWKLQ WKH VFHQDULR SURFHVV LV GHVFULEHG ZKLFK
LQFOXGHV DQ RXWOLQH RI WKH EHQHILWV RI WKLV SDUWLFXODU
WHFKQLTXH )XUWKHUPRUH WKH IRFXV RI WKH VFHQDULR
SURMHFW XQGHU FRQVLGHUDWLRQ LV LOOXVWUDWHG DV ZHOO DV
WKHGLIIHUHQWVWHSVLQYROYHGLQWKHDQDO\VLV
x
:KDWDUHWKHUHOHYDQWHQYLURQPHQWIDFWRUVLQWKHFRQWH[W
RIDLUFDUJRGHYHORSPHQWXQWLO"
x
:KDWW\SHVRIJRRGVDQGSURGXFWVHJPHQWVZLOOSULPDULO\
EHWUDQVSRUWHGE\FDUJRDLUFUDIWLQWKHIXWXUH"
x
x
x
6&(1$5,27(&+1,48($6675$7(*,&
,167580(17
6&(1$5,2*(1(5$7,210(7+2'2/2*<
>Z
7DEOH6HOHFWLRQRIHQYLURQPHQWIDFWRUV
WRGD\
IXWXUH
'HILQH
SUREOHP
$QDO\]H
HQYLURQPHQW
IDFWRUV
6HOHFW
HQYLURQPHQW
IDFWRUV
$QDO\]H
LPSOLFDWLRQV
'HVFULEH
VFHQDULR
VWRU\ERDUGV
'HYHORS
VFHQDULR
IUDPHZRUN
&DWHJRULHV
)DFWRUV
)DFWRUVVHOHFWHGIRUWRROEDVHGVFHQDULR
GHYHORSPHQW
(FRQRP\DQG
FRPSDQLHV
:RUOGHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQW
*OREDOLVDWLRQYVUHJLRQDOLVDWLRQ
(FRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWRIHPHUJLQJ
PDUNHWV%5,&
0DQXIDFWXUHU
3URGXFWDQG
'HYHORSPHQW
,QYHVWPHQWLQDLUFUDIW5 '
)UHLJKWDLUFUDIWWHFKQRORJ\GHYHORSPHQW
3ROLWLFV
/HJLVODWLRQ
DQG5HJXODWLRQ
3ROLWLFDOVWDELOLW\
,QWURGXFWLRQRIDYLDWLRQHPLVVLRQVWUDGLQJ
V\VWHPV(76
/RFDOUHJLRQDOQRLVH HPLVVLRQ
UHVWULFWLRQVDQGFKDUJHV
6RFLHW\DQG
&XVWRPHUV
*HQHUDOHQYLURQPHQWDODZDUHQHVVLQ
VRFLHW\
(QYLURQPHQWDODFFHSWDQFHRIDLUWUDIILF
'HPDQGIRUDLUFDUJRFRQVXPHUJRRGV
,QGXVWULDOFXVWRPHUVZLOOLQJQHVVWRSD\
IRUDLUFDUJRWLPHEHQHILWV
3RSXODWLRQJURZWKDQGGHPRJUDSKLFV
0LGGOHFODVVGHYHORSPHQW
$LU7UDIILF
0DUNHWDQG
2SHUDWRUV
&RPRGDOFDUJRWUDQVSRUWVROXWLRQV
0RGDOVKDUHRIDLUFDUJR
,PSDFWRIIXHOSULFHFKDUJHVDQGWD[HV
RQDLUIUHLJKW
(FRORJ\DQG
(QHUJ\
)XHOSULFHGHYHORSPHQW
$LUSROOXWDQWDQGJUHHQKRXVHJDV
HPLVVLRQVRIRWKHUWUDQVSRUWVHFWRUV
,QIUDVWUXFWXUH
$LUSRUWDQGWHUPLQDODUHD$7&
GHYHORSPHQW
'HYHORSPHQWRILQWHUPRGDODLUSRUW
LQWHUIDFHV
'(6&5,37,212)7+(6&(1$5,26
$VDUHVXOWRIWKHFRPELQDWLRQRIWKHWRROEDVHGDQG
WKH VXEVHTXHQW LQWXLWLYH VFHQDULR DSSURDFK WKUHH
DOWHUQDWLYHVFHQDULRVZHUHGHYHORSHGVHH)LJXUH
)RU HDFK VFHQDULR D VWRU\ERDUG ZDV GHYLVHG
DGGUHVVLQJ TXDOLWDWLYH NH\ VWDWHPHQWV RQ WKH VHYHQ
HQYLURQPHQWDODUHDVVKRZQLQ7DEOH
)LJXUH2XWSXWRIWKHVFHQDULRSURFHVV
6&(1$5,2$*5((1:,1*6
:LWKLQ WKH VFHQDULR *UHHQ :LQJV WKH JOREDO
HFRQRP\ UHFRYHUV IURP WKH UHFHVVLRQ RI WR
>Z
,QWHUPVRIHFRORJLFDODVSHFWVDFRQVLVWHQWUHSRUWLQJ
RQUHODWHGLVVXHVE\WKHPHGLDHQFRXUDJHVVRFLHW\V
PRYHPHQW WRZDUGV FRQVHUYDWLRQFRQVFLRXV DFWLRQV
(QYLURQPHQWDODFWLQJKDVEHFRPHDKXPDQPLQGVHW
ZLWKLQ VRFLHW\ 7KLV LQGXFHV D ULVLQJ ZLOOLQJQHVV RI
FRQVXPHUV WR FKDQJH WKHLU EHKDYLRXU HVSHFLDOO\ LQ
FRXQWULHV ZLWK D KLJK PLGGOH FODVV VKDUH +RZHYHU
DW WKH VDPH WLPH D KLJK VWDQGDUG RI OLYLQJ UHPDLQV
LQGLVSHQVDEOH DQG WKHUHIRUH FDXVHV WUDGHRIIV LQ
FHUWDLQ ILHOGV 2Q WKH RQH KDQG WKH GHPDQG IRU
OX[XU\JRRGVVXFKDVKLJKWHFKHOHFWURQLFGHYLFHVRU
IDVKLRQ FORWKHV ULVHV DV WKH PLGGOH FODVV IUDFWLRQ LV
JURZLQJ HVSHFLDOO\ LQ WKH %5,&6 DQG 1
FRXQWULHV 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH FRPSXOVRU\
ODEHOOLQJRIFRQVXPHUJRRGVLQFOXGLQJLQIRUPDWLRQRQ
WKHLUWUDQVSRUWFKDLQOHDGVWRDUHGXFHGGHPDQGIRU
SHULVKDEOH SURGXFWV WUDQVSRUWHG E\ DLU FDUJR
+HQFHLQFUHDVLQJHQYLURQPHQWDODZDUHQHVVFDXVHV
SUHVVXUH IRU WKH DLU FDUJR LQGXVWU\ WR LPSURYH LWV
HFRORJLFDO IRRWSULQW 2SHUDWRUV KDYH WR LQYHVW LQ
WHFKQRORJ\ DQG SURFHVV LPSURYHPHQW WR LQFUHDVH
WUDQVSRUW HFRHIILFLHQF\ LQ RUGHU WR HQVXUH
FRPSHWLWLYHQHVV ZLWK RWKHU WUDQVSRUW VHFWRUV
)XUWKHUPRUH ULVLQJ IXHO SULFHV FKDUJHV DQG WD[HV
RQDLUIUHLJKWFUHDWHDQHFRQRPLFLQFHQWLYHWRDGDSW
WR WKH QHZ HFRORJLFDOO\ GULYHQ PDUNHW VLWXDWLRQ
(VSHFLDOO\ WKH VLJQLILFDQW WLJKWHQLQJ RI QRLVH DQG
HPLVVLRQ UHODWHG UHVWULFWLRQV DQG FKDUJHV FUHDWH D
KLJKHUSUHVVXUHIRUFDUJRDLUFUDIWRSHUDWRUVWRLQYHVW
LQIOHHWUHQHZDO
1HYHUWKHOHVV LQGXVWULDO FXVWRPHUV EHQHILW IURP WKH
RQJRLQJ JOREDOLVDWLRQ WUHQG E\ H[SDQGLQJ WR RWKHU
PDUNHWV DQG E\ GHFHQWUDOLVLQJ WKHLU SURGXFWLRQ
$GGLWLRQDOO\ SURGXFW OLIH F\FOHV IRU HJ HOHFWURQLF
GHYLFHV GHFUHDVH 7KLV GHYHORSPHQW HQVXUHV WKDW
DLU FDUJR WUDQVSRUW VWD\V DWWUDFWLYH EHFDXVH LW KHOSV
>Z
UHJXODWLRQVDUHDWWHPSWHGWREHLPSOHPHQWHGDVSDUW
RI D JOREDO HQYLURQPHQWDO SROLF\ WKH HFRQRPLFDOO\
GULYHQ SROLWLFDO VXSSRUW DQG HVSHFLDOO\ WKH
XQFRPSURPLVLQJ HFRQRPLF JURZWK RI WKH %5,&6
FRXQWULHV UHVXOW LQ D VWURQJ LQHIIHFWLYHQHVV
FRQFHUQLQJ HQYLURQPHQWDO SURWHFWLRQ +HQFH
HPLVVLRQ WUDGLQJ V\VWHPV DUH LQWURGXFHG RQO\ RQ D
UHJLRQDO OHYHO D JOREDO KDUPRQLVDWLRQ VWLOO LV D
GLVWDQWSURVSHFW
6&(1$5,2&*52:7+:,7+287
5(*5(7
,Q WKH VFHQDULR *URZWK ZLWKRXW 5HJUHW
HFRQRPLFDOO\ GULYHQ SROLWLFDO UHJXODWLRQV VXSSRUW WKH
VWDEOH GHYHORSPHQW RI JOREDO ILQDQFLDO PDUNHWV ZLWK
DQ DYHUDJH *'3 JURZWK RI SHU FHQW SHU DQQXP
XQWLO %RWK SROLWLFV DQG VRFLHW\ SULRULWL]H ORQJ
WHUP HFRQRPLF VWDELOLW\ DQG VHFXULW\ RQ D JOREDO
OHYHO 'ULYHQ E\ RQJRLQJ JOREDOLVDWLRQ WKH KLJK
*'3 JURZWK LQ WKH %5,&6 FRXQWULHV ZLWK XS WR
SHU FHQW SHU DQQXP OHDGV WR DGYDQFHG OLYLQJ
FRQGLWLRQV DQG JURZLQJ SURVSHULW\ LQ WKH JOREDO
PLGGOH FODVV 7KH LQFUHDVLQJO\ HYHQ ZHDOWK
GLVWULEXWLRQLQ(XURSH1RUWK$PHULFDDQGWKH%5,&6
FRXQWULHV LQIOXHQFHV SROLWLFDO VWDELOLW\ LQ D SRVLWLYH
ZD\ 7KLV HFRQRPLF JURZWK VWURQJO\ GULYHV WKH
GHPDQG IRU SULPDU\ HQHUJ\ UHVRXUFHV $V D UHVXOW
WKHIXHOSULFHLVDWDKLJKOHYHOEXWUDWKHUVWDEOHGXH
WR WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI D JOREDO IXHO SROLF\ DQG WKH
SURILWDEOH H[SORLWDWLRQ RI SHUVLVWHQW RLO UHVRXUFHV
+RZHYHUKLJKIXHOSULFHVLPSO\KLJKWUDQVSRUWFRVWV
DQG WKHUHIRUH WKH DLU FDUJR VHFWRU LV IDFHG ZLWK D
VWURQJLQFHQWLYHWRDFWLYHO\LQYHVWLQIXHODOWHUQDWLYHV
6<17+(6,62)6&(1$5,263(&,),&
,03/,&$7,216
7KHVHGHYHORSPHQWVIRVWHUSROLWLFDOVXSSRUWIRUKLJK
UHVHDUFK DQG GHYHORSPHQW 5 ' LQYHVWPHQWV LQ
PRUH HIILFLHQW DQG VXVWDLQDEOH HQHUJ\ WHFKQRORJLHV
0RUH UHQHZDEOH HQHUJ\ SODQWV ELRPDVV VRODU
K\GUR DUH EXLOW KRZHYHU WKH %5,&6 VWLOO IRFXV RQ
QXFOHDUSODQWV
$OWKRXJK
JOREDOO\
KDUPRQLVHG
HQYLURQPHQWDO
>Z
7DEOH6XPPDU\RIWKHWKUHHVFHQDULRV
EH SUHSDUHG IRU $OO WKHVH FDVHV ZRXOG KDYH WR EH
FRQVLGHUHG IRU VWUDWHJLF GHFLVLRQV *DXVHPHLHU HW
DO6FHQDULRSURFHVVHVDUHDILUVWORFDOL]DWLRQ
RISRVVLEOHGHYHORSPHQWVDQGWKH\KHOSWRDQWLFLSDWH
SRVVLEOHIXWXUHPDUNHWFRQGLWLRQVWKURXJKWKLQNLQJLQ
DOWHUQDWLYHV 7KH UHVXOWV IURP WKHVH DQDO\VHV DUH
PRVWO\ XVHGDVDPDQDJHPHQWWRROWRGHULYHUREXVW
VWUDWHJLHV IRU GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ :LOVRQ
7KHUHIRUH WKH VSHFLILF LPSOLFDWLRQV KDYH WR EH
DQDO\VHGWKRURXJKO\
$ VKRUW FRPSDULVRQ RI WKH GLVWLQFW SDWKV RI
GHYHORSPHQW ZLWKLQ WKH WKUHH VFHQDULRV KLJKOLJKWV
WKH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ SDUDPHWHUV VHH 7DEOH
&RQVLGHULQJ HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW VFHQDULR &
*URZWKZLWKRXW5HJUHWSHUIRUPVEHVWIROORZHGE\
VFHQDULR $ *UHHQ :LQJV DQG VFHQDULR %
6XUYLYDORIWKH)LWWHVWVKRZLQJWKHZHDNHVWVLJQV
RI HFRQRPLF JURZWK &RUUHODWLQJ WR WKH HFRQRPLF
SURVSHULW\ LV WKH LQFUHDVH LQ UHYHQXH WRQQH
NLORPHWUHV 57. 7KH UHDVRQV IRU WKLV DQG WKH
FRQVHTXHQFHVUHVXOWLQJIURPLWDUHPDQLIROGDQGZLOO
EH HODERUDWHG LQ IXUWKHU GHWDLO ZLWKLQ WKH IROORZLQJ
VHFWLRQ
7KH HFRQRPLF SHUIRUPDQFH RI D FRXQWU\ KDV D KLJK
LQIOXHQFH RQ WKH HPSOR\PHQW UDWH DQG KHQFH WKH
OHYHO RI KRXVHKROGV GLVSRVDEOH LQFRPH ,I WKH
LQFRPH OHYHO LV ORZ KRXVHKROG VSHQGLQJ
FRQFHQWUDWHV RQ WKH QHFHVVLWLHV +RZHYHU ZLWK
ULVLQJLQFRPHOHYHOVSHRSOHVSHQGDKLJKHUVKDUHRI
WKHLU GLVSRVDEOH LQFRPH RQ OX[XU\ JRRGV 7KHVH
SURGXFWV LQFOXGHHOHFWURQLFVIRUH[DPSOH DQGRIWHQ
KDYH D VKRUW SURGXFW OLIH F\FOH 7KH\ WKHUHIRUH WHQG
WR EH WUDQVSRUWHG E\ DLU ,Q VFHQDULR & FRQVXPHUV
DUH PRVW ZLOOLQJ WR SD\ IRU WKH EHQHILWV WKDW FRPH
DORQJ ZLWK DLU FDUJR 7KH DLU FDUJR EXVLQHVV LV
KDPSHUHG WR D FHUWDLQ GHJUHH E\ HFRORJLFDO
UHVWULFWLRQVLQVFHQDULR$ ZKHUHDVLQVFHQDULR%WKH
GHFUHDVLQJ DYHUDJH LQFRPH FDXVHV FRQVXPHUV WR
PRYHWKHLUIRFXVDZD\IURPW\SLFDODLUFDUJRJRRGV
*UHHQ
:LQJV$
6XUYLYDORI
WKHILWWHVW
%
*URZWK
ZLWKRXW
UHJUHW&
*'3>SD@
57.>SD@
6RFLDO
ULVLQJ
HQYLURQPHQ
WDO
DZDUHQHVV
GHFUHDVLQJ
DYHUDJH
LQFRPH
JURZLQJ
PLGGOH
FODVV
MXVWLQWLPH
SROLF\
7HFKQRORJLFDO
LPSURYHHFR
LPDJH
HIILFLHQW
FDUJRDF
LQFUHDVLQJ
FRPRGDOLW\
FRVW
SUHVVXUH
LQHIIHFWLYH
DLUSRUW
LQWHUIDFHV
VXVWDLQDEOH
HQHUJ\
WHFKQRORJL
HV
RSWLPLVHG
FR
PRGDOLW\
(FRQRPLF
RQJRLQJ
JOREDOLVDWLRQ
ZLOOLQJQHVV
WRSD\IRUDLU
FDUJR
EHQHILWV
VWDJQDWLRQ
YRODWLOLW\
ULVLQJ
XQHPSOR\
PHQW
XQFRPSUR
PLVLQJ
HFRQRPLF
JURZWK
(QYLURQPHQWDO
SROLWLFDO
FRPPLWPHQW
SUHVVXUH
SHUFHLYHG
HQYLURQPHQW
DOEHQHILWV
WKURXJK
VWDJQDWLQJ
HFRQRP\
VWURQJ
SULPDU\
HQHUJ\
GHPDQG
IRVWHUV
LPSOHPHQW
RI
DOWHUQDWLYH
HQHUJLHV
3ROLWLFDO
%5,&6WDNH
PRUH
UHVSRQVLEL
OLW\
LQFUHDVLQJ
VWDELOLW\
LQFUHDVLQJ
UHJLRQDOL
VDWLRQ
LQVWDELOLWLHV
SROLWLFDO
UHJXODWLRQV
WRHQVXUH
VWDEOH
HFRQRP\
>Z
DQGDLUSRUWRSHUDWRUV
5LVNV
2SSRUWXQLWLHV
*UHHQ:LQJV
$
6XUYLYDORIWKH
)LWWHVW%
*URZWK
ZLWKRXW
5HJUHW&
+LJK57.
GHPDQGGXHWR
JOREDOJURZWKRI
PLGGOHFODVV
6WDJQDWLRQLQ
HQYLURQPHQWDO
UHJXODWLRQV
DOORZVORQJHU
IOHHWOLIH
*OREDOLVHG
SURGXFWLRQ
GHPDQGV
FRPSOH[
ORJLVWLF
VROXWLRQV
*OREDOLVHG
SURGXFWLRQ
VKRUWHUSURGXFW
GHYHORSPHQW
WLPHV
2WKHUWUDQVSRUW
PRGHVEHFRPH
LQVHFXUHDQG
OHVVUHOLDEOH
*OREDOLVHG
DQG
IDVWHU
SURGXFWLRQ
F\FOHV -XVW
,Q7LPH
*URZLQJ
GHPDQGIRU
KLJKYDOXH
JRRGV
&RVW
DGYDQWDJH
ZLWK RSWLPDO
FDUJR FDSDFLW\
XWLOLVDWLRQ
(QYLURQPHQWDO
UHVWULFWLRQVDQG
FKDUJHVLQKLELW
57.JURZWK
/LPLWHGDFFHVV
WRFDSLWDOPDUNHW
,QDELOLW\WR
PDWFKUDSLG
JURZWKRIWKH
DLUFDUJR
PDUNHW
(FRORJLFDOO\
GULYHQFRQVXPHU
EHKDYLRXU
6WURQJ
UHJLRQDOLVDWLRQ
/RQJFDUJR
$&GHOLYHU\
DQG
FRQYHUVLRQ
WLPHVXQDEOH
WRPHHWFDUJR
DLUOLQHGHPDQG
+LJK
LQYHVWPHQWVLQ
WHFKQRORJ\
SURFHVVHV
UHTXLUHGWR
LQFUHDVH
HPLVVLRQV
HIILFLHQF\
6HFXULW\LVVXHV
DVVKRZVWRSSHU
>Z
&21&/86,21
$GGUHVVLQJDOOWKHRXWOLQHGRSSRUWXQLWLHVDQGULVNVLQ
DQDSSURSULDWHZD\SRVHVPDQLIROGFKDOOHQJHVWRWKH
GLIIHUHQW LQWHUHVW JURXSV LQYROYHG LQ WKH DLU FDUJR
PDUNHW +RZHYHU DOLJQLQJ VWUDWHJLHV DQG EXVLQHVV
PRGHOV DFFRUGLQJO\ PLJKW KHOS WR FUHDWH D
FRPSHWLWLYHDGYDQWDJHDQGWKHUHIRUHVXFFHHGLQWKLV
KLJKO\YRODWLOHPDUNHW
>Z
5()(5(1&(6
$LUEXV *OREDO 0DUNHW )RUHFDVW
$YDLODEOHIURP
KWWSZZZDLUEXVFRPFRPSDQ\PDUNHWIRUHFDVW
>DFFHVVHG-XO\@
$6&(1' $LUFUDIW $LUOLQH 'DWDEDVH
/RQGRQ
%HFNHU$/LVW6 'LH=XNXQIWJHVWDOWHQPLW
6]HQDULHQ HUVFKLHQHQLQ 0LFKDHO 3=HUUHV,QJULG
=HUUHV
+UVJ
8QWHUQHKPHQVSODQXQJ
(UIDKUXQJVEHULFKWHDXVGHU3UD[LV)UDQNIXUW
%HFNHU $ 6WURKPD\HU $ =XNQIWLJH
5DKPHQEHGLQJXQJHQ IU GHQ /XIWIUDFKWYHUNHKU LQ
(XURSD%HLWUDJ]XU'*/5-DKUHVWDJXQJ
(HOPDQ 6 $Q HQKDQFHG VFHQDULR DSSURDFK
DVVHVVLQJ XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQ WKH UHDOL]DWLRQ RI QHZ
DLUFUDIW DQG WHFKQRORJLHV WK ,QWHUQDWLRQDO
&RQJUHVV RI WKH $HURQDXWLFDO 6FLHQFHV +DPEXUJ
*HUPDQ\
*DXVHPHLHU-)LQN$6FKODNH26FHQDULR
0DQDJHPHQW $Q DSSURDFK WR GHYHORS IXWXUH
SRWHQWLDOV 7HFKQRORJLFDO )RUHFDVWLQJ DQG 6RFLDO
&KDQJHSS
.XKOPDQQ $ 3KOHSV 3 (HOPDQ 6 $Q
DSSURDFK IRU TXDQWLILFDWLRQ RI TXDOLWDWLYH VFHQDULRV
DSSOLHG WR DOWHUQDWLYH DLUFUDIW IXHOV LQ 3URFHHGLQJV
&($6 (XURSHDQ $LU DQG 6SDFH &RQIHUHQFH
0DQFKHVWHU*%
0F.LQQRQ $ &2 (PLVVLRQV IURP )UHLJKW
7UDQVSRUW $Q $QDO\VLV RI 8. 'DWD $YDLODEOH IURP
KWWSZZZJUHHQORJLVWLFVRUJ6LWH5HVRXUFHVGFF
EFDD
DIHHDGGB&2(PLVVLRQVIURP)UHL
JKW7UDQVSRUW
$Q$QDO\VLVRI8.'DWDSGI
>DFFHVVHG-XO\@
3KOHSV 3 6]HQDULREDVLHUWH 0HWKRGH ]XU
|NRQRPLVFKHQ /lUP XQG (PLVVLRQVEHZHUWXQJ
]XNQIWLJHU
)OXJ]HXJNRQ]HSWH
'LVVHUWDWLRQ
7HFKQLVFKH 8QLYHUVLWlW 0QFKHQ 9HUODJ 'U +XW
0QFKHQ
:LOVRQ,)URPVFHQDULRWKLQNLQJWRVWUDWHJLF
DFWLRQ LQ 7HFKQRORJLFDO )RUHFDVWLQJ DQG 6RFLDO
&KDQJHSS