Climate model

This article is about the theories and mathematics of climate modeling. For computer-driven
prediction of Earths climate, see Global climate
model.

tions for mass and energy transfer and radiant exchange.

This is not a full list; for example box models can be
written to treat ows across and within ocean basins. Furthermore, other types of modelling can be interlinked,
such as land use, allowing researchers to predict the interaction between climate and ecosystems.

1 Box models
Box models are simplied versions of complex systems,
reducing them to boxes (or reservoirs) linked by uxes.
The boxes are assumed to be mixed homogeneously.
Within a given box, the concentration of any chemical
species is therefore uniform. However, the abundance of
a species within a given box may vary as a function of
time due to the input to (or loss from) the box or due
to the production, consumption or decay of this species
within the box.

Climate models are systems of dierential equations based on

the basic laws of physics, uid motion, and chemistry. To run
a model, scientists divide the planet into a 3-dimensional grid,
apply the basic equations, and evaluate the results. Atmospheric
models calculate winds, heat transfer, radiation, relative humidity, and surface hydrology within each grid and evaluate interactions with neighboring points.

Simple box models, i.e. box model with a small number of boxes whose properties (e.g. their volume) do not
change with time, are often useful to derive analytical
formulas describing the dynamics and steady-state abunClimate models use quantitative methods to simulate the dance of a species. More complex box models are usually
interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and solved using numerical techniques.
ice. They are used for a variety of purposes from study Box models are used extensively to model environmental
of the dynamics of the climate system to projections of systems or ecosystems and in studies of ocean circulation
future climate. The most talked-about use of climate and the carbon cycle.[1]
models in recent years has been to project temperature
changes resulting from increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.

2 Zero-dimensional models

All climate models take account of incoming energy from

the sun as short wave electromagnetic radiation, chiey A very simple model of the radiative equilibrium of the
visible and short-wave (near) infrared, as well as outgoing Earth is
energy as long wave (far) infrared electromagnetic radiation from the earth. Any imbalance results in a change in
temperature.
(1 a)Sr2 = 4r2 T 4
Models can range from relatively simple to quite complex: where
A simple radiant heat transfer model that treats the
earth as a single point and averages outgoing energy

the left hand side represents the incoming energy

from the Sun

this can be expanded vertically (radiative-convective

models), or horizontally

the right hand side represents the outgoing energy from the Earth, calculated from the StefanBoltzmann law assuming a model-ctive temperature, T, sometimes called the 'equilibrium temperature of the Earth', that is to be found,

nally, (coupled) atmosphereoceansea ice global

climate models discretise and solve the full equa1

5 EMICS (EARTH-SYSTEM MODELS OF INTERMEDIATE COMPLEXITY)

3 Radiative-convective models

and

S is the solar constant the incoming solar radiation The zero-dimensional model above, using the solar conper unit areaabout 1367 Wm2
stant and given average earth temperature, determines the
eective earth emissivity of long wave radiation emitted
a is the Earth's average albedo, measured to be to space. This can be rened in the vertical to a one0.3.[2][3]
dimensional radiative-convective model, which considers
two processes of energy transport:
6
r is Earths radiusapproximately 6.37110 m
is the mathematical constant (3.141...)

is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant

approximately 5.67108 JK4 m2 s1

is the eective emissivity of earth, about 0.612

upwelling and downwelling radiative transfer

through atmospheric layers that both absorb and
emit infrared radiation
upward transport of heat by convection (especially
important in the lower troposphere).

The constant r2 can be factored out, giving

(1 a)S = 4T

Solving for the temperature,

T =

(1 a)S
4

This yields an apparent eective average earth temperature of 288 K (15 C; 59 F).[4] This is because the
above equation represents the eective radiative temperature of the Earth (including the clouds and atmosphere).
The use of eective emissivity and albedo account for the
greenhouse eect.

The radiative-convective models have advantages over the

simple model: they can determine the eects of varying
greenhouse gas concentrations on eective emissivity and
therefore the surface temperature. But added parameters
are needed to determine local emissivity and albedo and
address the factors that move energy about the earth.
Eect of ice-albedo feedback on global sensitivity in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate
model.[9][10][11]

4 Higher-dimension models

The zero-dimensional model may be expanded to consider the energy transported horizontally in the atmosphere. This kind of model may well be zonally averaged.
This model has the advantage of allowing a rational dependence of local albedo and emissivity on temperature
the poles can be allowed to be icy and the equator warm
means that horizontal transThe average emissivity of the earth is readily estimated but the lack of true dynamics
[12]
ports
have
to
be
specied.
from available data. The emissivities of terrestrial surfaces are all in the range of 0.96 to 0.99[5][6] (except for
some small desert areas which may be as low as 0.7).
Clouds, however, which cover about half of the earths
5 EMICs (Earth-system models of
surface, have an average emissivity of about 0.5[7] (which
must be reduced by the fourth power of the ratio of cloud
intermediate complexity)
absolute temperature to average earth absolute temperature) and an average cloud temperature of about 258 K Depending on the nature of questions asked and the per(15 C; 5 F).[8] Taking all this properly into account re- tinent time scales, there are, on the one extreme, concepsults in an eective earth emissivity of about 0.64 (earth tual, more inductive models, and, on the other extreme,
average temperature 285 K (12 C; 53 F)).
general circulation models operating at the highest spaThis very simple model is quite instructive, and the only
model that could t on a page. For example, it easily
determines the eect on average earth temperature of
changes in solar constant or change of albedo or eective earth emissivity.

This simple model readily determines the eect of

changes in solar output or change of earth albedo or eective earth emissivity on average earth temperature. It says
nothing, however about what might cause these things
to change. Zero-dimensional models do not address the
temperature distribution on the earth or the factors that
move energy about the earth.

tial and temporal resolution currently feasible. Models of

intermediate complexity bridge the gap. One example is
the Climber-3 model. Its atmosphere is a 2.5-dimensional
statistical-dynamical model with 7.5 22.5 resolution and time step of half a day; the ocean is MOM-3
(Modular Ocean Model) with a 3.75 3.75 grid and
24 vertical levels.[13]

GCMs (global climate models or

general circulation models)

Main article: General Circulation Model

General Circulation Models (GCMs) discretise the equations for uid motion and energy transfer and integrate
these over time. Unlike simpler models, GCMs divide the
atmosphere and/or oceans into grids of discrete cells,
which represent computational units. Unlike simpler
models which make mixing assumptions, processes internal to a cellsuch as convectionthat occur on scales
too small to be resolved directly are parameterised at the
cell level, while other functions govern the interface between cells.
Atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) model the atmosphere
and impose sea surface temperatures as boundary conditions. Coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs (AOGCMs,
e.g. HadCM3, EdGCM, GFDL CM2.X, ARPEGEClimat)[14] combine the two models. The rst general circulation climate model that combined both oceanic and
atmospheric processes was developed in the late 1960s at
the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory[15]
AOGCMs represent the pinnacle of complexity in climate models and internalise as many processes as possible. However, they are still under development and uncertainties remain. They may be coupled to models of
other processes, such as the carbon cycle, so as to better model feedback eects. Such integrated multi-system
models are sometimes referred to as either earth system
models or global climate models.

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP),

hosted by the World Meteorological Organization
(WMO), coordinates research activities on climate modelling worldwide.
A 2012 U.S. National Research Council report discussed
how the large and diverse U.S. climate modeling enterprise could evolve to become more unied.[16] Eciencies could be gained by developing a common software
infrastructure shared by all U.S. climate researchers, and
holding an annual climate modeling forum, the report
found.[17]

8 See also
Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) (in
the US)
Climateprediction.net
GFDL CM2.X
Numerical Weather Prediction
Tropical cyclone prediction model

9 Climate models on the web

Dapper/DChart plot and download model data
referenced by the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
(No longer available)
ccsm.ucar.edu NCAR/UCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM)

Research and development

There are three major types of institution where climate

models are developed, implemented and used:
National meteorological services. Most national
weather services have a climatology section.
Universities. Relevant departments include atmospheric sciences, meteorology, climatology, and geography.
National and international research laboratories.
Examples include the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR, in Boulder, Colorado,
USA), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL, in Princeton, New Jersey, USA), the
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
(in Exeter, UK), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, or the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
(LSCE), France, to name but a few.

climateprediction.net do it yourself climate prediction

giss.nasa.gov the primary research GCM developed by NASA/GISS (Goddard Institute for Space
Studies)
edgcm.columbia.edu the original NASA/GISS
global climate model (GCM) with a user-friendly interface for PCs and Macs
cccma.be.ec.gc.ca CCCma model info and interface to retrieve model data
nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov NOAA / Geophysical
Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2 global climate
model info and model output data les
climate.uvic.ca University of Victoria Global climate model, free for download. Leading researcher
was a contributing author to the recent IPCC report
on climate change.
vimeo.com/user12523377/videos Visualizations
of climate models of ETH Zurich

10

12

Notes and references

[1] Sarmiento, J.L.; Toggweiler, J.R. (1984). A new

model for the role of the oceans in determining atmospheric P CO 2. Nature 308 (5960): 62124.
Bibcode:1984Natur.308..621S. doi:10.1038/308621a0.
[2] Goode, P. R. et al. (2001). Earthshine Observations of the Earths Reectance. Geophys. Res.
Lett. 28 (9): 16714. Bibcode:2001GeoRL..28.1671G.
doi:10.1029/2000GL012580.

EXTERNAL LINKS

11 Bibliography
Ian Roulstone and John Norbury (2013). Invisible in
the Storm: the role of mathematics in understanding
weather. Princeton University Press.

12 External links
(IPCC 2001 section 8.3) on model hierarchy

[3] Scientists Watch Dark Side of the Moon to Monitor

Earths Climate. American Geophysical Union. April 17,
2001.

(IPCC 2001 section 8) much information on coupled GCMs

[4]

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

[5] Seawater Samples - Emissivities. ucsb.edu.

On the Radiative and Dynamical Feedbacks over the

Equatorial Pacic Cold Tongue

[6] Jin M, Liang S (15 June 2006). An Improved Land Surface Emissivity Parameter for Land Surface Models Using Global Remote Sensing Observations (PDF). J. Climate 19 (12): 286781. Bibcode:2006JCli...19.2867J.
doi:10.1175/JCLI3720.1.
[7] T.R. Shippert, S.A. Clough, P.D. Brown, W.L. Smith,
R.O. Knuteson, and S.A. Ackerman. Spectral Cloud
Emissivities from LBLRTM/AERI QME (PDF). Proceedings of the Eighth Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Science Team Meeting March 1998 Tucson,
Arizona.
[8] A.G. Gorelik, V. Sterljadkin, E. Kadygrov, and A.
Koldaev. Microwave and IR Radiometry for Estimation
of Atmospheric Radiation Balance and Sea Ice Formation (PDF). Proceedings of the Eleventh Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Science Team Meeting March
2001 Atlanta, Georgia.
[9] Pubs.GISS: Wang and Stone 1980: Eect of ice-albedo
feedback on global sensitivity in a one-dimensional....
nasa.gov.
[10] Wang, W.C.;
P.H. Stone (1980).
Eect
of ice-albedo feedback on global sensitivity
in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model.
J. Atmos.
Sci.
37: 54552.
Bibcode:1980JAtS...37..545W.
doi:10.1175/15200469(1980)037<0545:EOIAFO>2.0.CO;2. Retrieved
2010-04-22.
[11] Climate Change 2001: The Scientic Basis. grida.no.
[12] Energy Balance Models. shodor.org.
[13] emics1. pik-potsdam.de.
[14]
[15] NOAA 200th Top Tens: Breakthroughs: The First Climate Model. noaa.gov.
[16] U.S. National Research Council Report, A National
Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling".
[17] U.S. National Research Council Report-in-Brief, A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling".

Basic Radiation Calculations The Discovery of

Global Warming
Henderson-Sellers, A.; Robinson, P. J. (1999).
Contemporary Climatology. New York: Longman.
ISBN 0-582-27631-4.
Climate Modeling 101 website by the U.S. National
Research Council This site is a primer on how
climate models work. The information is based on
expert, consensus reports from the U.S. National
Research Council's Board on Atmospheric Sciences
and Climate. The most recent is A National Strategy
for Advancing Climate Modeling.

13
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