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Florida’s Pine
Plantation Resource
Short of Sustainability

By John Morris

Pine plantation harvest exceeds growth and without a significant increase

in silvicultural enhancements and reforestation Florida’s pine plantation resource
is in jeopardy. Although current opinion states that pine supply is abundant in
Florida and will continue under current conditions, when pine resources are
analyzed in their component parts—natural and planted forests—it is clear that
plantation inventory is being liquidated.
To understand the supply of Florida’s pine plantation, and thus, the
relationship between pine plantation growth and harvest, it is important to
breakdown the pine resource into its natural stand and plantation components.
As illustrated in the Chart 1, as of 2007, inventory and net growth for natural
stands in Florida were 150 million tons and seven million tons, respectively.
Inventory and net growth for planted stands were 137 million tons and 12 million
tons, respectively. Combined, the total pine inventory (or, growing stock) was 286
million tons while net growth was 19 million tons.1
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CHART 1

While natural and planted stands, as a percent of current inventory, are

similar, the plantation portion of net growth is more than one and a half of that of
natural stands. Moreover, as the following bar graph in Chart 2 depicts, the level
of reforestation in Florida has decreased from an average of more than 200,000
acres per year during 1980-2000 to an average of less than 100,000 acres per
year during the last five years. This precipitous decline in the total number of
acres planted raises concern for a future wood supply heavily dependent on
plantations. It may also suggest a shift in land use away from silviculture. In
fact, given that approximately 200,000 acres are currently harvested in Florida
per year and less than half the acres are reforested, it is clear that growth, as a
function of total acres, is declining. Assuming three tons of growth per acre per
year2 and 100,000 acres per year being removed from the plantation forest,
plantation growth is reduced by approximately 300,000 tons per year.
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CHART 2

Florida p
Concurrently, while total planted acres have been halved, Florida’s pine
plantation harvest rate has been increased by more than 50%. According to an
F&W Forestry Services report in 2007, Florida’s pine plantation harvest rate was
52% higher than depicted in Florida’s Forests - 2007 Update. A survey of
Master Loggers in Florida, conducted by F&W in 2007, and discussed in more
detail below uncovered that fully ninety-percent (90%) of pine harvest is from
plantations.3 It is important to note that the U.S. Forestry Service (USFS)
removals estimate of 55% is based on an average of removals from 1995 to
2007. F&W data is based on survey responses in 2007.
In selecting a source for harvest data, two government sources and one
private source were considered. Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) removals
data indicated that 14.9 million tons of pine were removed.4 The 2007 Timber
Product Output (TPO) consumption data showed 15.6 million tons of pine
harvested.5 A third source, Forisk Consulting, LLC, reported 17.1 million tons of
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pine harvested.6 Forisk was deemed to have a more complete reporting base
and was therefore identified as the more accurate indication of harvest.
In addition to identifying accurate harvest information, classifying the origin
of the harvest—natural or planted—is also required to evaluate sustainability.
However, no published information exists that directly identifies the portion of
harvest emanating from plantations. One source of inference is the FIA removals
data, which reports 55% of removals are from plantations. As stated earlier, this
removals percentage is based on an average of removals over a 12-year period
and does not provide a snap shot, or even trend line, for plantation harvest as a
percentage of total harvest at a point in time. The master loggers survey
referenced above was part of a comprehensive study by F&W Forestry Services
based on responses from over 200 master loggers who collectively deliver more
than 12,000,000 tons of pine per year. The master loggers reported 90% of the
harvest was from pine plantations. By 2012, F&W predicts that portion will rise to
93%. The contrast between 55% removals (perceived harvest) from plantations
and 90% of the harvest from plantations is a major reason this assessment leads
to the conclusion that pine plantation inventory is not sustainable.
Although the survey results confirmed the suspicion of experienced
foresters and loggers who readily accepted 90% as the portion of harvest from
plantations, a level of skepticism continued to exist among a portion of the
forestry community. As a result, additional research was needed to identify if any
substantive information existed on harvest origins over the 12-year FIA data
period. It turns out, the Florida Department of Agriculture, Division of Forestry
has maintained data on both natural stands and planted pine silvicultural activity
as part of its efforts to track Best Management Practices (BMP). The Division
selects its implementation sites randomly based on predetermined flight lines and
level of harvest in each county. When the BMP Implementation data is
converted to a time line, a clear upward trend emerges. As Chart 3 illustrates,
the percent of BMP sites surveyed on pine plantations increased from 20% in
1981 to 82% in 2007. When considered in light of the F&W survey results of
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90% plantation harvest and compared to FIA’s 12-year average removals of 55%
percent, the BMP trend line supports both F&W and FIA (F&W being a point in
time and FIA being an average over the 12-year period) and further suggests that
a significant increase in pine plantation harvest has occurred.

90
CHART 3
80

70

60

50

40

30

Perce
20

10

0
1981 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Allotting 90% of the harvest to plantations reveals that plantation growth of

Surve
11.8 million tons is exceeded by plantation harvest of 15.6 million tons 7 (see
Chart 4). This deficit of 3.8 million tons per year is forecasted to increase with
time. The deficit will increase as growth decreases due to conversion of
plantations to residential, recreational, preservation, and other uses. The deficit
will also increase with increased demand from producers of biofuel, bioenergy,
and mulch. Additionally, if left unchecked, the steep decline in reforestation will
further negate sustainability.
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CHART 4

Understanding these issues will help us assess the present and future
state of our forests. Natural timber resource, which accounts for only ten percent
(10%) of harvest and is predicted to decrease, is becoming irrelevant with
regards to harvest. Removals, as depicted in Florida’s Forest - 2007 Update, is
an inappropriate estimate of the current harvest for plantations. The FIA data,
now two years old, represented an average over the survey period from 1995-
2007, whereas a comprehensive study by F&W revealed that 90% of harvest
came from plantations in 2007. Finally, annual reforestation acreage—which is
the basis for future growth—has been halved and therefore eventually growth as
a function of acres, will be halved.
Considering these factors together with an increasing demand for wood
from producers of mulch, biofuels, and bioenergy, as well as the increasing
pressure to convert plantations from commercial forests to alternative uses,
Florida’s timber resource is unsustainable. Action is needed now to prevent the
accelerated decrease of plantations so that our forests maintain a sustainable
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supply for current and increasing demands. Unless plantation growth is

enhanced and the plantation reforestation rate is significantly increased, the
outlook for pine plantation inventory in Florida will remain questionable.
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1. All inventory and growth data are from, Florida Forests – Update 2007 (data from Mapmaker 3.0).
Tons were derived by converting cubic feet to tons using 70 lbs wood and bark per cubic feet of
wood.
2. Florida’s Forests – Update 2007, Table 7.1 (Area of Timberland) and Average Net Annual Growth
of Growing Stock on timberland by forest-type group, stand origin, and species group (data from
Mapmaker 3.0).
3. Foley Timber and Land Company commissioned F&W Forestry Services to conduct the
Master Loggers Survey in 2007.
4. Florida’s Forests – Update 2007, Average annual removals of growing stock on timber land by
forest-type group, stand origin, and species group (data from Mapmaker 3.0).
5. SRS-153, Florida’s Timber Industry – An Assessment of Timber Product Output and Use, 2007
(converted to tons using 70 lbs of wood and bark per cubic feet of wood).
6. Assessment of the Pine Resource in Florida; March 10, 2008; F&W Forestry Services
7. 17.1 million tons of annual harvest divided by 98% utilization multiplied by 90% plantation harvest
equals 15.6 million tons annually.