2010-11

RAILWAY BUDGET – A PRIMER

Niraj Agarwal
http://nirajagarwal.blogspot.com/
Mamata Banerjee presented the Railway Budget on 24th Feb, 2010. It was her third budget.
Though widely regarded as a budget to please the voters of West Bengal, it has something for
everyone. This primer is an attempt to analyse the Railway Budget and present to the readers in
the most simplistic way.

Points that require special mention

 Use of Information Technology

o Use of RFID, Anti Collision Device (ACD) & SMSes to updates consumers about
the status of trains.
o Welcome move but require up gradation of infrastructure and acceptance by
all stakeholders, only possible if pilot projects are well implemented.
 Vision 2020
o Railways require a mammoth investment of 1400000 cr in next 10 years. Though
it has an impressive operating ratio of around 92%, it still needs 80000 cr of
borrowed funds to meet its grand plans. It will have an adverse effect on its
dividend and interest payout to the centre. It will have to increase consumer fair
in the short term to decrease its reliance on the borrowed funds as looses due
to this has been around 20000 cr for the last fiscal.
 Grand Indian Railways Vision 2020 – Key features include:
o increasing gross revenues of railways from 1.2% of GDP to 3%, and
o adding 25,000kms to the current route length of 64,099km (this compares with an
addition of 10,419kms during the last five decades). The Ministry hopes to
achieve this through government funding and public-private partnerships. While
the railways will be setting up a task force to clear investment proposals within
100 days of submission. Can the Railways really implement this?
 Will it impact the rising inflation
o The Railway budget announced today seems to be an extension of governments
efforts to curb inflation by reducing freight rates by Rs 100/wagon on food grains
and kerosene to indirectly reduce the food prices which has been increasing
rapidly over last few months and has become a major cause of concern. The
stocks that are likely to get some positives out of the move are KRBL &
Kohinoor Foods and some oil marketing companies.
 Cancer patients, who were granted 75 per cent concession in AC-3 tier and sleeper
classes will now be able to travel free. The minister has extended the 50 per cent
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 concession to dependent children of accredited press correspondents for travel along with
their spouse once a year. Banerjee has also reduced service charges on AC class to Rs 20
from Rs 40 and on sleeper class to Rs 10 from Rs 50.
 Addition of 1000 km/year? Ambitious or feasible?
o Since 1956 railways added on an average of 180 route km per year to take 53,596
km of railway connectivity to 64015 km, which is dismal compared to global
average.
o The government has realized this now and is taking positive steps by planning to
complete 1000 kms new lines in next one year. The government has taken more
aggressive steps by setting a target of 25,000 km new lines over next 10 years.
The stocks that are likely to get some positives out of the move are KRSS
Infrastructure & Kalindee Rail.
 In general the budget speech is going to have some impact on the following stocks –

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The Financial Highlights are as follows –

Apart from the above the salient points of the budget were –
Railway Minister Mamata Banerjee appeals to business houses to join hands for building
partnership with Railways. Presenting Railway Budget for 2010-11, Banerjee says a
special task force will be set up for early clearance of projects.
No fare hike for passengers.
Railways not to be privatised; It will remain with the government, While not privatising,
Railways have to develop business models for improving earnings.
Railways 2020 vision document will contain short, medium and long-term goals.
Commitments fulfilled to the maximum. Out of 120 trains announced in last budget, only
three remain to be flagged off because of lack of broad-gauge lines.
Plans to launch a pilot project for fire detection.The government also plans to construct
more underpasses for safety.
Railways to start six water bottling plants in places like Ambala, Thiruvananthapuram,
Farakka, Amethi and Nasik to provide clean and cheap drinking water to passengers.
Indian Railways aims to add 25,000 route kilometers by 2020. The railways currently has
64,015 route kilometers.
India's railways has set up a special task force to clear investment proposals in 100 days.
Indian Railways plans to keep rail freight rates unchanged.

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 Railways to set up mobile e-ticketing centres at hospitals, universities, courts, IITs, IIMs,
district headquarters and village panchayats. All 13,000 unmanned level crossings to be
manned in the next five years.
Railway Protection Force to be strengthened through amendments in RPF Act; women's
wing to be formed in RPF to ensure security of women. Ex-servicemen to be inducted in
RPF. Railways will be the lead partner in the Commonwealth Games in Delhi.
Railways to set up Rabindra Museum in Howrah and Geetanjali Museum in Bolpur --
both in West Bengal -- tocommemorate Rabindranath Tagore's 125th birth anniversary.
Railways will provide houses to all its employees in the the next 10 years in collaboration
with the Urban Development ministry.
Railways to enhance contribution to central staff benefit fund. Centre for Railway
Research to be set up at IIT-Kharagpur. Chittaranjan Locomotive Works capacity to be
augmented from 200 to 275 engines a year.
Work on Rae Bareli Coach Factory in Uttar Pradesh to start within a year. Wagon Repair
Shop to be set up in Badnera near Amravati in Maharashtra.
Integral Coach Factory in Chennai to be modernised and a new unit to be set up there. If
land is available, Railways willing to set up a Diesel Multiple Unit factory in West
Bengal.
No forcible acquisition of land for freight corridor project. One member of each family of
land losers to be given employment in the freight corridor as also in the new projects.
High-speed dedicated passenger corridors to be constructed; National High Speed Rail
Authority to be set up.
Revenue from non-core business of Railways to go up from Rs 150 crore to Rs 1,000
crore. Indian Railways has set a target to transport 944 million tons of goods in the year
beginning April 1.
Railways expects to increase earnings from non core activities. The government aims to
increase non core earnings to Rs10 billion rupees from Rs1.5 billion.
Railways expects to increase earnings from non core activities. The government aims to
increase non core earnings to Rs10 billion rupees from Rs1.5 billion.
Despite slowdown, Railways to exceed freight loading target by eight million tonnes
during 2009-10. Freight loading target for 2010-11 fixed at 944 million tonnes, 54
million tonnes more than the current year's revised target. Gross traffic receipt for 2010-
11 pegged at Rs94,765 crore.
Allocation for construction of new lines increased from Rs2848 crore to Rs 4411 crore.
Rs1,302 crore provided for passenger amenities in the 2010-11 railway budget against Rs
923 crore last year.
Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC) will borrow 91.2 billion rupees ($1.97
billion) from the market in 2010-11.

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 Railways to have master plan for North Eastern region. Special train between India and
Bangladesh to be started to commemorate 150th birth anniversary of Rabindranath
Tagore.
101 additional services to start on Mumbai suburban railways. Survey will be conducted
to connect Sealdah and Howrah stations in West Bengal. To commemorate Rabindranath
Tagore's 150th birth anniversary, 'Bharat Teertha' trains to connect several pilgrimage
centres across the country.
Indian Railway Finance Corporation will borrow Rs91.2 billion ($1.97 billion) from the
market in 2010-11.

* To conclude, Railway Budget is full of promises and it has to be seen whether the
projections can bear the test of time. The “vision 2020” and the PPP model can only be
successful if the corporate are guaranteed the required return on investment considering
the high gestation period and delayed in implementing such projects.

From the capital market point of view the budget looks very neutral. The announcements
such as infrastructure spending, setting up new plants and concessions on freight rates are
going to favourably stocks such as Titagarh Wagons, Texmaco, Kalindi Rail Nirman,
Kernex, Stone India, Hindustan Rectifiers, Arshiya International and Container
Corporation but the investor at large must keep in mind the high valuations these stocks
currently enjoy and hence look for current valuation to enter such scripts.

Hope you find the primer useful and would look for feedbacks and suggestions on my blog.

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