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BANGLADESH IN 1975:
THE FALL OF THE MUJIBREGIME
AND ITS AFTERMATH
TalukderManiruzzaman
The Constitutional
Coup of January25, 1975:
The Introduction
of a PresidentialOne-partySystem
The author learned fromauthoritativesourcesthat the idea of a
single-party
systemwas firstsold to Sheikh Fazlul Huq Moni (Sheikh
1 For a detailed study of the polarization of the Awami League and the radical
parties,see T. Maniruzzaman,"Bangladesh: An UnfinishedRevolution?", The Journal of Asian Studies, XXXIV:4, August 1975, pp. 891-911.
119
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TALUKDERMANINUZZAMAN
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BANGLADESH
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TALUKDERMANINUZZAMAN
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BANGLADESH
123
the Mushtaqgovernment,
only a fewhoursafterthe coup.7
Saudi
Post-coup Bangladesh
The new governmentheaded by PresidentMushtaq retained ten
of theeighteenMinistersand eightof the nine Ministersof stateof the
Mujib government.There was no resistanceat all fromthe people. In
the firstfewdays the situationat the top remainedfluid,with the majors who led thecoup stayingwithPresidentMushtaq at Banga Bhavan
guardedby tanks,while the sullen seniorofficers
remainedin the Cantonment.The fearof an Indian intervention,
however,had a sobering
effecton both the leadersof the coup and seniorofficers,
and negotiations went on between them. In the second week after the coup, a
in thearmytookplace. Major-GeneralZiaur Rahman,
major reshuffling
theDeputyChiefof Staff,replacedMajor-GeneralSafiullahas the Chief
of Staffof theArmy.Some of the seniorofficers
and manyof thejunior
were promoted.A revolutionarycouncil consistingof the five
officers
of the defenseforces
majors who had led the coup and senior officers
was formed.While the Mushtaq governmentcarriedon the civil administration,the revolutionarycouncil devoted itself to the task of
See "Bangladesh's New Friends," New Statesman,August 22, 1975, p. 217.
7See The Daily Ittefaq (Decca), August 16, 1975. Pakistan soon after donated
$50 million worthof rice and cloth.
8See The Bangladesh Times (Dacca), August 17, 1975.
9Far Eastern Economic Review, October 31, 1975, p. 5.
6
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TALUKDERMANINUZZAMAN
forceson duty. On October 23, leafletsblaming the Mushtaq governmentforthe killingof Sheikh Mujib and the workersin the Adamjee
Jute Mills were distributedwidely in Dacca. Soon other leafletsfollowed demandingthe punishmentof the "Killers of Sheikh Mujib"
and the restorationof constitutionalgovernmentby the release of the
arrestedBKSAL leaders.
On November3, several senior officersled by Brigadier Khaled
Musharrafstageda second coup. In supportof the new coup leaders,a
processionconsistingmainly of leaders and studentsof pro-Moscow
groups was taken out from the Dacca Universitycampus to Sheikh
Mujib's formerresidence to observe "Bangabandhu Memorial Day."
The leadersof the November3 coup negotiatedwith PresidentMushtaq, and allowed a safe passage to Bangkok for the 15 militaryofficers
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BANGLADESH
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TALUKDERMANINUZZAMAN
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BANGLADESH 127
95% of the people of the country.The JSD leaders assertedthat their
partywas the truenationalistpartyof theproletariat,and chargedthat
the other "so-called" revolutionaryparties had been behaving in the
patternof various "pseudo revolutionary"partiesof Russia who had
accused Lenin of being a Germanagentbeforethe October Revolution
of 1917. The main targetof the radical parties' attack,Sirajul Alam
Khan, the leader of the undergroundorgan of the JSD, and his underground cadres,however,escaped arrest.
Trendsin BangladeshEconomy
The economic conditionof Bangladesh improvedsignificantly
in
the year 1975 fromthe totallydismal picture that had prevailed in
1974. By January1975 the priceof rice (the staple food in Bangladesh)
had risenby 500% overthe 1969-70level. By Julythe price came down
to 300%. FromJulyto Septemberthe price of rice fellby another37%
and the costof livingindex fellby 9%O.During the same period money
supplydeclinedby 3.5% and bank depositsby 5.6%.13 Declining trends
in thepriceofrice,thecostof livingindex, themoneysupplyand bank
depositscontinuedin the monthsfollowingSeptember.
The most importantreason for the downward trend in the conand cost-of-living
indiceshas been the good harvestin 1975
sumer-price
-a year which was not marked by the vagaries of nature such as
drought,floodsand cyclones.It was estimatedthata totalof 13.6 million
tonsof foodgrains,including200,000tonsof wheat,would be produced
by the end of the year. As the yearlyrequirementof foodgrainsfor
Bangladeshis about 12.8million tons,therewill be a surplusof 800,000
tons. Besides, 1.3 tons of foodgrainshave already been received from
abroad as aids, loans and grants,and another 700,000 tons are in the
pipeline. Thus, the totalsurplusof food grainsin 1975 shouldbe about
2.8 milliontons.14The secondimportantreasonfortheimprovementin
economicconditionsin 1975was thevariousfiscalmeasuresadopted by
the governmentto check the run-awayinflationthat had plagued the
Bangladesheconomysince liberation.First,the governmentfromthe
beginningof 1975 adopted a "credit squeeze" policy. Secondly, the
governmentin April 1975 demonitized100-Taka notes and thusdrove
some "black money" out of circulation.Thirdly, the governmentreduced customduties on certainessentialconsumergoods. Anotherfactor in the improvementof economicconditionsin Bangladeshwas the
reductionin the scale of smuggling.Here again the dernonitizationof
100-Taka notes destroyed,to some extent,the "black money" in the
hands of the smugglerson both sides of the border.More importantly,
since the August 15 coup, the smugglersin Bangladesh have lost the
patronageof powerfulcirclesin the formerMujib government.
13 The figureswere supplied to the author by A. N. A. Rahim, Economic Adviser, Bangladesh Bank, Dacca.
14 The Daily Ittefaq, November 25, 1975.
ffl
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128
TALUKDERMANINUZZAMAN
Primarilybecause of the devaluationof the Taka as of May 17, export earningsin the firstquarterof the 1975-76 financialyearrose by
24% over the figuresforthe same period in 1974-75.Productionin all
industries,with the importantexceptionof the jute industry,went up
in the last half of 1975 over the correspondingperiod in
significantly
Bangladeshis still a distantprospect.The
1974. However,a self-reliant
trade deficitin 1975-76 is estimated at about 1000 million dollars,
which has to be made up by foreignloans, grantsand aids. The total
commitmentof foreigneconomic assistance to Bangladesh for 1975
was about 1279.712million dollars (including 439.464 million dollars
in food aid).15The newspaperreportsindicatedthat theseaid commitmentswere maintained and that since the August 15 coup, freshaid
negotiated.
forfutureyearswere being successfully
commitments
Foreign Relations: LivingwithIndia
There has been a "new thrust"in the foreignpolicyof Bangladesh
since the August 15 coup. It was widelyknown that,contraryto the
declared policy of non-alignment,the Mujib governmentwas closely
allied withDelhi and Moscow. The recognitionof the post-coupMushtaq governmentby Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and particularlyChina;16
completeabsence of any referenceto Indian aid in the liberationwar
in foreignpolicy statementsby formerpresidentMushtaq and President Sayem; the decision by Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia, Pakistan
and China to exchangediplomaticenvoysat the ambassadorlevel-all
theseclearlyindicate that Bangladesh wants to come out fromunder
the "domination" by the Indo-Sovietaxis.
New Delhi, however,made no secretof its disapprovalof the first
coup of August 15 and its welcomeof the second coup of November3;
nor is it disguisingits anxieties over the November 7 coup.17 That
India can fomentdisorderand subversionwithinBangladeshhas been
a constantconcernto the Bangladesh governmentand people. There
have been reportsthat New Delhi has been helping pro-Mujib and
pro-Sovietforces(who had crossedthe borderinto India afterthe August 15 coup) in makingpreparationsfor launchinganotherguerrilla
war in Bangladesh.Kader Siddiqui, a toughguerrillaleader of the 1971
liberationstruggle,is reportedto have occupied four border posts in
Mymensinghdistrictwith the help of Indian artillery.Siddiqui is
reportedto have sent messagesto pro-Mujib groups in Dacca that he
would "liberate" Bangladeshby December 1975. It is, however,quite
unlikelythat the people would give spontaneous and unstintedsup15 Figures supplied by USAID office,Dacca. Eighty percent of the foreigneconomic assistanceto Bangladesh was committedby internationalaid agencies and the
Bangladesh Aid Club. The remaining 20% was from Middle Eastern Countries,
Eastern Countries and the Socialist Bloc.
16China also contractedto import 14,000 tons of raw jute from Bangladesh.
17 The Bulletin (Sidney), November 22, 1975, p. 45.
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BANGLADESH 129
port to pro-Indianguerrillasthis time as theydid in 1971. The widespread anti-Indianfeelingin Bangladeshis likelyto preventIndia from
takingdirectmilitaryaction in Bangladesh,but at the same time the
compulsionsof geographywill have a moderatinginfluenceon the
Bangladesh government,which will seek to avoid overt hostilitytowards India.18
To sumup, at theend of 1975 Bangladeshenteredinto a period of
greateruncertaintythan was the case under the Mujib regime.With
the removalof the charismaticleadershipof Sheikh Mujib, conflicting
political forcesare takingdefiniteshape. There is the likelihood of a
coalition betweenthe formerIslamic partiesand the right-wing
of the
formerAL. The pro-Mujib and pro-Moscowgroups are also likely to
work togetherto seek the covertsupport of India to capture power.
The pro-Chineseradical partiesother than the JSD are likelyto support the presentgovernmentled by nationalist army officers
for the
time being,while the JSD will probablyfollow a 'go it alone' policy.
Except for the rightists,
all the other groups possess arms and would
not hesitateto use these to capture power if the opportunityshould
arise. The post-coupgovernmentshave been tryingto recover these
undergroundarms.If thisprogramfails,freeelectionscan not be held
can not be restored.19
It is probable thatthe
and a civiliangovernment
presentmilitarygovernmentwill continueto be harassedby insurgent
groupsbacked by India and by the guerrillaoperationsof the Biplobi
Gono Bahini. Moreover,the stabilityof the presentmilitaryregimeitselfmightbe affectedby the personal ambitionsof senior officers
and
factionalismin the armed forcesbetween the "repatriates"and "freedom fighters."
18 The reportsthat a "live grenade" was found in the Indian High Commission
officeand, a few days later, that the Indian High Commissionerto Bangladesh was
wounded led to fairlystrongverbal reactionsin New Delhi. There was some apprehension in Bangladesh that these indidents would be used to justify overt Indian
intervention.But to date (mid-December1975), New Delhi would seem to be playing
a waitinggame to see if a relationshipthat protectsIndia's basic interestin this area
can be established with the new Bangladesh regime.
19 Since the August 15 coup, the governmenthas arrested about 6,000 persons
possessing illegal arms and recovered huge quantities of sophisticated arms and
ammunition. The drive against unauthorized arms continues.
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