Konferenz

e-Skills. Sind wir f.IT fr die Zukunft?

2. Juli 2015
WKO Wien

NEW SKILLS FOR THE DIGITAL ECONOMY

MEASURING THE DEMAND FOR ICT SKILLS AT WORK

Vincenzo Spiezia
Senior Economist
Working Party on Measurement and Analysis of the Digital Economy (MADE)
vincenzo.spiezia@oecd.org

OECD Ministerial Meeting on the

Digital Economy
22 June 2016

23 June 2016

1.1 Economic and

social benefits of an
open Internet

3.1 Consumer Trust

and Market Growth

1.2 Stimulating digital

innovation across the
economy

3.2 Cooperation in
managing digital
security & privacy risk

2.1 Improving
networks & services
through convergence

4.1 New markets and

new jobs in the digital
economy

2.2 Internet of
Everything

4.2 Skills for a digital

world

Panel 4.2 - Skills for a Digital World

Objective: Identify new approaches to education, training
and re-skilling to meet the fast-changing demand for new
skills in the digital economy
Inputs: evidence of the demand for new skills; assess
possible skills mismatch and shortage; put forward a set of
education and training policies to meet such a demand

Outcome : Call for an OECD-wide digital skills strategy

and an enhanced measurement agenda.

Outline

Where will new jobs be created?

What skills will be needed?
ICT generic skills
ICT specialist skills
ICT complementary skills

Where will new jobs be created?

Annual contribution of the ICT sector to total employment growth in the
OECD area, 2001-2013
ICT and total employment growth (left-hand scale), percentage contribution to total employment (right hand scale)

ICT contribution to total growth ((right hand scale)

OECD ICT growth

OECD total growth

3,0

30

2,0

20

1,0

10

0,0

-1,0

-10

-2,0

-20

-3,0

-30

-4,0

-40

-5,0

-50

-6,0

-60
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Source: OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2015, forthcoming.

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Where will new jobs be created?

Employment in the ICT sector and sub-sectors, 2013
%

Computer, electronic and optical products

0.1 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.2

Software publishing

Telecommunications

IT and other information services

0.2 4.9 0.0 1.0 0.1 0.1 14.4 0.1 1.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.4

5
4
3
2
1
0

Source: OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2015, forthcoming.

Millions, 2013

Where will new jobs be created?

ICT specialists in OECD economies, 2014
As a share of total employment, by category

Electronics and telecom installers and repairers

ICT technicians

7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

Source: OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2015, forthcoming.

Electrotechnology engineers

ICT professionals

ICT service managers

Where will new jobs be created?

OECD employment growth by industry 2000-2012
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%

Source: OECD National Accounts 2015

ICTs at work raise demand for new skills

1. ICT generic skills
ability to use ICTs in daily work, e.g.: use software, send email, etc.

2. ICT specialist skills

ability to program software, develop applications, manage
networks, etc.

3. ICT complementary skills

ability to carry out work in a technology-rich environment, e.g.:
communicate on social networks, brand products on e-commerce
platforms, etc.

ICT generic skills at work

Two steps:
1. Intensity of ICT use in each occupation (PIAAC)
2. Demand for ICT generic skills
ICT intensity linked to employment by occupation (LFS)

ICT-intensity by occupation
PIAAC ask how often the respondent:
a.

send/receive email;

c.

find work-related information on the Internet;

d.

conduct transaction on the Internet;

e.

use spreadsheets;

f.

use word processors;

g.

use programming languages; or

h.

have real-time discussions.

Answers range from Never to Every day

Individuals with no experience with computer use

25% of OECD respondents reported no computer experience at work
(%)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

Source: OECD 2015 , based on PIAAC

Top-20 ICT-intensive occupation across countries

15 out of the top-20 ICT-intensive occupations are not ICT specialist occupations
Rank

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Occupation

Administration professionals
Information and communications technology service managers
Business services and administration managers
Finance professionals
Information and communications technology operations and user support
Sales, marketing and development managers
Sales, marketing and public relations professionals
Software and applications developers and analysts
Database and network professionals
Financial and mathematical associate professionals
Electrotechnology engineers
Engineering professionals (excluding electrotechnology)
Managing directors and chief executives
Physical and earth science professionals
Professional services managers
Authors, journalists and linguists
Legislators and senior officials
Life science professionals
Sales and purchasing agents and brokers
Business services agents

ISCO-08

Frequency

242
133
121
241
351
122
243
251
252
331
215
214
112
211
134
264
111
213
332
333

100%
100%
95%
95%
95%
95%
89%
89%
84%
79%
74%
68%
68%
68%
63%
58%
53%
53%
42%
37%

Demand for ICT generic skills by country

Economy-wide index of ICT intensity at work
2014
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0

Source: OECD 2015 , based on PIAAC

2011

Top-20 ICT specialist-intensive occupations

13 out of the top-20 occupations are not commonly classified as ICT occupations
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Occupation
Information and communications technology operations and user support
Engineering professionals (excluding electrotechnology)
Software and applications developers and analysts
Information and communications technology service managers
Database and network professionals
Physical and earth science professionals
Electrotechnology engineers
University and higher education teachers
Mathematicians, actuaries and statisticians
Architects, planners, surveyors and designers
Vocational education teachers
Telecommunications and broadcasting technicians
Physical and engineering science technicians
Electronics and telecommunications installers and repairers
Blacksmiths, toolmakers and related trades workers
Life science professionals
Metal processing and finishing plant operators
Administration professionals
Sales, marketing and public relations professionals
Process control technicians

Source: OECD 2015 , based on PIAAC

ISCO-08
351
214
251
133
252
211
215
231
212
216
232
352
311
742
722
213
812
242
243
313

Frequency
100%
95%
95%
89%
89%
79%
79%
74%
63%
63%
58%
58%
53%
53%
42%
37%
37%
32%
32%
32%

Demand for ICT specialist skills by country

Economy-wide index of ICT specialist intensity
2014
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0

Source: OECD 2015 , based on PIAAC

2011

Enterprises that reported hard-to-fill vacancies for

ICT specialists
As a percentage of all enterprises

2014
8%
7%
6%
5%

4%
3%
2%
1%
0%

2012

Top-10 jobs that employers are having difficulty filling

Talent Shortage Survey (Manpower, 2015)
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Job
Skilled Trade Workers
Sales Representatives
Engineers
Technicians
Drivers
Management/Executives
Accounting & Finance Staff
Secretaries, PAs, Administrative Assistants & Office Support Staff
IT Staff
Production/Machine operators

ICT specialist skills

ICT specialists shortage should result in:

upward trend in job vacancy rates
and/or

longer job vacancy duration

and/or

increase in wages relative to productivity

Job vacancies in ICT services (ISIC Rev4 J)

vacancy rate = # vacancies / (# vacancies + # employed)
2014

2009

Annual average of quarterly rates

5%
4%
3%
2%

1%
0%

Source: OECD 2015 , based on PIAAC

Business cycle matters

Job vacancy rates in ICT services in the European Union (2006-2014)
%
2.6

EA-18

EU-28**

2.4
2.2
2.0

1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2006

2007

2008

Source: OECD 2015 , based on PIAAC

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Vacancy rates - ICT services to total business

2014

2009

Annual average of quarterly rates

4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0

Source: OECD 2015 , based on PIAAC

Changes in wages relative to labour productivity

Annual averages 2001-2014
ICT
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%

Total business

Online job vacancies

As a percentage of all online postings
25%

20%
15%

2012

2013
10%

2014
2015

5%
0%
Australia

Canada

France

Source: OECD, based on Burning Glass and Jobfeed

Germany

Netherlands New Zealand

United
Kingdom

United States

ICT vacancy duration

Median number of days
60
50
40

2011

2012

30

2013
20

2014

10
0
Netherlands
Source: OECD, based on Jobfeed

Germany

France

The demand for ICT complementary skills

ICTs are changing the way work is carried out
Demand for ICT complementary skills
Ability to carry out work in a workplace shaped by ICTs,
eg:
Higher frequency of information calls for better capability to
plan in advance and to adjust quickly
More horizontal work organisation calls for more cooperation
and stronger leadership
Wider diffusion of information among workers increases the
importance of management and coordination
The sales skills in face-to-face commercial transaction are not
the same as in an anonymous e-commerce sale

What skills are complementary to ICTs?

Evidence from PIAAC
The PIAAC survey collects information on the
frequency at which respondents:
1. Performs a set of tasks at work;

2. Carry out activities that involve the use of

cognitive skills.

Tasks performed at work (PIAAC)

Cooperation:

Horizontal interaction:

Problem solving in less than 5 minutes

Thinking about a solution for a problem for at least 30 minutes

Physical tasks:

Persuading or influencing people

Negotiating with people inside or outside the organisation

Problem solving:

Planning the activities of others

Influence:

Planning of own activities

Organising own time

Managerial tasks:

Selling a product or a service

Advising people

Self-direction:

Sharing work-related information with co-workers

Instructing, training or teaching people, individually or in groups
Making speeches or giving presentations in front of five or more people

Client interaction:

Cooperating or collaboration with co-workers

Working physically

Skilled manual tasks:

Using skill or accuracy with hands or fingers

Correlations between ICT intensity and

other tasks - OECD
Cooperation

Collaboration
Information sharing

Horizontal
interaction

Training others
Giving presentations

Client
interaction

Selfdirection
Managerial
skills

Selling a product or service

Advising others
Planning of own activities
Organising own time
Planning activities of others
Persuading people

Influence
Problem
solving
Physical
skills
Manual
skills

Negotiating with people

Problem solving in less than 5 minutes

Thinking about a solution for at least 30 minutes

Working physically
Using skill or accuracy with hands or fingers
-0,3

-0,2

-0,1

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

Correlations between ICT intensity and

other tasks by education OECD
High education
Cooperation

Medium education

Low education

Collaboration
Information sharing

Horizontal
interaction

Training others
Giving presentations

Client
interaction

Selfdirection
Managerial
skills

Selling a product or service

Advising others
Planning of own activities
Organising own time
Planning activities of others
Persuading people

Influence
Problem
solving
Physical
skills
Manual
skills

Negotiating with people

Problem solving in less than 5 minutes
Thinking about a solution for at least 30 minutes
Working physically
Using skill or accuracy with hands or fingers
-0,4

-0,3

-0,2

-0,1

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

Correlations between ICT intensity and

other tasks by education AUSTRIA
High education
Cooperation

Medium education

Low education

Collaboration
Information sharing

Horizontal
interaction

Training others
Giving presentations
Selling a product or service

Client
interaction

Advising others

Selfdirection

Planning of own activities

Organising own time

Managerial
skills
Influence
Problem
solving
Physical
skills
Manual
skills

Planning activities of others

Persuading people
Negotiating with people
Problem solving in less than 5 minutes

Thinking about a solution for at least 30 minutes

Working physically
Using skill or accuracy with hands or fingers
-0,5 -0,4 -0,3 -0,2 -0,1

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

Correlations between ICT intensity and

cognitive skills by education OECD
High education

Medium education

Low education

0,6

0,5

0,4

0,3

0,2

0,1

0,0

Numeracy

Reading

Writing

Correlations between ICT intensity and

cognitive skills by education AUSTRIA
High education

Medium education

Low education

0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0,0

Numeracy

Reading

Writing

Conclusions (1/2)

The demand for ICT generic skills has increased in most countries

Yet, ICT intensity continues to differ across countries: from 1.6 in US and
Norway to 0.8 in Poland and the Slovak Republic

Austria is in the middle

The demand for ICT specialists has been growing fast over the last
years

but wage premia, vacancy rates and vacancy duration suggests ICT skills
shortage is not large and limited to few countries

Little evidence of ICT specialist skills shortage in Austria

However, available statistics do not permit to fully address these questions better measures are needed

Conclusions (2/2)
ICTs are also raising the demand for ICT complementary skills
On average, intensive use of ICT at work is associated to:
more interaction with co-workers and clients,
more problem solving
less physical work
In Austria, these changes are bigger and towards:
Client interaction
Negotiation
Coordination
Changes in the tasks associated to ICTs larger for low-skill
occupations:
stronger orientation to numeracy in Austria

The OECD Skills Strategy framework

http://skills.oecd.org/documents/OECDSkillsStrategyFINALENG.pdf

1. Developing relevant skills

Encourage and enable people to learn throughout life:

Gather and use information about changing skills demand to guide skills development.

Engage social partners in designing and delivering curricula and education and training
programmes

Ensure that education and training programmes are of high quality

Promote equity by ensuring access to, and success in, quality education for all

Ensure that costs are shared and that tax systems do not discourage investment in learning

Maintain a long-term perspective on skills development, even during economic crises

Foster international mobility of skilled people to fill skills gaps:

Facilitate entry for skilled migrants

Design policies that encourage international students to remain after their studies

Make it easier for skilled migrants to return to their country of origin

Promote cross-border skills policies:

Invest in skills abroad and encourage cross-border higher education

2. Activating skills
Encourage people to offer their skills to the labour market:
Identify inactive individuals and the reasons for their inactivity.
Create financial incentives that make work pay
Dismantle non-financial barriers to participation in the labour force

Retain skilled people in the labour market:

Discourage early retirement

Staunch brain drain

3. Putting skills to effective use

Create a better match between peoples skills and the requirements
of their job:

Help employers to make better use of their employees skills

Tackle unemployment and help young people to gain a foothold in the

labour market

Provide better information about the skills needed and available

Facilitate internal mobility among local labour markets

Increase the demand for high-level skills:

Help economies move up the value-added chain

Stimulate the creation of more high-skilled and high value-added jobs

Foster entrepreneurship

What skills are complementary to ICTs?

Evidence from O*NET
US BLS Occupational Information Network (O*NET)
1100 occupations (US SOC) over 1998-2014
940 occupations have been comprehensively updated over time
By linking these updates, changes in ICT use at work are correlated
to changes in the other 40 work activities
ICT use is measured by the importance of the work activity
Interacting with Computers

The sign of the correlation is a measure of the degree of

complementarity between ICT and other activities at work
The higher the correlation coefficient, the stronger the
complementarity

What skills are complementary to ICTs?

Evidence from O*NET
Activities classified in five groups :
Information Input - Where and how are the information and
data gained that are needed to perform this job?
Mental Processes - What processing, planning, problem-solving,
decision-making, and innovating activities are performed with jobrelevant information?
Interacting with Others - What interactions with other persons
or supervisory activities occur while performing this job?
Work Output (complex, technical) - What skilled activities
using coordinated movements are done to perform this job?
Work Output (physical, manual) - What activities using the
body and hands are done to perform this job?

Correlations between ICTs and activity

groups (changes over time)
1.

Interacting with Others

Establishing and Maintaining Interpersonal Relationships (0.6)
Performing for or Working Directly with the Public (0.59)
Communicating with Supervisors, Peers, or Subordinates (0.57)

Selling or Influencing Others (0.53)

2.

Mental Processes
Scheduling Work and Activities(0.53)
Organizing, Planning, and Prioritizing Work (0.49)

Updating and Using Relevant Knowledge (0.48)

Developing Objectives and Strategies (0.48)

3.

Information Input
Estimating the Quantifiable Characteristics of Products, Events, or Information(0.34)

4.

Work Output (complex, technical)

Repairing and Maintaining Mechanical Equipment (0.33)
Drafting, Laying Out, and Specifying Technical Devices, Parts, and Equipment(0.32)

5.

Work output (physical, material)

Operating Vehicles, Mechanized Devices, or Equipment(0.46)

Correlations between ICTs and activity groups

(changes over time)
By typical skill level of occupations (job zone)
1

Interacting with Others

Mental Processes

3 Work Output (complex, technical)

5

Information Input

Work Output (physical, manual)

0.0
job zone 1

job zone 2

0.1

0.2

job zone 3

0.3

0.4

0.5

job zone 4

0.6

0.7

job zone 5

0.8