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Section
Weibull
analysis
Warwick Manufacturing Group
Introduction
Data
15
20
Conclusions
20
References
21
22
23
35
40
40
44
44
2 Data
The basic elements in defect data analysis comprise:
a population, from which some sample is taken in the form of times to failure (here
time is taken to mean any appropriate measure of utilisation),
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an analytical technique such as Weibull which is then applied to the sample of failure
data to derive a mathematical model for the behaviour of the sample, and hopefully of
the population also, and finally
The most difficult part of this process is the acquisition of trustworthy data. No amount of
elegance in the statistical treatment of the data will enable sound judgements to be made from
invalid data.
Weibull analysis requires times to failure. This is higher quality data than knowledge of the
number of failures in an interval. A failure must be a defined event and preferably objective
rather than some subjectively assessed degradation in performance. A typical sample,
therefore, might at its most superficial level comprise a collection of individual times to
failure for the equipment under investigation.
The data should be a statistically random sample of the population. Exactly what this
means in terms of the hardware will differ in each case. Clearly the modification state
of equipments may be relevant to the failures being experienced and failure data which
cannot be allocated to one or other modification is likely to be misleading. By an
examination of the source of the data the user must satisfy himself that it contains no
bias, or else recognise such a bias and confine the deductions accordingly. For
example, data obtained from one user unit for an item experiencing failures of a nature
which may be influenced by the quality of maintenance, local operating
conditions/practices or any other idiosyncrasy of that unit may be used providing the
conclusions drawn are suitably confined to the unit concerned.
A less obvious data quality problem concerns the measure of utilisation to be used; it
must not only be the appropriate one for the equipment as a whole, but it must also be
appropriate for the major failure modes. As will be seen later, an analysis at equipment
level can be totally misleading if there are several significant failure modes each
exhibiting their own type of behaviour. The view of the problem at equipment level
may give a misleading indication of the counter-strategies to be employed. The more
meaningful deeper examination will not be possible unless the data contains mode
information at the right depth and degree of integrity.
It is necessary to know any other details which may have a bearing on the failure
sensitivity of the equipment; for example the installed position of the failures which
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comprise the sample. There are many factors which may render elements of a sample
unrepresentative including such things as misuse or incorrect diagnosis.
Sample Size Less Than 50. A table of Median Ranks has been calculated which gives
a best estimate of the F(t) value corresponding to each failure time in the sample. This
table is issued with these notes. It indicates that in the example just considered, the
F(t) values corresponding to the 5 ascending failure times quoted are not 20%, 40%,
60%, 80% and 100%, but are 12.9%, 31.4%, 50%, 68.6% and 87.1%. It is this latter
set of F(t) use values which should be plotted against the corresponding ranked failure
times on a Weibull plot. Median rank values give the best estimate for the primary
Weibull parameter and are best suited to some later work on confidence limits.
Sample Size Less Than 100. For sample sizes less than 100, in the absence of Median
Rank tables the true median rank values can be adequately approximated using
Bernards Approximation:
F (t ) =
(i 0.3)
(n + 0.4)
Sample Sizes Greater Than 100. Above a sample size of about 100 the problem of
small sample bias is insignificant and the F(t) values may be calculated from the
expression for the Mean Ranks:
i
(n + 1)
Common sense will indicate that the later manufactured engines are not lasting as long to
failure as the first. Therefore, there is clear evidence of a trend.
However, to put this on a statistical basis, the Laplace Trend Test is used:
Tes t St at i s t i c , U =
12N (t )
0.5
N (t )t
where U = standardised normal deviateif the calculated value is less than that taken
from tables appropriate to the confidence required (e.g 95%), then trend is not proven.
If it is greater than the tabled value, then trend is demonstrated.
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Crudely,
N (t )t
Tes t St at i s t i c , U =
n1
ti
i
=
1
12 N ( t n 1 )
0.5
N ( t )t
n1 n
where the last failure is not counted, whereas the final time interval is counted.
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Shape parameter.
F (t ) = 1 e
( t )
1
= log(t ) log
(1 F (t ))
It follows that if F(t) can be plotted against t (corresponding failure times) on paper which has
a reciprocal double log scale on one axis and a log scale on the other, and that data forms a
straight line, then the data can be modelled by Weibull and the parameters extracted from the
plot. A piece of 2 cycle Weibull paper (Chartwell Graph Data Ref C6572) is shown at Annex
A and this is simply a piece of graph paper constructed such that its vertical scale is a double
log reciprocal and its horizontal scale is a conventional log.
The mechanics of the plot are described progressively using the following example and the
associated illustrations in plots 2 to 12 of Annex B.
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Assemble the data in ascending order and tabulate it against the corresponding F(t)
values for a sample size of 10, obtained from the Median Rank tables. The tabulation
is shown at Section 16.
Mark the appropriate time scale on the horizontal axis on a piece of Weibull paper
(plot 2).
Plot on the Weibull paper the ranked hours at failure (ti) on the horizontal axis against
the corresponding F(t) value on the vertical axis (plot 3).
If the points constitute a reasonable straight line then construct that line. Note that real
data frequently snakes about the straight line due to scatter in the data; this is not a
problem providing the snaking motion is clearly to either side of the line. When
determining the position of the line give more weight to the later points rather than the
early ones; this is necessary both because of the effects of cumulation and because the
Weibull paper tends to give a disproportionate emphasis to the early points which
should be countered where these are at variance with the subsequent points. Do not
attempt to draw more than one straight line through the data and do not construct a
straight line where there is manifestly a curve. In this example the fitting of the line
presents no problem (plot 4). Note also that on the matter of how much data is
required for a Weibull plot that any 4 or so of the pieces of data used here would give
an adequate straight line. In such circumstances 4 points may well be enough.
Generally, 7 or so points would be a reasonable minimum, depending on their shape
once plotted.
The fact that the data produced a straight line when initially plotted enables 2
statements to be made:
o The data can apparently be modelled by the Weibull distribution.
o The location parameter or minimum life () is approximately zero. This
parameter is discussed later.
At plot 5 a scale for the estimate of the Shape Parameter , is highlighted. This scale
can be seen to range from 0.5 to 5, although values outside this range are possible.
The next step is to construct a perpendicular from the Estimation Point in the top left
hand corner of the paper to the plotted line (plot 6).
perpendicular and the scale. In this example, is about 2.4 (plot 7).
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Plot 9 shows that, based on this sample, these components have a characteristic life of
about 830 hours. By this time 63.2% of them will have failed.
At plot 10 the evaluation of the proportion failed corresponding to the mean of the
distribution of the times to failure (P) is shown to be 52.7% using the point of
intersection of the perpendicular and the P scale. This value is inserted in the F(t)
scale and its intersection with the plotted line determines the estimated mean of the
distribution of the times to failure ( ). In this case this is about 740 hours.
The median life can also be easily extracted; that is to say the life corresponding to
50% mortality. This is shown at plot 11 to be about 720 hours, based on this sample.
Finally, plot 12 illustrates that this data is indicating that a 400 hour life would result
in about 15% of in-service failures for these equipments. Conversely, an acceptable
level of in-service failure may be converted into a life; for example it can be seen from
plot 12 that an acceptable level of in-service failure of say, 30% would correspond to a
life of about 550 hours, and so on.
example would be a relatively weak early failure effect, particularly if the sample size and
therefore the confidence, was low. If there is a single or a predominant failure mode with a
<1, then clearly component lifing is inappropriate since the replacement is more likely to fail
than the replaced item. Just as importantly, a <1 gives a powerful indication of the causes of
these failures, which are classically attributed to two deficiencies. First such failures may
result from poor quality control in the manufacturing process or some other mechanism which
permits the installation of low quality components. It is for this reason that burn-in
programmes are the common counter-strategy to poor quality control for electronic
components which would otherwise generate an unacceptably high initial in-service level of
failure. The second primary cause of infant mortality is an inadequate standard of
maintenance activity, and here the analysis is pointing to a lack of quality rather than quantity
in the work undertaken. The circumstance classically associated with infant mortality
problems is the introduction of new equipment, possibly of new design, which is unfamiliar to
its operators and its maintainers. Clearly in such situations, the high initial level of
unreliability should decrease with the dissemination of experience and the replacement of
weakling components with those of normal standard. The problem of infant mortality has
been shown to be much more prevalent than might have been anticipated. In one particular
study (Part 2 of [6]) it was found to be the dominant failure regime on a variety of mechanical
components of traditional design.
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need for a deeper analysis at mode level. Typical counter-strategies to known constant hazard
conditions include de-rating, redundancy or modification.
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likely to succeed and aids interpretation of the physics of failure. It can also be used to
quantify the effects of any modifications or maintenance policy changes. Although the use of
median ranks provides the best estimate of by un-biasing the sample data, it is important to
remember that the confidence which can be placed on the estimate for any given failure
mode is primarily a function of the sample size and quality of the data for that mode.
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When this occurs it is necessary to subtract some quantity of time ( ) from every failure time
used to plot the curve. This is best done by a method attributed to General Motors and shown
in Annex C. Using this or any other suitable method, an estimate of , termed , can be
obtained. The estimate is enhanced by subtracting its value from every failure time and
replotting the data: if is too small the curve will remain concave but to a lesser degree than
Warwick Manufacturing Group
before: if is too large the plot will become convex; and the best estimate of is that value
which when subtracted from all the failure times gives the best straight line.
The significance of is that it is some value of time by which the complete distribution of
times to failure is shifted, normally to the right, hence the term location. In the earlier
example the distribution with = 0 is shown at Figure 4. If, however, had taken some positive
value, say 425 hours, then this value must be added to all the times to failure extracted from
the subsequent analysis of the straight line, and Figure 4 would have changed to that
illustrated at Figure 8.
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5.2 Extrapolation
Successful Weibull plotting relies on having historical failure data. Inaccuracies will arise if
the span in time of that data is not significantly greater than the mean of the distribution of
times to failure. If data obtained over an inadequate range is used as a basis for extrapolation
(i.e.) extending the plotted line significantly, estimates of the 3 parameters are likely to be
inaccurate and may well fail to reveal characteristics of later life such as a bi-modal wear-out
phenomenon. The solution is comprehensive data at the right level.
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One example of this bi-modal behaviour is quoted in [6]. There a vacuum pump was found to
have one mode of severe infant mortality ( = 0.42) combined with another of wear-out ( =
3.2). It is most unlikely that an analysis of their combined times to failure would have
suggested an adequate maintenance strategy for the item as a whole. The convex curve also
shown in Figure 9 indicates the presence of corrupt or multi-modal data. One form of
corruption stems from the concept of a negative location parameter; if life is consumed in
storage but the failure data under analysis is using an in-service life measured once the items
are issued from store, then clearly the data is corrupt in that only a part life is being used in
the analysis.
Once adequate multi-modal data has been obtained it is possible to separate the data for each
mode and replot all the data in such a way as to make maximum use of every piece of life
information. This approach provides more confidence than simply plotting failure data for the
individual mode and is best done using an adaptation of the technique for dealing with
multiply-censored data; this topic is covered later.
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be used since it does not intersect the plotted line. The next value is 3.6 and this is shown in
Plot 17 to generate point (1) on the lower bound. The third point of entry is at 8.7 and this is
shown to produce point (2) which is level with the third plotted point for the straight line, and
so on.
The primary use of this lower bound curve constructed through the final set of points is that it
is a visual statement of how bad this equipment might be and still give rise to the raw data
observed, with 95% confidence. Hence it can be said here that although the best estimate for
is 830 hours, we can be only 95% confident, based on the data used, that the true is greater
than or equal to 615 hours. Similarly at Plot 18, which shows the construction of a 95% upper
bound, we can be 95% confident that the true is less than or equal to 1040 hours. These two
statements can be combined to give symmetrical 90% confidence limits of between 615 and
1040 hours. This range can only be reduced by either diminishing the confidence level (and
therefore increasing the risks of erroneous deduction) or by increasing the quantity of data.
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mi = mi 1 +
Page 20
(n + 1 mi 1 )
1 + ki
Where mi
mi-1
ki
Mean order number values are determined only for failures. Once the first censoring occurs at
65, all subsequent mi values are non-integers. The median rank values at column (e) are taken
from the median rank tables using linear interpolation when necessary. For purposes of
comparison only, the equivalent median ranks obtained from Bernards Approximation, (i0.3)/(n + 0.4) are included at column (f). These are obtained by substituting mi for i in the
standard expression. These can be seen to be largely in agreement with the purer figures in
column (e). Finally 5% LCL AND 95% UCL figures are included at columns (g) and (h).
These are obtained from the tables using linear interpolation where necessary.
The median rank figures in column (e) are plotted on Weibull paper against the corresponding
failure times at column a in the normal way. The plot is illustrated at Plot 19 in Annex G, and
produces , and estimates without difficulty. For completeness, Plot 20 shows the 5%
LCL AND 95% UCL curves; a 90% confidence range for of between 90 and 148 units of time
is obtained.
7 Conclusions
The ability of the Weibull distribution to model failure situations of many types, including
those where non-constant hazard conditions apply, make it one of the most generally useful
distributions for analyzing failure data. The information it provides, both in terms of the
modelled distribution of times to failure and the prevailing failure regime is fundamental to
the selection of a successful maintenance strategy, whether or not component lifing is an
element in that strategy.
Warwick Manufacturing Group
Weibulls use of median ranks helps overcome the problems inherent in small samples. The
degree of risk associated with small samples can be quantified using confidence limits and
this can be done for complete or multiply-censored data. Weibull plots can quantify the risks
associated with a proposed lifing policy and can indicate the likely distribution of failure
arisings. In addition, they may well indicate the presence of more than one failure mode.
However, Weibull is not an autonomous process for providing instant solutions; it must be
used in conjunction with knowledge of the mechanics of the failures under study. The final
point to be made is that Weibull, like all such techniques, relies upon data of adequate
quantity and quality; this is particularly true of multi-modal failure patterns.
8 References
1.Weibull W. A statistical distribution function of wide application. ASME paper 51-A-6,
Nov 1951.
2.Mann R N, Schafer R E and Singpurwalla N D. Methods for statistical analysis of reliability
and life data. Wiley 1974.
3.Bompas-Smith J H. Mechanical survival - the use of reliability data. McGraw-Hill 1973.
4.Carter A D S. Mechanical reliability. Macmillan 1972.
5.British Standard 5760: Part 2: 1981. Reliability of systems, equipments and components;
guide to the assessment of reliability.
6.Sherwin D J and Lees F P. An investigation of the application of failure data analysis to
decision making in the maintenance of process plant. Proc Instn Mech Engrs, Vol 194, No 29,
1980.
7.Carter ADS. The bathtub curve for mechanical components - fact or fiction. Conference on
Improvement of Reliability in Engineering, Instn Mech Engrs, Loughborough 1973.
8.Glasser G J. Planned replacement: some theory and its application. Journal of Quality
Technology, Vol 1,No 2. April 1969.
Page 21
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Ranked Hours
at Failure
(ti)
300
410
500
600
660
750
825
900
1050
1200
Median Rank
Cumulative % Failed
F(t)
6.7
16.2
25.9
35.5
45.2
54.8
64.5
74.1
83.8
93.3
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(t t )(t t )
= t2 3 2 2 1
(t3 t 2 ) (t 2 t1 )
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Having identified a concave form apply the technique at Annex C (Plot 2).
Determine and evaluate modified times to failure.
Plot modified points and confirm a straight line (Plot 3).
Extract and in the normal way remembering to add to the straight line value for
(Plot 4).
5. Sketch the probability density function (Plot 5).
Ranked Hours
at Failure
(ti)
1000
1300
1550
1850
2100
2450
3000
Median Rank
Cumulative % Failed
F(t)
9.4
22.8
36.4
50.0
63.6
77.2
90.6
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(t3 t 2 )(t 2 t1 )
(t3 t 2 ) (t 2 t1 )
= t2
Replot using:
1000 - 547 = 453
1300 - 547 = 753
1550 - 547 = 1003
1850 - 547 = 1303
2100 - 547 = 1553
2450 - 547 = 1903
3000 - 547 = 2453
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Censoring
Survivors
Mean
Order
Median
Bernard
s
5% Rank
Lower
95%
Rank
ti
times Ci
ki
(b)
Number
mi
Page 45
Ranks %
Approxn
Bound
(e)
(f)
(g)
Upper
Bound
(h)
(d)
(a)
(c)
31.7
16
4.2
4.27
0.3
17
39.2
15
10.2
10.37
2.2
26
57.5
14
16.3
16.46
5.3
34
(13)
23.05
9.32
42.48
29.63
13.8
49.12
65.0
65.8
12
70.0
11
75.0
(10)
75.0
(9)
87.5
(8)
88.3
(7)
84.2
(6)
101.7
(5)
105.8
109.2
110.0
130.0
3+
16 + 1 3
= 4.08
1 + 12
22.89
4.08 +
16 + 1 4.08
= 5.16
1 + 11 29.49
7.53
44.03
44.09
25.65
64.18
(3)
10.69
63.31
63.35
43.14
80.45
(1)
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Sample Size
1
50
10
8,30
7,41
6,70
92,59 83,77
10
93,30
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Rank
order
Sample Size
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
6,11
5,61
5,19
4,83
4,52
4,24
4,00
3,78
3,58
3,41
14,80
13,60
12,58
11,70
10,94
10,27 9,68
9,15
8,68
8,25
23,58
21,67
20,04
18,65
17,43
16,37 15,42
14,58
13,83
13,15
32,38
29,76
27,53
25,61
23,94
22,47 21,18
20,02
18,99
18,05
41,19
37,85
35,02
32,58
30,45
28,59 26,94
25,47
24,15
22,97
50,00
45,95
42,51
39,54
36,97
34,71 32,70
30,92
29,32
27,88
58,81
54,05
50,00
46,51
43,48
40,82 38,47
36,37
34,49
32,80
67,62
62,15
57,49
53,49
50,00
46,94 44,23
41,82
39,66
37,71
76,42
70,24
64,98
60,46
56,52
53,06 50,00
47,27
44,83
42,63
10
85,20
78,33
72,47
67,42
63,03
59,18 55,77
52,73
50,00
47,54
11
93,89
86,40
79,96
74,39
69,55
65,29 61,53
58,18
55,17
52,46
94,39
87,42
81,35
76,06
71,41 67,30
63,63
60,34
57,37
94,81
88,30
82,57
77,53 73,06
69,08
65,51
62,29
95,17
89,06
83,63 78,82
74,53
70,68
67,20
95,48
89,73 84,58
79,98
75,85
72,12
16
95,76 90,32
85,42
81,01
77,03
17
96,00
90,85
86,17
81,95
96,22
91,32
86,85
96,42
91,75
12
13
14
15
18
19
20
96,59
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Sample Size
order
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
3,25
3,10
2,97
2,85
2,73
2,63
2,53
2,45
2,36
2,28
7,86
7,51
7,19
6,90
6,62
6,37
6,14
5,92
5,72
5,53
9,44
9,11
8,81
17,21 16,44 15,73 15,09 14,49 13,94 13,43 12,96 12,52 12,10
21,89 20,91 20,01 19,19 18,43 17,74 17,09 16,48 15,92 15,40
26,57 25,38 24,30 23,30 22,38 21,53 20,74 20,01 19,33 18,69
31,26 29,86 28,58 27,41 26,32 25,32 24,40 23,54 22,74 21,99
35,94 34,33 32,86 31,51 30,27 29,12 28,06 27,07 26,14 25,28
40,63 38,81 37,15 35,62 34,22 32,92 31,71 30,59 29,55 28,58
10
45,31 43,29 41,43 39,73 38,16 36,71 35,37 34,12 32,96 31,87
11
50,00 47,76 45,72 43,84 42,11 40,51 39,03 37,65 36,37 35,17
12
54,69 52,24 50,00 47,95 46,05 44,31 42,68 41,18 39,77 38,46
13
59,37 56,71 54,28 52,05 50,00 48,10 46,34 44,71 43,18 41,76
14
64,06 61,19 58,57 56,16 53,95 51,90 50,00 48,24 46,59 45,06
15
68,74 65,67 62,85 60,27 57,89 55,69 53,66 51,76 50,00 48,35
16
73,43 70,14 67,14 64,38 61,84 59,49 57,32 55,29 53,41 51,65
17
78,11 74,62 71,42 68,49 65,78 63,29 60,97 58,82 56,82 54,94
18
82,79 79,09 75,70 72,59 69,73 67,08 64,63 62,35 60,23 58,24
19
87,47 83,56 79,99 76,70 73,68 70,88 68,29 65,88 63,63 61,54
20
92,14 88,03 84,27 80,81 77,62 74,68 71,94 69,41 67,04 64,83
21
96,75 92,49 88,54 84,91 81,57 78,47 75,60 72,93 70,45 68,13
22
23
24
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25
26
27
28
29
97,64 94,47
30
97,72