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1 Theoretical Probability I
Introduction to Probability
1. Experimental Probability:
o Is based on the data collected from actual experiments
involving the event in question.
o An experiment is a sequence of trials in which a
physical occurrence is observed
o An outcome is the result of an experiment
o The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes
o An event is a subset of the sample space - one
particular outcome
Example 1:
Suppose you flipped a coin 30 times and, tails showed 19 times. The outcomes are H or T, and
the event E = tails.
Example 2:
If you rolled two dice 20 times and a total of 7 showed up three times. Then,
2. Theoretical Probability:
It is based on the mathematical laws of probability. It applies only to situations that can be
modeled by mathematically fair objects or experiments.
Example 3:
Calculate the probability of rolling a sum of 7 when rolling two six-sided dice.
Event A = rolling a sum of 7
P ( A )=
6
36
P(A) =
1
6
2nd Child
3rd Child
Girl
Girl
Girl
Boy
Boy
Girl
Boy
Girl
Girl
Boy
Girl
Boy
Boy
Boy
Outcomes:
0.2
5
0.7
5
0.2
5
0.2
5
0.7
5
0.2
5
0.2
5
0.7
0.2
5
5
0.7
5
0.7
5
0.7
5
Example 2:
a) What is the probability of a pass on a 4 question multiple choice test where each question has
4 possible answers?
Method 1: Chart
Q#1
R
R
R
R
W
R
R
W
W
W
W
W
R
W
W
[
Q#2
R
R
R
W
R
R
W
W
R
W
W
R
W
W
R
Q#3
R
R
W
R
R
W
R
R
R
W
R
W
W
W
W
Q#4
R
W
R
R
R
W
W
R
R
R
W
W
W
W
R
b) Monica estimates that the probability of getting the next question right if
the previous question was right on a Data Management test is . But
the probability of getting it right if the previous one was wrong is only
1/3. The probability of getting the first question right is 4/5.
a.Draw a tree diagram showing the probabilities of getting 3
questions right or wrong.
b.What is the probability that she gets the third question right?
c.What is the probability of a pass?
iv. Probability with/without replacement
There are 4 Blue blocks, 5 Red blocks and 3 Green blocks in a bag.
a.Find the probability of selecting 2 Blue blocks with replacement
v. Complementary Events
The complement of a set A is written as A and consists of all the outcomes in the sample space
that are NOT in A.
Example 1:
Rolling one die: Sample space = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
If event A = rolling a 4 then