Queuing Models

How to Analyze a System*

*Simulation,

Modeling & Analysis (3/e) by Law and Kelton, 2000, p. 4, Figure 1.1

Traffic Queues
Queues form at intersections and roadway
bottlenecks, especially during congested periods and
are a source of considerable delay.
Queuing theory is not unique to traffic analysis,
(industrial plants, retail stores, service-oriented
industries).
The purpose of studying traffic queuing is to provide
means to estimate important measures of highway
performance including vehicular delay

Queuing Theory
Queuing models are derived from underlying
assumptions about:
A. Arrival Patterns

Equal time intervals uniform or deterministic intervals

Exponentially distributed time intervals- Poisson

B. Departure Characteristics

Given average vehicle departure rate, the assumption of a

deterministic or exponential distribution is appropriate.
Number of departure channels; example of multiple departure
channels in traffic?

C. Queue Discipline
First-in-first-out (FIFO)
Last-in-first-out (LIFO)
Which one is realistic for traffic queues?

Queuing Theory: Assumptions Defining Queuing

Regime
Arrival Rate Assumption
D = Deterministic or Uniform Distribution
M = Exponential Distribution
Departure Rate Assumption
D = Deterministic or Uniform Distribution
M = Exponential Distribution
Number of Departure Channels

D/D/1 Queuing Regime

EXAMPLE
Vehicles arrive at an entrance to a national park. There is
a single gate (at which all vehicles must stop) where a
ranger distributes a free brochure. The park opens at
8:00 a.m., at that time vehicles begin to arrive at the rate
of 480 vehicles/hour. After 20 minutes, the flow rate
declines to 120 vehicles/hour and continues at that level
for the remainder of the day. If the time required to
distribute the brochure is 15 seconds, determine:
Whether a queue will form, and if so, how long is the
maximum queue?
How long is the maximum delay?
When will the queue dissipate?

Graphical Approach

Traffic Analysis at Highway Bottlenecks

EXAMPLE
A freeway has a directional capacity of 4000 vehicles/hr
and a constant flow of 2900 vehicles/hr during the
morning commute to work (i.e., no adjustments to
traffic flow are produced by the incident). At 8:00 a.m.
a traffic accident closes the freeway to all flow. At 8:12
a.m. the freeway is partially opened with a capacity of
2000 vehicles/hr. Finally, the wreckage is removed and
the freeway is restored to full capacity (4000
vehicles/hr) at 8:31 a.m.. Assume a D/D/1 queuing
regime to determine total delay, longest queue length,
time of queue dissipation, and longest vehicle delay.

Use to determine delay on traffic signals

Total Number of vehicles delayed
V = + =
=

V=

Total Delay (veh-sec) =

1
V
2

Average delay over a signal

=

1 2
2

Total Delay
cycle:

Average Delay =

2
1

1 2
2

where =

Traffic Analysis at Highway Bottlenecks

Highway bottlenecks can be generally defined as a
section of highway with lower capacity than the
incoming section of the highway.
Sources for the reduction in capacity:
Decrease in number of through traffic lanes
Reduced shoulder widths
Presence of traffic signals

Type of Highway Bottlenecks

Recurring (e.g., physical reduction in number of
lanes)

Incident-provoked (e.g., vehicle breakdown or

accident): Incident bottlenecks are unanticipated,
temporary, and have varying capacity over time.

Queuing Theory: Assumptions Defining Queuing

Regime
Arrival Rate Assumption
D = Deterministic or Uniform Distribution
M = Exponential Distribution
Departure Rate Assumption
D = Deterministic or Uniform Distribution
M = Exponential Distribution
Number of Departure Channels

Markov Process
A Markov process is a random process that undergoes transitions
from one state to another on a state space.

It is a memoryless process, i.e. the probability distribution of the next

state depends only on the current state.
Assume stability of distribution.

Method for assessing Independence

Method for assessing Independence

Scatter Plots

Method for Assessing Stability of Distribution

Tests for Distributions

Tests for Distributions

Chi-square test
m

Ok Ek

k 1

Ek

Kolmogorov-Smirnov test
Anderson Darling Test

Littles Law
For a given arrival rate, the time in the system is proportional to packet
occupancy
N=T
where
N: average # of vehicles
: vehicle arrival rate (packets per unit time)
T: average delay (time in the system) per vehicle
Examples:
On rainy days, streets and highways are more crowded
Fast food restaurants need a smaller dining room than regular restaurants with the
same customer arrival rate

Arrival Pattern
Most commonly is assumed to have a Poisson Distribution
Holds kind of true in low-medium traffic

Poisson Distribution is Discrete

Headway Distribution of a Poisson Arrival

If no vehicle arrives during a given time period (i.e. x=0)

M/D/1
M stands for an exponential distribution of inter-arrival time or a
poisson arrival process. Arrival rate is v, i.e. the flow
D is a deterministic departure process. The departure rate is c, i.e. the
capacity
1 is the number of channels

Steady State Conditions

1 =
Recursively solve this

Workshop Question
Vehicles arrive at an entrance to a national park. There are five gates (at
which all vehicles must stop) where a ranger distributes a free brochure.
The park opens at 7:00 a.m., at that time vehicles begin to arrive at the
rate of 100-2t vehicles/min (where t is the time elapsed after 7:00AM).
After 35 minutes, the flow rate declines to 10 vehicles/minute and
continues at that level for the remainder of the day. If the time required to
distribute the brochure is 6 seconds, determine:
Whether a queue will form, and if so, how long is the maximum queue?
After one hour, how many vehicles will be let into the park, and what will
be the length of the queue?
How long is the maximum delay and at what time will the queue dissipate?