Result Update

August 14, 2015

Rating matrix
Rating
Target
Target Period
Potential Upside

:
:
:
:

Oil India (OILIND)

Buy
| 550
18 months
23%

Difficult times

Whats changed?
Target
EPS FY16E
EPS FY17E
Rating

Changed from | 622 to | 550

Changed from | 61.8 to | 53.2
Changed from | 59.7 to | 49.2
Unchanged

Quarterly performance
Revenue
EBITDA
EBITDA (%)
PAT

Q1FY16
2,882.6
1,217.2
42.2
775.4

Q1FY15 YoY (%)

2,655.3
8.6
1,255.2
-3.0
47.3 -504 bps
851.9
-9.0

Q4FY15 QoQ (%)

2,713.0
6.3
823.3
47.8
30.3 1188 bps
551.7
40.5

Key financials
| Crore
Revenues
EBITDA
Net Profit
EPS (|)

FY14
9,612.7
4,033.8
2,981.3
49.6

FY15
9,753.7
3,537.7
2,508.4
41.7

FY16E
11,428.6
4,966.7
3,197.6
53.2

FY17E
11,469.0
4,622.0
2,956.1
49.2

FY15
10.7
13.2
6.2
1.2
11.5
8.9

FY16E
8.4
10.3
4.3
1.2
13.8
12.3

FY17E
9.1
11.2
4.5
1.1
12.1
10.8

Valuation summary
P/E
Target P/E
EV / EBITDA
P/BV
RoNW (%)
RoCE (%)

FY14
9.0
11.1
6.0
1.3
14.4
9.4

Stock data
Particular
Market Capitalization (| Crore)
Total Debt (FY15) (| Crore)
Cash and Investments (FY14) (| Crore)
EV (| Crore)
52 week H/L
Equity capital (| Crore)
Face value (|)

Amount
26,930.4
9,782.7
14,651.1
22,062.0
669/420
601.1
10.0

Price performance
Return %

1M

3M

6M

12M

(10.0)

(22.2)

(27.3)

(43.1)

ONGC

3.4

(2.3)

(15.7)

(17.8)

Reliance Ind

2.7

3.5

(9.4)

(17.9)

Oil India

2.7

(3.2)

(18.8)

(22.6)

Cairn India

| 448

Research Analyst
Mayur Matani
mayur.matani@icicisecurities.com
Harshal Mehta
harshal.mehta@icicisecurities.com

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Oil India reported its Q1FY16 results, which were below our
estimates. The topline increased 8.6% YoY to | 2882.2 crore (our
estimate: | 3022.4 crore) while the reported PAT declined 9% YoY to
| 775.4 crore (our estimate: | 966.6 crore) due to higher subsidy
burden of | 167.4 vs. our estimate of | 62.2 crore resulting in lower
net realisations
Subsequently, EBITDA at | 1216.8 crore came in below our estimate
of | 1484.6 crore. Also, higher other expenses led to a decline in
reported EBITDA numbers. PAT during the quarter came in at
| 775.4, below our estimate of | 966.6 crore
Net realisations below estimates; oil prices holds key
Gross crude oil under-recoveries had remained high till FY14 due to the
increase in crude oil prices and INR depreciation. However, a sharp
decline in crude prices along with the governments deregulation of diesel
prices have led to a decline in gross crude oil under-recoveries. Assuming
Brent crude oil prices at US$60/bbl, we expect gross crude oil underrecoveries at | 42429.9 crore in FY17E from | 75614 crore in FY15.
However, the subsidy sharing mechanism holds key, which has an impact
on upstream companies net realisations. We expect net subsidy share of
Oil India to decline from | 5522.6 crore in FY15 to | 555.7 crore in FY17E
assuming the governments recently approved subsidy sharing
mechanism for FY16. Currently, we have modelled net realisation of
US$55.7/bbl and US$56/bbl for FY16E and FY17E, respectively.
Production continues to remain flat
Overall, we estimate crude oil production of 3.4 MMT and 3.5 MMT in
FY16E and FY17E, respectively, as civil issues in Assam continue to
impact production. We estimate gas production at 2.8 bcm and 3 bcm for
FY16E and FY17E, respectively, as Brahmaputra Cracker gets
commissioned. In case of Mozambique asset, where Oil India has 5%
stake, reserve upgrades bolster the investment decision of the company.
However, lower LNG price in future is a risk to Oil Indias investment.
Gas price to decline; subsidy sharing mechanism holds key
Gas prices have been revised from US$5.6 per mmbtu price to
$5.2/mmbtu from April, 2016 on account of a decline in benchmark gas
prices as per the formula set by the government. We expect gas prices to
decline from October, 2016 as well taking into account the current
scenario of benchmark gas prices. Long term clarity on the subsidy
sharing formula will hold the key for future profitability of the company.
The government has recently proposed the subsidy sharing mechanism
for FY16 and decided to cap its sharing of kerosene subsidy at | 12/litre
and LPG at | 18/kg for FY16 with the rest being borne by oil PSUs. We
have assumed the above subsidy sharing mechanism for the long term to
arrive at a target price of | 550/share with EPS of | 53.2 and | 49.2 for
FY16E and FY17E, respectively, assuming Brent crude price at US$60/bbl
and net realisation of ~US$56/bbl. However, if Brent crude price remains
at current level of US$50/bbl, Oil Indias target price would reduce to
| 486/share with EPS of | 45.6 and | 38.2 for FY16E and FY17E,
respectively. It remains a key risk for the company. Currently, we maintain
BUY recommendation on the stock, with a target price of | 550 (average
of 10x FY17E EPS and 1.2x FY17E BVPS).

Variance analysis
Q1FY16

Q1FY16E

Total Revenues
Raw materials costs
Employees Cost
Other Expenses
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
EBITDA margins (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
Other Income
Extra Ordinary Item
PBT
Total Tax
PAT

2,882.6
14.2
401.8
1,249.4
1,665.4
1,217.2
42.2
186.8
1,030.4
82.7
277.2
0.0
1,224.9
449.5
775.4

Key Metrics
Exchange rate (|/$)
Under-recoveries (| cr)
Gross realisation ($/barrel)

63.5
8742.0
61.9

Net realisation ($/barrel)

57.4
Oil Production (mmt)
0.8
Gas Production (mmt)
0.6
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Q1FY15

YoY (%)

Q4FY15 QoQ (%)

3,022.4
0.0
391.5
1,146.3
1,537.7
1,484.6
49.1
235.9
1,248.7
97.8
274.7
0.0
1,425.6
459.1
966.6

2,655.3
8.6
9.4
51.0
365.9
9.8
1,024.9
21.9
1,400.2
18.9
1,255.2
-3.0
47.3 -504 bps
164.7
13.4
1,090.4
-5.5
85.7
-3.5
281.7
-1.6
0.0
NA
1,286.4
-4.8
434.5
3.4
851.9
-9.0

2,713.0
6.3
-36.4
-139.1
482.0
-16.6
1,444.1
-13.5
1,889.7
-11.9
823.3
47.8
30.3 1188 bps
205.7
-9.2
617.6
66.8
97.0
-14.7
265.0
4.6
0.0
NA
785.6
55.9
233.9
92.1
551.7
40.5

63.5
10160.6
61.9

59.8
28690.7
108.4

6.2
-69.5
-42.9

62.3
8523.5
53.6

2.0
2.6
15.3

60.3
0.9
0.7

52.4
0.8
0.7

9.7
-0.2
-5.3

53.6
0.8
0.7

7.0
0.4
-3.3

Comments
Lower than estimated revenues due to lower than estimated net realisation
of US$ 57.4/bbl

Higher than estimated due to higher provisions

Higher than estimated subsidy burden due to new subsidy sharing

mechanism for FY16 lead to lower than estimated net realisation
Oil production marginally below our estimates

Change in estimates
FY16E
(| Crore)
Revenue
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)

Old
11,917.2
5,597.1
47.0

PAT
3,716.2
EPS (|)
61.8
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

New
11,428.6
4,966.7
43.5

FY17E
% Change
Old
-4.1 12,225.2
-11.3 5,357.0
-351 bps
43.8
3,590.7
59.7

New % Change
11,469.0
-6.2
4,622.0
-13.7
40.3
-8.0

3,197.6
53.2

-14.0
-14.0

2,956.1
49.2

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

FY16E

FY17E

60.6

61.2

63.5

63.5

63.1

63.0

139,869.0
106.2
48.1

75,614.0
84.5
46.7

3.5
2.6

3.4
2.7

Comments
Change in estimates due to lower production estimates
Decline in estimates due to revised higher other expenses

-17.7
-17.7

Assumptions
Current
Exchange rate (|/$)
Under-recoveries (| cr)
Gross realisation($/bbl)
Net realisation ($/bbl)
Oil Production (mmt)
Gas Production (mmt)

Earlier

39,314.2 42,429.9
59.3
59.5
55.7
56.0
3.4
2.8

3.5
3.0

Comments

We now assume Brent oil prices of $60/bbl vs. $65/bbl earlier, which led to a
45,359.5 47,553.2 decline in gross under-recoveries
64.2
65.0
55.5
54.0 Assume subsidy burden at ~US$ 3.5/bbl
3.6
3.8 Estimates lowered for oil and gas production
2.8
3.0

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 2

Company Analysis
Indecision on reforms hurting company; reforms inevitable
Gross crude oil under-recoveries had remained high till FY14 due to the
increase in crude oil prices and INR depreciation. However, a sharp
decline in crude prices and the governments deregulation of diesel prices
have led to a decline in gross crude oil under-recoveries. Assuming Brent
crude oil prices at US$60/bbl, we expect gross crude oil under-recoveries
at | 42429.9 crore in FY17E from | 75614 crore in FY15. However, the
subsidy sharing mechanism holds the key, which has an impact on
upstream companies net realisations. We expect net subsidy share of Oil
India to decline from | 5522.6 crore in FY15 to | 555.7 crore in FY17E
assuming the governments recently approved subsidy sharing
mechanism for FY16. Currently, we have modelled net realisation of
US$55.7/bbl and US$56/bbl for FY16E and FY17E, respectively.
Realisation plays an important role in earnings growth. Also, for the new
oil fields to be commercially viable, Oil India needs higher net realisation.
Hence, long term clarity needs to emerge on the subsidy sharing
mechanism (that has historically been ad hoc) wherein lower subsidy
burden needs to be set for upstream companies.
Exhibit 1: Oil realisations trend
120

109.6

60

106.2

50

84.5

80
$/barrel

$/barrel

100

60

54.1

48.1

46.7

59.3 55.7

59.5 56.0

40
30

40

20

20

10
0

0
FY13

Gross Realised Price

FY14

FY15

FY16E

Realised Price after Subsidy / Discount

FY17E

Subsidy / Discount

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 3

Exhibit 2: Oil subsidy burden

10000

| Crore

8000

8736.8
7892.2
5522.6

6000
4000
2000

569.4

555.7

FY16E

FY17E

0
FY13

FY14

FY15

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Production continues to remain flat

Overall, we estimate crude oil production of 3.4 MMT and 3.5 MMT in
FY16E and FY17E, respectively, as civil issues in Assam continue to
impact production. We estimate gas production at 2.8 bcm and 3 bcm for
FY16E and FY17E, respectively, as Brahmaputra Cracker gets
commissioned. In case of Mozambique asset, where Oil India has 5%
stake, reserve upgrades bolster the investment decision of the company.
However, a lower LNG price in future is a risk to Oil Indias investment.
Assam VAT issue concern subside
The company has received a notice of demand for | 1349.7 crore from
Assam Value Added Tax Authority claiming tax on price discount on
crude oil given to downstream oil companies and on transportation
charges of crude oil. The management is contesting this demand and has
filed a writ petition. The recent Supreme Court ruling against applicability
of VAT on amount of under-recoveries shared reduces the ongoing
concern.
Supreme Court verdict on royalty poses risk
The Assam governments claim on Oil India for recovery of royalty
remains the key risk for the company given that most of Oil Indias
producing assets are onshore and concentrated in one state. Oil India has
recognised it as contingent liability and not acknowledged it as debt.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 4

Outlook & Valuation

Gas prices have been revised from US$5.6 per mmbtu price to
$5.2/mmbtu from April, 2016 on account of a decline in benchmark gas
prices as per the formula set by the government. We expect gas prices to
decline from October, 2016 as well taking into account the current
scenario of benchmark gas prices. The long term clarity on the subsidy
sharing formula will hold the key for future profitability of the company.
The government has recently proposed the subsidy sharing mechanism
for FY16 and decided to cap its sharing of kerosene subsidy at | 12/litre
and LPG at | 18/kg for FY16 with the rest being borne by oil PSUs. We
have assumed the above subsidy sharing mechanism for the long term to
arrive at a target price of | 550/share with EPS of | 53.2 and | 49.2 for
FY16E and FY17E, respectively, assuming Brent crude price at US$60/bbl
and net realisation of ~US$56/bbl.
However, if Brent crude prices remain at current levels of US$ 50/bbl, Oil
Indias target price would reduce to | 486/share with EPS of | 45.6 and
| 38.2 for FY16E and FY17E, respectively. This remains the key risk for the
company.
We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock, with a target price of
| 550 (average of 10x FY17E EPS and 1.2x FY17E BVPS).
Exhibit 3: Valuation
Valuation based on P / BV multiple
Adjusted Book Value for FY17E (|Crore)
Adjusted number of shares (Crore)
Adjusted Book Value per share (|)
Multiple
Value of core business (| per share)
Add: Investments (| per share)
Fair Value per share (|)

24219.7
60.1
402.9
1.2
483.5
126
610

Valuation based on P / E multiple

Profit after tax for FY17E (| Crore)
Less: Other Income adjusted for tax (| Crore)
Adjusted profit after tax for FY17E (| Crore)
Number of shares (Crore)
Adjusted EPS for FY17 (|)
Multiple
Fair value per share without investments (|)
Add: Value of Investments (| per share)
Other Investments
Fair value per share (|)

2956.1
771.8
2184.3
60.1
36.3
10.0
363.4
126
490

Weighted Target Price (| per share)

550

Source: ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 4: Valuations
Year
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E

Sales
(| Crore)
9947.6
9,612.7
9753.7
11,428.6
11469.0

Sales Gr.
(%)
-1.7
(3.4)
1.5
17.2
0.4

EPS
(|)
59.7
49.6
41.7
53.2
49.2

EPS Gr.
(%)
4.1
(16.9)
-15.9
27.5
-7.6

PE
(x) EV/EBITDA (x)
7.5
3.4
9.0
6.0
10.7
6.2
8.4
4.3
9.1
4.5

RoNW
(%) RoCE (%)
18.7
18.5
14.4
9.4
11.5
8.9
13.8
12.3
12.1
10.8

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 5

Company snapshot
800
700
Target Price: 550

600
500
400
300
200
100

May-16
Jul-16

Jan-16
Mar-16

Sep-15

Nov-15

Jul-15

Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15

Nov-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

May-14

Jan-14
Mar-14

Nov-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

May-13

Jan-13
Mar-13

Nov-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

May-12

Jan-12
Mar-12

Sep-11

Nov-11

Jul-11

May-11

Jan-11
Mar-11

Nov-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

May-10

Jan-10
Mar-10

Sep-09

Nov-09

Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Key events
Date
May-10

Event
Administered price mechanism (APM) gas prices hiked from US$1.8/mmbtu to US$4.2/mmbtu

Jun-11

Central government announces increase in petroleum product prices, eliminates custom duty on crude oil and reduced in excise duties on petrol and diesel

May-12

Petrol prices increase sharply by | 7.5-8 per litre

Jan-13

The Rangarajan committee submitted its report to the Prime Ministers Office (PMO) on fiscal terms under the PSC, gas pricing, contract management and audit,
which if implemented would be positive for the sector. The gas pricing formula suggested was positive for the oil upstream companies
The government took a brave and bold decision and asked the oil marketing companies (OMCs) to periodically hike diesel prices by 50 paise/month

Jan-13
Jun-13

Indian government announced increase in gas prices based on the Rangarajan committee with some riders

Aug-13

The Indian government fixed the subsidy sharing for FY14 at US$ 56/bbl

Oct-14

Government announces gas pricing policy

Dec-14

Crude oil prices decline by nearly 50% from the 2014 high's

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Top 10 Shareholders

Shareholding Pattern

Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

(in %)
Promoter
FII
DII
Others

Name
Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m)
Government of India
10-Apr-15 67.6
406.6
0.0
Indian Oil Corpn Ltd
31-Mar-15
4.5
26.75
0.0
Life Insurance Corporation of India
31-Mar-15
2.5
15.2
6.1
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd
31-Mar-15
2.2
13.38
0.0
Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd
31-Mar-15
2.2
13.4
0.0
HSBC Global Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited
31-Dec-14
1.4
8.44
0.0
HSBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited
31-Mar-15
1.4
8.4
8.4
31-Mar-15
1.2
7.37
7.4
LIC Nomura Mutual Fund Asset Management Company Ltd
HDFC Asset Management Co., Ltd.
31-Dec-14
1.2
7.2
-14.7
Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM)
31-Dec-14
0.7
4.23
2.4

Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15

67.6
67.6
67.6
67.6
67.6
9.6
9.7
9.8
9.3
9.2
8.0
8.2
8.4
9.0
9.3
14.8
14.5
14.2
14.1
13.9

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

Recent Activity
Investor name
Investor name
HSBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited
LIC Nomura Mutual Fund Asset Management Company Ltd.
Life Insurance Corporation of India
Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM)
ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd.
Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Value
61.01m
53.82m
44.65m
22.13m
16.84m

Shares
8.35m
7.37m
6.11m
2.42m
2.31m

Investor name
Investor name
HDFC Asset Management Co., Ltd.
FIL Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited
Franklin Templeton Asset Management (India) Pvt. Ltd.
Reliance Capital Asset Management Ltd.
Emerging Global Advisors, LLC

Value
-134.70m
-14.74m
-13.00m
-3.63m
-3.44m

Shares
-14.73m
-1.65m
-1.50m
-0.48m
-0.47m

Page 6

Financial summary
Profit and loss statement
(Year-end March)
Revenue
Growth (%)
(Inc.)/Dec. in stock trade
Raw material Costs
Employee Costs
Statutory Levies
Other Expenditure
Op. Expenditure
EBITDA
Growth (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Growth (%)
Tax
Reported PAT
Growth (%)
EPS

| Crore
FY14
9,612.7
-3.4
7.9
0.0
1473.2
2878.9
1219.0
5578.9
4,033.8
-13.6
1177.0
2856.8
68.8
1622.5
4410.4
-16.5
1429.1
2,981.3
-16.9
49.6

FY15
9,753.7
1.5
-19.1
0.0
1587.5
2814.4
1833.2
6216.1
3,537.7
-12.3
741.7
2795.9
340.7
1271.6
3726.9
-15.5
1218.5
2,508.4
-15.9
41.7

FY16E
11,428.6
17.2
14.2
0.0
1709.0
3124.2
1614.5
6461.9
4,966.7
40.4
894.4
4072.2
376.2
1101.4
4797.4
28.7
1599.8
3,197.6
27.5
53.2

FY17E
11,469.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
1828.6
3421.0
1597.4
6847.0
4,622.0
-6.9
962.7
3659.3
386.3
1087.0
4360.0
-9.1
1403.9
2,956.1
-7.6
49.2

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Cash flow statement

(Year-end March)
Profit after Tax
Less: Dividend Paid
Add: Depreciation
Add: Others
Cash Profit
Increase/(Decrease) in CL
(Increase)/Decrease in CA
CF from Operating Activities
Purchase of Fixed Assets
(Inc)/Dec in Investments
Others
CF from Investing Activities
Inc/(Dec) in Loan Funds
Inc/(Dec) in Sh. Cap. & Res.
Others
CF from financing activities
Change in cash Eq.
Op. Cash and cash Eq.
Cl. Cash and cash Eq.

| Crore
FY14
2,981.3
1,512.1
1,177.0
95.6
2,741.8
-411.7
108.7
2438.8
1,241.0
-9,599.5
1.0
-10,840.6
8,723.8
29.5
0.0
8,753.3
351.6
12,048.7
12,400.3

FY15
2,508.4
1,406.6
741.7
100.0
1,943.5
-550.1
-35.4
1358.0
1,748.5
2,670.8
1.0
922.3
0.0
-29.5
0.0
-29.5
2,250.8
12,400.3
14,651.1

FY16E
3,197.6
1,758.3
894.4
100.0
2,433.7
559.3
-252.4
2740.6
1,862.9
0.0
2.0
-1,862.9
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
877.7
14,651.1
15,528.9

FY17E
2,956.1
1,758.3
962.7
100.0
2,261.5
-82.6
-6.1
2172.8
1,905.1
0.0
3.0
-1,905.1
-250.0
1.0
2.0
-249.0
18.7
15,528.9
15,547.5

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

344.5
206.3
49.6
69.2
21.5

362.3
243.7
41.7
54.1
20.0

386.3
258.3
53.2
68.1
25.0

406.2
258.6
49.2
65.2
25.0

42.0
31.0
1.4
36.8
17.7
57.7

36.3
25.7
1.2
37.0
18.0
50.0

43.5
28.0
1.3
37.0
18.0
50.0

40.3
25.8
1.2
37.0
18.0
50.0

14.4
9.4
16.0

11.5
8.9
16.7

13.8
12.3
23.6

12.1
10.8
20.1

9.0
1.3
6.0
2.5

10.7
1.2
6.2
2.3

8.4
1.2
4.3
1.9

9.1
1.1
4.5
1.8

0.5
41.5
2.4
5.5
5.1

0.4
8.2
2.8
7.5
7.2

0.4
10.8
2.0
6.5
6.2

0.4
9.5
2.1
6.7
6.3

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Balance sheet

| Crore

(Year-end March)
Source of Funds
Equity Capital
Preference capital
Reserves & Surplus
Shareholder's Fund
Loan Funds
Deferred Tax Liability
Minority Interest
Source of Funds

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

601.1
0.0
20,108.3
20,709.4
9,782.7
1,314.2
0.0
32,019.0

601.1
0.0
21,180.5
21,781.7
9,782.7
1,414.2
0.0
33,191.3

601.1
0.0
22,619.8
23,221.0
9,782.7
1,514.2
1.0
34,730.6

601.1
0.0
23,818.6
24,419.7
9,532.7
1,614.2
2.0
35,780.3

Application of Funds
Net Block
Capital WIP
Producing Properties
Pre-Producing Properties
Total Fixed Assets
Investments
Inventories
Debtor
Cash
Loan & Advance, Other CA
Total Current assets
Current Liabilities
Provisions
Total CL and Provisions
Net Working Capital
Miscellaneous expense
Application of Funds

436.8
753.7
4,383.8
1,337.0
6,911.3
11,456.6
968.7
465.7
12,400.3
2,883.9
16,718.6
1,520.6
1,546.9
3,067.5
13,651.1
0.0
32,019.0

423.7
786.4
5,082.0
1,626.0
7,918.1
8,785.9
988.7
481.0
14,651.1
2,883.9
19,004.8
1,336.1
1,181.3
2,517.4
16,487.3
0.0
33,191.3

387.4
819.1
5,765.0
1,915.0
8,886.5
8,785.9
1,158.5
563.6
15,528.9
2,883.9
20,134.9
1,565.6
1,511.1
3,076.7
17,058.2
0.0
34,730.6

328.1
851.8
6,446.0
2,203.0
9,828.9
8,785.9
1,162.6
565.6
15,547.5
2,883.9
20,159.7
1,571.1
1,423.0
2,994.1
17,165.6
0.0
35,780.4

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Key ratios
(Year-end March)
Per share data (|)
Book Value
Cash per share
EPS
Cash EPS
DPS
Profitability & Operating Ratios
EBITDA Margin (%)
PAT Margin (%)
Fixed Asset Turnover (x)
Inventory Turnover (Days)
Debtor (Days)
Current Liabilities (Days)
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Valuation Ratios (x)
PE
Price to Book Value
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Leverage & Solvency Ratios
Debt to equity (x)
Interest Coverage (x)
Debt to EBITDA (x)
Current Ratio
Quick ratio

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 7

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Oil & Gas)

CMP
Sector / Company
(|) TP(|) Rating
292 284 Hold
Aban Offshore (ABALLO)
167 179 Hold
Cairn India (CAIIND)
340 390 Hold
GAIL (India) (GAIL)
743
UR
UR
Gujarat Gas (GUJGAS)
Gulf Oil Lubricants (GULO)
475 513 Hold
Hindustan Petroleum (HINPET)
883 766 Hold
Indian Oil Corporation (INDOIL)
394 402 Hold
Indraprastha Gas (INDGAS)
489 547
Buy
Mangalore Refinery (MRPL)
73
84
Buy
448 550
Buy
Oil India Limited (OILIND)
193 225
Buy
Petronet LNG (PETLNG)
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

M Cap
EPS (|)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
RoCE (%)
RoE (%)
(| Cr) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E
1,723 90.1 73.9 83.1
3.4
4.1
3.6
6.3
6.3
5.7
9.3
8.1
8.2
9.5
7.3
7.6
31,674 23.9 16.2 15.3
7.0 10.3 10.9
3.6
5.6
5.6 10.1
3.3
3.2
7.6
5.1
4.8
43,128 24.0 16.9 20.8 14.2 20.1 16.4 10.7 11.7 10.1 10.0
8.1
9.3 10.4
7.2
8.6
9,530 24.5 24.3 26.3 30.4 30.6 28.2 22.0 21.0 18.5 27.2 26.6 27.7 23.0 21.2 21.2
2,355 15.6 18.3 20.5 30.4 25.9 23.2 18.5 16.0 14.4 30.9 34.1 35.3 41.4 40.3 37.7
29,935 80.6 90.8 68.2 11.0
9.7 12.9
9.8
7.8
9.2
8.8 10.0
7.5 16.9 16.7 11.6
95,661 21.7 34.8 32.9 18.1 11.3 12.0
9.4
5.0
5.1
4.2
9.3
8.8
7.6 11.2
9.9
6,846 31.3 33.1 37.2 15.6 14.8 13.1
8.5
7.6
6.6 28.7 27.8 26.1 20.9 18.9 18.2
12,794
-9.8
7.0 10.2 -7.5 10.4
7.1 -10.0
8.0
5.4 -18.6 13.4 19.1 -33.5 20.2 24.1
26,930 41.7 53.2 49.2 10.7
8.4
9.1
6.2
4.3
4.5
8.9 12.3 10.8 11.5 13.8 12.1
14,475 11.8 12.3 15.4 16.4 15.7 12.5 11.9 10.7
8.2 11.4 12.4 15.3 15.5 14.4 15.8

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 8

RATING RATIONALE

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns

ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them
as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional
target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.
Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;
Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;
Hold: Up to +/-10%;
Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 9

Disclaimer
ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

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