August

g 17,, 2015

Weekly Call

Research Analysts
Dharmesh Shah
Nitin Kunte, CMT
Dipesh Dagha
Pabitro Mukherjee
Vinayak Parmar

dharmesh.shah@icicisecurities.com
nitin.kunte@icicisecurities.com
dipesh.dagha@icicisecurities.com
pabitro.mukherjee@icicisecurities.com
vinayak.parmar@icicisecurities.com

Weekly
Calls At Your Service
Deal Team

Jet Airways (JETAIR)

Code

JETAIR

CMP

| 400.65

Comment

Bounced form lower end of

the Green rising channel.

Action

Buy in the range of 370-375

Reco. Date 17th Aug2015

Stop-loss

| 350

Targets

| 425 / higher

Source: ASA, ICICIdirect.com Research

Trend Scanner

Deal Team At Your Service

Positive Trends

Candlestick Pattern

Scrip Name

Close

100 days EMA

Delivery % 5 days Averge

Bullish Candlestick Formations

165.0

166.0

41.00

Scrip Name

1,301.8

1,230.0

1,163.0

38.00

JB Chemical

Engulfing Bull

2,703.2

2,560.0

2,556.0

71.00

Sonata Software

Engulfing Bull

2,183.0

1,938.0

1,872.0

43.00

Reliance Inds

Hammer

20 600 0
20,600.0

19 629 0
19,629.0

18 516 0
18,516.0

37 00
37.00

Divis Lab

Bank of Baroda

184.4

Strides Arcolab
TCS
Divis Lab
Eicher Motors

50 days EMA

Negative Trends
Scrip Name

Close

Just Dial

1,018.9

Hindalco

93 2
93.2

50 days EMA

100 days EMA

Delivery % 5 days Averge

1,112.1

1,168.0

36.00

110 0
110.0

119 0
119.0

35 00
35.00

Bearish Candlestick Formations

Pattern name

LTP

Scrip Name

Pattern name

LTP

263.8

BPCL

Engulfing Bear

873.8

160.6

Cox & Kings

Evening Star

259.0

967.0

Hindalco

Continuous

93.2

Continuous

2183.0

Just Dial

Continuous

1018.9

Infosys

Continuous

1149.3

Tata Steel

Continuous

237.6

PNB

Continuous

166.3

UBL

Continuous

961.8

Voltas

Hammer

315.3

TCS

Continuous

2703.2

Legend
Positive and Negative Trends:
The stocks listed in the positive and negative trends section above have been identified after running multiple technical queries based on combination of
various technical parameters applied on a group of NSE cash stocks. The query modules are designed to recognise stocks, which are either at attractive
technical entry levels based on overall price structure or resolving out of medium term consolidation. Consequently the query modules are also aimed at
identifying the stocks which are under performers or in established down trends and therefore may not be good bets from short to medium term perspective.
Candlestick patterns:
Candlestick formations on weekly time interval charts typically point towards the prevailing sentiment comprising the entire trading week and could prove as
an important tool for short term traders. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More
importance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend. A more detailed description of Candlestick patterns and the way to
understand them is listed at the end of the report

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Market Activity
Domestic Sectoral Indices Performance

Gl b l Markets
Global
M k ts
China

3,965.3
5.9%

US

2,091.5
0.7%

Japan

20,519.5
-1.0%

Brazil

47,508.4
-2.2%

Hong Kong

23,991.0
-2.3%

UK

6,550.7
-2.5%

France

4,956.5
-3.8%

Germany

10,985.1
-4.4%

Global Currencies, Commodities & Bond Yields

48.60
0.4%
7.75
-6.5
6 5 bbps
0.66
-0.1 bps

Silver (ounce)

US 10 Year
JPY 10 Year

11.0
2.3
7.7
9.2
-22.3
2.1
-2.0
-14.1
2.6
7.2
6.4

-0.5%
5,157.25

Nifty Gainers / Losers for the week (%)

-0.1%
15.3

5.9
4.50

2.8%

5.8

5.4

4.9
-9.3

-9.7

-15.0

-17.2

VEDL

2.1%

Copper (tonne)

0.98

1.4
-2.9
3.9
4.4
-11.2
-4.8
-3.9
-4.3
-0.6
-0.7
-2.2

HINDALCO

1,116.60

Swiss Franc

-1.3
-2.7
3.1
4.1
-10.0
-4.6
-2.5
-0.6
-1.1
-0.9
-2.8

TATAMOTORS

EURO 10 Year

0.0%

1.56
1.0%

11264.44
7923.25
18058.72
11621.55
7806.25
9507.63
2012.31
1429.03
11236.11
11453.78
11766.78

TATASTEEL

India 10 year

124.35

British Pound

Cons durables
FMCG
Healthcare
IT
Metal
Oil & gas
Power
Realty
BSE 500
BSE midcap
BSE small cap

-3.50

2.19
1 bbps

-11.50

0.39

-19.50

-1.4 bps

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

INFY

Brent Crude/barrel

1.2%

-1.0%

3M
1.1
1.5
1.1
0.4
91
9.1

SUNPHARMA

Gold/ounce

1.11

96 66
96.66

1M
-2.0
-2.1
-0.5
-3.0
-22.55

LUPIN

Japanese Yen

-1.9%

Dollar Index

1Wk
-0.6
-0.5
-1.5
-1.0
-22.44

TCS

Euro

65 01
65.01

Current
28067.31
8518.55
19461.68
21488.24
17955 01
17955.01

% Change

Rupee (|)

INDICES
Sensex
Nifty
Auto
Banking
Capital goods

Market Activity
Deal Team At Your Service
Institutional flow trends of last 12 months
Series2

Series1

30000

Series3

9244

5442

-1175 217

5319

10326

28000
27000

-3344

-5768 4177

12078

29000

117211

3940

4309

880
12919

-1172

-1000

11476

5103

4000

5940

4172

9000

2132 7037

14000

13753

1677

19000

Aug'15

July'15

June'15

May'15

Apr'15

Mar'15

Feb'15

Jan'15

Dec'14

Oct'14

Nov'14

25000

Sep'14

6000
-6000

Weekly market breadth trends

Advance %

Decline %

Sensex

80%
60%

27316

27812

28093

28463

27661

28112

28115

28236

28067

44%
%
56%
%

10-Jul-15

56%
%
44%
%

3-Jul-15

%
54%
46%
%

26-Jun-15

51%
%
49%

19-Jun-15

57%
43%

%
54%
%
46%

0%

55%
45%

20%

53%
%
47%

40%

58%
42%

Perccentage

26000

17-Jul-15

24-Jul-15

31-Jul-15

7-Aug-15

14-Aug-15

Week Ended

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

29500
28000
26500
25000
23500

Previous
Weeks
Deal Team
AtPerformance
Your Service
Date
10-Aug
10-Aug

Scrip
Gabriel
Uflex

Product
Cash
Cash

Strategy
Buy
Buy

RP
90.00
181.00

Target
101.00
215.00

SL
84.0
166.00

Gain/Loss % Comment
0
Closed at cost
-5.0
Square off at 171.00

Nifty Stocks Pivot points for the Week (August 17 21,

21 2015)
COMPANY

CMP

PIVOT

S1

S2

R1

R2

NIFTY

8518.55

8492.68

8363.82

8209.08

8647.42

8776.28

SENSEX

28067.31

27988.11

27558.63

27049.95

28496.79

28926.27

ACC

1372.05

1378.68

1348.42

1324.78

1402.32

1432.58

AMBUJACEM

226 30
226.30

220 57
220.57

210 73
210.73

195 17
195.17

236 13
236.13

245 97
245.97

ASIANPAINT

895.25

891.28

866.32

837.38

920.22

945.18

AXISBANK

570.00

569.85

555.00

540.00

584.85

599.70

BAJAJ-AUTO

2558.60

2518.08

2462.52

2366.43

2614.17

2669.73

BANKBARODA

184.40

182.15

177.60

170.80

188.95

193.50

BHARTIARTL

395.10

395.90

376.35

357.60

414.65

434.20

BHEL

261 50
261.50

262 90
262.90

251 00
251.00

240 50
240.50

273 40
273.40

285 30
285.30

BOSCHLTD

25387.35

25619.07

24518.18

23649.02

26488.23

27589.12

BPCL

873.75

903.70

827.85

781.95

949.60

1025.45

CAIRN

155.70

157.20

146.10

136.50

166.80

177.90

CIPLA

739.60

722.20

714.15

688.70

747.65

755.70

COALINDIA

377.55

385.93

353.82

330.08

409.67

441.78

DRREDDY

4257 75
4257.75

4253 67
4253.67

4189 03
4189.03

4120 32
4120.32

4322 38
4322.38

4387 02
4387.02

GAIL

337.15

336.82

327.33

317.52

346.63

356.12

GRASIM

3703.75

3704.67

3573.08

3442.42

3835.33

3966.92

HCLTECH

973.70

964.23

939.57

905.43

998.37

1023.03

HDFC

1299.95

1294.48

1255.57

1211.18

1338.87

1377.78

HDFCBANK

1101.80

1091.45

1076.95

1052.10

1116.30

1130.80

Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research

Nifty Stocks Pivot points for the Week (August 17 - 21, 2015)
COMPANY
HEROMOTOCO

CMP

PIVOT

S1

S2

R1

R2

2712.45

2687.18

2644.47

2576.48

2755.17

2797.88

HINDALCO

93.15

98.13

84.52

75.88

106.77

120.38

HINDUNILVR

870.55

876.52

844.03

817.52

903.03

935.52

ICICIBANK

302.60

302.23

290.47

278.33

314.37

326.13

IDEA

161.25

161.63

155.27

149.28

167.62

173.98

INDUSINDBK

959.00

941.08

924.17

889.33

975.92

992.83

INFY

1149.25

1123.88

1080.92

1012.58

1192.22

1235.18

ITC

318.15

316.13

305.02

291.88

329.27

340.38

KOTAKBANK

717.70

705.58

694.67

671.63

728.62

739.53

LT

1799.50

1797.23

1750.27

1701.03

1846.47

1893.43

LUPIN

1793.45

1749.23

1724.67

1655.88

1818.02

1842.58

M&M

1378.15

1356.03

1317.12

1256.08

1417.07

1455.98

MARUTI

4572 50
4572.50

4507 50
4507.50

4481 00
4481.00

4389 50
4389.50

4599 00
4599.00

4625 50
4625.50

NMDC

97.25

98.75

92.50

87.75

103.50

109.75

NTPC

129.65

130.28

125.97

122.28

133.97

138.28

ONGC

270.40

273.57

262.43

254.47

281.53

292.67

PNB

166.25

160.00

157.70

149.15

168.55

170.85

POWERGRID

138.35

135.28

129.07

119.78

144.57

150.78

RELIANCE

966.95

961.72

934.63

902.32

994.03

1021.12

SBIN

268.50

271.00

252.55

236.60

286.95

305.40

SUNPHARMA

897.70

872.23

856.47

815.23

913.47

929.23

TATAMOTORS

355.25

365.22

335.13

315.02

385.33

415.42

TATAPOWER

69.70

69.23

67.72

65.73

71.22

72.73

TATASTEEL

237.60

243.87

222.73

207.87

258.73

279.87

TCS

2703.20

2643.10

2602.20

2501.20

2744.10

2785.00

TECHM

555.05

549.80

532.10

509.15

572.75

590.45

ULTRACEMCO

3103.90

3121.07

3013.28

2922.67

3211.68

3319.47

VEDL

107.10

112.48

93.87

80.63

125.72

144.33

WIPRO

575.25

570.53

559.77

544.28

586.02

596.78

YESBANK

796.80

796.10

757.90

719.00

835.00

873.20

ZEEL

419.80

412.18

405.62

391.43

426.37

432.93

Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research

Forthcoming Economic Events Calendar

Deal Team At Your Service

Date

Event

US

17-Aug
17-Aug
18-Aug
18-Aug
g
18-Aug
19-Aug
19-Aug
19-Aug
20-Aug
20-Aug
20-Aug
20-Aug
20-Aug

Empire Manufacturing
NAHB Housing Market Index
Net Long-term TIC Flows
Total Net TIC Flows
Housing Starts
CPI MoM
CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from July 28-29 FOMC Meeting
Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing claims
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
Bloomberg Economic Expectations
Existing Home Sales
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook

India

25-Aug
31-Aug
31-Aug

Eight Infrastructure Industries

Fiscal Deficit INR Crore
GDP YoY

China

18-Aug
20-Aug

China July Property Prices

MNI August Business Indicator

UK

17-Aug
18-Aug
18-Aug
19-Aug
19-Aug
20-Aug
21-Aug
21-Aug

Rightmove House Prices MoM/YoY

CPI MoM/YoY
RPI MoM/YoY
CBI Trends Total Orders
CBI Trends Selling Prices
Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel MoM/YoY
Public Finances (PSNCR)
Central Government NCR

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Notes

Deal Team At Your Service

Please
Pl
execute the
h recommendation
d i within
i hi the
h prescribed
ib d range provided
id d iin the
h report
Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report on closing basis
We adapt a trading strategy of booking 50% profit when the position is in profit by 3-5% and trail stoploss on remaining position to the
entry point
In recommendations where it is advised to buy on declines, if the target price is hit before activation of the call in prescribed range then the
recommendation is considered not initiated
The recommendations are valid only for the week and are to be squared off by the end of the week. In case we intend to carry forward the
position, it will be communicated through separate mail
Trading Portfolio allocation
It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products
Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment
Within
Withi each
h product
d t segmentt it is
i advisable
d i bl to
t allocate
ll
t equall amountt to
t each
h recommendation
d ti
For example: The Daily Calls product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each
recommendation

Recommended Product wise Trading Portfolio allocation

Deal Team At Your Service

10

Candlesticks Glossary:

Deal Team At Your Service

Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period.
period Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and,
and therefore,
therefore are
important for a chart reader. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More importance
needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend
Morning Star: Potential bottom reversal pattern made of three candle lines. The first sizeable black candle reflects a market in which the bears are in complete
charge. The next candle line--the small real body--shows a slight diminution of the bearish force. The white candle that makes up the last part of the morning
star visually displays the bulls are gaining the upper hand. Lowest low amongst three candles becomes technical support
Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern.
pattern This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend.
downtrend The market falls,
falls and a
black candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the prior sessions black body. Low of the pattern becomes short term
support for prices
Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on the next sessions open but that
session culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the prior black body. Lowest low between two candles is referred to
as technical support for prices
Hammer: A candlestick line which,
which during a downtrend,
downtrend has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the session
sessionss
range. There should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during declines and needs confirmation in terms of sustainability of
prices above head of the Hammer in following session
Evening Star: Potential Top reversal pattern made of three candle lines. Comparable with a traffic signal. First white candle reflects a market in bullish trend.
The next candle line--the small real bodywarns waning momentum. The black candle that completes the evening star visually exhibits that prior up trend has
stopped or reversed
Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal.
signal This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally.
rally A black candle real body wraps around a white real
body (classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance level for prices for future reference
Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The second sessions price opens over
the prior sessions high (or above the prior sessions close). By the end of the second session, it closes near the low of the session and should fall well into the
prior sessions white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor chance of rising immediately
Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the session's range and a very
long upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead
Continuation Patterns: Other than widely known Candlestick reversal patterns discussed above, there are numerous patterns mentioned in literature on
Candlestick which describe the continuation of existing sentiments i.e. bullish or bearish. We have refrained from mentioning names of these patterns to avoid
confusion. However, the remark Continuation Pattern refers to bullish or bearish candlestick patterns which suggest continuation of existing trend

11

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
p
Dagha,
g , Pabitro Mukherjee,
j , Vinayak
y Parmar Research Analysts,
y , authors and the names subscribed to
We //I,, Dharmesh Shah,, Nitin Kunte,, Dipesh
this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or
securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or
view(s) in this report.
Terms & conditions and other disclosures:
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(ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of
fi
financial
i l products.
d t ICICI S
Securities
iti iis a wholly-owned
h ll
d subsidiary
b idi
off ICICI B
Bankk which
hi h iis IIndias
di llargestt private
i t sector
t b
bankk and
dh
has it
its various
i
subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management,
etc. (associates), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.
ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India.
We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our
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The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and
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This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been
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report Nothing in this report constitutes investment,
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representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions
expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment
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Disclaimer
ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not
necessarily
il a guide
id tto ffuture
t
performance.
f
IInvestors
t
are advised
d i d tto see Ri
Riskk Di
Disclosure
l
D
Documentt to
t understand
d t d the
th risks
i k associated
i t d before
b f
investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not
predictions and may be subject to change without notice.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been
mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding
twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co
co-managing
managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment
banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant
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ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI
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connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of
i
interest
at the
h time
i
off publication
bli i off this
hi report.
It is confirmed that Dharmesh Shah, Nitin Kunte, Dipesh Dagha, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts of this report have not
received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months.
Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.
ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in
the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.
Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses
businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership
in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.