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Italy
Executive summary
Italy is expected to grow on average -0.6% in the coming years. This is relatively low compared to the average of other
European countries and also relatively low compared to the global average of 3.7%. Because of its own economic growth and
that of its main trading partners, Italy's exports are expected to grow 4.9% annually to US$ 698 bn in 2017, making Italy the 10th
largest exporter worldwide. Similarly, import demand will grow with an average of 7.8% per year to US$ 873 bn in 2017,
meaning that Italy will take the 9th position on the global list of largest importers. By 2017, Italy will mainly import fuels,
chemicals and office telecom & electrical equipment, which together account for 35% of total imports of Italy. Similarly, Italy's
exports will mainly consist of industrial machinery, and other manufactured products. Together these products will represent
46% of total exports in 2017. By 2017, Italy will mainly import products from Germany, China and France, which together
account for 33% of total imports of Italy. Italy's main export markets will be Germany, France and the US. Together these
countries will account for 35% of total exports in 2017.
International
Trade
Italy
2011
Exports by region
Economy
2012F
2013F
2014F
-2.4%
-0.5%
1.0%
$ 2,067
$ 2,090
$ 2,119
1.22
1.28
1.30
3.3%
2.0%
2.0%
Exchange rate*
EUR/USD
Inflation:
GDP composition by sector
Agriculture:
Industry:
Services:
CIS
4%
EU
North
America
55%
Asia
7%
16%
Africa
4.2%
2010
1.9%
25.2%
72.9%
South America
Oceania
4%
0.9%
Population
Population (mln):
GDP per capita:
Unemployment rate (avg.):
Employment (mln persons):
2011
2030
60.6
60.9
Exports (bn)
$33,942
8.4%
$523
$558
-$34.33
Exports % of GDP
24%
22.977
Food & live animals
Other indicators
2011
2012
43
42
83
87
Credit rating :
S&P
BBB+
Moodys
Baa2
Fitch:
A-
*end period
Imports (bn)
2013
73
Exports $28.76
Exports $8.38
Exports $2.49
Imports $40.97
Imports $4.91
Imports $4.34
Crude materials,
inedible, except fuels
Manufactured goods
Miscellaneous
manufactured articles
Exports $6.68
Exports $101.48
Exports $88.01
Imports $25.26
Imports $82.94
Imports $58.68
Mineral fuels
Chemicals
Exports $183.63
Exports $24.81
Exports $59.12
Imports $138.38
Imports $110.52
Imports $77.13
12
1.0
-2.4
-0.5
2012
2013
2014
Commonwealth of
Independent States
United States
2.1
1.8
2.1
2012
2013
2014
European Union
Central and Eastern Europe
-0.2
0.5
1.5
2012
2013
2014
2.0
2.6
3.2
2012
2013
2014
MENA
South America
3.2
3.9
4.1
2012
2013
2014
4.0
4.1
4.2
2012
2013
2014
Developing Asia
5.3
3.6
3.8
2012
2013
2014
6.7
7.2
7.5
2012
2013
2014
Economic growth in the coming years will remains sluggish in developed markets. Especially the Eurozone will only experience
limited growth as the region continues to struggle with the Eurocrisis. World output growth is strongly driven by emerging
markets, in particular China and other developing Asian countries.
The Italian economy is predicted to show positive growth after 2013, with 1,0% in 2014.
Trade forecast
1000
bn $
1000
900
900
800
800
700
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
bn $
Total imports
Total exports
2011
Italy
World ranking
CAGR 2012-2017
2011
2017
10
Italy
World ranking
CAGR 2012-2017
2017
7.8%
In the coming years, exports (in current dollar terms) are expected to increase with 4.9% annually. The rank of Italy in the
list of largest exporters worldwide will decrease to 10.
Demand for foreign products (imports) is also expected to increase in the next five years, with 7.8% annually. The rank of
Italy in the list of largest importers worldwide will decrease to 9.
Worldwide, the top three export and import countries in 2017 will be China, United States and Germany. The countries that
show the greatest increase in demand for imports of foreign products are Vietnam, Indonesia and Taiwan.
Today (2012)
Tomorrow (2017)
bn $
2011
2017
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
CAGR 2012-2017
Value 2011
Import product
Origin
mln $
Fuels
Russia
|||| 5%
|||||||||||||||||||||| 22768
Germany
||||| 6%
|||||||||||||||| 16213
Fuels
Kazakhstan
||| 4%
||||||||||||| 13794
Germany
||||| 5%
|||||||||| 10980
Chemicals
Germany
||||||| 7%
||||||||| 9933
China
Industrial machinery
Germany
Fuels
Saudi Arabia
Netherlands
|||||| 7%
||||||| 7317
France
|||||| 6%
||||||| 7180
|||||||||||||||| 16%
||||| 5%
||||||||||| 11%
||||||||| 9748
||||||||| 9699
|||||||| 8856
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
bn $
Textiles
Ores and metals
Fuels
2017
2011
Chemicals
2007
Pharmaceuticals
Industrial machinery
Office, telecom and electrical equipment
Road vehicles & transport equipment
Other manufactures
Other products
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
By 2017, Italy will mainly import fuels, chemicals and office telecom & electrical equipment, which together account
for 35% of total imports of Italy.
Today (2012)
Tomorrow (2017)
bn $
2011
2017
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
CAGR 2012-2017
Value 2011
Export product
Export partner
mln $
Industrial machinery
Germany
Other products
France
|||||| 7%
||||||||| 9257
Industrial machinery
France
| 2%
|||||||| 8415
Other manufactures
Germany
|||| 4%
|||||||| 8279
Germany
|||| 5%
||||||| 7914
Other manufactures
France
||||| 6%
||||||| 7912
Germany
||||| 5%
||||||| 7516
France
||| 4%
|||||| 6816
Industrial machinery
United States
||| 4%
|||||| 6774
Chemicals
Germany
||| 3%
|||||| 6686
| 2%
|||||||||| 10840
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
bn $
Textiles
Ores and metals
Fuels
2017
2011
Chemicals
2007
Pharmaceuticals
Industrial machinery
Office, telecom and electrical equipment
Road vehicles & transport equipment
Other manufactures
Other products
20
40
60
80
100
120
By 2017, Italy's exports will mainly consist of industrial machinery, and other manufactured products. Together
these products will represent 46% of total exports in 2017.
140
Data (1990-2011) for exports from and among 60 countries (forming 3600 country pairs) at the SITC(rev.3)
2-digit product classification were obtained from UNCTAD International Trade Statistics.
These were combined with several macroeconomic variables, including GDP, GDP growth, and unit labour
costs (GDP/capita) (for both the origin and destination country; source: IMF), as well as geographical
distance and cultural distance between the two countries in each country pair (source: CEPII; Hofstede).
Forecasts for macroeconomic variables (GDP, GDP growth and ULC) for the 2012-2017 period were based
on our own ING forecasts.
The trade forecasts were derived from a single equation ADL, explaining 90% of the variance in the
dependent variable, specified as follows:
where LogExportsijkt represents the logarithmic value of exports of country i to country j of product k at time t;
j the set of partner fixed effects, d the set of product group fixed effects, LogExports x d the set of interactions
between LogExports and the product group binary variables d, and X the set of independent variables with their
vector of coefficients ; and ijkt the residual.
The set of independent variables (X) includes (the log of) GDP; GDP growth and ULC for the reporter (i) and partner
countries (j) and the geographical and cultural distance between them.
Disclaimer
The views expressed in this report reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) on the subject on this report. No
part of the compensation(s) of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of
specific views in this report. This report was prepared on behalf of ING Bank N.V. (ING), solely for the
information of its clients. This report is not, nor should it be construed as, an investment advice or an offer or
solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or product. While reasonable care has been taken
to ensure that the information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, ING makes
no representation that it is accurate or complete in all respects. The information contained herein is subject to
change without notice. Neither ING nor any of its officers or employees accept any liability for any direct or
consequential loss or damage arising from any use of this report or its contents. Copyright and database rights
protection exists with respect to (the contents of) this report. Therefore, nothing contained in this report may be
reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior written consent of ING. All
rights are reserved. Investors should make their own investment decisions without relying on this report. Only
investors with sufficient knowledge and experience in financial matters to evaluate the merits and risks should
consider an investment in any issuer or market discussed herein and other persons should not take any action on
the basis of this report. ING Bank N.V. is a legal entity under Dutch Law and is a registered credit institution
supervised by the Dutch Central Bank (De Nederlandsche Bank N.V.) and the Netherlands Authority for the
Financial Markets (Stichting Autoriteit Financile Markten). ING Bank N.V., London branch is regulated for the
conduct of investment business in the UK by the Financial Services Authority. ING Bank N.V., London branch is
registered in the UK (number BR000341) at 60 London Wall, London EC2M 5TQ. ING Financial Markets LLC,
which is a member of the NYSE, NASD and SIPC and part of ING, has accepted responsibility for the distribution
of this report in the United States under applicable requirements.
Disclaimer
The views expressed in this report reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) on the subject on this report. No
part of the compensation(s) of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of
specific views in this report. This report was prepared on behalf of ING Bank N.V. (ING), solely for the
information of its clients. This report is not, nor should it be construed as, an investment advice or an offer or
solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or product. While reasonable care has been taken
to ensure that the information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, ING makes
no representation that it is accurate or complete in all respects. The information contained herein is subject to
change without notice. Neither ING nor any of its officers or employees accept any liability for any direct or
consequential loss or damage arising from any use of this report or its contents. Copyright and database rights
protection exists with respect to (the contents of) this report. Therefore, nothing contained in this report may be
reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior written consent of ING. All
rights are reserved. Investors should make their own investment decisions without relying on this report. Only
investors with sufficient knowledge and experience in financial matters to evaluate the merits and risks should
consider an investment in any issuer or market discussed herein and other persons should not take any action on
the basis of this report. ING Bank N.V. is a legal entity under Dutch Law and is a registered credit institution
supervised by the Dutch Central Bank (De Nederlandsche Bank N.V.) and the Netherlands Authority for the
Financial Markets (Stichting Autoriteit Financile Markten). ING Bank N.V., London branch is regulated for the
conduct of investment business in the UK by the Financial Services Authority. ING Bank N.V., London branch is
registered in the UK (number BR000341) at 60 London Wall, London EC2M 5TQ. ING Financial Markets LLC,
which is a member of the NYSE, NASD and SIPC and part of ING, has accepted responsibility for the distribution
of this report in the United States under applicable requirements.
Telephone
+ 31 20 576 9450
Fabienne.Fortanier@ing.nl
Mohammed Nassiri
Research Assistant International Trade Study
+ 31 20 563 4444
Mohammed.Nassiri@ing.nl
Paolo.Pizzoli@ing.it
Robert Gunther
Senior Communications & PR Manager
Robert.Gunther@ing.nl
Arjen Boukema
Senior Communications & PR Manager
Arjen.Boukema@ing.nl
Paolo Pizzoli
Senior Economist EMU, Italy, Greece