Apparently, people dont want to be concrete and precise.

Partly because
they are afraid too much openness might lead to strategic actions from
others involved, but partly also because they simply dont know. It is
much easier to announce your solution as being the best and defend
your choice with general things like it is sustainable or Ive been looking
into it very well and I can tell you Im impressed instead of giving open,
clear, and explicit arguments. However, this approach will lead to a lot of
discussion as others also announce and defend their chosen alternative.
By asking the what does this mean? question you force yourself and
others to be precise, concrete, and talk in terms of measurable things.
This might not completely remove the discussion about what to do, but
at least reduces this discussion to the hard-to-measure issues.

Making the problem explicit

powerful and to the point, this project will be carried out sustainably or
even this fish is caught sustainably from the sea.

2.4 What does the system look like? Causal diagram

So far, we have been very explicit about the problem, and expressed it
in terms of dilemmas and tensions from different actor perspectives.
Also, we have identified criteria (using a goal tree) so we can measure
to what extent the goals of the actors involved are reached with a
certain alternative. These criteria, of course, represent the tensions and
dilemmas in the different problem statements, so we can see whether
an alternative also actually solves these problems (i.e., decouples the
factors that may be conflicting; that cause the dilemma). If the dilemmas
in your problem statements are not present in your goal trees, go back
and change the goal trees, or improve the problem statements with the
information you gathered making the goal trees. This is the iterative,
non-linear character of these analyses, as we discussed in Chapter 1.

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A certain action will be an interesting alternative for a specific actor if

it is doing something that solves his problem. Now that the problems
held by different actors are represented in criteria using the goal tree
technique, an alternative becomes doing something that influences the
scores on the criteria.
Basically, anything that influences the scores on the criteria can be
treated as an alternative. Needless to say not all of these alternatives are
practical, not even good (i.e., influencing criteria in the desired direction
of change). However, how good certain alternatives are is a matter of
interpreting their scores on the criteria. First step is to find out what
influences the scores on the criteria.
Practically, lets take a criterion from our well-balanced set (derived
from all the goal trees we made for the actors involved) and ask two
questions: what factors influence this criterion? and what factors
are influenced by this criterion? Note that the questions we asked
when constructing a goal tree were definition questions (what does it
mean?), while these two questions are about causal relations (what
influences?).
Look at the figure below to distinguish the two types of questions. The
answer to the question what factor influences this criterion? question
are factors like factor A and B. If factors A and B change, then the value
of the criterion (which is also a factor) also changes. The answer to the
question what factors are influenced by this criterion? question are
factors like C and D. If the criterion changes in value, as a result, factors
C and D also change.
Factors A and B are causally related to the criterion (and not the other
way around!) The criterion is causally related to the factors C and D.

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Making the problem explicit

Factor A

Factor C

Criterion

Factor B

Factor D

What factors influence

the criterion?

What factors are

influenced by the
criterion?

Imagine the goal is cheap petrol, so the criterion becomes petrol price
in [/litre]. Factors in the category of Factors A and B in the left of
the figure could be crude oil price in [/barrel], demand for petrol in
[litre/week] and petrol production [litre/week]. Factors in the C and D
category on the right could be average distance travelled by car in [km/
week]. This would look like:
Demand for
petrol
[litre/week]

+
Crude oil price
[/barrel]

Petrol price
[/litre]

Average
distance
travelled by car
[km/week]

_
Petrol
production
[litre/week]

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When the crude oil price increases, it is likely that the petrol price also
increases, which is why there is a + near the arrow head of the arrow
between crude oil price and petrol price. Please note this causal relation
is NOT the other way around: a higher crude oil price is not caused by a
higher petrol price. When the petrol price increases you can expect that
people in the end will travel less by car, which is why there is a sign near
the arrowhead that causally links those two factors. (Experience tells us
that the petrol price must rise seriously before people really drive less.
Studies show people rather buy more fuel-efficient cars than drive less.
However, this is just an example for illustration.)
Are the four arrows in this figure representing all causal links between
the presented factors? What happens when, on average, people drive
less kilometres in their cars? They will use less petrol and the demand for
petrol decreases! And what will that do to petrol production? It will, in
the end, also decrease. So, the figure should look like:
+
Demand for
petrol
[litre/week]

+
Crude oil price
[/barrel]

Petrol price
[/litre]

Average
distance
travelled by car
[km/week]

_
+

Petrol
production
[litre/week]

When people drive more, there is a greater demand for petrol and
the price might go up. This increased price may cause people to drive
less, so the demand for petrol reduces. This principle of feedback

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Making the problem explicit

is very common to all complex multi-actor problems. In fact, if you

draw a causal diagram without feedback loops, you should seriously
think of where you missed important information about your system.
Feedbackloops are almost always present!
According to this rather simple causal diagram, the petrol price is
influenced by three factors. If we, in dealing with a problem, are
interested in a lower petrol price, then all actions that are lowering the
crude oil price, lowering the demand for petrol and/or are increasing the
petrol production, are alternatives to us. In this simple example we could
compare the alternatives to each other, looking at the extent to which
they lower the petrol price.
Of course, many other criteria matter as well, that is why we made the
effort to create all these goal trees for all actors involved to come to a
well-balanced set of criteria. Your complete causal diagram, including all
important criteria from the goal trees you designed, will be much larger.
Lets take a closer look at the elements in the causal diagram we have
just sketched. The formulation in the circles is special. Notice for
instance that we see no verbs, so, no actions are present in the causal
diagram. Also we dont see words like more, higher, lower, nor do we
see normative statements like good, sustainable or better. What we
see are words that together describe a characteristic of our problem, so,
a characteristic of the system we are studying.
A characteristic of our system in the example is what a litre of
petrol costs for somebody in that system. Or the amount of petrol
that is produced every week in this system.. We call these factors:
characteristics of the system. But there is more; we see that to every
factor in the causal diagram, a unit is attached. Petrol price, for
instance, is measured in [/litre], and petrol production in [litre/week].
That means that a factor is a characteristic of a system that can be

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measured (i.e., that can take a value) and that this value can constantly
change in time under the influence of other factors.
A factor like the weather is definitely a characteristic of some systems
and will be highly relevant for many problems. However, the value of
this factor cannot increase or decrease. In our simple causal diagram,
the value of the factor petrol price increases (e.g., from 1.30 per litre to
1.90) when the value of the factor crude oil price increases (e.g., from
50 per barrel, to 110). But how can the weather increase? Although
important for many problems, this factor cannot be used in a causal
diagram in this form. The weather is more a general concept that we can
represent by other, more concrete factors, like wind speed in [km/h] or
amount of rain (precipitation) in [mm/m2/year].
We discussed actions and alternatives earlier in this section and concluded
that every action influencing the value of one of the criteria in the causal
diagram is a potential alternative, as it changes the score on that criterion.
The causal diagram is very useful in connecting the alternatives to the
criteria. Its usefulness is that is shows how (i.e., through what mechanism)
the alternatives eventually change the value of the criteria. It makes it
possible to estimate the effects of different alternatives on the set of
criteria that is used. Therefore, it makes it possible that a client, in the end,
can compare the alternatives and choose one to solve the problem. In this
way, the causal diagram, like all other techniques presented in this book,
helps the client decide. In other words, it facilitates the decision-making
process.
What can help you practically when constructing a causal diagram is
toidentify factors using a table with three columns: concepts, factors
and units. Most of the time when you start studying a system, you have
some abstract ideas about things that are important. If the problem is
about alternative energy sources, you quickly might think about things like

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Making the problem explicit

climate, electricity usage, or environmental awareness. These factors

are not yet explicit, operational factors, but mere concepts. Putthese in
column 1, as in the table below.
Concepts

Factors

Units

Climate
Electricity usage
Environmental awareness

Now think of factors that can represent these three rather abstract
concepts. For climate you might think about temperature,
precipitation, wind and for electricity usage you might think about
demand, price and availability. For environmental awareness, this is
harder, but you might come up with based on literature research, for
example willingness to pay more for eco-friendly products or another
factor that influences the criteria in your system. Put these in column 2.
Concepts

Factors

Climate

Temperature

Units

Precipitation
Wind
Electricity usage

Demand
Price
Availability

Environmental awareness

Willingness to pay more for

eco-friendly products
Amount of awareness

Now think about the units for these factors. Temperature can be
measured in degrees Celsius. But it changes throughout the day and
from day to day. What is the temperature we want to measure? Probably
we want to know the average over the year, so the unit becomes [C]
and we rename the factor in average temperature of the region. For rain

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the same can be done, although we might not be interested as much

in averages, but more in the total amount: Precipitation measured in
[mm/m2/year]. It is the exercise of thinking in good units that makes you
formulate the factors more precisely and explicitly! Below, a possible
result is shown. Pay attention to the units of willingness to pay more for
eco-friendly products and amount of awareness. These percentages
cannot be determined precisely, but it is possible to make estimates or
use the results of a survey.
The units you choose are dependent on the problem you are analyzing:
rainfall might be measured in [mm/m2/year] when you are looking at
the climate, but when you are researching safety of water basins, or the
amount of water the soil can handle, you are more interested in heavy
rainfall, for example in [mm/m2/hour].
Concepts

Factors

Units

Climate

Average temperature

[C]

Precipitation

[mm/m2/year]

Average wind speed

[km/h]

Demand for electricity

[kWh/year]

Price of electricity

[/kWh]

Downtime of electricity
supply

[minute/year]

Electricity usage

Environmental
awareness

Willingness to pay more for [% (/)]

eco-friendly products
Amount of awareness

[% (aware people/total
number of people)]

If you had started to create a causal diagram using the first column
concepts, it would result in a model without much practical value. The
causal relations would be either vague or impossible to determine.

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Making the problem explicit

The exercise with the units made the factors more explicit. Using these
explicit factors of the second column makes creating a causal diagram
simple and straightforward. And, especially, easy to communicate to
your client and stakeholders, and thus easy to improve with their inputs.
The point with soft factors such as environmental awareness is that
everyone feels it has an influence, but it is too vague and ambiguous to
discuss, and the causal relations around it make it very difficult to think
of alternatives that may influence the criteria. The soft factors also make
it impossible to make calculations on the effects of the alternatives.
Making these soft factors more explicit will help in the debate on which
alternatives are available to deal with the problem.
What are commonly made mistakes and their effects when designing
causal diagrams?
Badly formulated factors in the diagram The problems we are facing
are very complex, involve many actors with their different perceptions
and often concern abstract notions and concepts like motivation,
sustainability and integral approach. It is not always easy to translate
these abstractions in factors the way we introduced them in this Section,
as characteristic of a system that can have a (dynamic) value. What
often happens is that such abstract notions (like the concepts in the
first column in the earlier table) become the centre of an impractical
star shaped causal diagram. Half of the factors influence this abstract
notion, while the other half is only influenced by it. It looks, for instance,
like the figure below:

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Salary

Production

+
Workplace
condition

Motivation of
workers

_
Illness leave

Working hours

This diagram does not help to clarify how the system works. Clearly,
somebody is interested in production numbers and in the illness leave
in a company. Instead of figuring out what mechanism influences these
two important criteria, the analyst came up with an abstract concept
(motivation) that has to represent this mechanism that the client is
actually looking for. Next step is that some general motivators are
introduced to make it look like a complete diagram. What is the added
value of such a diagram compared to what the client already knows or
assumes?
This diagram does not do more than reinforce the idea of the client
that motivation, whatever that is, is the key to the solution of the
problem. Will the addition of this diagram lead to a wider solution space
than money, working conditions, holidays or similar factors? Does
the client, after receiving this diagram, understand more about what
happens in the organisation and what mechanisms are present that
can be influenced? Although some clients like to have their own ideas
reinforced, this diagram creates no added value to the problem beyond
common sense.

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Making the problem explicit

Star or line shaped diagrams and unconnected diagram parts We

have already discussed the issue of star shaped causal diagrams above.
Some other shapes can also be seen often, like the line shaped diagrams
or separated pieces (islands) of a diagram that somehow should form a
coherent whole.

_
_
+

Line shaped diagrams are long causally related chains of factors that
are not connected to any other factor in the diagram. The analyst
seems to follow a certain line of reasoning that he was not able to leave.
Anexample is:
+
Rate of salary
[/month]

Amount of
money on
bank account
[]

Number of
expenditures
[expenditure/
week]

Number of
consumer goods
possessed
[good]

_
Amount of
space left in
the attic
[m2]

The system is represented in such a way that no other thing seems

possible to happen than this, and only this, causal chain. Apparently, the
analyst could not think about other possibilities present in the highly
complex problems we study. When you recognise long one-factor-onone-other-factor chains in a causal diagram, be aware. In this example,
the designer of this chain diagram literally copied the clients opinion
about how the system works (and, thus, also what should be done about
the problem appearing in this system).

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Clients often like to see their thoughts being reinforced, so they can say,
I told you I was right. Sometimes they even hire consultants or analysts
to only reinforce their ideas! However, clients also often have a single
actor perspective on the problem, which can be one of the reasons why
the problem persists. Here is where you, as analyst, can be of substantial
added value.
Too large causal diagrams You cannot model everything. The goal
for us is to explore the system (to be able to find alternatives) and to
communicate the behaviour of the system to the client and other actors.
If you make the causal diagram too large, it will be very difficult to read
and understand. A rule of thumb: limit yourself to 15 to 20 factors
maximum.

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Making the problem explicit

Sara, Peter and Walter

Meet Sara. Thirty years of age and with five years of working
experience, she works as a policy officer for the Ministry of Transport
of her national government. Sara is pretty good at what she does,
but definitely not a star in analysing situations or coming up with
new creative solutions to problems. That is unfortunate, because this
morning her supervisor Peter walks in with a challenging project.
Good morning Sara, how are you doing? I hope you are fine, because
I have an exciting project for you. As you know, in the past few years
there have been a number of policies in place to stimulate the use
of electric vehicles (EVs), but the latest monitoring report has shown
a smaller effect than we hoped for. The adoption of EVs just doesnt
seem to gain pace. The minister has said that we must look into
existing and new stimulation possibilities for EVs, since she wants
to reach higher adoption levels in line with the goals that were set
internationally five years ago. Right now, we are just falling behind.
Luckily, other countries are not doing much better. However, our
minister wants to be a frontrunner. She asked for a list of concrete
proposals and what they would cost. What I want to ask is if you can
find out what those concrete proposals should be. The minister said
she didnt want to stick to the old-fashioned subsidy packages, but
something a little bit more innovative. To be honest, I have no idea
what that should be, but I am sure you will come up with something.
Next week I have a short meeting with the assistant of the minister,
so it would be great if we could have something to give back to him
then. I believe that is all for now. If you have any questions, do let me
know, you know where to find me. Good luck Sara! I am sure youll do
great on this one.
Sara sits a little discomforted, puzzled almost, in her chair.
Stimulation of EVs? What does that mean? What exactly does he
want me to do? Sara shakes her head. She has no idea what will
make her perform well on this job. This assignment could be a great

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opportunity to show what she is capable of, but why does it have to
be a creative idea? Sara firmly believes she is not good at that at all.
She knows quite a bit about alternative energy sources and that EVs
exist, but how they work exactly or what the problems are She hasnt
a clue.
But Sara is determined to do well on this project. She immediately
gets up and walks to the office of her supervisor. She knocks on his
door and enters. Oh wow, that is fast Sara. How can I help you?
Peter replies. Well, just after you gave this challenging project, I was
wondering if you can send me the monitoring report you mentioned,
and what effects we are trying to reach how exactly do we know if
we succeed in stimulating EVs? Peter sways back in his chair. Hmm.
Good question, Sara, you immediately hit the nail on the head! This
is one of the points that puzzle me in a lot of new policies: when they
are implemented as a result of a political decision, no one is clear
about what goals exactly should be reached with the policy. As if it is
easier to implement that way This makes it very hard to monitor the
effectiveness of that policy. Of course, we do have plans for the effects
we try to reach, but not specifically for the policy measures for EVs
that are in place right now. Let me think about what you should know.
Have a seat by the way.
Sara opens a little notebook that she carries with her and waits.
Okay. First about why we started stimulating EVs: because our
country will need to lower its CO2 emissions and cars are a big
producer of CO2 emissions and particulate matter. The minister
decided that more EVs instead of regular cars could be one of ways
to achieve this. Also, because we must decrease our reliance on
fossil fuels, the government has considered stimulating alternatives
to fossil fuels. I heard that in a few weeks the minister will have an
important meeting with her colleagues from other countries and they
will together form a strategy for the coming years. EVs are one of the

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Then, about when we know that we have achieved our goal: an increase
of EVs is the best way to measure this, I guess. Of course, take into
account the costs of stimulating that here. The minister has been very
clear that we will need to stay within the budget of this year and that the
budget will certainly decrease next year because of the current financial
situation. Oh, and now you ask: the minister said she would favour
options that involve local policy makers, institutions or entrepreneurs. I
am not sure how we could do that, but take it into account if you can.
Does this answer your questions? Ill send you any reports I can find on
this topic by the end of the day, ok? Sara nods. Thank you Peter. This
makes it clearer for me. Im starting my analysis right away. Peter smiles
and Sara speeds back to her own desk. Based on this short conversation,
she makes a simple goal tree on the back of her paper. This may be
useful during the rest of her work.

Making the problem explicit

alternatives. Now, as I said, the adoption of EVs in our country is far too
low, therefore our minister wants concrete measures. At least, thats how
I understood it.

Sara turns the page of her notebook and stares. Now she knows what
she has to achieve and why, but she still has no clue how to do this.
Luckily, Sara remembers a tool that could prove to be useful in situations
like this. At the top of her blank page, Sara writes EV adoption causal
diagram. At the centre she writes number of EVs since Peter said he
considers increasing the number of EVs to be the goal for the policy, with
the ultimate goal to decrease CO2 emissions and become less dependent
on fossil fuels. But lets get to that later.
What influences the number of EVs? Sara ponders, The number of
charging points and the distance to the nearest charging point are
important to owners of EVs, so these factors should be OK to make
sure a region is EV-friendly. We do have to take into account that the
more EVs there are, the more charging points we need. The price and

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the so-called Total Cost of Ownership are, of course, also important,

because if EVs and their maintenance are too expensive, no one will
buy one. I think the coolness of EVs also plays a role in the adoption
of these cars: their image has to be attractive to a large group of
people. I am not sure yet how to incorporate this, but lets just put it
somewhere in the causal diagram.
Now, lets dig a little deeper. Sara opens her browser and searches for
Causes number of EVs. After opening a few websites, she finds some
useful information:
Range Perception: Probably no other single factor has had as
much influence over the history of the electric car as range. The
early EV was great in the cities, but most could not venture too far
out of town where there might be no electricity at all, let alone a
charging station of some sort.
[]
The range perception problem is still with the EV today. Some
people call it Range Anxiety. However, as with most anxieties,
poor perception is part of the problem. [] Today, the Tesla claims
244miles on a charge, though uphill against the wind on a cold
day in the fast lane, for example, you will most likely get less.
Source: http://www.evsroll.com/History_of_electric_car.html,
visited on 28 May 2012
The demonstration trial involves 340 vehicles [] being tested
on everyday journeys by real-life users. This analysis provides
a valuable initial insight into the first three-month adaptation
phase []
Range anxiety: Prior to the trial 100% [] said they would be more
concerned about reaching their destination with an EV than they
would with their normal car. After three months this dropped
significantly, by 35%.

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Making the problem explicit

The drop in range anxiety is in part due to the increased

understanding of vehicle capabilities, driving techniques and
journey planning. Charging data also shows users gained more
confidence in their journey distance over the three months, with
an eight per cent increase in users allowing their batteries to drop
below 50% before plugging in.
Source: Initial Findings from the Ultra-Low Carbon Vehicle
Demonstrator Programme, Technology Strategy Board, http://www.
innovateuk.org/_assets/pdf/press-releases/ulcv_reportaug11.pdf,
visited on 28 May 2012

This is important! Sara notices. She quickly writes down both driving
range of EVs and the perception of that range. Hmm, lets put that
differently: perceived driving range in relation to real range. That
last one can be influenced by the real range, but is also influenced
by the length of time people own an EV, as was shown in the study
in the United Kingdom. But what if we can allow for people to use,
or experience an EV, without having to own one? That would make
it more attractive! Sara had just written EV possession time, but
quickly changes it into EV experience time. This also allows for
people renting EVs, or taking EV-taxis, etcetera, and still gaining the
important experience. Nice!
Other websites mention the rising fossil fuel prices as a main driver
for EV ownership. A higher fossil fuel price will not lead automatically
to a higher number of EVs, though. Sara thinks. It must have to do
with both the fossil fuel price and the electricity price, and with the
fuel efficiency of EVs and regular cars. She starts drawing at the
bottom of the causal diagram, introducing the factors % (EV costs/
km) / (regular car costs/km), electricity price and fuel efficiency of
EVs (kWh/100km) for the EV-part, and fossil fuel price and fuel
efficiency of regular cars (litre/100km) to represent the regular car
costs/km. Sara looks puzzled at the plus and minus signs she has

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to put next to the arrows; This is quite a complex one, I will have
to check these relations again later. Thinking about possibilities to
lower the percentage in % (EV costs/km) / (regular car costs/km),
Sara adds two factors that influence the fossil fuel price. Thefossil
fuel price is influenced by the crude oil price, which we cannot
change, but also by the excise tax on fossil fuels that our government
controls. This might be an opportunity to make fossil fuels less
attractive and EVs more attractive.
As Sara continues to work on her diagram, she slowly starts to lose
pace. Although her understanding of why people arent driving EVs is
expanding, she feels she is missing out on an important part of the
problem field. She has not incorporated CO2 emissions yet, How to do
this? This is not directly related to the number of EVs, but more to the
amount people drive
At that moment, Saras older colleague Walter walks by. Fifty-four
years of age, Walter is an experienced engineer who now works for
the department of Transport as a policy advisor. He is always friendly,
but can be very critical at the same time. Sara, good morning! Tell
me, why do you look so puzzled? Hi Walter. I am fine, but indeed I
am a little puzzled. I made this causal diagram for a new project Peter
has assigned to me. The minister wants to know how to increase
the number of EVs in innovative ways, and we think the goals behind
it are to decrease CO2 and particulate matter emissions, and to
decrease the dependency on fossil fuels. Right now, I am stuck! I need
to incorporate CO2 emissions, but I have to find a way to do that
correctly, and it has a relation with the amount people drive, not with
the number of EVs
Alright, Sara. It does sound complex; let me see what you have been
working on so far. Sara shows Walter her causal diagram and waits
while Walter studies her work carefully.

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making the ProBlem exPlicit

Now you know that I dont know a lot about EVs, Sara. I do know
how the electromagnetic motor works, but I have no idea why people
wouldnt want to buy them. I guess your findings so far make sense. I
think you are on your way. If I could make one suggestion: you could
include a factor that represents the proportion of kms driven by EVs
relative to the total amount of kms driven in a year, and relate all
other factors on fuel use and emissions to that. Sara lightens up.
That is a great idea, Walter! Sara grabs her pen and starts drawing
new factors. That is the solution to linking the EVs to CO2 emissions
in a sensible way. The point is that I also read about the fact that
many EVs are being used as a second car, and if they drive only a
small number of kms, they are not very beneficial. Excellent! Walter
smiles, I have the feeling my single suggestion got you back on track
again. I have to run now, my appointment started five minutes ago.
Good luck Sara! As Walter speeds off to his office, Sara continues to
work on her causal diagram.

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The factor % (EV kms)/(total car kms) is very useful, and Sara directly
links it to the use of fossil fuels and electricity. These factors are also
dependent on the total distance travelled (otherwise there would just
be a ratio), and of course on the efficiency of both EVs and regular
cars, which were already in the causal diagram. If people drive less
kms, or if regular cars become much more efficient, CO2 emissions will
decrease as well.
The day is coming to an end, and Sara adds the final factor to her
causal diagram, at least for now. If the electricity for the EVs is
generated using fossil fuels like coal or oil, we are not making any
progress at all!
The next morning, Sara runs into her supervisor Peter at the coffee
machine. Good morning Sara, how are you? Still starting up on that
project, I presume? Well, to be honest, I may already have something
exciting. Here, let me show you what I have. Sara quickly gets her
notebook and shows Peter her causal diagram.
Together they walk through all steps in Saras line of thought. While
Peter watches, Sara points out places where alternatives could be
applied: To start off old-fashioned, the selling price of an EV can
be influenced with subsidies, but as you said, the minister wants
something more spectacular. Still, we should keep it in mind as a
possibility, perhaps in addition to another action. Then there are the
number of charging points and the average distance to the nearest
charging point. We can influence that quite easily, and it is very
important to EV owners. We can also try to influence the coolness
of EVs: by this I mean the attractiveness of these cars to people.
Wecould get stars to become ambassadors of the EV, or something
like that.
If we then move to the bottom left part of the causal diagram, we
first see the perceived driving range which can be influenced by

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making the ProBlem exPlicit

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EV experience time. This is very interesting; Ill send you the report
in which this is supported. We can influence this by, for example,
stimulating rental EVs, or EV taxis. Then also entrepreneurs are
involved, and I really feel this might have a huge impact on the
success of EVs, although of course I still have to do more research.
Below that we have the economic part of the causal diagram.
Basically, the costs per km will be in favour of the EV or in favour
of the regular car. To steer this in the right direction, our minister
can consider increasing the excise tax on fossil fuels. She can also
support research in the field of fuel efficiency of EVs, but that will be
a more long-term investment, and I think that is also out of reach
for our minister although she might advise this to the Minister of
Innovation.
And finally to the part that is perhaps most important: the emissions.
I forgot to include particulate matter emissions, but the factor
CO2emissions can be broadened to include that as well. There are
two points of application in this part: distance travelled by cars and
% of fossil fuel generated electricity. The first is quite obvious, since
discouraging driving while providing good alternatives, of course
will in the end decrease CO2 emissions. The latter is perhaps not
considered that much, but if we do not do anything about polluting
electricity generation, EVs will not help us in lowering CO2 emissions.
I am going to do some more work on it today to write down these
possible alternatives and to research their effects. I will get back to
you later, when I have some more things to show you. Sara grabs her
coffee, almost cold by now, picks up her notebook, and starts walking
back to her desk. Peter calls her back just in time: Sara, I am excited.
You moved way faster than I expected. Ideas like these are exactly the
creative things we are looking for. Please continue to work like this,
and definitely show me more of those diagrams you are working with.
It makes your line of thought much clearer to me! You are doing a
great job. Keep that up!

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