June 27, 2015

Weekly Technical Report

RETAIL RESEARCH

Nifty
8381.10

Observations:

Perspective
Bullish

Support

Resistance

8329 - 8250

8505 - 8600

200 Day EMA

8204

Weekly Pick
M&M, GVKPIL

[Earlier Indications are in Italics]

Weeks action formed strong bull candle with good volumes which indicates bulls are continuing their momentum in the
short term.
Two weeks back we had indicated that index is heading towards 8200 or higher level which has been attained already. [As
long as index stays above 7950 then chance of testing 8200 is more likely, depending on the momentum of the up move
further upside targets are also possible].
The targets are extended to 8600 8700 level in forth coming weeks; we cant rule out a minor correction before testing
8700 but the best option is index may not slide below 8100 mark before testing 8700.
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 As we discussed earlier index is still in progress of internals of major wave b and we are heading towards 8700 mark in
forthcoming weeks. Major wave a has ended at 7997 and the rise from 7997 to 8490 is minor wave a of major wave
b. Then fall from 8490 to 7940 is minor wave b of major wave b. The progressing rise from 7940 is wave c of major
wave b. So far it has tested the 100% projection level of minor wave a&b Next 161.8% levels is placed at 8750 mark
which is also above 61.8% retracement level of major fall from 9200 to 7940.
The rise from 7997 to 8490 has taken 11 days and the fall from 8490 to 7997 has taken 14 days which is not a faster
retracement on the downside which has provided us an initial clue for bullish stance.
The rise from 7940 to present level has taken 11 days. If the index manages to clear 8490 before Wednesday 1st half then
it validates a faster retracement on the upside which could result in further bullishness in the market.
Cycle degree wave count follows: The high of 9119 is some larger degree wave end. As per our preferred count Cycle
degree wave iii/C has ended at 238.2% projection level of wave i/A & wave ii/B. The cycle degree wave i/A started
from 4531 level and ended at 6229 and wave ii/B started from 6229 and ended at 5118. The dynamic wave iii/C
started from 5118 and ended at 9119 with a couple of extensions. And now index is in progress of cycle degree wave
iv/X down. We have marked 9119 as cycle degree top in Mar 2015 when index was around 8850 and we have been
maintaining major bearish stance from late December 2014.

S&P CNX Nifty Daily

Observation:
Days market action formed an inside candle which could be a trigger for both the sides. A rise above 8423 validates
bullish trigger; likewise a fall below 8329 validates a bearish trigger.
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 Technically, index has validated a breakout of falling channel setup which is bullish stance for the short term.
Index is in progress of retracing the last major falling leg from 9200 to 7940. So far index has retraced 38.2% of the last
fall and the 50% and 61.8% is placed at 8550 - 8675 levels respectively.
Any bearish action could halt above 8100 mark in short term. Once index moves above 8490 then index could head
towards 8700 without much hurdle.
Bullish expectation will be cancelled out if index closes below 8100 mark.

RETAIL RESEARCH

Stock Pick
Scrip
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd

CMP

Recommendation

1299.55

Buy between CMP to 1235

Stoploss
1210

Targets
1410 - 1450

Time
1-2 Months

Observations
The stock is showing positive bias for the short to medium term; the above daily chart of M&M is showing bullish
evidences as per Japanese candle stick, western technicals and Elliot wave perspective.
Two weeks back, a strong bull candle has been witnessed which is an initial sign of positive development after a long
consolidation phase.
The spotted bull candle has validated a breakout of contracting triangle and formed a higher high with faster upward
retracement; apart from this price has exactly turned from 0-2 trendline (Gray Line) and ended the wave e of C; all these
are very significant bullish observations in western technicals and Elliot wave.
In larger picture the stock has completed a three wave decline and it has started or likely to start a bullish impulse wave
towards earlier life time high or above.
Traders can buy the stock between CMP to 1235 with the stoploss of 1210 on closing basis for the targets of 1410 - 1450.
RETAIL RESEARCH

Stock Pick
Scrip

GVK Power & Infra Ltd.

CMP

Recommendation

Stoploss

Targets

9.10

Buy between CMP to 8.30

8.05

10.50 - 12.50 - 14

Time
1-6 Months

Observations
The stock is showing positive bias for the short to medium term; the above daily chart of GVK Power & Infra Ltd. is
showing bullish evidences as per Japanese candle stick, western technicals and Elliot wave perspective.
Strong bull candle has been witnessed on both daily and weekly charts which is the initial bullish development.
The spotted strong bull candle has validated a breakout of falling wedge and formed higher high with faster upward
retracement; apart from this price has exactly turned from lower trendline i.e. end of wave e of C; all these are very
significant bullish observations in western technicals and Elliot wave.
In the larger picture the stock has completed a Zigzag pattern with truncated wave C and it has started a bullish
impulse/three wave upward retracement rise towards key retracement level of 23.6%, 38.2% & 50% of last major fall from
18.25 to 7.95.
Traders buy the stock between CMP to 8.30 with the stoploss of 8.05 on closing basis for the targets of 10.50 - 12.50 - 14.
RETAIL RESEARCH

*For 2 Targets: when price attains the 1st target, book partial (50%) profit and revise your stop loss on balance shares to cost.
nd

*For 3 Targets: when price attains the 1st target, book partial (30%) profit and revise your stop loss on balance shares to cost and when 2
st
target attains book another partial profit (30%) then revise the stop loss to 1 target price.
* Dont try this trade recommendation in options segment.
st

*If interested in Futures then trade only up to 1 target with above mentioned cash/spot levels.

Note: Once the market opens for trade, the analyst will review it and decide to give the call through an internal mail/SMS at the same or different levels of entry, target and stop loss or not give
the call at all or give a call in Futures/call/put. Clients could get in touch with the analyst through their designated dealers to check about this.

Technical Research Analyst: Gajendra Prabu (gajendra.prabu@hdfcsec.com)

RETAIL RESEARCH Tel: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Corporate Office
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East),
Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: hdfcsecretailresearch@hdfcsec.com
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