promoting democratic accountability in Nigeria

REPORT

JULY 2015
1

ACRONYMS

APC All Progressives Congress

AU African Union
CCB Code of Conduct Bureau
CDD Centre for Democracy and Development
EFCC Economic and Financial Crimes Commission
EU European Union
GEJ Goodluck Ebele Jonathan
ICPC Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission
MCCC Military Command and Control Centre
MNJTF Multi-National Joint Task Force
PMB President Muhammadu Buhari
PTFP Presidential Task Force on Power
TAM Turn Around Maintenance
USA United States of America

TABLE OF CONTENT
Contents
ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................................................. 2
TABLE OF CONTENT ................................................................................................................................. 3
I.

INTRODUCTION ....................................................................... ! .

II.

METHODOLOGY ....................................................................... ! .

III.

SNAP-SHOT OF 60 DAY ACCOMPLISHMENTS ........................ ! .

IV.

ANALYSIS OF PERFORMANCE ............................................... ! .

Security ....................................................................................... ! .
Corruption ................................................................................... ! .
Infrastructure .............................................................................. ! .
Oil and Gas .................................................................................. ! .
V.

UNEVEN ACHIEVEMENTS ......................................................... ! .

VI.

ABOUT BUHARIMETER ......................................................... ! .

I.

INTRODUCTION

The July 2015 report is a second of many report cards on the performance of President
Muhammadu Buhari (PMB) and his party, All Progressives Congress (APC), on the delivery of
campaigns promises made in the run-up to the 2015 general elections. Most of these promises
are documented in the APC Manifesto: My Covenant with Nigerians; newspaper reports and
videos clips on the campaign trail. The Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD)
developed the Buharimeter as a tool for rating the performance of the government, based on
the tracked campaign promises.
Within the reporting period, CDD updated the campaign promises on the tracking platform,
which resulted in an increase in the number of promises, from 172 to 222. A feature has also
been uploaded to the platform urging citizens to submit missing promises with verifiable
evidence.
60 days into the PMB/APC led-government, progress on the delivery of campaign promises
have largely been made in four sectors, including security; corruption; oil and gas; and
infrastructure (power), with the remaining promises unrated. A total of 6 Promises are
ONGOING. They represent a 75 percent increase from the first 30 day report card, with 216
NOT RATED. No promise is either ACHIEVED or NOT ACHIEVED as it was the case in the first
month (June).

II.

METHODOLOGY

The monitoring of PMBs tracked campaign promises was conducted by CDD. Data were
collated through the daily monitoring of print and electronic media. An expert analysis on
sectorial issues were undertaken; and citizens views, as expressed in the media, were
systematically rated, before making judgment calls on the status of the implementation of
specific promises. Weekly in-house reports were also prepared for the purpose of trend
monitoring. These reports are the building blocks for the monthly reports, for which a database
was created.

III.

SNAPSHOT OF 60 DAY ACCOMPLISHMENTS

The progress rating bar chart below provides a snapshot of governments accomplishments in
the first 60 days in office. At a glance, we can see that, out of the tracked 222 campaign
promises, the government made progress towards the achievement of 6 of them, which
4

suggests that the government is yet to make noticeable steps towards the achievement of the
other 216 campaign promises.
Progress Rating
Not Rated

216

Ongoing

Not Achieved

Achieved

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

Corruption (13)
Not 0
Achieved

Ongoing

Corruption
(13)

Not Rated

12
0

10

Security (22)

20

Not 0
Achieved

Ongoing

Security (22)

Not Rated

19
0

10

20

Infrastructure (18)
20
15
10
5
0

17

Oil&Gas (11)
15
1

10

10
0

Infrastructur
e (18)

Oil & Gas (11)

IV.

ANALYSIS OF PERFORMANCE

Security
In the period under review, the government made noticeable efforts to mitigate the wave of
attacks by the Boko Haram (BH) insurgents in North-East Nigeria. PMB started-off by
announcing the relocation of the Military Command and Control Centre (MCCC) from Abuja to
Borno State the epicentre of the Boko Haram insurgency1. This was followed by the reopening
of discussions with member States of the Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF) and the
international communities. PMB visited Niger, Chad, Cameroon, Benin, Germany (G7 summit),
Addis Ababa (AU meeting), the United States of
Timeline (May 29 31 July 2015)
America (USA), amongst others, to hold talk with
May 29 Boko Haram invaded Maiduguri, Borno
African and world leaders to fashion out ways to
May 30 Nigeria military repelled overnight attack in
collaboratively end the BH insurgency.
Maiduguri, Borno
The Buharimeter shows that PMB is making
progress on his promises on National Security and
Defence, compared to other sectors.
Available evidence shows renewed commitment
amongst leaders of the Lake Chad Basin
Commission, Benin and the Western countries; and
coherence in military strategies to wage war against
the transnational terrorists group. This renewed
approach is actually yielding fruit. For instance,
Chad, Niger, Cameroon and Nigeria ratified an
agreement that allows their military forces to
pursue Boko Haram militants across their respective
borders. Cameroon further ratified the cross-border
military engagement and pledged additional 2,450
troops to fight Boko Haram.

May 31 Boko Haram attacked Fika and Ngalda town,

Yobe&GamboruNgala Market, Borno
June 2 Suicide bomb attack in Maiduguri, Borno
June 3 Buhari visits Niger
June 4 Buhari visits Chad
June 4 Nigeria military, civilian foiled attack in Maiduguri,
Borno
June 7 Buhari leaves for G7 meeting in Germany
June 8 Nigeria military moves command centre to
Maiduguri
June 20 Soldiers exchanged fire with suspected Boko
Haram members in Kaduna
June 28 Suicide bomb explosion in Chadian Capital
July 7 Bomb Blast in Zaria
July 8 Nigerian troop arrests mastermind of aria bombing
July 11 Military repel attack in Yobe
July 13 Boko Haram attacks Mainok Town in Borno
July 15 Boko Haram killed 45 villagers in a bid to seize
highway to Borno
July 20 Buhari visits USA
July 27 29 killed in Boko Haram attack in Borno village
July 28 Nigerian Army Repel Boko Haram in Buratai,
Borno
July 28 Nigerian Army rescues 30 people in Dikwa
July 29 Buhari visits Cameroon
July 30 Army rescues 59 Borno villagers from Sambisa
forest

This renewed regional cooperation and the MNJTF

platform have foiled some Boko Haram attacks2. The Nigerian Military also rescued some
kidnapped persons from the den of the insurgents3. However, within the last 2 months, there
1

See Buharimeter monthly fact sheet June 2015

Amidst reports on the heinous attacks by Boko Haram, there are news reports on the recent counter-attacks by
the Nigeria military to repel the insurgents attacks in the Northern Nigeria. For example, Daily Trust (July 11, 2015)
and ThisDay (July 15, 2015) reported that a renewed onslaught on Yobe State by suspected Boko Haram members
was repelled by the Nigeria military. More so, Punch, Daily Independent and Channels TV (all of July 28, 2015)
reported a statement from the Acting Director of the Army Public Relations saying that the military foiled two
attempts by suspected Boko Haram insurgents to attack Buratai, a town in Borno State.
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have been over 25 successful attacks and bomb explosions which claimed a death toll of over
700 people and caused the destruction of properties worth millions of naira.
Corruption
Under the corruption heading, Buharimeter rated only one (1) of the thirteen (13) tracked
promises as ongoing. The President and the Vice President have declared their assets and
liabilities with the Code of Conduct Bureau (CCB). However, no progress was made in the
promise to publicly declare assets and encourage appointees to publicly declare their assets.
Little has been broached since the statement from the Presidency declaring that assets would
be publicly released after verification by the CCB. Nonetheless, none of his appointees has
publicly declared their assets.
An observable trend in the period under review is the efforts made by the PMB administration
to address the issue of corruption, even though these efforts cannot be tied to any of the listed
promises. For instance, under the auspices of a corruption probe4, efforts were largely
targeted at dismantling the setup that had previously engendered financial maladministration,
and at recovering looted funds. This development cannot be tied to PMBs promise to work
with the National Assembly to strengthen the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission
(EFCC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC),
and make them particularly independent financially, with robust prosecutorial capacity while
guaranteeing security of tenure of offices. This however requires an amendment of the laws
establishing the anti-graft agencies; and no noticeable move has been made to this effect.
A lot of the actions were tone setting in nature; notable is the significant involvement of some
foreign states in the overall anticorruption strategy. The United States has pledged that it shall
cooperate with the PMB administration in locating and retrieving laundered monies.5 Equally
tone setting is EFCC summoning of Zainab YarAdua, daughter of former President Umaru
YarAdua; and wife of Senate President, Mrs. Toyin Saraki, for questioning over alleged financial
corruption, lending credence to a popular saying attributed to PMB that there are no sacred
cows.6

It was reported in Daily Trust and Premium Times of July 29, 2015 that the Nigerian Army rescued 30 people from
terrorists in Dikwa. Likewise, the Guardian of July 31 reported that the Nigerian Army rescued 59 Borno villagers
from Sambisa forest.
4
Ibanga Isine (2015), Buhari will probe Jonathans govt only; Obasanjos, Others Presidency, Premium Times, July
23 [Accessed: July 30 at http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/187120-buhari-will-probe-jonathansgovt-only-not-obasanjos-others-presidency.html]
5
US to Buhari: We will help you recover stolen funds, Daily Trust, July 21, 2015 [Accessed: July 24 at
http://www.dailytrust.com.ng/daily/index.php/news-menu/news/60471-us-to-buhari-we-ll-help-you-recoverstolen-funds]
6
George Agba (2015) No Sacred Cows in Fight Against Corruption, Leadership, July 22 [Accessed: July 25 at
http://leadership.ng/news/448669/no-sacred-cows-in-fight-against-corruption-buhari]

Infrastructure
Promises categorised under infrastructures include power (electricity) and transportation. On
power, there is a noticeable improvement in power supply. Since inauguration, electricity
generation and supply across the country has continued to improve. Few months to the end of
the Goodluck Jonathans administration, Nigeria witnessed a decline in her power output, from
a peak of 4,500MW on 3 April, to 2,800MW on 30 March; and to as low as 1,327MW in May,
20157. On 29 July 2015, the management of Transmission Company of Nigeria announced that
the national grid transmission has recorded an increase from 4,000MW in early July to
4,662MW as at the time of reporting8.
There is no available evidence on steps taken to achieve other tracked promises. They include
undertaking an urgent power audit of Nigerias energy needs; restoring the production of
national development plans to promote investment in key national and state infrastructure
projects; ensuring that Nigeria meets all its power needs within the next ten years, amongst
others. We are yet to see any actionable steps on promises with regard to transportation.
Oil and Gas
In a bid to address the perennial problems of fuel scarcity andsubsidy scamin the oil and gas
sector, PMB promised to revive and activate the minimally functioning refineries to optimal
capacity. After the Turn Around Maintenance (TAM) of all the four refineries in Port Harcourt,
Warri and Kaduna, preliminary operations have resumed. Within the reporting period, reports
indicate that refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna are projected to work at 60
percent9, 80 percent10 and 90 percent11installed capacity respectively.
The government is yet to take any concrete steps towards the implementation of its campaign
promises to pass the Petroleum Industry Bill; establish an independent Oil and Gas Regulatory
Authority; introduce a strong local content legislation; and create a domestic supply chain,
amongst others.

Nigerias power generation at all-time low crashed to 1,327MW, Premium Times, May 22, 2015 [Accessed: 1
August 2015 at http://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/183496-nigerias-power-generation-at-all-timelow-crashes-to-1327mw.html].
8
John O. (2015), Power Transmission peaks 4,662MW, The Nation, July 30 [Accessed: 30 July at
http://thenationonlineng.net/power-transmission-peaks-at-4662mw/]
9
Oladunjoye P. (2015), Port Harcourt, Warri Refineries Commences Preliminary Operations, Daily Independent, July
30 [Accessed: July 30 at http://dailyindependentnig.com/2015/07/port-harcourt-warri-refineries-commencepreliminary-production/]
10
Ibid
11
Asa Msue (2015) Kaduna refineries to hit 90 percent installed Capacity, National Mirror, August 1[Accessed:
August 1 at http://nationalmirroronline.net/new/kaduna-refinery-to-hit-90-percent-of-installed-capacity-md/]

V.

UNEVEN ACHIEVEMENT

Water&Sanitation
Niger Delta
Environment
PWD
Women&Youth
ICT
Sport&Culture
Health
Education

Not rate

Oil&Gas

Ongoing

Infrastructure

Achieved

Agriculture
Not Achieved

Employment
Social Safety Net
Housing
Industrialisation
Foreign Policy
Security
Politics&Gov.
Corruption
0

VI.

10

15

20

25

30

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ABOUT BUHARIMETER

Buharimeter (www.buhaimeter.ng) is a monitoring tool that enables Nigerians and panNigerians around the globe to keep tab on the implementation of the campaign promises of
President Muhammad Buhari. It is an independent, unbiased and non-political monitoring
platform and provides alternative opinion about government policy, where necessary. By
analysing data gathered through tracking of media reports, policy analysis, opinion polling and
rating government performance, we hope to empower Nigerians to take an active role in
making the APC-led government live up to its campaign promises. We want our electoral
democracy to deliver development to all and sundry by promoting democratic accountability.
Our progress rating is not based on mere policy pronouncement by the government, but
actionable steps taken to achieve a promise.
9