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MYANMARS
AUTOMOTIVE LUBRICANT MARKET
September 2014
Solidiance has produced this white paper for information purposes only. While every effort has been made
to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained herein, Solidiance bears no responsibility for
any possible errors and omissions. All information, views, and advice are given in good faith but without
any legal responsibility; the information contained should not be regarded as a substitute for legal and/or
commercial advice. Copyright restrictions (including those of third parties) are to be observed.
Content
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This white paper focuses on the lubricant market in Myanmars
automotive sector to deep dive in the industry by looking at
consumption level, current and future trends, value chain structure,
product segmentation and competition intensity. During the course
of the research, a number of vehicle types e.g. passenger cars,
commercial vehicles and two wheelers have been observed to
analyze its lubricant consumption patterns.
The automotive lubricant market in Myanmar has recorded
significant changes within the last 3 years, with the emergence of a
mid-end and a nascent higher-end segments. Main drivers for these
changes are the end of international sanctions against Myanmar
and regulatory change in car importation which positively affected
car imports, boosting its circulation number by 8% in the last 3
years. The increase in purchasing power and reception of loans
from international institutions to modernize infrastructure have
also positively impacted two wheelers and commercial vehicles
sales, raising the lubricant consumption -- especially engine oil.
The market share of low-grade lubricant has now shrunk to 60%
from 90% before 2010, while at the same time medium-grade and
high-grade lubes account for 35% and 5%, respectively.
Although there are more products available, customers knowledge
about lubricants and its benefits for their engine remain limited.
Moreover, price-sensitive Myanmar customers are often lured by
promotion and sales incentives, making the current competition
fiercer among more than 200 brands including local, Asian and
International brands.
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Country Overview
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Economy
Population
Road infrastructure
GDP
H as B ee n S teadi ly In creasin g F o r T he
Past F ive Y ears A n d I S f o recasted T o
G r o w at 6.7% In 2014
Myanmars Nominal GDP (in US$ Billion) and GDP Growth (2007-2014)
GDP growth averages 5.46% per year in 7 years
52.6
Billion USD
2012 Gross Domestic
70
6.7
6.5
60
6.5%
50
6.3
5.5
5.1
5.3
5.5
5
40
3.6
66.0
30
45.4
20
5.1%
10
31.4
51.4
52.6
58.9
35.2
20.2
2007
2008
2009
2010
GDP
2011
2012
2013e
2014e
Growth
The countrys economy expanded to an estimated 6.3% in financial year April 2012/March 2013
compared to an average of 5% in previous 5 years. The accelerating GDP growth reflects business
optimism, buoyed by the governments policy to liberalize the economy since 2011 and prospects
for further reform. Increasing industrial output and services had offset a modest growth in
agriculture due to floods in 2012/2013.
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61
60
59
61.1
58
59.8
60.4
59.1
57
58.4
56
57.5
55
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Population
Source: ADB, UN, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Myanmar
Myanmars population had tripled in a span of 50 years from just 21 million people
in 1960 to 61.1 million people in 2012. It ranked 24th among the worlds most
populous countries. The country covers an area of 676,578 square kilometer,
making it the second largest country in Southeast Asia and the worlds 40th
largest by size. Myanmar is home to 135 ethnic groups with main ethnicities are
Kachin, Kayah, Kayin, Chin, Banmar, Mon, Rakhine and Shan.
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Mandalay
Population approximately 1 mn
yangon
Yangon
City comparison between Myanmar and Thailand shows a much higher population density in Thailand cities.
For a comparable population size (61 Mn vs. 65Mn), Myanmar inhabitants are more spread in rural areas.
Yangon
Mandalay
Myanmars 10
Most Densely
Populated
Regions, 000
Inhabitants
(2011)
998
Mawlamyine
482
11,574
Nakhon Ratchasima
1,322
Naypyitaw
2,829
Khon Kaen
1,896
Ubon Ratchathani
1,878
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1,749
Buriram
1,659
Udon Thani
1,636
Chiang Mai
1,605
Bago
266
Pthein
258
Monywa
199
Meiktila
194
Sittwe
194
Sisaket
1,546
Mergul
190
Songkhla
1,479
4,889
1,500
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Total Country
Population: 61Mn
3,000
4,500
6,000
Thailands 10
Most Densely
Populated States
/ Regions, 000
Inhabitants
(2011)
Total Country
Population: 61Mn
160
140
148,690 Km
120
100
456
80
60
People/Km.
40
Population/road length
ratio as of 2012
20
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Key barriers
No clear lines of responsibilities: there are many ministries involved i.e.. Ministry of Transport,
Vehicles/ Km.
Ministry of Construction, Ministry for Progress of Boarder Areas and National Races and
Development Affairs.
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ratio as of 2012
Budget constraint: Remote areas with typically mountainous terrain and sparsely population
make construction costs remain high for Myanmar.
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79% vs 21%
Paved
roads
21%
Note: Paved roads include concrete and asphalt roads. Myanmar is made
up of 135 national ethnicities, of which the main national ethnicities are
Unpaved roads
79%
Source: ADB, Ministry of Construction and Solidiance
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Transportation
in Myanmar cities
Mandalay
Yangon
Mawlamyine
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MYANMARS Automotive
Market Overview
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Regulatory
R E F O R M S H AV E A LLOW E D E A C H
M YA NM A R C I T I Z E N T O IMP O R T 1
PA S S E N G E R C A R S IN C E 2012
Before 1998
1998-2010
Imported cars were only available for government authorities, NGOs, and foreign embassies in Myanmar
Imports of commercial vehicle were strictly controlled. Imports for commercial purpose were not allowed. For
example, a mining company that planned to import a truck for carrying out business, had to submit a request letter
and sought approval from Ministry of Mining and Directorate of Trade.
Imports for commercial purpose were allowed for: Trucks over 3 tons, passenger buses with more than 15 seats,
heavy equipment.
The Old Car Substitution Program allowed application of permits for importing cars to replace older cars which
were 20-40 years old, for newer models that were manufactured after 1995.
Source: solidiance interview & analysis, Myanmar Times, Myanmar Ministry of Transport
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Locally
produced
cars , 8%
Locally
produced
cars, 54%
Imported
cars, 92%
Export
Sales, 46%
Almost all cars sold in Myanmar are imported (mostly from Japan), only 8% are locally produced, so import laws have a very
strong impact on car sales in the country. Market dynamics are very different in Thailand where most of cars sold are locally
produced, and a great share of local production is exported overseas.
3,838,206 KM
318,397
3,302,692
117,842
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MYANMARs
15%
10%
5%
65%
2%
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2%
Others
1%
IMPORTED
10%
1%
1%
20%
SUv/MPv
92%
45%
Sedan
25%
Hatchback
Commercial vehicles including light truck, heavy truck, pick-up
Passenger buses
Others including tractors, trawlergyi, etc
.
159,457
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US
5%
China
5%
Other
countries
10%
Nissan
10%
Suzuki
5%
Others
5%
Toyota
80%
Japan
80%
30.6 US cars
Myanmars Price of Imported Cars
by Country of Origin
12.2 Japanese cars
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10
20
30
40
regulatory
REFORMS AND EASING IMPORT
RESTRICTIONS WHICH CREATE
MORE DRIVERS ARE THE KEY
TO GROWTH OF MYANMAR
AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
Growth Drivers
A cut on taxes for automobile, gasoline, diesel oil, auto spare parts
and accessories:
Cars with smaller engines and manufactured after 2007 enjoy the most
from recent tax cut; Taxes on gasoline and diesel oil have been reduced
to 10% from 170% and 90% respectively.
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Growth Barriers
Source: Soldiance Research and Analysis, Irrawaddy, Eleven Myanmar, Bangkok Post
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Automotive Lubricant
Products in Myanmar
Usage behavior
Purchasing behavior
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TYPES OF AUTOMOTIVE
L U B R I C A N T S AVA I L A B L E I N M YA N M A R
Automotive
Lubricants
Mineral
Synthetic
Fully
Synthetic
Multi - grade
Mono - grade
Fully Synthetic
Semi - synthetic
Multi grade
Mono grade
API
SN or SN/CF
SN or SM/CF
SG or SL/CF or SM/CF
SF or SC/CC
SAE
5W30 / 5W40
10W30 / 10W40
15W40 / 20W50
40 or 50
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Semi synthetic
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Where to go
When to change
Retail shop
Drum size
200 Litres pack
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Consequently,
Importer/
Distributor
Wholesaler
Car workshop/
Service center
Lubricant
Retail shop
End-user
Importer/
Distributor
Wholesaler
(outside Yangon)
Fleet Operator
Business
End-user
~100,000 vehicles
Source: Solidiance interviews & analysis
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MOST
STAKEHOLDERS
M A K E D E C I S I ON T O P U R C H A S E B A S E D
ON P R I C E A N D I N C E N T I V E S R AT H E R
T H A N LOO K I N G AT B R A N D A N D
QUALITY
Stakeholder
Estimated
number of players
Price
Brand
Quality
Decision maker :
Wholesalers deal with many brands. They have the
power to set prices for retailers
Wholesalers are mainly located outside Yangon
1.
2.
3.
Profit margin
Promotion
Brand
1000+
Decision maker :
Retailers can influence end-users choice of brands.
Usually, retailers carry many brands and push certain
brands that give them high profit margin
Retailers also provide lube-changing service to
end-user
1.
2.
3.
Profit margin
Promotion
Brand
300+
Decision maker :
Car workshops including car-care services carry a
few well-known brands and prescribe the brands to
end-users
1.
2.
3.
Brand
Quality
Price
User :
Most end-users are sensitive to prices and promotions.
Only a few car owners choose their own brands of
lubes. These customers usually own new car models
or luxury cars
1.
2.
3.
Price
Promotion
Brand
User :
Bus & Truck operators buy products directly from
suppliers while Taxi operators let the drivers choose
the products themselves
1.
2.
3.
Price
Quality
Brand
100+
Influencer :
Importers work closely with foreign suppliers in terms
of setting up marketing strategies and distributions
Wholesaler
100+
Retail shop
Car workshop/
Service center
End-user
Fleet Operator
Purchase criteria
1.
2.
3.
Importer/ Distributor
B2C
B2B
100+
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10
Business Brochure
Myanmars Automotive
Lubricants Market
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automotive
5%
Automotive
30%
Industrial
65%
~ 52 million Litres
Automotive lubricant includes motorcycles ,
passenger cars, and commercial vehicles
Marine
Source: Official Customs data, Solidiance interviews & analysis
Myanmar imported 78.8 million litres of lubricant in 2012 of which more than half was
consumed by automotive sector.
Importers / distributors also estimate that lubricant consumption for automotive is higher
than that for the industrial segment due to surging imports of car and motorcycle in recent
years. The industrial lubricants come only from a limited number of machines used in large
manufacturing plants and mining business.
Marine lubricants represent a small share of Myanmars lubricant market because most
marine operators change lubricants in Singapore port
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M YA NM A R s A U T O M O T I V E L U B R I C A N T S
M A R K E T V OL U M E WA S E S T IM AT E D T O R E A C H
O V E R 60 M ILL I ON L I T R E S IN 2013
Automotive lubricant market size volume from 2009-2013, CAGR +18%
70
61
60
52
42
50
40
30
36
31
20
10
0
Note: Historical data is based on lubricant official import volumes and adjusted with vehicles in circulation
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013e
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5%
20%
45%
35%
5%
3% 2%
Engine oil
Gear oil
10%
Coolant
Motorcycle
Passenger cars
Source: Solidiance interviews & analysis
75%
Brake oil
Grease
Others
Market segment:
Buses & trucks in the B2B business are the biggest consumers of lubricants because each vehicle needs large amount of lube on a regular basis.
Although motorcycles account for 80% of vehicles that operate in Myanmars roads, motorcycles lubricant consumption only accounts for 35%
of the total market as it only needs small amount of lube.
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Past segmentation
Current segmentation
Before 2010s
After 2010s
High-end
(~5-10%)
Low-end
(~90%)
High-end
(5%)
+
Mid-end
(~35%)
Low-end
(~60%)
My service center is focusing on highend customer who can afford the premium
products from global brands. This type of
customer is a niche market where majority of
end-users particularly motorcycle still prefer
to use the low priced product.
- Managing Director, a car service center
Global, Middle East, and Asian brands now pay more attention on the synthetic types
- with local and Asian brands having been dominating this segment for decades. This
segment is mostly for motorcycle market.
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EU Brands
Asian Brands
UAE :
Thailand :
Japan:
Malaysia:
Korea:
Singapore:
Malaysia:
Indonesia
Ministry of Commerce have registered 209 of both international and local house brands - all of which are imported products. For local
brands, Myanmar companies imports lubricants in bulk from overseas to be later repackaged and re-branded under their own name,
generally categorized as low-end lubes. It is estimated that around 50+ brands are currently active and have on-going marketing activities
in the market.
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12%
21%
Falcon
10%
brands
PTT
Other
brands
Tip
ic
ta
Toyo
sm
Cal
tex
4%
5%
6%
4%
Kixx
El
llio
3%
8%
To
Sta
2%
2%
l
ta
To sa
Na
Co
12%
Trane
6%
5%
Market share:
Falcon is the leader in overall market, thanks to its strong presence in motorcycles and commercial
cars. This brand is a household name especially outside Yangon. Trane is trailing second and has
been strong in the passenger cars market for decades; however it is starting to lose share to other
players due to fierce competition. PTT followed after those two, yet viewed as the most aggressive
player and is expected to surpass Trane in the future.
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conclusion
future O P P O R T U N I T I E S A N D T R E N D S
Competition will remain strong across all segments, but increasing purchasing power
and imports of newer cars would foster further growth for the medium and high-grade
lubes. Low-end brands will continue to dominate the market as consumers are expected
to remain price-conscious for the coming years. However, it will likely lose share in the
passenger cars segment.
International and Asian brands which target medium to high-end car lubricants are
entering the market, creating fiercer competition in the segments. They will be forced
to promote their brand image, making them visible to compete in this medium to highend lubes market. As the competition increases, international brands are now seeking
partnerships with service centers and authorized dealers to exclusively distribute their
brands. Moreover, given that the brand awareness remains low, lubricant manufacturers
will push their distributors to offer more promotions and incentives to increase the
penetration and market share.
Yangon and Mandalay will remain the distribution lubricant hubs for the medium term,
while relaxing imports regulation and the increase in purchasing power will continue to
boost the number of vehicles and hence raises the demand for lubricants.
Video
Mickael Feige, our Associate Partner, shares a quick view on how the Automotive
Lubricant sector in Myanmar has been significantly changing over the last few years,
and what strategy is needed to survive in the market. Watch the video below.
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About us
What We Do
Soldiance is a corporate strategy consulting firm with focus on
Asia Pacific. We advise CEOs on make-or-break deals, define
new business models and accelerate Asia growth.
Through
Additional Details
Solidiance has offices in China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia,
Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, UAE and Vietnam.
We are fast expanding and always on the lookout for exceptional
people.
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authors
MICKAEL FEIGE - ASSOCIATE PARTNER
Mickael Feige is an Associate Partner based in Thailand. Mickael has more than 10 years of professional
experience. He manages large projects for Fortune 500 in various sectors such as automotive, chemicals,
construction, energy, heavy industries and healthcare. His expertise lies mostly in market entry, growth
strategy, industry and competitive benchmarking, and commercial problems diagnostics. Mickael speaks
French and conversational Japanese. He holds a Masters Degree from a joint program between Lyon
Political Science Institute and Senshu University. He holds an MBA from INSEAD.
MIE KO - ANALYST
Mie Ko is an Analyst based in our Myanmar office. Mie Ko worked on several projects for Solidiance in
Myanmar where she supported feasibility studies and investment projects for Fortune 500 companies.
Prior to joining our team, she worked at the Finance Department of a large hospitality group in Yangon. She
obtained her Bachelors degree of Computer Studies from the University of Computer Studies Mandalay.
Mie Ko holds an MBA with specialization in Strategic International Marketing from the Asian Institute of
Technology.
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