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Original Title: Analytical Method Assignment 01 Dinuka Lakshan CSCT 2013383

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l Methods

Assignment 01

Dinuka Lakshan

Denipitiya CSCT

2013383

[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

Acknowledgement

First of all I would like to thank Mr.Isuru Withanage the lecturer of

Unit: ANM003

Analytical Methods. Because he guide me to do this assignment properly.

I should thank the management of CSCT campus for organizing HND

in Quantity Surveying for us to improve our knowledge and the environment

facilitated with resources such as computer lab, library and other required

facilities to do our work without any problems.

I would thank Prof. Chitra Wedikkara, with great pleasure that

everything she has done for us, for our future.

Then I would like to specially thank for my parents for being by the

side of me in my all difficulties, encourage me to achieve my target.

[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

Table of Contents

Acknowledgement...................................................................................................... 2

Introduction................................................................................................................ 4

Task 01....................................................................................................................... 5

Task 02..................................................................................................................... 10

Task 03..................................................................................................................... 13

Task 04..................................................................................................................... 19

Task 05..................................................................................................................... 23

Conclusion................................................................................................................ 27

References................................................................................................................ 28

[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

Introduction

This assignment is about Analyze and solve problems using statistics and

probability. Statistics is a type of analysis involving the use of quantified

models, representations and summaries for given set of empirical data or

real world observation.

As a person it is needed to have some sort of knowledge of statistics. Even if

we are sellers, doctors, accountants, journalist we should have a somewhat

knowledge about the statistics.

Statistics as a subjects, it can be applied to every fields. It helps to set out

the final result of a data collection. Data representation of statics can be

divided in to 2 main parts, called diagrammatic & graphical representation of

Data.

Task

01

Define

Statistics and explain why and how it is useful in various fields. (P8)

Definition of statistics

The modern world is based on calculations more than anything else.

Calculations of money, calculation of wages, calculation of taxes and all

these calculations need to be assimilated, and utilized in making more

calculations. Thus, a proper system of data usage involves collecting all the

data and organizing it properly. Moreover, not everyone will be able to

understand data in the form it is organized, which, in turn, requires proper

interpretation of data. In fact, it is just the tip of the iceberg. Over the years,

the importance of statistics has risen dramatically. Today, statistics is used in

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[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

almost all the fields. In the following lines, we have given a note on the

significance of statistics in the different fields. Statistics plays a vital role in

every fields of human activity. Statistics has important role in determining

the existing position of per capita income, unemployment, population growth

rate, housing, schooling medical facilities etcin a country. Now statistics

holds a central position in almost every field like Industry, Commerce, Trade,

Physics, Chemistry, Economics, Mathematics, Biology, Botany, Psychology,

Astronomy etc, so application of statistics is very wide. Now we discuss

some important fields in which statistics is commonly applied

collection, analysis, interpretation or explanation, and presentation of data,

while others consider it a branch of mathematics concerned with collecting

and interpreting data. Because of its empirical roots and its focus on

applications, statistics is usually considered a distinct mathematical science

rather than a branch of mathematics.

Much of statistics is non-mathematical: ensuring that data collection is

undertaken in a way that produces valid conclusions; coding and archiving

data so that information is retained and made useful for international

comparisons of official statistics; reporting of results and summarized data

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[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

(tables and graphs) in ways comprehensible to those who must use them;

implementing procedures that ensure the privacy of census information.

Statisticians improve data quality by developing specific experiment

designs and survey samples. Statistics itself also provides tools for prediction

and forecasting the use of data and statistical models. Statistics is applicable

to a wide variety of academic disciplines, including natural and social

sciences, government, and business. Statistical consultants can help

organizations and companies that don't have in-house expertise relevant to

their particular questions.

Statistical methods can summarize or describe a collection of data. This is

called descriptive statistics. This is particularly useful in communicating the

results of experiments and research. In addition, data patterns may

be modeled in a way that accounts for randomness and uncertainty in the

observations.

Significance of Statistics

"Significance level" is a misleading term that many researchers do not fully

understand. This article may help you understand the concept of statistical

significance and the meaning of the numbers produced by The Survey

System.

This article is presented in two parts. The first part simplifies the concept of

statistical significance as much as possible; so that non-technical readers can

use the concept to help make decisions based on their data. The second part

provides more technical readers with a fuller discussion of the exact meaning

of statistical significance numbers.

In normal English, "significant" means important, while in

Statistics "significant" means probably true (not due to chance). A research

finding may be true without being important. When statisticians say a result

is "highly significant" they mean it is very probably true. They do not

(necessarily) mean it is highly important.

Take a look at the table below. The chi (pronounced kie like pie) squares at

the bottom of the table show two rows of numbers. The top row numbers of

0.07 and 24.4 are the chi square statistics themselves. The meaning of these

statistics may be ignored for the purposes of this article. The second row

contains values .795 and .001. These are the significance levels and are

explained following the table.

Significance levels show you how likely a result is due to chance. The most

common level, used to mean something is good enough to be believed, is .

6

[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

95. This means that the finding has a 95% chance of being true. However,

this value is also used in a misleading way. No statistical package will show

you "95%" or ".95" to indicate this level.

Instead it will show you ".05," meaning that the finding has a five percent

(.05) chance of not being true, which is the converse of a 95% chance of

being true. To find the significance level, subtract the number shown from

one. For example, a value of ".01" means that there is a 99% (1-.01=.99)

chance of it being true. In this table, there is probably no difference in

purchases of gasoline X by people in the city center and the suburbs,

because the probability is .795 (i.e., there is only a 20.5% chance that the

difference is true). In contrast the high significance level for type of vehicle

(.001 or 99.9%) indicates there is almost certainly a true difference in

purchases of Brand X by owners of different vehicles in the population from

which the sample was drawn.

The Field Of Economics

Economics is the social science that analyzes the production, distribution,

and consumption of goods and services. The term economics comes from

the Ancient Greek (oikonomia, "management of a household,

administration") from (oikos, "house") + (nomos, "custom" or

"law"), hence "rules of the house(hold)". Political economy was the earlier

name for the subject, but economists in the late 19th century suggested

"economics" as a shorter term for "economic science" that also avoided a

narrow political-interest connotation and as similar in form to "mathematics",

"ethics", and so forth.

A focus of the subject is how economic agents behave or interact and

how economies work. Consistent with this, a primary textbook distinction is

between microeconomics and macroeconomics. Microeconomics examines

the behavior of basic elements in the economy, including individual agents

(such as households and firms or as buyers and sellers) and markets, and

their interactions. Macroeconomics analyzes the entire economy and issues

affecting it, including unemployment, inflation, economic growth, and

monetary and fiscal policy.

Other broad distinctions include those between positive

economics (describing "what is") and normative economics (advocating

"what ought to be"); between economic theory and applied economics;

between rational and behavioral economics; and between mainstream

economics (more "orthodox" and dealing with the "rationality-individualismequilibrium nexus") and heterodox economics (more "radical" and dealing

with the "institutions-history-social structure nexus").

7

[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

Economic analysis may be applied throughout society,

as in business, finance, health care, and government, but also to such

diverse subjects as crime, education, the family, law, politics, religion, social

institutions, war, and science.] At the turn of the 21st century, the expanding

domain of economics in the social sciences has been described as economic

imperialism

The Field of Natural & Social Sciences

For any of the natural sciences, experimentation is very important. Now, for

the precise measurement of results, their tabulation, i.e. recording and

comparison, is required, which is nothing but a form of statistics. Similarly, in

social sciences scenario, it is very important to consider all the data related

to the subjects in observation. Since social science spectrums includes a

great number of subjects, mass data collection and assimilation is inevitable.

This can be a really tedious task, if not done using proper statistical

channels.

Astronomy is an ancient art and one of the most primitive too. Star gazing

may be one of the easiest things to do in the night, but capturing exact

distances in the space and predicting celestial events can be next to

impossible, if a statistical approach is not used. Astronomers have been

using statistical methods, like method of least squares, for a long time for

calculation of celestial distances and comparing objects. Astronomy is one of

the oldest branches of statistical study; it deals with the measurement of

distance, sizes, masses and densities of heavenly bodies by means of

observations. During these measurements errors are unavoidable so most

probable measurements are founded by using statistical methods.

The Banking Sector

Banking sector is very important for general public. This sector, too, uses

statistical data utilization approach for its functioning. The banking sector

works on the money exchange system. They collect money from depositors

and give money to people who want to borrow. All the while banks earn

interest, a part of which they offer to the depositors. The banks calculate

through statistical approach, which is they calculate the number of people

who will appear each day as depositors or withdrawers and plans their

actions similarly. If the calculation goes wrong, chances of the business

collapsing and public money being at jeopardy is high. Statistics play an

important role in banking. The banks make use of statistics for a number of

purposes.

8

[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

In business structures, there may be nothing more important than statistical

data and vice versa. Every business collects data about its consumers and

their needs. This data is then assimilated and interpreted in order to form the

base of their future plans and goals. Only on the basis of accurate data

collection and assimilation can accurate projections for the future of the

business be derived. Everything, right from expansion plans, disinvestment

moves and new business and product proposals depend on such statistical

calculations. Any small mistake here can spell doom for the business.

Statistics play an important role in business.

Mathematics

Statistical plays a central role in almost all natural and social sciences. The

methods of natural sciences are most reliable but conclusions draw from

them are only probable, because they are based on incomplete evidence.

Statistical helps in describing these measurements more precisely. Statistics

is branch of applied mathematics.

State Management

Statistics is essential for a country. Different policies of the government are

based on statistics. Statistical data are now widely used in taking all

administrative decisions. Suppose if the government wants to revise the pay

scales of employees in view of an increase in the living cost, statistical

methods will be used to determine the rise in the cost of living.

[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

Task 02

Select at least 2 problems/situations relevant to your field and explain how

you use statistical methods to solve, analyze these problems/situations. (P8)

Statistics released by the Health and Safety Executive for 2005/06 show the

rate of fatal and major injuries in the construction industry is continuing to

fall. The Health and Safety Statistics 2005/06 report shows:

1. The rate of reported fatal injuries (to all workers, including the selfemployed) in construction between 1999/00 and 2005/06 has reduced

by around 36%;

2. The rate of reported major injuries to employees in construction

between 1999/00 and 2005/06 has reduced by around 22%;

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[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

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[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

Construction injury rates since 1999/2000

There has also been good progress towards the all industry Revitalising

targets of 2000, although the industry is still falling short of its own

ambitious targets set at the 2001 Construction Summit.

For the first time the proportion of major injuries due to falls from height has

been overtaken by those resulting from slips, trips and falls on the same

level. Injuries due to slips and trips and manual handling have risen steadily

over the past few years while those from falls from height and being struck

by an object have been reduced substantially.

falls on the same level;

There were 917 major injuries in construction caused by falls from

height;

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[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

carrying;

including flying/falling object.

Detail of causes for fatalities can be found at

Commenting on the statistics, HSE's Chief Inspector of Construction, Stephen

Williams said: "My congratulations go out to the industry on the progress it

has made so far. I am particularly pleased to see the encouraging signs that

it has taken ownership of its health and safety performance and worked hard

to achieve the lowest incidence rates ever for fatal, major injuries and over

three day injuries."

"There has been very good progress in reducing injuries due to falls and

being hit by objects. This, coupled with the decrease in fatal injuries

announced earlier this year (down to 59 from last year's total of 69) shows

that the hard work by many in the industry is paying off. However, slips and

trips and manual handling injuries are increasing. It may be that they receive

less attention because they rarely result in fatalities; nevertheless more

needs to be done to prevent these types of injury. In particular, sites need to

be kept tidy, which is hard work and requires persistence.

"We need to focus more on these areas, while maintaining the progress on

falls from height. If the industry had made the same progress in these other

areas it would have been close to meeting its own challenging targets."

13

[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

Task 03

(A) State and explain one diagrammatic and one graphical representation

used to illustrate/ interpret the data. Which is more suitable to interpret a

discrete set of data?

Diagrammatic representation of data

Data can be represented diagrammatically by pictograms, column graphs,

horizontal bar charts, pie charts, line graphs etc. In bar chart, numerical data

is represented by bars, which may be vertical (column graph) or horizontal

(in horizontal bar graph). These bars must be of uniform width and equally

spaced. The labels on horizontal and vertical axes should be clear. If

subcomponents of items are given, then the bars may be subdivided. If two

or more different values are given for each item, and comparison between

these values is required, then multiple bar charts are better. Here bars for an

item are placed side-by-side.

Bar chart

In a bar chart, the height of the bar shows the frequency of the result. As the

height of bar represents frequency, label the vertical axis 'Frequency'.

14

[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

Visualization techniques are ways of creating and manipulating graphical

representations of data. We use these representations in order to gain better

insight and understanding of the problem we are studying - pictures can

convey an overall message much better than a list of numbers. In this

section we describe some graphical presentations of data.

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[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

representations of data. We use these representations in order to gain better

insight and understanding of the problem we are studying - pictures can

convey an overall message much better than a list of numbers.

In this section we describe some graphical presentations of data.

Line or Dot Plots

Line plots are graphical representations of numerical data. A line plot is a

number line with xs placed above septic numbers to show their frequency.

By the frequency of a number we mean the number of occurrence of that

number. Line plots are used to represent one group of data with fewer than

50 values.

Example 30.1

Suppose thirty people live in an apartment building. These are the following

ages:

58 30 37 36 34 49 35 40 47 47

39 54 47 48 54 50 35 40 38 47

48 34 40 46 49 47 35 48 47 46

Simple Bar Diagram

Presentation of statistical data by means of rectangular bars with height

proportional to magnitude of the items is called bar diagram. Usually, vertical

bars are drawn, but, horizontal bars can as will be of use.

Simple bar diagram is drawn when items have to be compared with regard to

a single characteristic. Here, the items are represented by rectangular bars

of equal width and height proportional to their magnitude. The bars are

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[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

drawn on a common base line, with equal distance between consecutive

bars. The bars may be shaded.

Histogram

In statistics, a histogram is a graphical representation showing a visual

impression of the distribution of data. Histograms are used to plot density of

data, and often for density estimation: estimating the probability density

function of the underlying variable. It is an estimate of the probability

distribution of a continuous variable and was first introduced by Karl Pearson.

A histogram consists of tabular frequencies, shown as adjacent rectangles,

erected over discrete intervals, with an area equal to the frequency of the

observations in the interval.

17

[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

The most suitable representation to interpret a discrete set of data is the

graphical method. It is because it gives all the necessary information and the

details so that at once instance the viewer can spot the correct details out of

it.

Example

For the following frequency distribution of height of students in a tourism

section draw the histogram.

Height

140145

145150

150155

155160

160165

165170

170175

Total

No of

Stude

nt

10

18

20

19

80

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[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

(B) The responses of the 25 people who were asked about the type of

house/building they lived in.

Where F Flat, T Terraced house, SD Semidetached house, D Detached

house

B Bungalow.

F

6

T

5

SD

7

D

4

B

3

Histogram

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[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

Pie chart

1

2

3

4

5

6

20

[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

Task 04

During a construction of a building the builder has questioned the

consistency and quality if concrete block. As a first check one of the

technicians for the builder has collected measurements in the masses of 150

blocks as follows;

Mass (kg)

No of blocks (f)

fx

8.0 - 8.4

8.2

16.4

8.5 -8.9

8.7

60.9

9.0 - 9.4

15

9.2

138.0

9.5 - 9.9

20

9.7

194.0

10.0 - 10.4

27

10.2

275.4

10.5 - 10.9

29

10.7

310.3

11.0 - 11.4

25

11.2

280.0

11.5 - 11.9

12

11.7

140.0

12.0 -12.4

10

12.2

122.0

12.5 - 12.9

12.7

38.1

150

21

1575.5

[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

22

[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

ii.

(a)

Mean (M)= fx/f

= 1575.5/150

=10.503

(b)

The median,

A + B= 29

2 + 7 + 15 + 20 + 27 + A = B + 25 + 12 + 10 + 3

71 + A = B + 52

A-B = -19

1 + 2

2A = 10

A=5

The width of A = 5/29 * class interval

= 5/29* 0.5 = 0.0862

Median = 10.5 + 0.0862

= 10.5862

(c)

The range

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[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

(d)

The variance =

[(8.2-10.5)2 + (8.7-10.5)2 + (9.2-10.5)2 +(9.7-10.5)2 +(10.2-10.5)2 +(10.7-10.5)2 +(11.210.5)2 +( 11.7-10.5)2 + ( 12.2-10.5)2 +( 12.7-10.5)2 ] / 10

= 20.59/10

=2.059.

iii.

According to my idea to builders that should take high weights blocks take to

foundation. If more than 10.5kg its suitable to use for foundation. If its less

than 10.5kg its suitable to use for walls.

24

[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

Task 05

A construction firm has 30 designs of houses for the clients, which can be

considered under three groups Luxury, Semi-Luxury and Moderate. The

details of these designs according to

are given in table 2.

Description of variables

X1 Type of the house: 1 Luxury

2 Semi Luxury

3 Moderate

X2 Roof :

1 Tile

2 Sheets

2 - 1500 sq.ft

X4 Finished Walls : 1 Smooth

25

[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

Plan

X1

X2

X3

X4

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

1

1

2

2

2

3

2

1

1

2

3

3

1

2

3

1

2

2

3

3

2

1

3

2

1

2

2

2

1

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

2

1

2

1

1

2

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

1

2

1

2

1

1

2

1

1

1

2

1

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

1

1

2

2

2

1

1

1

2

1

1

2

2

2

1

1

1

2

1

2

2

2

1

1

1

2

1

2

1

2

1

1

1

2

2

1

1

1

2

1

1

2

1

1

i.

26

[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

(a)

. A luxury house- 9/30

(b). A semi luxury house- 14/30

(c). Moderate house- 7/30

(d). A luxury house or a house with floor area > 1500 sq.ft- 21/30

(e). A house with a tile roof given that it is a semi luxury house- 6/30

ii.

This combination is not there in the designs. Therefore the probability of

selecting a moderate house with a sheet roof, rough finish and with the floor

area <1500sq.ft is 0

iii.

(a)

1. Event 1: luxury houses with a floor area which is < or equal to 1500 and

rough walls

Event 2: a house with a sheet roof, with rough wall and a floor area less than

1500 square feet

{x1=1 , x2=2 , x3=2 , x4=2 }

2. Event 1: luxury houses with rough walls, more than 1500 in area.

Event 2: a house with a sheet roof, rough walls and more than 1500square

feet in area.

{x1=1, x2=2 , x3=1 , x4=2 }

3. Event 1: a moderate house, with sheet roof and with an area of less than

1500 square feet

Event 2: a moderate house with sheet roof and with rough walls.

{x1=3 , x2=2 , x3=2 , x4=2 }

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[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

Sheet roof, rough wall ,floor area less than 1500 square feet. Mutually

Exclusive Events is a situation where the occurrence of one event is not

influenced or caused by another event.

b. Two independent events Described here

Luxury house with rough wall and floor area more than 1500 square feet.

Independent events are events where the outcome of one event does not

affect the outcome of the other events.

iv.

Ceiling type

1. Wooden ceiling

2. Asbestos sheets

Floor

3.

4.

5.

6.

type

Ceramic

Marble

Granite

Teraso

7. Yes

8. No

28

[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

Conclusion

As we have finished the assignment we got to know that we can use

statistics in everywhere. Here in construction, civil engineering and quantity

surveying theres always statistics and probability been used and of course

mathematics is very widely used.

Data or a collection of data can be represented in diagrammatically and also

graphically to interpret the behavior in a meaningful way. Most widely used

here is the use of the histogram and also frequency polygon.

As the conclusion, again I would like to say statistics are important to all the

people who live in the world. Because, we need to know somewhat of

statistics to survive the life from getting stuck. Especially as a professional in

construction industry, sometimes we have to work with data sets. Therefore

as a professional, we should have a fluent knowledge in statistics.

Probability is also a very frequently used mathematical operation for various

calculations. It cannot be used where humans are involved such as in a

cricket match because we cannot predict the winning team, where as we can

predict the most number of occurrences of masses of bricks to choose a

correct mass range of bricks for construction

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[ANALYTICAL METHODS]

References

http://www.emathzone.com/tutorials/basicstatistics/importance-of-statisticsin-different-fields.html

http://quarknet.fnal.gov/toolkits/new/histograms.html

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