15-060010-01 - FEDERAL ELECTIONS 2015

Detailed Tables

RVQUAL1. Are you eligible to vote in the upcoming Federal Election being held in October?

EDUCATION

Base: All respondents

Unweighted Base
Weighted Base
Yes

DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED

TOTAL

<HS
A

HS
B

Post Sec
C

Univ Grad
D

The
Conservative
Party
E

The Liberal Party

F

The New
Democratic
Party (NDP)
G

The Bloc
Quebecois (BQ)
H

Green Party
I

Other
J

1000
1000

33
33*

197
200

336
330

434
436

238
243

254
255

281
274

30
33**

32
32*

3
3**

1000
100.0%

33
100.0%

200
100.0%

330
100.0%

436
100.0%

243
100.0%

255
100.0%

274
100.0%

33
100.0%

32
100.0%

3
100.0%

Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D - E/F/G/H/I/J - K/L/M - N/O - P/Q/R * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing

Ipsos Public Affairs

August 26, 2015
FINAL DATA

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Detailed Tables

RV1A. Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties' candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support?

EDUCATION

DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED

TOTAL

<HS
A

HS
B

Post Sec
C

Univ Grad
D

The
Conservative
Party
E

The Liberal Party

F

The New
Democratic
Party (NDP)
G

The Bloc
Quebecois (BQ)
H

Green Party
I

Other
J

1000
1000

33
33*

197
200

336
330

434
436

238
243

254
255

281
274

30
33**

32
32*

3
3**

The Conservative Party

214
21.0%

9
28.0%

39
19.0%

75
23.0%

91
21.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

The Liberal Party

229
23.0%

8
25.0%

37
18.0%

70
21.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

248
25.0%

6
18.0%

51
25.0%

72
22.0%

0
-

229
90.0%
EGI
0
-

0
-

The New Democratic Party (NDP)

113
26.0%
B
119
27.0%

214
88.0%
FGI
0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

The Bloc Quebecois (BQ)

31
3.0%

10
2.0%

0
-

0
-

31
95.0%

0
-

0
-

31
3.0%

11
5.0%
C
9
4.0%

6
2.0%

Green Party

4
12.0%
CD
1
4.0%

248
90.0%
EFI
0
-

9
3.0%

12
3.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

3
0

0
-

2
1.0%

1
0

1
0

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

31
96.0%
EFG
0
-

3
100.0%

Would not vote/None/Would spoil ballot

35
4.0%

1
4.0%

9
5.0%

15
5.0%

10
2.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

Don't Know/Not sure

209
21.0%

3
8.0%

43
21.0%

82
25.0%
AD

81
19.0%

29
12.0%

26
10.0%

26
10.0%

1
5.0%

1
4.0%

0
-

Base: All respondents

Unweighted Base
Weighted Base

Other

Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D - E/F/G/H/I/J - K/L/M - N/O - P/Q/R * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing

Ipsos Public Affairs

August 26, 2015
FINAL DATA

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Detailed Tables

RV1B. Well, which party would you say you would lean towards?

EDUCATION

DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED

TOTAL

<HS
A

HS
B

Post Sec
C

Univ Grad
D

The
Conservative
Party
E

The Liberal Party

F

The New
Democratic
Party (NDP)
G

The Bloc
Quebecois (BQ)
H

Green Party
I

Other
J

218
209

3
3**

46
43*

86
82*

83
81*

29
29**

27
26**

28
26**

1
1**

2
1**

0
-**

The Conservative Party

29
14.0%

0
-

4
9.0%

15
18.0%

10
12.0%

29
100.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

The Liberal Party

26
13.0%

1
39.0%

4
10.0%

11
14.0%

10
12.0%

0
-

26
100.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

The New Democratic Party (NDP)

26
13.0%

1
27.0%

3
8.0%

7
9.0%

15
19.0%

0
-

0
-

26
100.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

The Bloc Quebecois (BQ)

1
1.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

1
2.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

1
100.0%

0
-

0
-

Green Party

1
1.0%

0
-

0
-

1
1.0%

1
1.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

1
100.0%

0
-

Don't know

125
60.0%

1
35.0%

32
74.0%
D

49
59.0%

44
54.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

Base: Undecided
Unweighted Base
Weighted Base

Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D - E/F/G/H/I/J - K/L/M - N/O - P/Q/R * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing

Ipsos Public Affairs

August 26, 2015
FINAL DATA

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Detailed Tables

RV1A/Q1B. ALL VOTERS - LEANERS INCLUDED

EDUCATION

DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED

TOTAL

<HS
A

HS
B

Post Sec
C

Univ Grad
D

The
Conservative
Party
E

The Liberal Party

F

The New
Democratic
Party (NDP)
G

The Bloc
Quebecois (BQ)
H

Green Party
I

Other
J

1000
1000

33
33*

197
200

336
330

434
436

238
243

254
255

281
274

30
33**

32
32*

3
3**

The Conservative Party

243
24.0%

9
28.0%

43
21.0%

90
27.0%

101
23.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

The Liberal Party

255
25.0%

9
28.0%

41
21.0%

82
25.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

274
27.0%

7
21.0%

54
27.0%

79
24.0%

0
-

255
100.0%
EGI
0
-

0
-

The New Democratic Party (NDP)

0
-

0
-

33
3.0%

0
-

0
-

33
100.0%

0
-

0
-

32
3.0%

11
5.0%
C
9
4.0%

6
2.0%

Green Party

4
12.0%
CD
1
4.0%

274
100.0%
EFI
0
-

0
-

The Bloc Quebecois (BQ)

123
28.0%
B
134
31.0%
C
12
3.0%

243
100.0%
FGI
0
-

9
3.0%

13
3.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

3
0

0
-

2
1.0%

1
0

1
0

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

32
100.0%
EFG
0
-

3
100.0%

Would not vote/None/Would spoil ballot

35
4.0%

1
4.0%

9
5.0%

15
5.0%

10
2.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

Don't Know/Not sure

125
12.0%

1
3.0%

32
16.0%
D

49
15.0%

44
10.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

Base: All respondents

Unweighted Base
Weighted Base

Other

Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D - E/F/G/H/I/J - K/L/M - N/O - P/Q/R * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing

Ipsos Public Affairs

August 26, 2015
FINAL DATA

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Detailed Tables

RV1A/Q1B. DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED

EDUCATION

DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED

TOTAL

<HS
A

HS
B

Post Sec
C

Univ Grad
D

The
Conservative
Party
E

The Liberal Party

F

The New
Democratic
Party (NDP)
G

The Bloc
Quebecois (BQ)
H

Green Party
I

Other
J

838
840

31
31**

155
160

272
267

380
383

238
243

254
255

281
274

30
33**

32
32*

3
3**

The Conservative Party

243
29.0%

9
30.0%

43
27.0%

101
26.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

255
30.0%

9
30.0%

41
26.0%

123
32.0%

243
100.0%
FGI
0
-

0
-

The Liberal Party

90
34.0%
D
82
31.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

The New Democratic Party (NDP)

274
33.0%

7
22.0%

54
34.0%

79
30.0%

134
35.0%

0
-

255
100.0%
EGI
0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

The Bloc Quebecois (BQ)

33
4.0%

4
13.0%

6
2.0%

12
3.0%

0
-

0
-

33
100.0%

0
-

0
-

Green Party

32
4.0%

1
4.0%

11
7.0%
C
9
5.0%

274
100.0%
EFI
0
-

9
4.0%

13
3.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

3
0

0
-

2
1.0%

1
0

1
0

0
-

0
-

0
-

0
-

32
100.0%
EFG
0
-

Base: Decided Voters - Leaners Included

Unweighted Base
Weighted Base

Other

3
100.0%

Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D - E/F/G/H/I/J - K/L/M - N/O - P/Q/R * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing

Ipsos Public Affairs

August 26, 2015
FINAL DATA

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Detailed Tables

RV2. How certain are you that this is the party that you will actually support on Election Day:

EDUCATION

DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED

TOTAL

<HS
A

HS
B

Post Sec
C

Univ Grad
D

The
Conservative
Party
E

The Liberal Party

F

The New
Democratic
Party (NDP)
G

The Bloc
Quebecois (BQ)
H

Green Party
I

Other
J

848
849

31
31**

158
162

276
270

383
385

238
243

254
255

281
274

30
33**

32
32*

3
3**

Absolutely certain

353
42.0%

16
51.0%

68
42.0%

122
45.0%

147
38.0%

88
35.0%

105
38.0%

20
60.0%

12
37.0%

1
35.0%

Fairly certain

391
46.0%

14
46.0%

75
46.0%

120
44.0%

182
47.0%

122
50.0%
FG
91
37.0%

16
49.0%

0
-

90
11.0%

1
3.0%

18
11.0%

23
8.0%

48
13.0%

27
11.0%

138
50.0%
E
30
11.0%

11
32.0%

Not very certain

135
53.0%
E
26
10.0%

2
7.0%

2
6.0%

2
65.0%

Not at all certain

15
2.0%

0
-

2
1.0%

5
2.0%

8
2.0%

3
1.0%

5
2.0%

2
1.0%

0
-

3
9.0%
EFG

0
-

T2B

744
88.0%

30
97.0%

143
88.0%

243
90.0%

329
85.0%

212
87.0%

223
88.0%

242
89.0%

31
93.0%

27
85.0%

1
35.0%

L2B

105
12.0%

1
3.0%

19
12.0%

28
10.0%

56
15.0%

31
13.0%

32
12.0%

31
11.0%

2
7.0%

5
15.0%

2
65.0%

Base: Respondents who selected a party at RV1A or RV1B

Unweighted Base
Weighted Base

TOPBOX & LOWBOX SUMMARY

Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D - E/F/G/H/I/J - K/L/M - N/O - P/Q/R * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing

Ipsos Public Affairs

August 26, 2015
FINAL DATA

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Detailed Tables

RV3. And, assuming you can't vote for your first choice, which party would you support as a second choice?

EDUCATION

DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED

TOTAL

<HS
A

HS
B

Post Sec
C

Univ Grad
D

The
Conservative
Party
E

The Liberal Party

F

The New
Democratic
Party (NDP)
G

The Bloc
Quebecois (BQ)
H

Green Party
I

Other
J

848
849

31
31**

158
162

276
270

383
385

238
243

254
255

281
274

30
33**

32
32*

3
3**

The Conservative Party

65
8.0%

2
6.0%

15
9.0%

16
6.0%

33
9.0%

0
-

7
22.0%

33
20.0%

60
22.0%

88
23.0%

The New Democratic Party (NDP)

198
23.0%

7
23.0%

29
18.0%

62
23.0%

99
26.0%

The Bloc Quebecois (BQ)

27
3.0%

0
-

3
2.0%

8
3.0%

16
4.0%

52
21.0%
F
49
20.0%
G
0
-

0
-

Some other party

110
13.0%

2
6.0%

22
14.0%

35
13.0%

51
13.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

Don't know/Not sure

227
27.0%

9
30.0%

49
19.0%

0
-

4
13.0%

0
-

0
-

33
100.0%

18
55.0%
FG
0
-

1
35.0%

33
4.0%

82
30.0%
D
6
2.0%

86
22.0%

(DK/Ref/Not Stated)

50
31.0%
D
11
7.0%
C

26
9.0%
EF
46
17.0%
I
45
16.0%

2
6.0%
E
7
22.0%
F
5
16.0%
G
0
-

2
65.0%

188
22.0%

28
10.0%
E
128
47.0%
EFI
0
-

0
-

The Liberal Party

33
13.0%
E
0
-

Base: Respondents who selected a party at RV1A or RV1B

Unweighted Base
Weighted Base

12
3.0%

35
14.0%
I
108
44.0%
FG
0
-

143
56.0%
EGI
1
0
29
11.0%

0
0
-

0
0
0
-

0
-

Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D - E/F/G/H/I/J - K/L/M - N/O - P/Q/R * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing

Ipsos Public Affairs

August 26, 2015
FINAL DATA

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Detailed Tables

RV4. Thinking about the Conservative government under the leadership of Stephen Harper, from what you have seen, read or heard, would you say that you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove of their performance?

EDUCATION

DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED

TOTAL

<HS
A

HS
B

Post Sec
C

Univ Grad
D

The
Conservative
Party
E

The Liberal Party

F

The New
Democratic
Party (NDP)
G

The Bloc
Quebecois (BQ)
H

Green Party
I

Other
J

Base: All respondents

Unweighted Base
Weighted Base

1000
1000

33
33*

197
200

336
330

434
436

238
243

254
255

281
274

30
33**

32
32*

3
3**

Strongly approve

82
8.0%

4
11.0%

10
5.0%

32
7.0%

3
1.0%

0
-

0
-

0
-

296
30.0%

8
24.0%

60
30.0%

120
27.0%

42
17.0%

38
14.0%

5
15.0%

5
14.0%

3
81.0%

Somewhat disapprove

260
26.0%

7
21.0%

63
31.0%

82
25.0%

109
25.0%

71
29.0%
FGI
150
62.0%
FGI
19
8.0%

7
3.0%

Somewhat approve

37
11.0%
B
107
33.0%

15
45.0%

67
34.0%

104
32.0%

175
40.0%
C

2
1.0%

11
33.0%
E
17
52.0%
E

0
-

362
36.0%

85
31.0%
E
148
54.0%
E

6
18.0%

Strongly disapprove

70
27.0%
E
136
53.0%
E

T2B

378
38.0%

12
35.0%

70
35.0%

152
35.0%

41
15.0%

5
15.0%

5
14.0%

3
81.0%

622
62.0%

22
65.0%

130
65.0%

222
91.0%
FGI
21
9.0%

49
19.0%

L2B

144
44.0%
D
186
56.0%

206
81.0%
E

233
85.0%
E

28
85.0%

27
86.0%
E

1
19.0%

22
67.0%

1
19.0%

TOPBOX & LOWBOX SUMMARY

284
65.0%
C

Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D - E/F/G/H/I/J - K/L/M - N/O - P/Q/R * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing

Ipsos Public Affairs

August 26, 2015
FINAL DATA

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Detailed Tables

RV5. Some people say that the Conservative government under Prime Minister Stephen Harper has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected on October 19th. Other people say that it is time for another federal party to take over and run the country. Which of these
statements is closest to your point of view?

EDUCATION

DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED

TOTAL

<HS
A

HS
B

Post Sec
C

Univ Grad
D

The
Conservative
Party
E

1000
1000

33
33*

197
200

336
330

434
436

238
243

254
255

281
274

30
33**

32
32*

3
3**

Harper government has done a good job and deserves re-election

286
29.0%

10
29.0%

49
25.0%

103
31.0%

125
29.0%

220
90.0%
FGI

13
5.0%

10
3.0%

5
16.0%

3
8.0%

3
81.0%

Time for another federal party to take over

714
71.0%

24
71.0%

151
75.0%

228
69.0%

311
71.0%

23
10.0%

242
95.0%
E

264
97.0%
E

28
84.0%

29
92.0%
E

1
19.0%

Base: All respondents

Unweighted Base
Weighted Base

The Liberal Party

F

The New
Democratic
Party (NDP)
G

The Bloc
Quebecois (BQ)
H

Green Party
I

Other
J

Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D - E/F/G/H/I/J - K/L/M - N/O - P/Q/R * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing

Ipsos Public Affairs

August 26, 2015
FINAL DATA

20 of 83

15-060010-01 - FEDERAL ELECTIONS 2015

Detailed Tables

5. In your view, which Party and leader is gaining the most popularity and momentum in this election?

EDUCATION

DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED

TOTAL

<HS
A

HS
B

Post Sec
C

Univ Grad
D

The
Conservative
Party
E

The Liberal Party

F

The New
Democratic
Party (NDP)
G

The Bloc
Quebecois (BQ)
H

Green Party
I

Other
J

1000
1000

33
33*

197
200

336
330

434
436

238
243

254
255

281
274

30
33**

32
32*

3
3**

Justin Trudeau and the Liberals

297
30.0%

11
33.0%

61
30.0%

98
30.0%

127
29.0%

41
17.0%

50
18.0%

4
11.0%

3
10.0%

0
-

Stephen Harper and the Conservatives

159
16.0%

3
9.0%

2
6.0%

0
-

3
81.0%

15
44.0%

86
34.0%

18
56.0%

13
40.0%

1
19.0%

Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc

12
1.0%

4
2.0%

3
1.0%

9
27.0%

0
-

0
-

Elizabeth May and the Green Party

56
6.0%

2
7.0%
CD
2
7.0%

229
53.0%
BC
2
1.0%

100
41.0%
FGI
96
40.0%

9
3.0%

476
48.0%

61
18.0%
D
148
45.0%

56
13.0%

Thomas Mulcair and the NDP

39
19.0%
D
84
42.0%

148
58.0%
EGI
11
4.0%

12
6.0%

20
6.0%

21
5.0%

0
-

16
50.0%
EFG

0
-

Base: All respondents

Unweighted Base
Weighted Base

0
-

0
-

204
74.0%
EFI
0
-

5
2.0%

10
4.0%

12
4.0%

Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D - E/F/G/H/I/J - K/L/M - N/O - P/Q/R * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing

Ipsos Public Affairs

August 26, 2015
FINAL DATA

22 of 83