ejercicios

© All Rights Reserved

Просмотров: 974

ejercicios

© All Rights Reserved

- What do you know about Down syndrome?
- 9. Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing One-Sample Testsnew.doc
- Strategic Practice and Homework 1
- Aarshia School Ppt
- ued 495-496 chadwick rachel vcla scores
- PPT w.Z topic 7 2013 sem6
- Down Syndrome and Role of Homeopathy
- 394 Hw 2 New Solutions
- Accenture
- Probability Basics (1)
- Objective Test
- Thanks to Barry By Thomas Moriarty.docx
- Probability and Statistics
- CSIR NET 2013.pdf
- Ex 1
- Problem Week III a Lec
- 11 Maths Notes 16 Probability
- Basic Concepts of Probability
- MIT18_05S14_class1slides
- Kuliahke1tambahanPermutasidankombinasi.ppt

Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 7

Example 7

Multiplication rule

Picture the Scenario

For a three-question multiple-choice pop quiz, a student is totally unprepared and randomly guesses the answer to each question. If each question

has five options, then the probability of selecting the correct answer for any

given question is 1/5, or 0.20. With guessing, the response on one question

is not influenced by the response on another question. Thus, whether one

question is answered correctly is independent of whether or not another

question is answered correctly.

Questions to Explore

a. Find the probabilities of the possible student outcomes for the quiz, in

terms of whether each response is correct (C) or incorrect (I).

b. Find the probability that the student passes, answering at least two

questions correctly.

Think It Through

a. For each question P(C) = 0.20 and P(I) = 1 - 0.20 = 0.80. The

probability that the student answers all three questions correctly is

P(CCC) = P(C) * P(C) * P(C) = 0.20 * 0.20 * 0.20 = 0.008.

This would be unusual. Similarly, the probability of answering the first

two questions correctly and the third question incorrectly is

P(CCI) = P(C) * P(C) * P(I) = 0.20 * 0.20 * 0.80 = 0.032.

This is the same as P(CIC) and P(ICC), the other possible ways of

getting two correct. Figure 5.8 is a tree diagram showing how to

multiply probabilities to find the probabilities for all eight possible

outcomes.

Question 1 Question 2

Question 3 Sample

Space

C (.2)

C (.2)

I (.8)

C (.2)

C (.2)

I (.8)

I (.8)

C (.2)

C (.2)

I (.8)

I (.8)

C (.2)

I (.8)

I (.8)

Probability

CCC

.2 .2 .2 = .008

CCI

.2 .2 .8 = .032

CIC

.2 .8 .2 = .032

CII

.2 .8 .8 = .128

ICC

.8 .2 .2 = .032

ICI

.8 .2 .8 = .128

IIC

.8 .8 .2 = .128

III

.8 .8 .8 = .512

Figure 5.8 Tree Diagram for Guessing on a Three-Question Pop Quiz. Each path

from the first set of branches to the third set determines one sample space outcome.

Multiplication of the probabilities along that path gives its probability, when trials are

independent. Question Would you expect trials to be independent if a student is not

merely guessing on every question? Why or why not?

b. The probability of at least two correct responses is

P(CCC) + P(CCI) + P(CIC) + P(ICC) = 0.008 + 3(0.032) = 0.104.

In summary, there is only about a 10% chance of passing when a student randomly guesses the answers.

Insight

As a check, you can see that the probabilities of the eight possible outcomes

sum to 1.0. The probabilities indicate that it is in a students best interests not

to rely on random guessing.

Try Exercise 5.15

In practice, events need not be independent. For instance, on a quiz with only two

questions, the instructor found the following proportions for the actual responses

of her students (I = incorrect, C = correct) :

Outcome:

Probability:

Recall

IC

0.11

CI

0.05

CC

0.58

Let A denote {first question correct} and let B denote {second question correct}.

Based on these probabilities,

expressed in contingency table form

2nd Question

1st Question

II

0.26

0.58

0.05

0.11

0.26

and

P(A and B) = P({CC}) = 0.58.

If A and B were independent, then

A and B

Since P(A and B) actually equaled 0.58, A and B were not independent.

Responses to different questions on a quiz are typically not independent. Most

students do not guess randomly. Students who get the first question correct may

have studied more than students who do not get the first question correct, and

thus they may also be more likely to get the second question correct.

Dont assume that events are independent unless you have given this assumption careful

thought and it seems plausible. In Section 5.3, you will learn more about how to find

probabilities when events are not independent.

Probability Rules

In this section, we have developed several rules for finding probabilities. Lets

summarize them.

The probability of each individual outcome is between 0 and 1, and the total of all the

individual probabilities equals 1. The probability of an event is the sum of the probabilities of the individual outcomes in that event.

228

( c) = 1 - P(A

(A).

The union of two events (that is, A occurs or B occurs or both) has

P(A

( or B) = P(A

(A) + P(B) - P(A

( and B).

Two events A and B are disjoint when they have no common elements. Then

P(A

( and B) = P(A

(A) * P(B).

P(A

( and B) = 0, and thus P(A

( or B) = P(A

(A) + P(B).

5.2

university asks students what they think of the quality

of the existing student union building on the campus.

The possible responses were great, good, fair, and poor.

Another part of the poll asked students how they feel

about a proposed fee increase to help fund the cost of

building a new student union. The possible responses to

this question were in favor, opposed, and no opinion.

a. List all potential outcomes in the sample space for

someone who is responding to both questions.

b. Show how a tree diagram can be used to display the

outcomes listed in part a.

5.14 Random digit A single random digit is selected using

software or a random number table.

a. State the sample space for the possible outcomes.

b. State the probability for each possible outcome, based

on what you know about the way random numbers are

generated.

c. Each outcome in a sample space must have probability

between 0 and 1, and the total of the probabilities must

equal 1. Show that your assignment of probabilities in

part b satisfies this rule.

5.15 Pop quiz A teacher gives a four-question unannounced

true-false pop quiz, with two possible answers to each

question.

a. Use a tree diagram to show the possible response patterns, in terms of whether any given response is correct or

incorrect. How many outcomes are in the sample space?

b. An unprepared student guesses all the answers randomly. Find the probabilities of the possible outcomes

on the tree diagram.

c. Refer to part b. Using the tree diagram, evaluate the

probability of passing the quiz, which the teacher

defines as answering at least three questions correctly.

5.16 More true-false questions Your teacher gives a truefalse pop quiz with 10 questions.

a. Show that the number of possible outcomes for the sample space of possible sequences of 10 answers is 1024.

b. What is the complement of the event of getting at least

one of the questions wrong?

c. With random guessing, show that the probability of

getting at least one question wrong is 0.999.

track and place some bets. One friend remarks that in an

upcoming race, the number 5 horse is paying 50 to 1. This

means that anyone who bets on the 5 horse receives $50

for each $1 bet, if in fact the 5 horse wins the race. He

goes on to mention that it is a great bet, because there

are only eight horses running in the race, and therefore

the probability of horse 5 winning must be 1/8. Is the last

statement true or false? Explain.

5.18 Two girls A couple plans to have two children. Each

child is equally likely to be a girl or boy, with gender

independent of that of the other child.

a. Construct a sample space for the genders of the two

children.

b. Find the probability that both children are girls.

c. Answer part b if in reality, for a given child, the chance

of a girl is 0.49.

5.19 Three children A couple plans on having three children.

Suppose that the probability of any given child being

female is 0.5, and also suppose that the genders of each

child are independent events.

a. Write out all outcomes in the sample space for the

genders of the three children.

b. What should be the probability associated with each

outcome?

Using the sample space constructed in part a, find the

probability that the couple will have

c. two girls and one boy.

d. at least one child of each gender.

5.20 Wrong sample space A couple plans on having four

children. The father notes that the sample space for the

number of girls the couple can have is 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4.

He goes on to say that since there are five outcomes in

the sample space, and since each child is equally likely to

be a boy or girl, all five outcomes must be equally likely.

Therefore, the probability of all four children being girls is

1/5. Explain the flaw in his reasoning.

5.21 Insurance Every year the insurance industry spends considerable resources assessing risk probabilities. To accumulate a risk of about one in a million of death, you can

drive 100 miles, take a cross country plane flight,

work as a police officer for 10 hours, work in a coal mine

232

P(A | B) =

A

P(A and B)

P(B)

denominator is always

for the "given" event

the cases in which B occurred, P(A B) is the proportion in which A also occurred. Question

Sketch a representation of P(B A). Is P(A B) necessarily equal to P(B A)?

Example 8

Conditional

probability

Picture the Scenario

A diagnostic test for a condition is said to be positive if it states that the

condition is present and negative if it states that the condition is absent. How

accurate are diagnostic tests? One way to assess accuracy is to measure the

probabilities of the two types of possible error:

False positive: Test states the condition is present, but it is actually

absent.

False negative: Test states the condition is absent, but it is actually

present.

The Triple Blood Test screens a pregnant woman and provides as estimated risk of her baby being born with the genetic disorder Down syndrome. This syndrome, which occurs in about 1 in 800 live births, arises from

an error in cell division that results in a fetus having an extra copy of chromosome 21. It is the most common genetic cause of mental impairment.

The chance of having a baby with Down syndrome increases after a woman

is 35 years old.

A study2 of 5282 women aged 35 or over analyzed the Triple Blood Test

to test its accuracy. It was reported that of the 5282 women, 48 of the 54 cases

of Down syndrome would have been identified using the test and 25 percent of

the unaffected pregnancies would have been identified as being at high risk for

Down syndrome (these are false positives).

Questions to Explore

a. Construct the contingency table that shows the counts for the possible outcomes of the blood test and whether the fetus has Down

syndrome.

b. Assuming the sample is representative of the population, estimate the

probability of a positive test for a randomly chosen pregnant woman

35 years or older.

c. Given that the diagnostic test result is positive, estimate the probability that Down syndrome truly is present.

J. Haddow et al., New England Journal of Medicine, vol. 330, pp. 11141118, 1994.

Think It Through

a. Well use the following notation for the possible outcomes of the two

variables:

Down syndrome status : D = Down syndrome present, Dc = unaffected

Blood test result : POS = positive, NEG = negative.

Table 5.5 shows the four possible combinations of outcomes. From the

article quote, there were 54 cases of Down syndrome. This is the first row

total. Of them, 48 tested positive, so 54 - 48 = 6 tested negative. These

are the counts in the first row. There were 54 Down cases out of n = 5282,

so 5282 - 54 = 5228 cases were unaffected, event Dc. Thats the second

row total. Now, 25% of those 5228, or 0.25 * 5228 = 1307, would have a

positive test. The remaining 5228 - 1307 = 3921 would have a negative

test. These are the counts for the two cells in the second row.

Table 5.5 Contingency Table for Triple Blood Test of Down Syndrome

Blood Test

Down Syndrome Status

POS

NEG

Total

D (Down)

48

54

D (unaffected)

1307

3921

5228

Total

1355

3927

5282

P(POS) = 1355/5282 = 0.257.

c. The probability of Down syndrome, given that the test is positive, is

the conditional probability, P(D POS). Conditioning on a positive test

means we consider only the cases in the first column of Table 5.5. Of

the 1355 who tested positive, 48 cases actually had Down syndrome,

so P(D POS) = 48/1355 = 0.035. Lets see how to get this from the

definition of conditional probability,

P(D POS) =

.

P(POS)

Since P(POS) = 0.257 from part b and P(D and POS) = 48/5282 =

0.0091, we estimate P(D POS) = 0.0091/0.257 = 0.035. In summary,

of the women who tested positive, fewer than 4% actually had fetuses

with Down syndrome. This is somewhat comforting news to a woman

who has a positive test result.

Caution

The P(D | NEG) is not the same as the

false negative rate. We found in Example 8

that the P(D | NEG) = 0.0015. The false

negative rate is found by evaluating

P(NEG | D) = 6/54 = 0.11. Be careful to

watch the event being conditioned upon.

Insight

So why should a woman undergo this test, as most positives are false positives? From Table 5.5, P(D) = 54/5282 = 0.0102, so we estimate about a

1% chance of Down syndrome for women aged 35 or over. Also from Table

5.5, P(D NEG) = 6/3927 = 0.0015, a bit more than 1 in 1000. A woman can

have much less worry about Down syndrome if she has a negative test result

because the chance of Down is then a bit more than 1 in 1000, compared to

1 in 100 overall.

In 2011, researchers announced a new and promising blood test for

detecting Downs syndrome using DNA. Researchers noted, however, that

more research is needed to improve the tests accuracy and that the smallscale study needed to be expanded to a larger-scale study of the population

(www.technologyreview.com/biomedicine/18139/page1/).

Try Exercises 5.34 and 5.37

234

When you read or hear a news report that uses a probability statement, be careful to

distinguish whether it is reporting a conditional probability. Most statements are conditional

on some event and must be interpreted in that context. For instance, probabilities reported

by opinion polls are often conditional on a persons gender, race, or age group.

From Section 5.2, when A and B are independent events, P(A and B) = P(A) *

P(B). The definition of conditional probability provides a more general formula

for P(A and B) that holds regardless of whether A and B are independent. We

can rewrite the definition P(A | B) P(A and B)/P(B), multiplying both

sides of the formula by P(B), to get P(B) * P(A B) = P(B) * [P(A and B)/

P(B)] = P(A and B), so that

P(A and B) = P(B) * P(A B).

For events A and B, the probability that A and B both occur equals

P(A and B) = P(B) * P(A B).

Applying the conditional probability formula to P(B A), we also see that

P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B A).

Example 9

Multiplication rule

Picture the Scenario

In a tennis match, on a given point, the player who is serving has two chances

to hit the ball in play. The ball must fall in the correct marked box area on

the opposite side of the net. A serve that misses that box is called a fault.

Most players hit the first serve very hard, resulting in a fair chance of making a fault. If they do make a fault, they hit the second serve less hard and

with some spin, making it more likely to be successful. Otherwise, with two

missesa double faultthey lose the point.

Question to Explore

The 2010 mens champion in the Wimbledon tournament was Rafael Nadal

of Spain. During the tournament, he made 68% of his first serves. He faulted

on the first serve 32% of the time (100 - 68 = 32). Given that he made a

fault with his first serve, he made a fault on his second serve only 9% of

the time. Assuming these are typical of his serving performance, what is the

probability that he makes a double fault when he serves?

Think It Through

Let F1 be the event that Nadal makes a fault with the first serve, and let F2 be the

event that he makes a fault with the second serve. We know P(F1) = 0.32 and

Level of Happiness

Gender

Very

Happy

Pretty

Happy

Not too

Happy

Total

Male

Female

Total

183

215

398

243

247

490

43

38

81

469

500

969

happy.

b. Estimate the probability that a married adult is very

happy, (i) given that their gender is male and (ii) given

that their gender is female.

c. For these subjects, are the events being very happy and

being a male independent? (Your answer will apply

merely to this sample. Chapter 11 will show how to

answer this for the population.)

5.40 Serena Williams serves Serena Williams won the 2010

Wimbledon Ladies Singles Championship. For the seven

matches she played in the tournament, her total number

of first serves was 379, total number of good first serves

was 256, and total number of double faults was 15.

a. Find the probability that her first serve is good.

b. Find the conditional probability of double faulting,

given that her first serve resulted in a fault.

c. On what percentage of her service points does she

double fault?

5.41 Shooting free throws Pro basketball player Shaquille

ONeal is a poor free-throw shooter. Consider situations

in which he shoots a pair of free throws. The probability

that he makes the first free throw is 0.50. Given that he

makes the first, suppose the probability that he makes the

second is 0.60. Given that he misses the first, suppose the

probability that he makes the second one is 0.40.

a. What is the probability that he makes both free

throws?

b. Find the probability that he makes one of the two free

throws (i) using the multiplicative rule with the two possible ways he can do this and (ii) by defining this as the

complement of making neither or both of the free throws.

c. Are the results of the free throws independent?

Explain.

241

5.42 Drawing cards A standard card deck has 52 cards consisting of 26 black and 26 red cards. Three cards are dealt

from a shuffled deck, without replacement.

a. True or false: The probability of being dealt three

black cards is (1/2) * (1/2) * (1/2) = 1/8. If true,

explain why. If false, show how to get the correct

probability.

b. Let A = first card red and B = second card red. Are

A and B independent? Explain why or why not.

c. Answer parts a and b if each card is replaced in the

deck after being dealt.

5.43 Drawing more cards A standard deck of poker playing cards contains four suits (clubs, diamonds, hearts,

and spades) and 13 different cards of each suit. During a

hand of poker, 5 of the 52 cards have been exposed. Of

the exposed cards, 3 were diamonds. Tony will have the

opportunity to draw two more cards, and he has surmised

that in order to win the hand, each of those two cards will

need to be diamonds. What is Tonys probability of winning the hand? (Assume the two unexposed cards are not

diamonds.)

5.44 Big loser in Lotto Example 10 showed that the probability of having the winning ticket in Lotto South was

0.00000007. Find the probability of holding a ticket that

has zero winning numbers out of the 6 numbers selected

(without replacement) for the winning ticket out of the 49

possible numbers.

5.45 Family with two children For a family with two children,

let A denote {first child is female}, let B denote (at least

one child is female}, and let C denote {both children are

female}.

a. Show that P (C A) = 1/2.

b. Are A and C independent events? Why or why not?

c. Find P (C B).

d. Describe what makes P (C A) different than P(C B).

5.46 Checking independence In three independent flips of a

balanced coin, let A denote {first flip is a head}, B denote

{second flip is a head}, C denote {first two flips are heads},

and D denote {three heads on the three flips}.

a. Find the probabilities of A, B, C, and D.

b. Which, if any, pairs of these events are independent?

Explain.

- What do you know about Down syndrome?Загружено:Down Syndrome Victoria
- 9. Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing One-Sample Testsnew.docЗагружено:Winnie Ip
- Strategic Practice and Homework 1Загружено:Dmitriy Goncharov
- Aarshia School PptЗагружено:Deepa Garwa
- ued 495-496 chadwick rachel vcla scoresЗагружено:api-277767090
- PPT w.Z topic 7 2013 sem6Загружено:Liyana Ishak
- Down Syndrome and Role of HomeopathyЗагружено:Saurav Arora
- 394 Hw 2 New SolutionsЗагружено:lucipig
- AccentureЗагружено:Rajat Pani
- Objective TestЗагружено:porntipb
- Thanks to Barry By Thomas Moriarty.docxЗагружено:Tomas Giammarco
- CSIR NET 2013.pdfЗагружено:Sathish Kumar
- Probability Basics (1)Загружено:Dryden Trivett
- Probability and StatisticsЗагружено:Choco Mucho Cruzado
- Ex 1Загружено:Thanh Mai
- Problem Week III a LecЗагружено:maneco
- 11 Maths Notes 16 ProbabilityЗагружено:niteshg11
- Basic Concepts of ProbabilityЗагружено:Shairuz Caesar Briones Dugay
- MIT18_05S14_class1slidesЗагружено:IslamSharaf
- Kuliahke1tambahanPermutasidankombinasi.pptЗагружено:Heri Hadianto
- ProbabilityЗагружено:Bathrinath 007
- ProЗагружено:Pjie Zulkarnain
- it3Загружено:Raquel Gutierrez Fernandez
- Question Bank - CopyЗагружено:ebenesarb
- Elevens LabЗагружено:Skindar Choudhry
- Assignment - Pointers Output and ErrorsЗагружено:Harmandeep Singh Virdee
- 11_maths_notes_16_Probability.pdfЗагружено:S ramesh
- down syndrome article 1Загружено:api-252032417
- down syndromeЗагружено:Jorace Pair Villamil
- Mary.peabody.assignment2Загружено:Mary

- how big is my populationЗагружено:api-269169613
- An Overview and Comparison of Design Strategies for Choice-BasedConjoint AnalysisЗагружено:Larry Ultimate-Henry
- Probability and StatisticsЗагружено:Prakash Dhage
- Ch5Загружено:Memo Yassin
- 89518303 Public Finance and Public Policy Solutions ManualЗагружено:Justin Maillis
- Müller, Thomas and Briegel, Hans (2014) Stochastic libertarianism. How to maintain integrity in action without determinismЗагружено:Tommaso Cimino
- ap statistics 2017-2018 term 2 assignment sohee hanЗагружено:api-369740044
- Nils Bertschinger - Autonomy An Information – Theoretic PerspectiveЗагружено:drleonunes
- Schwarz STATISTICS(cjs) -- 4(Survey sampling)Загружено:api-3793288
- ac3f3a6f73824e98626bb8d6266860e5169cЗагружено:Prakash Raj
- Types of ResearchЗагружено:vishal_000
- 13. Manage-Distinct Path-U.kartheek Chandra PatnaikЗагружено:BESTJournals
- CTF Lecture NotesЗагружено:Deniz Mostarac
- Computational Finance-Lect NotesЗагружено:sudhakara.rr359
- James Ladyman What is a Complex System 1Загружено:Bruno De Bor
- Structural reliability and risk analysisЗагружено:Alexandru Constantinescu
- Lesson4 (2)Загружено:Atul Rai
- Control Charts - General Rules for InterpretationЗагружено:Ur Friend
- The Sphere of ChaosЗагружено:Matt Drew
- Lesson 2-02 Geometric Probability STATЗагружено:allan.manaloto23
- Simulation and Modeling SyllabusЗагружено:Piyush Singhal
- Full Text 01Загружено:huber
- PDF StudyIQ Probability Question Bank for bank po and ssc cgl/ldc/mtsЗагружено:Study IQ
- Approximation of Pi Using the Monte Carlo MethodЗагружено:api-3798769
- notes EAЗагружено:abhas
- Ch05Загружено:liinddoss
- The Law of Large NumbersЗагружено:Michael Latt
- 22-Lecture Notes on Probability Theory and Random ProcessesЗагружено:Ashish Sachan
- StatisticsЗагружено:Charles Akara
- Acceptance Quality LevelsЗагружено:Daud Yogasara