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Started week
Friday AM
Change
Change %
ytd
DJIA
16459.75
16618.5
158.75
0.96%
-6.76%
NASDAQ
4351.61
4811.26
459.65
10.56%
1.79%
RUSSELL 2000
1119.76
1154.55
34.79
3.11%
-4.16%
S&P 500
1965.15
1986.94
21.79
1.11%
-3.50%
58.74%
Stocks Overvalued
41.26%
23.88%
13.47%
SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Change
MTD
YTD
Valuation
Last 12-M
Return
P/E
Ratio
Aerospace
1.77%
-6.98%
-2.20%
9.81% overvalued
-7.34%
20.47
Auto-Tires-Trucks
1.55%
-6.96%
-8.34%
9.59% undervalued
-14.66%
14.74
Basic Materials
3.24%
-4.29%
-15.34%
18.96% undervalued
-37.00%
20.04
Business Services
1.55%
-5.66%
-0.99%
1.85% overvalued
-6.73%
22.96
1.91%
-4.57%
-4.61%
2.33% undervalued
-8.17%
28.28
Construction
2.08%
-5.26%
-4.83%
8.35% undervalued
-5.70%
22.8
Consumer Discretionary
1.48%
-5.24%
1.42%
0.84% undervalued
-7.14%
26.98
Consumer Staples
1.32%
-5.83%
-4.35%
3.57% overvalued
-5.93%
21.27
Finance
1.41%
-4.45%
-2.40%
2.55% undervalued
-5.20%
17
Industrial Products
1.93%
-7.25%
-8.37%
8.54% undervalued
-15.33%
18.16
Medical
1.59%
-6.49%
8.13%
8.89% overvalued
7.64%
31.13
Multi-Sector Conglomerates
1.86%
-7.23%
-8.43%
3.53% undervalued
-10.35%
21.29
Oils-Energy
5.30%
-8.88%
-20.59%
18.29% undervalued
-49.03%
22.18
Retail-Wholesale
1.83%
-5.41%
-6.76%
0.13% undervalued
-0.98%
23.16
Transportation
2.18%
-8.83%
-11.71%
10.09% undervalued
-15.46%
16.56
Utilities
1.68%
-4.65%
-7.38%
3.37% undervalued
-10.26%
20.44
Company Name
Market Price
Valuation
MERC
11.46
-2.06%
10.51%
UFS
DOMTAR CORP
39.13
18.11%
4.54%
IOSP
INNOSPEC INC
47.69
19.86%
11.58%
CE
CELANESE CP-A
59.31
-13.46%
-3.94%
KRA
KRATON PERFORM
20.61
-9.82%
1.78%
Company Name
Market Price
Valuation
MERC
11.46
-2.06%
10.51%
UFS
DOMTAR CORP
39.13
18.11%
4.54%
IOSP
INNOSPEC INC
47.69
19.86%
11.58%
CE
CELANESE CP-A
59.31
-13.46%
-3.94%
KRA
KRATON PERFORM
20.61
-9.82%
1.78%
Company Name
Market Price
Valuation
CE
CELANESE CP-A
59.31
-13.46%
-3.94%
LYB
LYONDELLBASEL-A
85.26
-33.31%
-24.95%
EMN
EASTMAN CHEM CO
72.63
-18.14%
-10.76%
MERC
11.46
-2.06%
10.51%
CMC
COMMERCIAL METL
15.18
-14.64%
-12.91%
Company Name
Market Price
Valuation
AVD
AMER VANGUARD
12.85
56.13%
-2.95%
SIAL
SIGMA ALDRICH
139.65
41.54%
35.21%
CYT
73.85
31.37%
43.30%
BVN
BUENAVENTUR-ADR
6.21
28.73%
-54.87%
CHMT
CHEMTURA CORP
27.07
27.94%
10.22%
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ValuEngine Forecast
Target
Price*
Expected
Return
1-Month
114.05
1.00%
3-Month
114.90
1.75%
6-Month
116.61
3.26%
1-Year
126.44
11.98%
2-Year
120.75
6.94%
3-Year
97.09
-14.02%
3.23% undervalued
Valuation Rank(?)
1.00%
48
97
12-M Return
10.56%
Momentum Rank(?)
Sharpe Ratio
0.99
93
23.88%
92
80
Volatility
24.09%
Volatility Rank(?)
8.17%
657.73
Size Rank
12.81
11.84
PEG Ratio
1.57
29
Price/Sales
2.93
Price/Sales Rank(?)
31
Market/Book
5.63
Market/Book Rank(?)
Beta
0.89
Beta Rank
Alpha
0.16
Alpha Rank
67
41
100
81
72
21
50
84
What's Hot
Market Gyrations Impact Potential FED Action?
This week's trading action has unsettled markets and investors, but it may have
led to at least one positive outcome for stocks. At a briefing today for regional
economic conditions, New York Fed Bank Chair--and FOMC member-- William Dudley
told reporters that "at this moment, the decision to begin the normalization process at
the September [FOMC] meeting seems less compelling to me than it did several
weeks ago. But normalization could become more compelling by the time of the
meeting as we get additional information.
That statement is definitely of the "tea-leaves needing to be read" variety, but it
indicates that US markets should continue to trade under the benefit of the Fed's
zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) for a while longer. US short-term rates have hovered
near 0% for most of the past seven years now. This policy provided the only real boost
for the US economy as the fiscal options, controlled by politicians in Washington DC,
were focused on austerity in lieu of a robust stimulus program.
It would seem quite premature to raise rates under the present circumstances,
and with the Fed still responsible for a dual mandate--low inflation AND full
employment--it appears cooler heads will prevail thanks to the "reality" provided by
China and the global market pull back. Dudley referenced this in his remarks by
noting that incoming data suggest the economy continues to grow at a moderate
pace sufficient to cause a gradual tightening of the U.S. labor market but
international developments have increased the downside risk to U.S. economic
growth.
Again, as we have been noting for a while now, the US economy is recovering,
and we see some pressures within the labor market--as evidenced by changes in
employment practices on the part of Wal-Mart, McDonald's et al. We also see a low
level of inflation--bolstered by the cratering of oil and other commodities pricing.
Stocks, despite their recent gyrations, remain the only game in town where
yields are concerned. We recommend investors with the means to weather this storm
stay the course. We do not foresee a long-term issue for the US economy here, and
we note that selling at the bottom of a down turn is often the worst move one can
make. On the other hand, this is a time to tighten up those stop-losses and to stay
attentive.
Here are the primary long and short-side selections and their performance for the
month.
Position
Ticker
Company Name
Entry Price
7/16/15
Exit Price
Change %Change
Sector
Long 1
SPR
SPIRIT AEROSYS
55.49
51.49
-4.00
-7.21
AEROSPACE
Long 1
PLOW
DOUGLAS DYNAMIC
21.27
22.11
0.84
3.95
Long 1
MERC
13.2
10.68
-2.52
-19.09
BASIC MATERIALS
Long 1
CBZ
CBIZ INC
9.85
9.64
-0.21
-2.13
BUSINESS SERVICES
Long 1
MFLX
MULTI-FINELINE
18.72
17.81
-0.91
-4.86
COMPUTERS
TECHNOLOGY
Long 1
BZH
BEAZER HOMES
19.92
17.04
-2.88
-14.46
CONSTRUCTION
Long 1
STRZA
STARZ-LIB CAP-A
44.86
36.86
-8.00
-17.83
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
Long 1
CALM
CAL-MAINE FOODS
53.59
49.67
-3.93
-7.33
CONSUMER STAPLES
Long 1
HRTG
HERITAGE INSUR
25.19
18.36
-6.83
-27.11
FINANCE
Long 1
UEPS
18.49
19.98
1.49
8.06
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
Long 1
NLNK
NEWLINK GENETIC
49.97
47.23
-2.74
-5.48
MEDICAL
-6.61
MULTI-SECTOR
CONGLOM
Long 1
FSS
FED SIGNAL CP
13.95
-0.99
Long 1
PZE
PETROBRAS EGY
Long 1
TA
TRAVELCENTERS
6.32
-0.33
-5.20
OILS ENERGY
15.87
12.04
-3.83
-24.13
RETAIL WHOLESALE
Long 1
CVTI
COVENANT TRANS
Long 1
PCG
PG&E CORP
26.76
22.53
-4.23
-15.81
TRANSPORTATION
51.22
53.08
1.86
3.63
Short 1
AVAV
UTILITIES
AEROVIRONMENT
27.75
24.38
3.37
12.14
AEROSPACE
Short 1
Short 1
NAV
NAVISTAR INTL
19.97
16.48
3.49
17.48
MT
ARCELOR MITTAL
9.38
8.26
1.12
11.94
BASIC MATERIALS
Short 1
MRIN
MARIN SOFTWARE
6.07
3.52
2.55
42.01
BUSINESS SERVICES
Short 1
FUEL
7.47
5.71
1.76
23.56
COMPUTERS
TECHNOLOGY
Short 1
LAYN
LAYNE CHRISTENS
8.7
7.24
1.46
16.78
CONSTRUCTION
Short 1
CZR
CAESARS ENTERTN
6.79
8.02
-1.23
-18.11
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
Short 1
RDEN
ELIZABETH ARDEN
12.71
10.38
2.33
18.33
CONSUMER STAPLES
Short 1
GNW
GENWORTH FINL
7.67
4.59
3.08
40.16
FINANCE
Short 1
CAS
6.01
2.99
3.02
50.25
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
Short 1
RPRX
REPROS THERAPEU
7.71
7.42
0.29
3.76
MEDICAL
MULTI-SECTOR
CONGLOM
Short 1
CODI
COMPASS DIVERSF
Short 1
BTU
PEABODY ENERGY
Short 1
SHLD
SEARS HLDG CP
14.93
16.3
0.16
0.99
1.67
1.78
-0.11
-6.59
OILS ENERGY
23.68
22.64
1.04
4.39
RETAIL WHOLESALE
16.4636
Short 1
DSX
DIANA SHIPPING
7.61
7.1
0.51
6.70
TRANSPORTATION
Short 1
CLNE
6.16
4.02
2.14
34.74
UTILITIES
PORTFOLIO TOTAL
GSPC
S&P500
7.31
2099.6
1970.89
-128.71
-6.13
LONG PORTFOLIO
-8.85
SHORT PORTFOLIO
16.16