8/26/2014

Number Sense
Computations and Benchmarks

This video is designed to

accompany
Module 1
in
Beyond the Numbers
Student-Centered Activities for Learning
Statistical Reasoning
a publication of the Van-Griner Publishing Company

Check the Numbers

An article in the journal Science on insects
attacking plants, mentioned a California field
that produces 750,000 melons per acre
1 acre = 43,560 ft2
750,000 melons/acre = 750,000 melons/43,560
ft2
Thats a little over 17 melons per square foot.

8/26/2014

Percentages or
Absolutes?
Have a look at this flight
table regarding the airport
in Lexington, Kentucky. Is
it fair to say Comair, with
158 on time flights is
much superior to Atlantic
Southeast with only 65?
Probably not. Comair is only on-time 62% of the time
compared to 71% for Atlantic Southeast. Makes obvious
sense to look at rates in this case.

Percentages or
Absolutes?

Baby cured of HIV: What does this

mean for the future of treatment?
Published March 04, 2013
FoxNews.com

Absolute
number cured:

Thats one baby cured

Percent cured:

Thats a 100% success rate.

Details:
impression.

Same regardless, but 100% success rate gives very different

*Unfortunately, in mid-summer 2014 the infection reappeared in the child.

Percentages or
Absolutes?

Maternal Health in the U.S.

It's more dangerous to give birth in the United States than in 49 other countries. AfricanAmerican women are at almost four times greater risk than Caucasian women. A safe pregnancy
is a human right for every woman regardless of race or income.
Maternal mortality ratios have increased from 6.6 deaths per 100,000 live births in 1987 to 13.3
deaths per 100,000 live births in 2006.

Absolute: Thats an increase of 6.7 deaths per 100,000 live births.

Percent: An increase of (13.3/6.6)= 2.02, so just over a 100% increase
since 1987.
Both statistics could be useful. But sometimes one creates a more extreme
picture than does the other. Be wise, be aware.

8/26/2014

On the Campaign Trail

Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani
My chances of surviving prostate cancer in the
United States? Eighty-two percent.
My chances of surviving prostate cancer in
England? Only 44 percent under socialized
medicine.

Had Correct Data

Apparently used data from the year 2000
49 British men in every 100,000 were diagnosed
with prostate cancer, of whom 28 died within five
years about 44 percent.
Similar data in U.S. leads to the 82 percent fiveyear survival rate in the U.S.

Relevant Facts
The PSA was widely used in the U.S. prior to
2014.
Rarely ever used in the U.K.
Prostate cancer often develops slowly.
Early detection in U.S. likely inflating
importance of the five-year survival rates.
How?

8/26/2014

Politicized Inference?
So in the U.S. detection might at 50 and the
patient living to 70.
In the U.K. detection might come at 67 and
the patient lives to 70.
Both have same time of death, but U.S. looks
better using the metric five-year survival
rate.

What Can You Do?

Be alert, and be aware.
Be ready and willing to question what you
read and hear.
Be comfortable with fractions and
percentages.
Be well-versed in some basic benchmarks.

*From Center for Disease Control website

Benchmarks to Know
1. U.S. population is just over 300 million
2. Each year about 4 million babies are born in the
U.S.
3. About 2.4 million Americans die each year
4. Roughly 1 in 4 who die, do so of heart disease
5. Roughly 1 in 4 who die, die from cancer, more or
less.

8/26/2014

Benchmarks to Know
6. About 35,000 die in traffic accidents
7. About 17,000 deaths are homicides
8. About 16,000 deaths are from AIDS
9. There are about 40 million black Americans
10.About 16% of Americans identify as Latino

Useful? How?
Claim has been made that over 4 million women
in the U.S. are battered to death each year by a
spouse or boyfriend.
Is this possible?
Only about 2.4 million people die in the U.S. per
year all together!

One-Sentence Reflection
Competence with fractions,
percentages, and a
knowledge of common
benchmarks go a long way
toward the goal of correctly
forming human inferences
from statistical constructs.