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Security Analysis and Portfolio Management

Term IV Academic Year 2015-2016


PGDM
Faculty:
Telephone:
E-Mail :
Chamber Consultation Hour:

R.K.Arora
128
rkarora@imi.edu
2.30 P.M. -3.30 P.M

Objectives:
1. To provide an in-depth knowledge of techniques of valuing stocks and of
use of fundamental and technical analysis in taking investment decisions.
2. To develop an understanding of how to optimally allocate funds across alternative
(risky) asset classes (e.g., stocks, bonds, etc.) to form an optimal portfolio and how to
optimally allocate wealth between the optimal risky portfolio and a risk-free asset
(such as the Treasury-bill).
3. To develop an understanding of alternative styles of investment management and
alternative methodologies of evaluating portfolio performance.
Pedagogy:
The course will be delivered through a mix of lectures and real-life assignments
involving thorough analysis and presentations.
Evaluation Criteria:
Quizzes (2)
Group Assignments
Mid-term Examination
Term-end Examination

10%
30%
30%
30%

Session plan:
Session
No.
1-2

3-7
8-10
11-16
17-18
19-20

Topic

Readings

Overview of investment process, expected return


and risk of an individual security and portfolio of
securities, measure of risk aversion

BKM:Ch.1,5

Equity Valuation
Fundamental analysis

BKM: Ch.17-19

Case: Beta Management

Case: Citrus Glow

Technical Analysis
BKM: Ch.12
Portfolio Building: Optimal asset allocation using BKM: Ch. 6-8
mean-variance criterion, Single index model
BKM:Ch.24
Portfolio performance measurement
Market organization, Trading procedures
Market efficiency, Behavioral Finance

BKM:Ch.3,11,12

Reading Material:
Text Book:
Bodie, Zvi , Alex Kane et.al. (2009), Investments, Eighth Edition, Tata McGraw- Hill
(Referred to as BKM)
Reference Books:
1. Fischer, Donald E. and Ronald J. Jordan, Security Analysis and Portfolio
Management, Sixth Edition, Pearson/Prentice Hall.(FJ)
2. Reilly, Frank K. and Keith C. Brown (2006), Investment Analysis & Portfolio
Management, Eighth Edition, Thomson South-Western.
3. Alexander, Gordon J; William F.Sharpe and Jaffery V. Bailey, Fundamentals of
Investments, Third Edition, Pearson/Prentice Hall
4. Elton, Edwin J. and Martin J. Gruber, Modern Portfolio Theory and Investment
Analysis, Fifth Edition, John Wiley & Sons.

GROUP ASSIGNMENTS
There are three group assignments. Each assignment will have a weight of 10%. A group
shall not exceed five members.
Assignment 1: Fundamental Analysis
1. Each group will be assigned one industry and the group will perform the industry
analysis in the framework provided herewith. Students can also refer to chapter 17 of
the text book for guidance on industry analysis:
Framework for Industry Analysis
The key characteristics that should be considered in an industry analysis include:
1. Past sales and earning performance
2. Sensitivity to Business Cycle
3. Competitive conditions and barriers to entry
4. Stock prices relative to earnings
5. Stage in industry life cycle
6. Operating leverage
7. Financial leverage
8. Opinion on the investment prospects in the industry
The report on the industry analysis should be no more than 3 pages.
The group will then select one company from the chosen industry and prepare an
analytical report covering, among other things, the following:
a. A brief description of companys history, products, competitive position and future
prospects
b. Analysis of last five years financial statements of the company (refer illustration
given in chapter 19 of your text book)
c. Valuation of stock of the company using approaches outlined in chapter 18 of the
text book.
d. Technical analysis of the company
e. Recommendation relating to investment in the company
Last date of submission: August 1, 2015
Assignment 2: Investment Simulation

Each group will be assigned an initial fund of Rs. 1,000,000. Out of this money Rs.100,
000 each must be invested in an exchange traded fund (ETF) and a corporate bond. The
remaining fund can be invested in a portfolio of stocks. The stocks in the portfolio should
be picked from stocks that are part of Nifty. The portfolios constructed by groups will be
uploaded in the assignment folder by the evening of July 18, 2014 and the portfolio value
will be based on closing stock prices on August11.
In addition, the groups will identify two stocks that will represent their single egg
investment. One of the stocks will be selected based on fundamentals and the other on the
basis of technical analysis. No investment is required in these two stocks. However, their
performance needs to be tracked.
No trading is allowed in the ETF, corporate bond, and the two individual stocks. The
groups can make three revisions in the portfolio. These revisions are to be done at the
closing prices and the revisions are to be uploaded in the assignment folder immediately.
The groups will use Excel to record daily closing prices and all transactions including
price/share, number of shares, date, transaction type (buy or sell), and total amount of
transaction. There will be a transaction fee of 0.5% on all buying and selling transactions.
Unused funds will earn interest at the rate of 9 % p.a.
The investment will continue till the end of the term. At that time, each group will submit
a written report covering the following:
1. Rationale for selection of securities in the portfolio, the ETF, the corporate
bond and the single egg stocks.
2. A comparison of the rate of return, standard deviation, reward to variability and betas
of all investments mentioned in (1) above.
3. Comments on the comparison.
4. Learning from the exercise.
Last date of submission: end of the term.
Assignment 3: Portfolio Optimization
a. Select five companies from the thirty companies comprised in the BSE Sensitive Index
and collect their price data for the last three years from the BSE/NSE website.
b. Calculate the average historical returns, standard deviation of returns and correlation
among returns of these stocks using the price data.

c. Based on the variance-covariance structure of the returns, find out the weights of the
five stocks in the minimum variance efficient (MVE) portfolio of the chosen five
stocks.
d. Calculate the expected return on the MVE portfolio.
e. Increase the expected return on MVE portfolio by small increments and build
up a number (about ten) of efficient portfolios that have the smallest possible standard
deviation for the given expected return
f. Draw an efficient frontier of the efficient portfolios and identify the optimal portfolio
assuming that the investor has a risk-aversion index of 3.
g. Choose correlation coefficients between each pair of stocks. These correlation
coefficients should be smaller in value than the correlation coefficients estimated from
the historical data. Repeat steps (c) through (e) using these correlation coefficients.
h. Choose correlation coefficients between each pair of stocks. These correlation
coefficients should be larger in value than the correlation coefficients estimated from
the historical data. Repeat steps (c) through (e) using these correlation coefficients.
i. Draw three efficient frontiers (one with correlation coefficients derived from historical
data, one with small correlation coefficients and one with large correlation
coefficients) on the same graph. Mark the MVE portfolio on each frontier. Comment
on how the efficient frontier changes with the change in the correlation coefficient
between assets.
Last date of submission: September 1, 2015

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