Making Geography work as an ally to create New History

How India can help and in turn be helped by the

opportunity to reap rich Peace and Development
dividends through integration of South Asia,
South-East Asia and China by linking BCIM, CPEC
and other regional connectivities under the One
Belt One Road vision

Paper presented by
Sudheendra Kulkarni
Chairman, Observer Research Foundation Mumbai
At the conference on the BCIM Corridor
Organised by the World Institute of Economics and Politics
(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, CASS)
Beijing August 24-25, 2015

All history is geographically located and influenced. Similarly, all

geography is shaped, defined and redefined by history.
This is quite evident from the history of Asia the Rise of Old Asia,
its decline in colonial times, and its more recent Rise again.
The dialectic between history and geography manifests itself
through the inter-play of three factors geo-political, geoeconomic and geo-cultural/civilisational.

In the case of Asia, for nearly three centuries, the geo-political

and geo-economic realities were influenced by Europe and the
West in general. However, that is largely a thing of the past. Asia
has begun to write its own destiny now.
The 20th century was marked by Asias liberation from colonial
rule and imperialist subjugation.
The 21st century will be marked by Asias Rise, a process that is
already underway in some parts of the continent. The other
under-developed parts of Asia, especially in South Asia and SouthEast Asia, are waiting to join the story of Asias Rise.
In the 21st century, two phenomena, apparently contradictory but
in reality complementary, are driving change.
One phenomenon is Globalisation. The other is Regional and
Neighbourhood Cooperation.
Although the two may seem opposed to each other, in reality,
they are supporting each other.
More and more countries around the world, and especially in Asia,
are discovering the virtues and benefits of regional and
neighbourhood cooperation both for development and security.
Mahatma Gandhi used to say: I should help my neighbour. My
neighbour should help his neighbour. He in turn should help his
neighbour. In this manner, everyone will help everyone else, and
there will be global cooperation.
A wise Chinese proverb says the same thing in a different way: "A
good neighbour nearby is more useful than a relative far away."
Until now, the political boundaries carved out on the geography of
South Asia and South-East Asia (India and China belong to both
regions) had become barriers for the countries in this vast region
to overcome socio-economic underdevelopment caused by
history.

Now, thanks to advances in trade, transport and technology, the

geography of this region can be made an ally to create new
history of shared prosperity, progress and peace, in addition to
revitalisation of old cultural-spiritual-civilisational ties.
This is what has been envisaged, on a broader expanse of AsiaEurope-Africa connectivity, by the One Belt One Road plan
articulated by Chinas President Mr. Xi Jinping. The Silk Road
Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road are superambitious initiatives to economically integrate large parts of Asia,
and also to extend this integration to many parts of Europe and
Africa.
This vision cannot become a reality in Asia without a strong IndiaChina partnership, at the core of a pan-Asian partnership.
The key to the success of this strategy is the early
implementation of the BCIM (Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar)
Corridor.

BCIM Corridor: A game changer for the region

The Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Corridor

linking Kunming in China to Kolkata in India

The Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) region is one of the

richest in the world in terms of natural, mineral and human
resources. The region covers nearly 1/10 the worlds total area,
about 7.5 per cent of the global GDP (most of it contributed by
China) and is home to 440 million people.
Historically, this region has constituted a common geography in
South and South-East Asia with close socio-economic, racial,
cultural and spiritual interactions.
However, today the BCIM region exhibits two kinds of imbalances
first is internal and the other is with regard to BCIM regions
external geography.
Barring southern China, the rest of the BCIM region is largely
underdeveloped.
Similarly, in comparison to the ASEAN (Association of Southeast
Asian Nations), region which itself is a good demonstration of
the benefits of regional cooperation BICM is far behind in
development.
For example, intra-regional trade among BCIM member states
amounted to only 5 per cent of total BCIM trade in 2012. In
comparison, intra-regional trade within ASEAN is 35 per cent of
the total trade of ASEAN member countries.
Modern
boosted
regional
member

infrastructure connectivity and communication has

intra-regional cooperation within ASEAN, and intracooperation has in turn produced prosperity for all
countries.

By the same logic, the BCIM Corridor will surely help all four
countries to harness existing synergies in trade and socioeconomic cooperation, and become a game changer for the entire
region.

BCIM Corridor: How it will benefit India

That India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world is

widely acknowledged. Along with China, India is one of the main
engines of the global economy.
However, regional imbalances within India continue to be a
serious problem.
The northern, eastern and north-eastern states in India are far
less developed than the western, north-western and southern
states.
Regional disparity in India is most evident in the relative
backwardness of West Bengal, Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh,
Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Sikkim and the seven northeastern states (Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Tripura, Nagaland,
Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh.
There are several reasons for the socio-economic backwardness
of these states. Among them, there are two important reasons,
and the BCIM Corridor will address both of them.
Firstly, after Indias Partition in 1947, Calcutta was cut off from
East Pakistan, which later became Bangladesh, and also from
Indias own north-eastern region. It was also cut off from
Myanmar, Thailand, southern China, etc.
The second reason is that Indias north-eastern region got
geographically isolated from the rest of India on the west and also
from Myanmar, Thailand, southern China, etc., in its eastern
neighbourhood.
The only land connectivity between the rest of India and Indias
north-eastern states is the so-called Chickens Neck Corridor in
the north of West Bengal, which is only 23 km wide.

The narrow 23-km-wide Chickens Neck corridor above

landlocked Bangladesh, linking Indias seven northeastern states with the rest of India
Here is a stark fact. Agartala, the capital of Tripura, which is one
of Indias Seven Sisters in the north east, is 1,650 km from
Kolkata and 2,637 km from New Delhi, if one travels through the
Chickens Neck. In contrast, the distance between Agartala and
Kolkata through Bangladesh is just about 350 km.
Therefore, direct land route between Indias north-eastern states
and the rest of India, through Bangladesh, will greatly reduce the
costs of transport for Indian businesses.

Similarly, Indias north-eastern states have no access to Indias

coastline. However, Tripura's southernmost border town Sabroom
is only 72 km from Chittagong, which is an international sea port
in Bangladesh.
Thus, the BCIM Corridor will provide the much-needed access to
the sea for Indias north-eastern states.
Tourism is another sector that will get a big boost due to the BCIM
Corridor.
Today the total number of foreign tourists coming to all the seven
north-eastern Indian states put together is less than 2,00,000.
Even Bangladesh attracts just about 6,00,000 foreign tourists a
year.
In contrast, Vietnam attracts 2 million foreign tourists, Cambodia
attracts 5 million foreign tourists and Thailand attracts 26 million
foreign tourists.
This clearly shows the enormous benefits that the BCIM Corridor
can bring to Indias north-eastern states, to Kolkata and West
Bengal, through West Bengal to the rest of eastern and northern
India.
Indias north-eastern states are suffering not only from
geographical isolation because of lack of proper infrastructural
connectivity. Geographical isolation has also led to a certain
degree of emotional isolation.
Therefore, the BCIM Corridor is also beneficial to India from the
point of view of Indias national integration.
When there is greater national integration, along with greater
regional integration, it contributes to greater national security.
Therefore, those people in India who oppose the BCIM Corridor
from the national security perspective are totally wrong.

BCIM

Corridor:

How

Bangladesh cooperation

it

will

boost

India-

The benefits of the BCIM Corridor for Bangladesh are self-evident.

Bangladesh is landlocked on three sides by the border with India.
Its only access to the rest of the world is through the sea route.
This has placed a severe constraint on its overall development.
The BCIM Corridor will provide Bangladesh land-route access to
other countries such as Myanmar, China and others in South-East
Asia.
Bangladeshs natural gas reserves are estimated at 200 trillion
cubic feet, the largest supply in the Asia-Pacific. If Bangladesh can
recover all of that, it would make it one of the largest natural gas
producers in the world.
However, the land route to evacuate this gas can be provided
only by India. Fortunately, eastern and north-eastern India is also
in great need of natural gas.
Thus, the BCIM infrastructure corridor can subsequently lead to
BCIM gas pipeline corridor.
Accelerated socio-economic development of Bangladesh (whose
population of 160 million is greater than that of Germany and
France combined) will not only benefit Bangladesh itself, but also
the neighbouring regions of India, China and south-east Asian
nations such as Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, etc.

The need to link BCIM to CPEC, and the need to

extend CPEC to CPAIEC

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor linking Kashgar

with Gwadar port (3,000 kms)
The logic of regional cooperation, which is inherent to the concept
of the BCIM Corridor, suggests that we should be creative,
comprehensive, ambitious and far-sighted in our approach. In
order to involve India more closely into the One Belt One Road
plan, another important initiative is needed.
The BCIM Corridor needs to be extended westwards through India
and connected to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
During Chinese President Mr. Xi Jinpings visit to Pakistan in April
2015, China and Pakistan signed an agreement on CPEC. China
has pledged to invest $46 billion on this project, which is roughly
20 per cent of Pakistan's annual GDP.
I personally welcome this initiative wholeheartedly. I believe that
India too should welcome this initiative.
Pakistans progress and prosperity are good not just for Pakistan,
but also for all its neighbours.

In addition, economic prosperity will help Pakistan tackle many

social and other internal problems.
India would like to see a stable, prosperous, progressive, united
and democratic Pakistan, which is at peace with itself and also at
peace with all its neighbours.
I believe that the CPEC project will help in this goal.
At the same time, I strongly believe that the China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC) needs to be extended into Afghanistan
and India and made CPAIEC (China-Pakistan-Afghanistan-India
Economic Corridor). This will benefit Afghanistan, which is in
urgent need of national reconstruction after several decades of
war.
CPAIEC will also create new connectivities between India and
Pakistan, which also are in urgent need of boosting bilateral trade
and economic cooperation as part of the larger effort to achieve
normalisation of bilateral relations.
CPAIECs connectivities will pass through Kashmir and Punjab, the
two provinces which are today divided between India and
Pakistan. CPAIEC will bring them, and also India and Pakistan,
closer. It will help make the disputed Indo-Pak border in Kashmir
irrelevant. It will also make the remaining stretches of the IndoPak border porous through modern transport and trade
connectivities, both land- and sea-based.
Hence, CPAIECs potential benefits are much more than economic
in nature. It can create a new history of peace between India and
Pakistan on the one hand, and between Pakistan and Afghanistan
on the other.
Secondly, CPAIEC on the western side of India and BCIM on the
eastern side of India should be connected through modern
infrastructure linkages.

It is worth recalling here that Shershah Suri, a 16 th century king

who ruled large parts of north India, had built a nearly 2,500-kmlong road, later called Grand Trunk Road linking Chittagong in the
south to Kabul in the north west. Today it connects capitals of four
countries Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The linking of BCIM and CPAIEC will revive this connectivity in the
21st century.

Indias Grand Trunk Road: A nearly 2,500-km-long road

was built in the 16th century connecting Chittagong and
Kabul
This will create connectivity between Bangladesh, India and
Pakistan, which, before 1947, were part of one Indian
subcontinent.
In addition, sea transport between Pakistan, western coast of
India, Sri Lanka, eastern coast of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar
should be strengthened.
It is clear that both India and China stand to benefit immensely
from closer integration among countries of South Asia and SouthEast Asia. The Peace and Development dividends for other

countries in the CPAIEC-BCIM framework are also self-evident.

Ultimately, this will benefit more than three billion people.
Needless to add, work should begin with the early implementation
of BCIM.
Fortunately, consensus among the governments of Bangladesh,
China, India and Myanmar to build this corridor is growing.

Security concerns over BCIM and CPAIEC

Critics of the proposal to link CPAIEC and BCIM will pose security
concerns to scuttle it.
Contrary to the misgivings in certain quarters, the BCIM and
CPEC, far from increasing the security concerns for the countries
in the region, actually reduces them.
There are three solid reasons for this hope.
Firstly, when two big nations such as India and China cooperate in
an infrastructure and economic development project, it provides a
proper balance for smaller countries in the coalition.
Secondly, development through regional cooperation enhances
security for all, rather than endangering it.
For example, when the CPEC, which passes through a part of
Kashmir which is currently governed by Pakistan (and is therefore
opposed by some people in India), is extended into the Indian part
of Kashmir, it will actually help bring the two Kashmirs as well as
India and Pakistan closer through economic and social
integration.
Similarly when the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline (which is a part of
CPEC) is extended into India, it will benefit Indias energy security
immensely.

Joining big and small rivers through a Win-Win

approach favoured by both
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi
Jinping
During his visit to China in May this year, Prime Minister Mr. Narendra
Modi said in his speech at the India-China Business Forum in
Shanghai: Indo-Chinese partnership should and will flourish. I
expect very good outcome from this coming together. We have
complemented each other in the past. We can complement in the
present and future too. As two major economies in Asia, the
harmonious partnership between India and China is essential for
economic development and political stability of the continent.
What Prime Minister Modi calls complementarity, President Xi
Jinping calls the Win-Win approach. Speaking at the annual Boao
Forum conference in March this year -- and the conference itself
was appropriately themed as 'Towards a Community of Common
Destiny and A New Future for Asia' -- President Xi Jinping
repeatedly used the phrase "Win-Win cooperation". Using a vivid
Chinese aphorism, he remarked, "When big rivers have water, the
small ones are filled; and when small rivers have water, the big
ones are filled".
I believe that BCIM and CPIAEC can be likened to joining big and
small rivers, so that all the rivers get filled with prosperity.
Mr. Xi Jinping emphasised: "Only through win-win cooperation can
we make big and sustainable achievements that are beneficial to
all. The old mindset of zero-sum game should give way to a new
approach of win-win and all-win cooperation. The interests of
others must be accommodated while pursuing one's own
interests, and common development must be promoted while
seeking one's own development. The vision of win-win
cooperation not only applies to the economic field, but also to the
political, security, cultural and many other fields. It not only

applies to countries within the region, but also to cooperation with

countries from outside the region."
This is in stark contrast to the manner in which Western
hegemonic powers have traditionally dealt with developing and
under-developed countries -- "We win, You lose".
This is the surest way to ensure that Asias Rise in the 21 st century
becomes the Rise of every Asian country, big as well as small.
(Comments are welcome at sudheenkulkarni@gmail.com)