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EL NIO UPDATE
& Climate Outlook
(September 2015 February 2016)
Presented by:
Anthony Joseph R. Lucero
OIC, CLIMPS
Prepared by:
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
CLIMATOLOGY & AGROMETEOROLOGY DIVISION (CAD)
Updated: 28 August 2015
CONTENTS
Updates on El Nio
Monthly Rainfall Forecast, Temperature and
Tropical Cyclone Forecast (September 2015
February 2016)
Summary
GLOBAL
ADVISORIES
INTERNATIONAL PREDICTION
CENTERS
SUMMARY
The tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean are currently at
moderate El Nio levels.
The majority of ENSO climate models suggest that tropical
temperatures are likely to continue warming, and possibly reach
strong El Nio levels in the coming months.
CPC/ International
Research Institute (IRI)
As of : 20 August 2015
Bureau of Meteorology
(BOM)-Australia
As of : 18 August 2015
Nio
Nio
Nio
Nio
4
3.4
3
1+2
0.9C
2.0C
2.2C
2.0C
1.1C
2.1C
2.2C
1.7C
CLIMATE OUTLOOK
(SEPTEMBER 2015 FEBRUARY 2016)
Updated:
August 28, 2015
SEPTEMBER 2015
Southwest (SW) Monsoon
Intertropical Convergence
Zone (ITCZ)
Low Pressure Area (LPA)
Ridge of High Pressure Area
Tropical Cyclones
September 2015
Forecast (mm)
% Normal
October 2015
Forecast (mm)
% Normal
November 2015
Forecast (mm)
% Normal
December 2015
Forecast (mm)
% Normal
January 2016
Forecast (mm)
% Normal
February 2016
Forecast (mm)
% Normal
SEPTEMBER
OCTOBER
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JANUARY
FEBRUARY
65.7
92.1
119.5
73.5
44.3
100.1
75.4
16.7
15.3
64.5
106.6
32.8
42.9
90.6
97.2
68.9
67.0
94.2
3.5
5.3
2.2
4.8
17.7
1.8
4.5
5.8
14.7
11.8
27.4
9.7
51.4
68.0
102.6
64.6
49.4
97.7
34.1
63.3
30.0
56.7
115.3
37.1
32.8
15.2
67.4
69.4
60.2
26.2
8.7
5.0
0.7
9.8
8.3
1.9
2.8
10.9
15.3
64.9
41.8
1.9
66.6
27.1
42.4
115.3
91.7
44.5
95.2
39.3
3.4
13.6
54.8
50.2
39.1
62.4
55.2
133.8
53.2
30.6
8.2
20.6
133.7
54.9
38.7
22.2
43.0
72.5
43.7
30.5
56.1
66.7
55.8
47.1
51.8
49.3
64.5
59.7
58.5
9.5
24.1
11.0
10.7
7.1
12.6
27.9
41.6
56.0
44.4
52.3
53.9
52.1
62.3
21.7
17.5
11.4
17.9
14.6
15.1
30.7
67.0
5.0
8.8
26.2
18.9
44.7
45.5
5.9
12.7
6.7
2.2
0.1
1.5
56.5
50.9
29.5
29.3
8.3
13.2
27.4
91.5
66.6
58.1
54.9
75.2
7.7
14.3
28.9
41.6
40.1
71.7
32.2
28.8
44.0
55.2
55.0
26.1
16.7
14.7
39.4
54.0
55.8
30.1
2.9
53.2
41.6
25.2
38.8
33.5
58.1
66.0
63.0
46.3
45.1
71.3
26.6
11.6
18.4
30.4
45.4
33.2
34.2
26.0
29.6
40.0
32.4
28.0
23.0
35.5
17.7
63.2
36.0
36.7
31.9
14.0
57.3
31.6
39.9
42.7
10.8
75.7
70.4
67.2
40.1
77.5
74.6
29.7
18.2
20.4
18.4
26.3
21.7
60.6
61.4
59.2
61.1
65.5
68.6
52.2
46.5
47.2
39.9
49.6
56.6
51.4
60.8
53.8
26.2
13.9
31.0
41.0
54.9
45.7
50.0
37.2
40.9
PROVINCE
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
AKLAN
ANTIQUE
CAPIZ
GUIMARAS
ILOILO
NEGROS ISLAND REGION
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL
NEGROS ORIENTAL
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
BOHOL
CEBU
SIQUIJOR
REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN
EASTERN SAMAR
LEYTE
NORTHERN SAMAR
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR)
SOUTHERN LEYTE
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY
REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
BUKIDNON
CAMIGUIN
LANAO DEL NORTE
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
MISAMIS ORIENTAL
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
CAMPOSTELA VALLEY
DAVAO
DAVAO DEL SUR
DAVAO ORIENTAL
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
SOUTH COTABATO
COTABATO
SARANGANI
SULTAN KUDARAT
REGION XIII- CARAGA
AGUSAN DEL NORTE
AGUSAN DEL SUR
SURIGAO DEL NORTE
SURIGAO DEL SUR
ARMM
BASILAN
MAGUINDANAO
LANAO DEL SUR
SULU
SEPTEMBER
OCTOBER
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
JANUARY
FEBRUARY
54.3
56.9
64.3
65.1
63.6
19.0
18.0
19.1
28.6
22.8
21.1
28.7
29.0
48.6
38.1
23.4
20.6
28.2
30.8
28.5
20.6
7.3
24.0
5.7
13.6
34.0
31.2
33.2
33.4
33.5
67.3
81.9
39.3
35.3
47.9
50.3
39.2
34.0
16.9
16.8
30.8
42.4
64.0
55.9
91.8
73.3
56.7
61.8
51.1
43.2
53.0
53.8
47.0
43.2
8.6
28.4
13.8
38.0
40.3
41.2
56.6
58.8
56.5
59.1
58.9
64.1
41.6
47.5
39.3
22.6
42.9
44.3
67.9
50.6
56.3
72.0
63.9
59.2
65.9
37.6
65.8
59.6
54.4
69.0
24.2
17.7
36.2
5.0
15.7
21.7
40.0
29.6
43.4
30.2
31.3
46.4
57.1
47.9
48.1
31.2
36.0
26.6
52.2
55.0
54.4
57.3
60.1
56.8
28.5
35.0
32.8
46.1
47.7
51.3
83.1
87.1
70.7
67.8
89.0
93.5
98.8
79.7
66.5
105.7
64.8
47.1
41.5
49.3
46.5
45.6
62.9
58.6
65.6
59.1
42.8
0.3
37.2
30.9
16.3
75.3
33.1
34.4
31.8
43.3
76.8
79.8
83.6
82.5
73.3
83.3
87.0
71.9
88.7
91.5
74.0
78.9
69.6
55.6
51.4
76.9
48.2
46.7
47.4
51.5
91.3
95.3
67.2
78.7
47.7
73.6
54.7
36.3
58.4
81.2
63.2
48.4
68.9
71.6
64.7
75.0
48.5
41.6
54.3
45.5
51.6
54.2
47.3
56.8
59.7
74.5
52.1
69.0
62.7
65.0
80.4
70.3
81.6
73.8
75.0
66.6
94.8
91.4
85.0
84.1
76.9
71.3
85.8
89.1
13.3
34.7
30.5
39.6
84.1
92.5
78.7
82.9
48.1
41.6
72.5
49.4
24.2
53.8
83.4
24.7
34.5
72.9
45.8
30.3
45.1
44.1
49.7
37.1
22.7
57.5
44.6
17.9
54.7
71.5
47.7
54.0
Updated:
August 28, 2015
Drought - three (3) consecutive months of way below normal (>60% reduction from
average)
or
five (5) consecutive months of below normal (21%-60% reduction from average)
rainfall condition.
VISAYAS (3)
CAPIZ, CEBU
MINDANAO (1)
NORTH COTABATO
VISAYAS (5)
MINDANAO
(11)
VISAYAS (1)
BOHOL
MINDANAO (6)
VISAYAS (3)
MINDANAO (4)
VISAYAS (13)
AKLAN,ANTIQUE,CAPIZ,GUIMARAS,ILOILO, NEGROS
OCCIDENTAL,BOHOL,CEBU,EASTERN SAMAR,
LEYTE,NORTHERN SAMAR,SAMAR (WESTERN
SAMAR), SOUTHERN LEYTE
MINDANAO (8)
BENGUET, CAGAYAN
MINDANAO (4)
VISAYAS (16)
MINDANAO
(14)
SEVERITY OF DROUGHT*
SEVERITY OF DROUGHT
September 2015 February 2016
EXTREME DRUGHT
SEVERE DROUGHT
MODERATE DROUGHT
How severe?
2015)
(15-22oC)
(20-32oC)
(22.5-33oC)
(22.5-33oC)
(18-29.5oC)
(15-23.5oC)
(20-33.5oC)
(22.5-33oC)
(23-33oC)
(17-30oC)
(14.5-23.5oC)
(17.5-33.5oC)
(23-32oC)
(22.5-33.5oC)
(17.5-30.5oC)
DRY DAYS
FORECAST
MONTH
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN2016
ARMM
CAR
22
22
24
27
30
NCR
13
23
25
28
30
NIR
6
24
27
30
29
R01
19
21
24
26
29
R02
9
25
28
31
31
R03
18
22
19
24
25
R04-A
8
25
27
29
28
R04-B
16
22
19
20
22
R05
22
23
23
25
28
R06
23
20
15
16
20
R07
23
21
22
25
30
R08
24
21
23
24
27
R09
25
17
14
14
18
R10
23
22
20
24
28
R11
20
18
22
24
27
R12
24
22
21
23
24
R13
23
23
23
27
28
22
17
17
16
17
Forecast
2 to 4
2 or 3
1 or 2
0 or 1
0 or 1
0 or 1
SUMMARY
Consensus ENSO prediction indicate continuation of strong El
Nio conditions during the August-October 2015 season in
progress, with the event lasting into MAM 2016.
Significant reduction in rainfall is predicted beginning
September 2015 to February 2016 over most parts of the
country;
Moderate to severe drought conditions will be likely during the
forecast period;
Slightly warmer than average temperature is expected during
the forecast period; slightly cooler than average over
mountainous Luzon;
SUMMARY
Drought / Dry Spell Outlook for September 2015 as of 25 August 2015 rainfall
assessment:
o 13 provinces likely to experience dry condition;
o 21 provinces likely to experience dry spell;
o 6 provinces likely to experience drought
OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES SEPTEMBER 2015
VISAYAS (3)
CAPIZ, CEBU
MINDANAO (1)
NORTH COTABATO
VISAYAS (5)
MINDANAO (11)
LUZON (5)
VISAYAS (1)
BOHOL
SUMMARY
Drought / Dry Spell Outlook at the end of Dec. 2015
o 9 provinces likely to experience dry condition;
o 14 provinces likely to experience dry spell;
o 46 provinces likely to experience drought
OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES END OF YEAR 2015
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION
LUZON (3)
MINDANAO (6)
LUZON (7)
VISAYAS (3)
MINDANAO (4)
LUZON (25)
VISAYAS (13)
AKLAN,ANTIQUE,CAPIZ,GUIMARAS,ILOILO, NEGROS
OCCIDENTAL,BOHOL,CEBU,EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, NORTHERN SAMAR,SAMAR
(WESTERN SAMAR), SOUTHERN LEYTE
MINDANAO (8)
SUMMARY
Drought / Dry Spell Outlook at the end of forecast period (Feb. 2016)
o 2 provinces likely to experience dry condition;
o 1 province likely to experience dry spell;
o 65 provinces likely to experience drought, some of which might suffer
moderate to severe drought.
OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
END OF FEBRUARY 2016
PROVINCES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITION
MINDANAO (1)
BENGUET, CAGAYAN
MINDANAO (4)
LUZON (35)
VISAYAS (16)
MINDANAO (14)
Use water
wisely!
MARAMING
SALAMAT!
- Positive SSTA strengthened and extended from the South American coast line to the central equatorial Pacific in
the last three months.
- From May to July, negative OLR anomalies persisted over the central and eastern Pacific and westerly low-level
winds prevailed across most of the equatorial Pacific.
55
1997
2015
56
MJJ 1982
MJJ 1997
MJJ 2015
Actual Rainfall in mm. & % of Normal for Nov 2014 June 2015
Actual Rainfall
Observed (mm)
% Normal
Actual Rainfall
Observed (mm)
% Normal