Oil Markets Update
Crude Highlights
SICO
Research
www.sicobahrain.com
Ankit Gupta
Tel. (973)1751 5000 (ext 5063)
ankit.gupta@sicobahrain.com
Oil Markets Update
22 February 2010
 WTI crude oil spot prices averaged USD 78.33/bbl in January 2010,
USD 4.0/bbl higher than the prior month’s average. OPEC reference
basket averaged USD 76.01/bbl during January 2010, an increase of 3%
over the previous month.
 Global oil demand is expected to increase during 2010 after two years of
consecutive declines. Although all the major parties we follow (EIA, IEA
and OPEC) have a consensus view that 2010 growth would be fuelled by
Non-OECD economies; there is a considerable divergence in the
expected growth magnitude. The IEA remains the most bullish among
the three, expecting demand to grow by 1.57 mn bbl/d, while OPEC has
the most conservative view with an expected growth of 0.8 mn bbl/d.
MoM, EIA and IEA increased their 2010 demand forecasts by 0.1 mn
bbl/d and 0.17 mn bbl/d respectively, while OPEC demand forecasts
remain unchanged.
 OPEC expects that call for OPEC crude would average at 28.8 mn bbl/d
in 2010, compared to 28.7 mn bbl/d supplied during 2009. OPEC’s views
on demand suggest that it is unlikely that the organization would tend
to change its current production quota of 24.8 mn bbl/d in its next
meeting scheduled on March 17, 2010. OPEC members compliance to
their stipulated quota increased to 57.3% in January 2010, from 57.0%
the previous month.
 IEA expects global refinery throughput at 72.6 mn bbl/d for 1Q10
compared to 72.3 mn bbl/d during 4Q09 and 70.9 mn bbl/d during 1Q09
respectively.
Regional Developments
 Crude oil production from Rumaila oil field in southern Iraq is expected
to increase by 110k bbl/d by July/Aug 2010 from current production of
1.06 mn bbl/d. (Mr. Abdul Mahdy al-Ameedi, Head – Iraqi oil ministry).
 Abu Dhabi plans to raise sustainable onshore crude oil production
capacity to 1.8 mn bbl/d by 2017 from a current level of 1.4 mn bbl/d.
 Kuwait aims to boost crude oil output capacity to 4 million barrels a day
by 2020 from its current capacity of 2.3 mn bbl/d. (Mr. Mohammad A.
Husain, Kuwait Oil Company).
 Dubai announced a new oilfield discovery in the east of the Rashid
oilfield. The emirate did not furnish any details about the reserve size
and/or distance of the new discovery from the Rashid field.
 Oman plans to increase its oil output to about 900k bbl/d within two
years from its current level of about 850k bbl/d. The sultanate produced
about 812k bbl/d oil during 2009, and plans to produce 860k bbl/d oil
during 2010 ( +6% YoY). (Mr. Nasser bin Khamis al- Jashmi, Under-
secretary- Oman oil ministry)
 OPEC members added 1.5 mn bbl/d of net crude and liquids capacity
during 2009, and are expected to further increase capacity by 12 mn
bbl/d over the next five years. Given the significant expansions, the
federation expects to maintain a spare capacity of over 6 mn bbl/d.
Additionally, OPEC members plan to invest USD 40 billion in
downstream operations in member countries by 2015. (HE Abdalla S. El-
Badri, OPEC Secretary General)
© SICO 2010 All Rights Reserved Page 1 of 12
Attention is drawn to the disclaimer and other information on Page 12
Oil Markets Update 22 February 2010

Exhibit 1: Price Monitor

Crude (USD/bbl) Current Price 1 Month 1 Year Average price
MoM(%) YoY(%) YoY(%)
2/20/2010 Ago Ago 2010YTD 2009YTD
WTI 79.8 75.8 5.3% 39.4 102.4% 76.9 40.5 90%
Brent 78.3 74.3 5.4% 41.5 88.6% 75.4 44.8 68%
OPEC Ref. Basket 74.5 74.5 -0.1% 39.2 90.2% 74.4 41.4 79%
Arab Light 77.4 75.0 3.1% 41.5 86.4% 75.5 43.9 72%
Gas (USD/mmbtu)
Nymex HH 5.1 5.5 -8.0% 4.2 20.4% 5.7 5.0 14%
ZEEBRUGGE Gas 5.2 5.5 -5.1% 5.5 -4.4% 5.9 8.6 -32%
NBP Gas 5.4 5.5 -1.6% 5.4 1.3% 6.1 8.4 -28%
Source: Bloomberg, SICO Research

Exhibit 2: Historical and Price Forecasts

(USD/bbl unless mentioned) 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10E 2Q10E 3Q10E 4Q10E 2009 2010 2011
WTI 43.2 59.7 68.1 75.9 75.9 76.4 79.4 81.3 61.8 77.9 88.6
YoY(%) -56% -52% -43% 31% 76% 28% 17% 7% -38% 26% 14%
Brent 45.4 59.5 68.5 75.1 74.8 75.8 77.9 80.9 62.2 77.1 87.1
YoY (%) -53% -51% -41% 34% 65% 27% 14% 8% -36% 24% 13%
Nymex HH Gas (USD/mmbtu) 4.6 3.7 3.1 4.3 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.4 3.9 6.1 6.6
YoY (%) -47% -67% -65% -33% 16% 44% 84% 49% -56% 57% 7%
Source: Bloomberg, SICO Research

Exhibit 3: WTI and Dollar Index Exhibit 4: WTI - Spot versus Futures
Spread - 3M - Spot (RHS) Spread - 6M - Spot (RHS)
90 8
160 WTI Spot- USD/bbl (LHS) Dollar Index (RHS) 95 WTI -USD/bbl (LHS)
7
140 90 80
6
120 85
70 5
100
80 4
80 60
75 3
60
2
40 70 50
1
20 65
40 -
- 60 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10
Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10

Exhibit 5: CFTC Non- Commercial Crude Net Long and WTI Exhibit 6: CFTC Non- Commercial NG Net Long and HH Gas
CFTC Non- Commercial NG net (LHS) Nymex HH - USD/mmbtu (RHS)
CFTC Non- Commercial Crude net (LHS) WTI- USD/bbl (RHS)
160,000 85 (125,000) 7.0
140,000 80 (130,000)
120,000 (135,000) 6.0
75 (140,000)
100,000
70 (145,000) 5.0
80,000 (150,000)
65
60,000 (155,000) 4.0
40,000 60 (160,000)
(165,000) 3.0
20,000 55
(170,000)
- 50 (175,000) 2.0
01-Dec-09
08-Dec-09
15-Dec-09
22-Dec-09

12-Jan-10
19-Jan-10
26-Jan-10
29-Dec-09
05-Jan-10
06-Oct-09

27-Oct-09
13-Oct-09
20-Oct-09
22-Sep-09
29-Sep-09

03-Nov-09
10-Nov-09
17-Nov-09
24-Nov-09

02-Feb-10
09-Feb-10
16-Feb-10

08-Dec-09

22-Dec-09
29-Dec-09
01-Dec-09

15-Dec-09

05-Jan-10
12-Jan-10
19-Jan-10
26-Jan-10
06-Oct-09

20-Oct-09
27-Oct-09
13-Oct-09

03-Nov-09
10-Nov-09
17-Nov-09
24-Nov-09
22-Sep-09

02-Feb-10
09-Feb-10
29-Sep-09

16-Feb-10

Source: Bloomberg, SICO Research

Oil Markets Update Page 2 of 12

Oil Markets Update 22 February 2010

Exhibit 7: Global Oil Supply and Demand (mn bbl/d)

Demand 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10E 2Q10E 3Q10E 4Q10E 2009 2010E 2011E
OECD 46.4 44.4 44.9 46.1 46.4 44.6 45.1 46.2 45.4 45.6 46.0
YoY -5.3% -6.3% -3.8% -2.7% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% -4.5% 0.3% 1.0%
Non-OECD 37.0 39.3 39.4 39.0 38.8 40.2 40.1 39.9 38.7 39.7 40.9
YoY -2.3% 0.8% 1.9% 4.6% 4.8% 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% 1.2% 2.7% 2.8%
Total Oil demand 83.4 83.6 84.3 85.1 85.2 84.8 85.2 86.0 84.1 85.3 86.9
YoY -4.0% -3.1% -1.2% 0.5% 2.1% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% -2.0% 1.4% 1.8%
Supply
OECD 21.2 20.7 20.8 21.2 20.9 20.7 20.4 20.6 21.0 20.7 20.2
YoY -0.7% -1.6% 1.9% 1.1% -1.2% 0.1% -1.6% -2.8% 0.2% -1.4% -2.3%
Non-OECD 62.3 62.8 63.7 63.9 64.5 64.8 65.0 65.3 63.2 64.9 66.4
YoY -3.4% -2.7% -1.9% 0.0% 3.6% 3.1% 2.1% 2.1% -2.0% 2.7% 2.3%
OPEC Crude 28.9 28.9 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.7 29.6 29.1 29.5 29.9
YoY -7.8% -8.1% -7.4% -4.4% 1.6% 1.5% 1.1% 0.9% -6.9% 1.3% 1.5%
OPEC other liquids 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 4.8 5.4 6.1
YoY 2.3% 7.5% 9.8% 10.9% 13.7% 12.0% 10.9% 14.9% 7.7% 12.9% 12.5%
Total Oil Supply 83.4 83.5 84.4 85.1 85.4 85.5 85.4 85.9 84.1 85.6 86.6
YoY -2.7% -2.4% -1.0% 0.2% 2.4% 2.4% 1.2% 0.9% -1.5% 1.7% 1.2%
Inventory Draws (mn bbls)
Total OECD 0.00 0.09 (0.15) (0.04) (0.22) (0.74) (0.20) 0.16 (0.02) (0.25) 0.31
OCED commercial inventories 2740 2751 2773 2686 2685 2738 2749 2723 2686 2723 2675
Demand Cover (Days) 59.1 62.0 61.8 58.3 57.9 61.4 61.0 59.0 58.3 59.0 58.1
Price (USD/bbl) 42.9 59.5 68.2 76.1 76.8 80.0 81.0 81.3 61.7 79.8 83.5
Source: EIA, SICO Research

Exhibit 8: Oil Demand – Major Regional Trend Exhibit 9: Oil Supply – Major Regional Trend
Middle East FSU
2011 2011
India China
2010 Russia 2010
North Sea
2009 Brazil 2009
China US
Japan OPEC other Liquids
Europe OPEC Crude
US
Non-OECD
Non-OECD
Total
OECD
Total OECD

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2

Source: EIA Note: All figures in mn bbl/d

Exhibit 10: Global Oil Demand and Supply Estimates

2010 Growth Growth Non-OPEC Growth (mn Growth 2010
EIA and IEA revised
Demand (mn bbbl/d) (YoY %) Supply bbbl/d) (YoY %) GDP
upwards 2010
EIA 85.3 1.2 1.4% 50.66 0.43 0.9% Growth
-
growth estimates by
0.1 mn bbl/d and IEA 86.47 1.57 1.8% 51.6 0.12 0.4% 3.9%
0.17 mn bbl/d OPEC 85.12 0.8 0.9% 51.28 0.33 0.6% 3.4%
Average 85.63 1.19 1.4% 51.18 0.29 0.6% 3.7%
Source: EIA, IEA, OPEC, IMF, SICO Research

Oil Markets Update Page 3 of 12

Oil Markets Update 22 February 2010

Exhibit 11: Oil Demand – OECD versus Non-OECD (mn bbl/d)

Global demand OECD Demand) Non-OECD Demand
declined by 0.74 mn 100 OECD growth(%) Global growth (%) 6%
bbls/d MoM during
4%
Jan 2010 driven 80
primarily by 0.69 2%
mn bbls/d MoM 60
decline in OECD 0%
countries. 40
-2%
20 -4%

0 -6%
Aug-08

Aug-09
Jun-09

Oct-09
Jun-08

Oct-08
May-08

May-09
Nov-08

Nov-09
Jul-09
Feb-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Feb-09

Sep-09
Mar-09
Mar-08
Apr-08

Dec-08

Dec-09
Apr-09
Jan-08

Jan-10
Jan-09
Exhibit 12: Oil Demand – OECD versus Non-OECD

OECD (% global demand) Non-OECD (% global demand)

Global CAGR 100% OECD growth(%) Non OECD growth (%) 8%
(2000-09) oil demand Global growth (%)
grew by +1.0%; 6%
80%
OECD growth at 4%
-0.3%; Non-OECD
60% 2%
growth at +3.3%
Global demand 40% 0%
expected to grow by -2%
+1.6% over 2009-11; 20%
OECD growth at -4%
+0.6% and Non- 0% -6%
OECD growth at
1993

1995
1996

1998
1999

2001
2002

2004
2005

2007
2008

2010
2011
1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

+2.6%

Exhibit 13: MoM Oil Demand – Major Regions (mn bbl/d)

Global Demand Middle East Asia (ex Japan,China) US China Japan

Japan demand 3
declined 0.22 mn
2
bbls/d MoM in Jan
2010 while Chinese 1
demand was
0
increased slightly
(0.05 mn bbls/d) -1
MoM. Asia (ex
-2
China, Japan)
demand increased -3
by 0.13 mn bbls/d
Nov-08

Nov-09
Feb-08

Sep-08

Feb-09

Sep-09
Apr-08

Dec-08

Apr-09

Dec-09
Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10
Aug-08

Aug-09
Jun-08

Oct-08

Jun-09

Oct-09
May-08

May-09
Jul-08

Jul-09
Mar-08

Mar-09

MoM in Jan 2010.

Source: EIA, SICO Research

Oil Markets Update Page 4 of 12

Oil Markets Update 22 February 2010

Exhibit 14: MoM Oil Supply – Global Supply vs OPEC Crude (mn bbl/d)
OPEC supply increased to 34.4 33 OPEC Crude Global Oil Supply 87
mn bbl/d (+.26 mn bbl/d) in Jan 32 86
2010 .OPEC supply expected to
31 85
increase further amid further
decline in quota compliance and 30 84
higher NGL production. 29 83
28 82
27 81

Nov-08

Nov-09
Feb-08

Sep-08

Feb-09

Sep-09
Apr-08

Apr-09

Dec-09
Dec-08
Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10
Aug-08

Aug-09
Jun-08

Oct-08

Jun-09

Oct-09
May-09
May-08

Jul-09
Jul-08

Mar-09
Mar-08

OPEC crude supply increased to Exhibit 15: YoY Oil Supply – OPEC : Crude and NGLs (mn bbl/d)
29.1 mn bbl/d in 2009 from 2000
level of 28.2 mn bbl/d; expected OPEC Crude OPEC NGLs OPEC Supply (% global supply)
40 43%
to increase further to 29.9 mn
42%
bbl/d by 2011. OPEC NGLs supply
30 41%
expected to increase to 6.1 mn
40%
bbl/d by 2011 from 2009 levels
of 4.8 mn bbl/d. 20 39%
38%
OPEC accounted for 40.3% of 10 37%
global crude supply in 2009; 36%
expected to increase to 41.6% in 0 35%
2011.
1994
1995
1996
1997

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1998
1999
2000

2009
2010
2011
Exhibit 16: YoY Oil Supply – Non OPEC Crude (mn bbl/d)
Non- OPEC oil supply at 50.3 in Non OPEC Crude Non OPEC Supply (% global supply)
60 64%
2009 from 2000 levels of 46.6
mn bbl/d; expected to increase 62%
to 50.5 mn bbl/d in 2011. During 40
2009, Non-OPEC supply 60%
increased 0.56 mn bbl/d YOY
20
while Non-OPEC supply declined 58%
1.83 mn bbl/d YoY.
0 56%
1994
1995
1996
1997

1999
2000
2001

2004
2005
2006

2009
2010
2011
1998

2002
2003

2007
2008

Exhibit 17: MoM Oil Supply Growth – Major Regions (mn bbl/d)
Global Supply OPEC Crude OPEC NGLs Non-OPEC
2.00
Global supply increased to 85.15 1.50
mn bbl/d (+ 0.31 mn bbl/d MoM) 1.00
in Jan 2010; increase driven 0.50
primarily by increase in OPEC 0.00
crude supply (+0.2 mn bbl/d (0.50)
MoM). (1.00)
(1.50)
(2.00)
Aug-08

Aug-09
Oct-08

Jun-09

Oct-09
Jun-08

May-09
May-08

Nov-08

Nov-09
Jul-08

Jul-09
Feb-08

Sep-08

Feb-09

Sep-09
Mar-08

Mar-09
Apr-08

Apr-09

Dec-09
Dec-08
Jan-08

Jan-10
Jan-09

Source: EIA, SICO Research

Oil Markets Update Page 5 of 12

Oil Markets Update 22 February 2010

Exhibit 18: OPEC Production (‘000 bbl/d)

Crude Production Change Quota Spare 2010 YTD YOY
Capacity
Jan-10 Dec-09 (MoM) Act. Var.(+/-) Capacity Production Change
Saudi Arabia 8,150 8,180 (30) 8,051 99 11,500 3,350 8,150 1.6%
UAE 2,280 2,270 10 2,223 57 2,650 370 2,280 -0.4%
Kuwait 2,260 2,250 10 2,222 38 2,650 390 2,260 -0.9%
Qatar 795 785 10 731 64 900 105 795 9.7%
Iran 3,805 3,795 10 3,336 469 4,000 195 3,805 0.7%
Iraq 2,315 2,350 (35) - 2,500 185 2,315 -2.1%
Algeria 1,295 1,270 25 1,202 93 1,400 105 1,295 1.6%
Angola 1,870 1,885 (15) 1,517 353 2,050 180 1,870 7.5%
Libya 1,525 1,520 5 1,469 56 1,785 260 1,525 -6.4%
Ecuador 470 470 0 434 36 500 30 470 -1.1%
Nigeria 2,025 2,005 20 1,673 352 2,500 475 2,025 11.9%
Venezuela 2,165 2,220 (55) 1,986 179 2,400 235 2,165 0.7%
1,796
Total OPEC Crude 28,955 29,000 (45) 34,835 28,955 1.4%
Total OPEC ex Iraq 26,640 26,650 (10) 24,845 32,335
OPEC Quota Compliance 57.2%
OPEC Spare Capacity 5,880
Spare Capacity (% global demand) 6.9%
Oman 820 820 0 820 5.0%
Bahrain 185 185 0 185 0.0%
Total GCC Crude 14,490 14,490 0 14,490 1.4%
Source: Bloomberg, SICO Research
Exhibit 19: OPEC ex Iraq – Production and Quota Compliance
OPEC ex Iraq Crude Production ('000 bbl/d) OPEC Quota Compliance (%)
27,500 110%

27,000 100%

26,500 90%
80%
26,000
70%
25,500
60%
25,000
50%
24,500 40%
24,000 30%
Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10

Source: Bloomberg, SICO Research

Oil Markets Update Page 6 of 12

Oil Markets Update 22 February 2010

OPEC – Country-wise Production and Compliance (‘000 bbl/d)

Exhibit 20: OPEC ex Iraq - Production and Quota Exhibit 21: Saudi Arabia - Production and Quota

31,000 Production Quota 10,000 Production Quota

9,500
29,000
9,000
27,000 8,500
8,000
25,000
7,500
23,000 7,000

Exhibit 22: UAE - Production and Quota Exhibit 23: Kuwait - Production and Quota

2,800 Production Quota 2,800 Production Quota

2,600 2,600

2,400 2,400

2,200 2,200

2,000 2,000

Exhibit 24: Qatar - Production and Quota Exhibit 25: Iran - Production and Quota

900 Production Quota 4,200 Production Quota

850 4,000
800 3,800
750 3,600
700 3,400
650 3,200
600 3,000

Exhibit 26: Algeria - Production and Quota Exhibit 27: Angola - Production and Quota

1,500 Production Quota 2,000 Production Quota

1,400
1,800
1,300
1,600
1,200
1,100 1,400

1,000 1,200

Source: Bloomberg

Oil Markets Update Page 7 of 12

Oil Markets Update 22 February 2010

Exhibit 28: Ecuador - Production and Quota Exhibit 29: Libya - Production and Quota
550 Production Quota 2,000 Production Quota
1,800
500
1,600
1,400
450
1,200

400 1,000

Exhibit 30: Nigeria - Production and Quota Exhibit 31: Venezuela - Production and Quota
2,500 Production Quota 3,500 Production Quota

3,000
2,000
2,500

1,500 2,000

1,500
1,000

Source: Bloomberg, SICO Research

Oil Markets Update Page 8 of 12

Oil Markets Update 22 February 2010

Inventories and Spare Capacity

Exhibit 32: OECD Commercial Inventories - Demand Cover (Days)

OECD commercial
66
inventories
increased by 2 mn 64
bbls MoM to 2,688
Crude Imventory (Days)

62
2 0 10
mn bbls; demand 60 2009
cover at 58 days
58
compared to 5-year 5 Year avg.
average of 54 days. 56
54
52
50
48
46
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Exhibit 33: Spare Capacity – OPEC and Saudi Arabia (mn bbls)

Saudi Spare Capacity OPEC Spare Capacity WTI Crude- (USD/bbl) - RHS
6 140
Saudi spare capacity
increased to 3.8 mn 5 120
bbls during Dec 09
compared to 2.1 mn 4 100
bbls in Dec 08. Saudi
3 80
spare capacity
expected to increase 2 60
further during 2010
amid expected high 1 40
quota compliance.
0 20

Exhibit 34: Spare Capacity – Long term trend (mn bbls)

OPEC Spare Capacity Spare Capacity (% global demand)

OPEC spare capacity 6 5.5 5.7 8%
at 4.36 mn bbls at 5.2
5.0 7%
FY09 end; expected 5 4.4
4.1 6%
to increase further
4
to 5.66 mn bbls in 3.1 3.0 3.1
3.3
3.1
5%
2011 – equivalent to 2.8
3 4%
6.5% of 2011 global 1.9 2.1
3%
oil demand. 2 1.5 1.5
1.3
1.0 2%
1
1%
0 0%
1994

1995

1997

1998

1999

2001

2002

2003

2005

2006

2007

2009

2010

2011
1996

2000

2004

2008

Source: EIA, SICO Research

Oil Markets Update Page 9 of 12

Oil Markets Update 22 February 2010

US Product Inventory

Exhibit 35: US Oklahoma Crude Inventory (mn bbls) Exhibit 36: US Total Crude Inventory (mn bbls)

39,000 390,000

2010 370,000 2010

34,000
350,000
2009 2009
29,000 330,000 5 Year avg.
5 Year avg.
24,000 310,000
290,000
19,000
270,000

14,000 250,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Exhibit 37: US Total Gasoline Inventory (mn bbls) Exhibit 38: US Total Distillate Inventory (mn bbls)
245,000 180,000
170,000 2009
235,000 2010 2010
225,000 160,000
2009 150,000
215,000
140,000
205,000
130,000 5 Year avg.
195,000 5 Year avg.
120,000
185,000 110,000
175,000 100,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Exhibit 39: US Refinery Utilization (%)

100

95 2010
5 Year avg.
90 2009

85

80

75

70
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: EIA, SICO Research

Oil Markets Update Page 10 of 12

Oil Markets Update 22 February 2010

Refined Products

Exhibit 40: Singapore Refining Margins (USD/bbl)

Singapore Complex Singpore Simple GRM Singapore Complex GRM

15
Refining GRMs
improved significantly
during Jan 2010 10
averaging at $ 4.8/bbl
compared to $2.8/bbl
during the previous 5
month and a 2009
average of $3.6/bbl. 0

-5

-10

Source: Reuters, SICO Research

Exhibit 41: Naphtha – Price and Spread Exhibit 42: Gasoline – Price and Spread
10 160 25 180
Naphtha Naphtha - Dubai Spread Gasoline Gasoline - Dubai Spread
5 140 20 160
- 120 140
15
(5)Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 120
100
(10) 10 100
80
(15) 5 80
60
(20) 60
-
(25) 40 40
Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10
20 (5) 20
(30)
(35) - (10) -

Exhibit 43: Kerosene – Price and Spread Exhibit 44: Gasoil – Price and Spread
45 200 50 200
Kerosene Kerosene - Dubai Spread Gasoil Gasoil - Dubai Spread
40 180 45 180
35 160 40 160
35 140
30 140
30
25 120 120
25
20 100 100
20
80
15 80 15
10 60
10 60
5 40
5 40
- 20
- 20
(5)Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 -
(5)Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 -

Source: Bloomberg, SICO Research Note: All figures in USD/bbl

Oil Markets Update Page 11 of 12