Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.

ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, NJ. ValuEngine

covers over 5,000 stocks every day.

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and commentary can be found HERE.

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March 4, 2010 – The Beige Book is a Snow Job

The Beige Book still shows a slowdown in housing and banking. The Non-manufacturing ISM
reflects a “Job Loss Recovery”. Is the gold bubble re-inflating? Stocks remain overbought on
daily charts, but improving on weekly charts.
The Gossip Columns from the twelve Fed Districts shows that nine see improved economic
activity. It seems like some Districts implied that things would be even better except for the severe
snowstorms.
There areas I am concerned about are commercial real estate and construction activity, which are
“Main Street” issues and most Districts characterized these components as weak or as declined further.
“Loan demand remained weak, and lending standards remained tight across the country.” “Most
Districts attributed stronger home sales to the home-buyer tax credit, with several contacts
apprehensive about future sales once the credit expires on April 30.”
This continues the horrific trends I observed from the Q4 FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile. Again there
were no references to “shovel ready” projects or “jobs created or saved” by the Obama Stimulus
Package.
The ValuEngine Quarterly FDIC Report was published on Tuesday, and the trends or the fourth
quarter are continuing through two thirds of the first quarter of 2010, which is not good news for the
economy. Perhaps will workers snowed in the pace of layoffs slowed.
What I am observing on the road this week. Light traffic on I 75, I 10 and I 95 from Tampa Bay up to
Wilmington, NC. Fewer trucks on the road than my last trip last October and the number of empty
Billboards appear to be about the same. Gasoline prices are a lot higher, which is a tax on “Main
Street.”
My observations mirror ABC’s Consumer Comfort Index, which at -49 remains quite weak. Only 8% of
Americans on “Main Street” rate the economy as positive and just 24% say it’s a good time to buy
things.
ISM Non-manufacturing ISM reflects Job Loss Recovery - The service sector is 60% to 70% of the
US economy and the non-manufacturing ISM improved to 53 in February from 50.5 in January. This
improving is accompanied by job losses with the employment component below 50 and 48.6. This tells
me that a 5.9% GDP quarter is not creating or saving jobs.
10-Year Note – Semiannual support is 3.675 with daily, monthly and weekly resistances at 3.528,
3.477 and 3.470. Still richer than my semiannual pivot at 3.675 favoring risk aversion!

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold – Daily, annual, weekly, quarterly and annual supports are $1118.7, $1115.2, $1114.7 with
a semiannual pivot at $1139.7, and semiannual and monthly resistances at $1186.5 and $1195.4.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil – Annual, weekly and quarterly supports are $77.05, $74.39 and $67.22 with daily
and monthly pivots at $79.44 and $80.05, and quarterly, annual and semiannual resistances at $85.21,
$97.29 and $97.50.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro – Daily and weekly supports are 1.3589 and 1.3439 with quarterly and monthly resistances
at 1.4327 and 1.4504.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Dollar versus Japanese Yen – Weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual supports are 87.53, 84.74,
82.69 and 80.22 with semiannual resistance at 92.73.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The British Pound – Daily support is 1.4986 with a weekly pivot at 1.5325 and monthly resistance at
1.5663.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Dow – Daily and weekly supports are 10,341 and 10,157 with my annual pivot at 10,379. Quarterly
support is 6,705 with annual, monthly and semiannual resistances are 11,235, 11,461, 11,442 and
11,949. Here are the daily and weekly charts:
The Daily Chart is overbought! The Weekly Chart is trying to show more upside ahead

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Send me your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our
products and services visit www.ValuEngine.com
That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.

Check out the latest Main Street versus Wall Street on Forex TV Live each day at
1:30 PM. The next broadcast is Monday, March 8, 2010.
http://www.forextv.com/Forex/custom/LiveVideo/Player.jsp
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
www.ValuEngine.com
(800) 381-5576
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I
have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as
well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the
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issues of my research.

“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”