Economic Research

Defiance Capital Management

Economic and Investment Research & Analysis

U.S. Economic Model Simplified Components

March 05, 2010 - 3 pages

Leonardo Cardoso – Managing Director

leocardoso@defiancecap.com
www.defiancecap.com
 U.S. Economic Model Components

March 5, 2010 Economic Research

Definition: Our Economic Model is based on five sub-model with information about the overall
economic activity in the United States. Furthermore, the most influential indicators are ranked in
accordance with their influence on stocks and bonds.

Sub-models
•Health of the Consumers
•Employment Situation
•National Output and Inventories Conditions
•Housing and Construction Conditions
•Prices, Productivity and Wages Indicators

Rankings

Table 1: Economic Indicators Table 2: Economic Indicators

Most Sensitive to Stocks Most Sensitive to Bonds

Rank Indicator Rank Indicator

1 Employment Situation Report 1 Employment Situation Report
2 ISM Report - Manufacturing 2 Consumer Prices
3 Weekly Unemployment Claims 3 ISM Report – Manufacturing
4 Consumer Prices 4 Producer Prices
5 Producer Prices 5 Weekly Unemployment Claims
6 Retail Sales 6 Retail Sales
7 Consumer Confidence and Sentiment 7 Housing Starts
Surveys
8 Chicago PMI Report
8 Advance Report on Durable Goods
9 Industrial Production/Capacity
9 Industrial Production Utilization
10 GDP 10 GDP

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Economic and Investment Research & Analysis
 Legal Disclaimers and Disclosures

March 5, 2010 Economic Research

Legal Disclaimers and Disclosures

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Economic and Investment Research & Analysis