MYANMAR- IN THE GLORIOUS PATH OF

DEMOCRACY.
Brief History
A half-century of military rule drove an economy that was once, one of
Asias most promising into severe dysfunction and stagnation. After a group
of hard-line Generals grabbed power in a military coup in 1962,they
implemented The Burmese Way to Socialism, an idiosyncratic version of
Soviet-style central planning that nationalized industries and isolated the
economy .The Army assumed control of all economic policy making. The
wisdom driving their decisions was nakedly displayed in 1987,when the
Military Junta demonetized certain currency notes on the advice of an
Astrologer, without warning. Over -night ,much of the populations personal
savings ,typically stored in cash ,were wiped out.Because of rampant
corruption ,reckless military spending and anemic GDP, public finances
become so drained that the Junta regularly forced millions of people to work
on infrastructure projects without pay. By the time the Military Junta
reopened Burmas Economy ,at the end of the 1980s,Western countries
would soon impose sanctions because of human rights abuses.
Dawn of Democracy
It is on the back drop of this bleak history that Burma has begun a drastic
reform process. In early 2011,the ruling Army handed over power to a SemiCivilian Government, which subsequently released hundreds of prisoners of
conscience, and ended the house arrest of the Nobel Prize winning opposition
leader ,Aung Sun Suu Kyi. The new government pursued ceasefires with
autonomy-seeking ethnic-minority Armies viz, Arakkans ,along the border
regions. It eased draconian restrictions on political associations, Civil Society,
and the Press. It has also made diplomatic overtures to the U.S. and the
United Nations,both of which it previously shunned.
Most significantly, in 2012 the Junta allowed Suu Kyi and members of her
once-banned partyNational league of democracy,to run in Elections .It
bagged 43 seats out of 44 seats contested by NLD,out of a total of 46 seats
went for by-election. Myamer of 2014, has emerged from classic defunct
state to promising frontier economy. The Southeast Asian country is being
touted as one of the worlds last virgin markets tantalizingly rich in natural

resources like teak, oil, and gold-with a location between India and China
that ensures access to enormous markets.
President Thein Sein and his cabinet has put forth a humbler and more
sensitive image than their predecessors ,presenting themselves as willing to
acknowledge past wrongs and accept input for plans for the future. This
tactics has shown signs of success. President Thein Sein sends a strong
message to politicians and businessmen who resist reforms :If you are not
going to change ,we are not going to leave you behind. In May 2012, U.S.
withdrew its economic sanctions on Burma. U.S. wants that the benefits of
U.S. economic engagement to flow to a broad based group of people who
would govern the well being of Burma.
Suu Kyi, however , cautioned the prospective foreign investors to be
double sure about their investments especially collaborating with state
owned corporations ,until the Government adopts a credible measure of
transparency.
WHAT LIES AHEAD FOR MYANMAR?

Ever since Myanmars army-dominated government began its political

reforms in 2011, the question of whether the countrys most popular
politician would be able to stand for president next year has hung over the
whole process. Aung San Suu Kyi is a Nobel laureate, among the most
famous women in the world, and leader of the countrys biggest opposition
party, the National League for Democracy (NLD). But all this will count for
nothing if Myanmars constitution continues to bar Miss Suu Kyi from
standing for president. Changing the constitution to allow this has become
the single most important test for the countrys reformers. But to judge by
recent events, altering the constitution will be harder than many had
expected.
At the root of the problem is Clause 59(f). The military junta of the time
inserted it into the new constitution in 2008 specifically to stymie the
political aspirations of their most feared opponent, then languishing under
house arrest. The clause bars from the presidency anyone whose spouse or
children are foreign citizens. Miss Suu Kyis late husband, Michael Aris, was a
British academic, while her two sons were born in Britain and hold British
passports. Miss Suu Kyi was released in late 2010. Since she has won the byelection in April 2012 by a landslide and entered parliament as one of 43
newly elected members from the NLD,with her popularity, the NLD is poised

to sweep the board in the general election in late 2015. The president is then
chosen by MPs. Were it not for the tricky clause, freshly elected NLD
lawmakers would elevate Miss Suu Kyi to the presidency.
Until now, it had generally been assumed that even diehard members of
the USDP,the ruling proxy party constituted by Army, provided they got
enough in return, would accept the need to change 59(f), if only to
underscore that Myanmars reform process is real. But then on January 31st,
after months of deliberation, the 109-member parliamentary committee
charged with gathering opinions on constitutional change issued a report
purporting to show that most Burmese were against changing the clause. In
all, the committee, dominated by the USDP, claimed to have received 28,000
letters, almost all suggesting changes to the constitution. Fully 100,000
signatories, it claimed, opposed change either to Clause 59(f), or to
provisions that guarantee the armed forces 25% of the seats in parliament.
By contrast, allegedly a mere 592 signatories favoured scrapping the clause.
The NLD hit back immediately. One MP, Zaw Myint Maung, said the claimed
results were just an organised signature campaign among USDP members in
Yangon, wholly unrepresentative of public opinion. Even if he is right, it
suggests that the USDP grassroots is not going to roll over meekly and
accept a Suu Kyi presidency.
There will be a fight, in other words, and the President, Thein Sein, may
be more sensitive to USDP concerns than people had thought. Exercising
care and wisdom could mean a lengthy processlonger than the 68-year-old
Mrs Suu Kyi may have. The parliamentary committee that came out with its
report was charged merely with canvassing opinions. Now a new committee
has been formed actually to study all the thousands of proposed changes.
That will take time. If ,and when, concrete proposals emerge, there is still the
barrier of the 75% majority of MPs needed to approve constitutional change.
For now, 80% of parliamentary seats are held by the Army or the USDP. Miss
Suu Kyi and herfollowers have a long trekk along the path of Democracy to
reach the destination