Proceedings of the First Pau[iciAs/Q Offshore Mechamcs SymposllIm

Seoul, Korea, 24-28 June, 1990

COPYright 1990 by The Internal/onal Souety of Offshore and Polar Engme"s

APPLICATION OF FPFM TO FATIGUE RELIABILITY

ANALYSIS OF OFFSHORE STRUCTURE
H C Fang and G M Chen
Unhclsit." of PetlO]CUIII
DOllgyillg_ CHIlVA

Pf failure probabllit}
f3 safety Index
60 practical fatigue stress range
60 e estlmated fatIgue stress range
rI> (*) normal functIOn
denoting a fuzzy event or a val'lable
denoting median value of a random \ariable

ABSTRACT
PFM IS ndely applied in the fatigue reliabilih
analysis of offshore structures. However. some fuzz~
uncertaInties concerned In the prediction of offshore
structure fatigue are not conSIdered by PFM. such as
uncerntainty in the evaluation of flaw size distribution
form and parameters. fuzziness In failure crIteria.
subjective factor involved in design. fabrication and
inspection. and so on. The paper presents a new method
--- FPFM (fuzzy probabilistic fracture mechanics) to
predIct the fatigue rellability of offshore structure
when fuzzy factors eXIst. WhIch is developed by
combIning fuzzy system theory and PFM. By the new
method, all uncerntalnties (randomness and fuzziness)
may be considered in fatigue reliability investigation.
Some applications of FPFM are also discussed.

1. INTRODUCTION

ProbabIlistic fracture mechamcs (PFM) is a useful tool

WhICh IS widely applied to predict fatlgue failure
probabIlIty of offshore structures (LidIaI'd, 1979,
Kirkemo, 1988). Evaluation of offshore structure fatigue
and fracture is complIcated by mallY uncertain factors
(Wirsching. 1984. Martindale &et al. 1983. Karadeniz
&et al. 1982). WhICh may be claSSIfIed as two t~pes:
randomness and fUZZIness. The randomness In fatIgUe
anahsis of offshore structures may be dealt WIth
effectly b~ PF~ (Pallou, 1986. Chen. 1986, Marshall,
1982). However, the fuzzy factors are not considerd only
by PFH. WhICh may effect the fatlgue reliabilit~
greatly. We have proposed an approach to predIct the
fatlgue reliability of offshore structures while fuzzy
factors exist. based on S-N curve (Fans &Chen, 1989).
Using the new method. life distl'lbutlon of a fuzzy
fatigue failure event and fatigue dIstrIbution when some
parameters are fuzzy val'lables can be determIned. In
order to investIgate fatIgue relIability of offshore
structures by PFH where both randomness and fuzziness
eust, we dereloped a new approach --- FPFM, based on
fuzzy system theory, by IIhich the fuzzy fatigue and
fracture reliabIlity analjsls can be made and the
applicatIon area of PFM IS extended also. The prInciples
of FPFM and Its applIcatIons to the fuzzy fatisue
relIabIlIty analysis of offshore structure are dIscussed
In the paper.

KEY WORDS: FatIgue rellabllty. Offshore structure. Fuzzy

analysis. ProbabIlistic fracture mechamcs. Crack
NOMENCLATURE
a
a.
ac
B
b ha
C.m

.0:

dCA.B)
K
~

Np
mz(z)

crack size
InItIal crack SIze
critical crack size
random variable denotIng the uncertalny in
estimate of fatigue stress
updated factor of median value and val'lation
coeffIcients of crack SIze (a J
coeffiCIents of PariS formula
\ ariatIOn coeffiCIents of rand.Q..m \'anable x
Hamming distance between A and B
stress Intensity factor
fatigue life of component
fatIgUe life of component .hen reliability
IS g1\en.
membership or possIbllI ty distributIOn of
fuzz~ \81'1able Z
7

2. PRINCIPLES OF FPFM

fracture mechanlcs Include fracture toughness parameters

Kr and JI, the parameters that describe the property

of C crack 8rOpagatIOn, such as the coeffIclents C and m

in ParlS formula, whIch are treated as a constant or a
random vanable. However, these data are obtained in
varIOUS condItions, or uSlng different specimens. So
there enst a difference between these data, since the
test condltlon lS not the same. In additIon, it IS
eVldent that specimen is quite different from the real
situation of structure. Moreover how to select the
materIal parameters among these test data is of
subJective fuzzIness. For this reason, all factors
should be consldered in the selectIon of material
parameters, and declsion by subjectIve imaglnation only
IS not efficient. The authors suggest that the problem
would be solved bJ slmilarlty measure method In the
theory of fuzzy sets. That i~ to treat real situatIon
of structures as a fuzzy set A and to conSIder condItIon
where specimens are tested as other fuzzy set
Bi(1=1,2, ... ,v). The similarity between A and Hi is
determined with Hamming dlstance or other distance. The
data IS more similar to that of structure than others,
and can be applied to solve pr~tlcal problems, which
has the shortest distance WIth A.

2.1 modellIng of fuzzy factors In PFM analysls

(1) Inltial crack Slze
Initlal crack size ao is a crItical parameter In the
PFM analysIs. Two ways are employed to deal ftlth a o in
the investigation of the fatigue and fracture of
offshore strucutures and other structures: (i) a 0 IS
treated as a determlfllstic and determIned b~ NDT, this
method is used to predict the remaining fatIgue llfe of
structural member with defects eXIsted. (lI) a o IS dealt
kith as a random varIable, and ItS scatter IS described
by its size dIstrIbution of the same type of structural
member. Both methods mentioned above are not the best
method SInce the practlcal Sl tuatIOn of a 0 can not be
descrlbed by the methods precIsely. The fuzzy factors
should be consldered, whlch existed 1Il lIlvestigation of
the characterlstlc of ao
A. Modification of probabllIstIc dlstnbution for ao
The parameters of flaw SIZe distrIbution of a 0
component are not constants, whlch may be changed due
to the lnfluence of some factors. So it lS more sUltable
to tl'eat the parameters that describe the probablllstIc
properties of a random varIable as the varIable whlch
varIes wlth certain factors, of "hlch are weldlIlg
technology and welded material, the qualiflcatlon of
welded man and lnspectIon personal, inspectIOn eqUlpment
and method, lnspectIOn ennronment and so on. For the
sake of simpllcity, It lS assumed that the uncertaln
factor would brlng the \ariatlon of dlstrlbutlon
parameters (ao (mean value) and Ca 0 (varIation
coefflclent and the form of dIstribution IS unvaried.
We may modify the propertles of flaw Slze dIstrIbution
bJ the method based on the fuzzJ system theory. Let the
mean \'alue and varIation coefficlent of a In common
case denoted bJ Ii: and Ca: respect! re lr. Uter the
parameters are corrected and updated by takIng account
of the Influence of various uncerntaln factors, we have

(3) TheoretIcal model

There is always an error in the application
theoretlcal model to solve the engIneering problems.
AppllcatIOn range of a theory is limited due to some
factors and the limItatIon IS of fuzzIness. On the other
sIde, the same problem may be studied by several
approachs. The selectIon of method will brIng some
subjectIve uncertainties. The fuzziness mentIoned above
may be dealt WIth by the method gIven In section
(2.1.2). Of course, the factors conslderd would be
changed. We may use fuzzy evaluation method to describe
the rorrection of the method and some errors uf the
model are calculated In the fatIgue rellablll ty
prediction of offshore structures.
2.2 The fuzziness In failure cnteria by fracture
mechanics and its descriptlon

(1)

Cao = bakCa:

(2)

When fracture mechanIcs IS applIed to Investlgate the

rellablilty of a cracked structural component, the
dIfferent mode of faIlure mar be concerned wlth, which
Include fracture, fatlgue, Yleld, bucklng. leakage and
so on. The faIlure functIon IS dertermlned as follows:

b, and ba are determlned by a evaluation method, whlch

lS proposed 1Il by Chen & Fang (1990).
B, The assessment of a o
The value of a which IS obtalIled by NDT method does
not represent the true \alue of InItIal flaw Slze. We
used a corrected factor whlch lS a random val'lable to
descrIbe the uncertalnty. The lImItatIon of uSIng the
corrected factor lS that a probablilstic dIstrIbutIon of
corrected factor does not descrIbe the uncertalnty
approplately Slnce there eXlsts much fuzzlness than
randomness in the assessment of a o by NDT. So It IS
sUltable to take ao as a fuzzy vanable, "hose
membershIp function IS denoted as
a o- Ca
-(--)

m- ( a o )= c, e
aD

c.

Z=f(x,.x., .. x n )

(4)

It is defIned that fallure occurs when Z lS smaller than

zero. The defInItIon IS unreasonable Slnce the failure
IS a progressIve process, the nature of whlch IS not
studied well In certaln case. It does not alter the
faIlure condItIon of structural component that Z varIes
a lIttle near the value of zero. It may be said In some
condltlon that the faIlure IS a conceptIon with
fuzziness. A structural component that is treated as
belIlg III failure condItion in a condItion may be In
safty state in other conditIon if failure standard
varIed. Therefore, we may define sevel'lal faIlure
events as fuzzy events. The failure probabilIty IS
evaluated by a probabillty formula for a fuzzy event.
The procedure lS presented as follows:
a. The membershIp functlOn that describes a fuzzy
failure event lS determined fIrst and the membership
degree of a faIlure event is estimated by crack Slze or
the value of faIlure functlon. The membership function

(3)

where c., C a and c. are the parameters that are

determIned by fuzzy evaluatlon method, conslderlng the
effects of some factors.
(2) Material parameters
The matenal parameters involved In the analysis of
8

may be described by semi-normal function or semi-sIne

function. that is:

m'F{ a) .. {

t-

is

inci (x-r)

membershIp functIOn of Pf may be estiblished. For

Instance. let the faIlure functlon be

z = x+z

r-1'1/26:; a
r- 1'1/2 < a< r+1'1/2
r+1'1/2~ a

(11)

where
x --- a random variable whose probabIlIstic
dIstributIon fuctlon is denoted by P(x)
~ --- a fuzzy
variable whose membership
function is denoted by mir(z)

(5)

b. To obtain the probabilistIc density functIon of the

value of faIlure functIon Z or other varIables --- feZ)
or f(a).
'
c. The failure probability is calculated using
following equatIon

So
(12)

Its membership function is given by

(ii)

m..... ( PI) .. m..... ( - P- 1

PI
Z

2.3 PFM analysis when fuzzy factors exist

The failure probability is assessed based on the
failure function in the PFM analysIs of structure. When
the fuzzy factors are taken into account. several
parameters in the fai,lure function may become the fuzzy
variables. The dIstribution parameters of the random
variables may be described also by a fuzzy variable in
some cases. In the cases. if the fuzzIness in faIlure
criteria is not considered. the failure function has the
below. form:

<PI)

)
(13)

Eq.13 may be used to evaluated the fracture reliability

of cracked component under the fuzzy earthquake load.
(2) The distributIon parameters are fuzzy variables
If some dIstribution parameters are fuzzy varIables
and the failure functlon is expressed by, a complex
function. it would be more dIfficult to determine Pf.
.-For the sImplicity. the formula for ho speCIal cases
are Introduced:
-

A.
(7)
where

(14)

where Yj (J=1.2 . m) IS the normal random variable.

that IS

,
Xi (i=1.2 n) --- the Ith random variable

y.-N<;.,
-;.J )
1
J

YJ (j=1.2 m) --- the Jth random varIable

whose parameters are of fuzzIness
Zk (k=1.2 t) --- the kth fuzzy variable

(15)

In the case. we have

It is very dIffIcult to comput directly from above

Eq.7. Two specIal forms are studied first:
(1b)

(1) The parameters in the failure functlon are the

fuzzy variables
In this case. the form of failure function becomes as
follows:

Z=

f (XI; x"

xu,

ZI'

Zap .... Zt)

(17)

By means of Eq.16 &Eq.17. the membership function of Pf

.might be obtalnted easily.

(8)

A function is defined by Eq.8. that is

B.
(9)

where

y. (j=1.2 . m) is the

variable~Jthat is

We might calculate the membership function of Pf by -the

the extensIon principle in fuzzy mathematics (Dubois &
Prade. 1980. Zimmermann. 1985). that is

PI=F(zl.Zt)

Z = In(y, *y. * ... *yaJ

III Y J -N (JoLI lly

(18)

log-normal

crIllY

random

(19)

In the case. it can be obtained

m
_

(10)

'~1

J.L

lilY,

J =J-= - - -J- < ~m -crill7J) t

Clearly. it is uneasy to obtaIn the the membershIp

function of Pf from Eq.9 and Eq.1o. It can be done by a
optImization technIque (Fang.H & Chen.G. 1989). Only
when the failure functIon IS sImple. a formula for

J=

(20)

Obviously. It can be conSIdered that a group of discreted

varIable will be equal to a continous if the Interval
becomes less or q. Increases.
B. To comput tPfi.mpAPf.) (i=1.2 ..... q). Let Zi
take different of dlscreted1value. we have followed a
group of failure function:

The fuzzy property of Pf may be investlgated by the same

procedure as above.
3. APPLICATION OF FPFM TO OFFSHORE STRUCTURES
3.1 Fuzziness in the applIcation PFM to offshore
structure

- = f(x x...... x
Zi

The application of PFM to predict the fatigue and

fracture reliability of offshore structure will bring
some fuzzy factors. which exist in the various stages of
PFM analysis. of which include:
i. The prediction of environment and loading of
structure
ii. The estimation of the material behavior
parameters
iii. The selection of theoretical model
These fuzzy uncertainties come from three type of
resources:
A. The difference between the theoretical model and
the true situation of offshore strucutrue
a. The selection of the probabilistic distribution
type of stochastic variables.
b. The limitation and unprecision of calculated model.
c. The alteration of the type of a probabilistic
distribution and/or its distributIon parameters due to
the variation of environment.
B. The unprecision of data
a. The numerical value of a variables is estimated by
experience.
b. the scarity of imformation on loading. influence of
welding technology and so on.
c. Errors in estimation of distribution parameter of a
random variable by statistical method.
d. the lack of knowledge about the nature of failure.
C. The existence of subjective factor
a. The evaluation of failure event.
b. personal influence in the design and fabrication.
For the reason. different type of fuzzy factors should
be described and modelled according to the their type.
3.2 The approximate calculation
distribution of Pf

for

z.b z.b ...... ZmM

(b.=1.2 .. q.; b.=1.2 .. q.;

... ; 1m=1.2 .... qm>

(22)

By a probabilIstic method. Pf may be determined from

Eq.22, mp~(Pf) is calculated by
mp-lPf)
= min[mZ-(z.
b ).urz (z. b). .mZ-(Zmh) I (23)
f'
.I,
a
a
m"1l1
C. To delete the discrete points which are not the
real value on the extension principle. That is. when
IPfi-rPfil and IPfi+.rPfil are small. the point
(Pfi.~(Pf i) will be elIminated. if mPi(Pf i ) is smaller
than m1l1(Pf i-l) and IIIjl[

(Pf i+l)'

In this way.

all

unqualified points would be deleted.

D. To fit the remaining discrete pOInts to obtain a
continous variable with a polynormial or the function
similar to the Weibull distributIon function so that a
approximate formula for possibility distributIon of Pf
is determined.
E. Assessment of the fuzzy fatIgue reliability is
carried out by the procedure given by Fang.H & Chen.G
(1989)

This approximate method is very efficient when the

numbers of fuzzy variables are less. The shortcominB of
the method is that the computation will take too much
time if the numbers of fuzzy variable increased. The
authors proposed that different of combination of Zib.is
arranged by making use of a perpendicular table Ito
reduce the computation times. based on the principle of
p~rpendicular testing method.

possibility

It is impossible to obtain a closed expression for Pf

directly from Eq.8 in the assessment of fuzzy fatigue
reliability of offshore structures. if too many fuzzy
factors are concerned. In the case. the common
optimization technique is diffcult to determine the
possibility distribution of Pf. For the reason. we
introduce a approximate calculated method --- variable
discrelizatlon method to solve the problem. That IS. a
group of Pf is computed by the discrellzation of the
fuzzy variables. of which. the discrete pOInts are
deleted which are not the real value on the extent ion
pricinple. The contlnous variable is obtained by fitting
method based on the remaining discrete points. A
approximate expression for possibilIty distrbution of Pf
is determined In this way. The procedure of appling the
method is illustrated as follows:
A. Assume that the failure function contains m fuzzy
varIables. By discrelization. a fuzzy variable z i
(i=1.2 .. m) is transformed into a group of dIscrete
variable. that is

3.3 The application of FPFM

FPFM provides the tool for efficient and accurate
uncertainty analysis of offshore structures. Using
FPFM method, the many subjective factors encountered
often in the fatigue investigation of offshore structure
may be dealt with effectively. WhICh were not studied
only by a probabilistic method. To demonstrate the
application of FPFM to offshore structures, two simple
examples are introduced beblow. Of course, the methods
used In the examples would be easily extend to deal ~ith
fuzzy uncertainies in the similar case.
(1) The selection of parameters for crack growth rate
As illustrated previous, a similarIty measure method
may be used to select the material parameters that would
be applIed to fatigue and fracture analYSIS of offshore
structure from several groups of testing data, which is
obtaIned under different condition. In the example, we
employ weIghted Hamming distance to select the crack
growth property parameters from four groups of test
data. Imformation on the testing condition is shown in
the Table. 1.

(21)

10

becomes a fuzzy one also. It IS required to deterimine

the fuzzy property of Pf or 1" on that of a,. For the
sImplicity, a sImple fatigue model is adopted. that IS,
stress intensity factor K is defined as (DNV,1982)

Table.1
material type of loading of property environcrack
crack
of load
ment
A
B
B
B
B

steel
steel
steel
steel
steel

a
b
a
c
a

SC

sc

CT
TPB
SC

T&B
T&B
T
B
T

random
random
random
const.
random

(26)

sea-water
an
sea-water
water
sea-water

the crack growth rate IS described by ParIs formula, and

only Band C are treated as random variable, which have
a log-normal distribution. So that, we have
(27)

N = H/(C*Bi

* T: tension; B: bending; T&B: tension and bend1ng

sc: surface crack or surface crack speCImen;
CT: CT specimen;
TPB: three-points bending specimen.

where
H=

The real situation of structure and the condition of

test are defined respectively as fuzzy set A and
lri(i=1.2 ... v). which contains fIve elements. that IS,
x,(material). x.(type of crack). x.(load1ng of crack).
x.(property of loading). and x. (environment).
By
assessment. we have

(a~ -a:

(28)

)/h,

h, = h*k* t:.~

(29)

h = 1-m*n

(30)

Clearly, N is a fuzzy log-normal random variable. That

is

m(A) = 1.0/x +.90/x +.85/x +.95/x +1.0/x

(31)

m(B,) = .85/x +.85/x +.80/x +.85/x +.60/x

where

m(Ba) = 1.0/x +.75/x +.75/x +.90/x +.90/x

m(Ba) = .90/x +.80/x +.78/x +.80/x +.80/x

J& In = Ln(H)-IJ'lnC-m* J&I n

N

m(B.) = 1.0/x +.85/x +.75/x +.85/x +.90/x

alnN

From the expression for weighted Hamming distance:

Consequentl~,

Pf

t is a weighted factor.
m
E w(x)
j=l
J

m
= {Ln[(1+CC)(l+C.s)
)}

(32)
(33)

we have

(24)
where w(x

Ln(N)-J&I nN

=~ (----------- )
ainN

(34)

and

=1

-1

(25)

Np = exp[ a InN~ (Pf) +J& bJ

(35)

From the Eq.33 or Eq.34, it can be obtained

where
-1
Vh
a, = {a~ -hI *N*exp!f.i Inc+m* J&InB- aInJ'fP (pf)}
(36)

w = (.35 . 20 10 . 15 20)

.....

1.t 1S easily obtaIned the dIstance between A and

Bi(i=1,2.3,4), that IS

Combing Eq.36 with Eq.3, the possibility distribution of

~ or 1rp may easlly obtainted, based on the extenslOn
principle.

d[.{,1) = .162
d(!.{,a) = .068
d(A.B.) = .125
d(A.~)
.055

4.CONCLUSION
(1) The fuzzy uncernta1n factors associated wIth the
the rellabillty analYSIs by PFH are modeled. Some
methods are presented to describe the fuzzIness In the
evaluation of crack SIze, the selectIon of material
parameters and theoretIcal model, and so on.
(2) The fuzzIness existed in failure criteria defined
by fracture mechanIcs is studied and the procedure IS
presented by WhICh It IS poss1lble to estimate the
faIlure probabIlity of a component when a faIlure may be
treated as a fuzzy event.
(3) The fat1gue rehabillty analysis IS discussed by
FPFM while both random uncertaInty and fuzzy uncertainty
are considered In quantity. The closed expressions of
failure probabilIty for simple cases are presented.
(4) The approach IS mtroduced to predict approXlmate ly

Clearly. The data of EG can used to predIct the growth

behavior of crack In the structure.
(2) The Influence on Pf due to fUZZIness in evaluat10n
of crack size
The fat1gUe behavior of structural component should
be reevaluated, based the fatlgue rehab1hty when
serVlce hfe is given, or the remaining fatlgue hfe
when the reliability is gi\en, 1f a defect IS discovered
by NDT or other method. As shown before, a, determIned
by NDT is a approXlmant winch may be treated as a , fuzzy
\ arlable. As soon as a, 1S defIned as a fuzzy varlable,
the failure Pl'obabihty or remallllng fatigue hfe
11

fatigue relIabIlIty of offshore structures In the

complex condltlon.
(5) The applicatIons of FPFM to offshore structures
are dlscussed through two examples. The methods employed
In the examples may be extended to solve the simllar and
more complex problem.
FPFM lS a newly-developed subJect and there IS much
work to do in the field. such as the evaluatlon of fuzzy
variable. the descriPtlon of experIence. the fast
coputation of fuzzy failure probabIlity and so on.
However. appllcatlon of FPFH to offshore structure IS
very promislng In the future.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This work lS supported by National Natural SClence
Foundatlon of Chlna. This support lS greatly
acknowledged.
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fatlgue reliability analysis of offshore structure
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A.B. (1979).
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Fracture mechanlcs. current status.
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