Calculating Earth's Total Fossil Fuel Reserves

We are constantly reminded by the “experts” and the media that demand for fossil fuels, such as oil,
natural gas and even coal, may exceed supply in the not too distant future. In my opinion, these
projections are based on faulty and extremely low estimates of total fossil fuel reserves (TFFR) on the
planet.

One can readily calculate TFFR if only one assumption is made, namely, that all of the molecular
oxygen (O2) in the atmosphere is the result of plant photosynthesis.

We know that the overall equation for photosynthesis is given below

CO2 + H2O >>>>>> O2 + C-(H2O)

where C-(H2O) represents the carbohydrate or reduced carbon that is generated with every molecule of
oxygen produced by living plant life. Today it is generally accepted that our atmospheric oxygen is the
result of plant photosynthesis {1}. Proceeding from this assumption, we have molecular oxygen with a
molecular weight of 32 passing into the atmosphere while reduced carbon {C-(H2O)} with an atomic
weight of 12 is left to be buried on the Earth. This gives us a ratio of 12/32, which means for every
pound of molecular oxygen in the atmosphere there must be 0.375 pounds of reduced carbon, aka fossil
fuel buried in the Earth.

Therefore, if we know the total weight of atmospheric oxygen, we can easily and accurately calculate
TFFR. The total weight of atmospheric oxygen can be calculated from first principles [the earth's
surface area x atmospheric pressure (14.7 lbs/sq. inch) x 23 wt. percent oxygen] or accepting the figure
given by sources such as Wikipedia {2}. The result is 1.34 x 10 exp 15 tons. Multiplying this figure by
12/32 or 0.375 gives 5 x 10 exp 14 tons of buried fossil carbon or TFFR.

The total amount of fossil fuel still buried is a huge number, but not very meaningful, unless we can
relate it to something else, say, the amount of fossil fuel used per year. Carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere amounts to about 388 parts per million (ppm) and increases about 2 ppm every year,
mostly from the burning of fossil fuels {3}. Converting this yearly increase into added carbon requires
multiplying the the weight of the earth's atmosphere (5.8 x10 exp 15) by the added carbon dioxide (2 x
10 exp -6) and by the ratio of carbon's atomic weight to carbon dioxide's molecular weight (12/44). The
result is 3.16 x 10 exp 9 tons of added carbon in the air in one year.

Dividing the amount of fossil fuel used in one year by the amount of fossil fuel remaining [(3.16 x 10
exp 9) / (5 x 10 exp 14)] = 0.632 x 10 exp -5 or 0.00063% of the fossil fuel remaining has been used
by mankind. Assuming that all of the TFFR will be eventually available and our current use rate
remains constant, we can calculate that mankind still has 158,000 years of fossil fuel supply [[(5 x 10
exp14 tons)/(3.16 x 10 exp 9 tons per year)] = 158,000 years]].

Of course, most of the TFFR will not be accessible at any price, and significant usage, say more than
10 percent, would reduce the molecular oxygen in the air to a noticeable extent as well as contributing
to the greenhouse effect. However, I think that this analysis shows that alarmist's claims, that we are
running out of fossil fuels in the short term (< 100 years), are without foundation.

{1} http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Earth#Structure_of_the_atmosphere
{2} http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxygen
{3} http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html

3-8-2010