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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Iowa
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error

1670 Registered Voters


September 3-10, 2015

4.4%

1. Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
Getting better . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%
About the same . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39%
Getting worse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%

2. How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential caucus in Iowa?
Definitely will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .60%
Probably will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
Maybe will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Probably will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Definitely will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Dont know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%

3. In 2016, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential caucus?
Democratic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%
Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34%
Neither . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Dont know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
4. Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Republican Presidential caucus
in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Jeb Bush . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Ben Carson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%
Chris Christie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Ted Cruz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Carly Fiorina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Jim Gilmore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Lindsey Graham . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Mike Huckabee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Bobby Jindal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
John Kasich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
George Pataki . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Rand Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Rick Perry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Marco Rubio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Rick Santorum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29%
Scott Walker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
5. If you had to choose one, who would be your SECOND choice among the candidates
running for the Republican Presidential nomination?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Jeb Bush . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Ben Carson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Chris Christie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Ted Cruz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Carly Fiorina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%
Jim Gilmore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Lindsey Graham . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Mike Huckabee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Bobby Jindal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
John Kasich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
George Pataki . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Rand Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Rick Perry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Marco Rubio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Rick Santorum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Scott Walker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8%

6. Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Democratic Presidential caucus
in 2016?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Joe Biden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%


Lincoln Chafee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Hillary Clinton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33%
Martin OMalley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Bernie Sanders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43%
Jim Webb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
7. If you had to choose one, who would be your SECOND choice among the candidates
running for the Democratic Presidential nomination?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Joe Biden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26%


Lincoln Chafee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Hillary Clinton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19%
Martin OMalley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Bernie Sanders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Jim Webb . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%

8. How would you describe your feelings right now about [Candidate Name] ... ?
Enthusiastic about [Candidate Name] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50%
Supporting [Candidate Name] but with some reservations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39%
Considering [Candidate Name] mainly because you dislike the other choices so
far . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%

9. Which comes closest to your feelings about the way things are going in Washington?
Enthusiastic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Satisfied but not enthusiastic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Disatisfied but not angry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41%
Angry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45%

10. Has Hillary Clintons use of a personal email and server while she was Secretary of State
made you more likely or less likely to support her for the nomination?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

More likely . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Has not mattered . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74%
Less likely . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
11. Do you think the policies of a Hillary Clinton Administration would ...
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Favor the rich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%


Favor the middle class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52%
Favor the poor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Treat all groups equally . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%

12. Do you think the policies of a Bernie Sanders Administration would ...
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Favor the rich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%


Favor the middle class . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43%
Favor the poor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28%
Treat all groups equally . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%

13. Would you favor or oppose raising taxes on the investment firms and financial institutions
that trade stocks and bonds?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Favor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26%
Oppose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30%

14. In the last few years have the Republicans in Congress compromised with Barack Obama
too much or too little?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Too much . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81%


The right amount . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Too little . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
15. Which one of these candidate qualities is MOST important in deciding who to support for
the Republican nomination?
Asked of Republican primary voters

They are a true conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%


Their experience getting things done in policy and politics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Their experience getting things done in business and the private sector . 36%
They can defeat the Democratic nominee. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20%

16. Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are living in the US?
They should be allowed to stay in the US and eventually apply for citizenship.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45%
They should be allowed to stay in the US legally, but not be allowed to apply for
citizenship. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8%
They should be required to leave the US. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47%

17. Which comes closest to your position on abortion? Do you think abortion should be...
Legal in all cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20%
Legal in most cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25%
Illegal in most cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38%
Illegal in all cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%

18. Thinking about politics these days, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?
Very liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Moderate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%
Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%
Very Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
19. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ...?
Strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Not very strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%
Lean Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Independent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%
Lean Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Not very strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%

20. Are you male or female?


Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48%
Female . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52%

21. In what year were you born? [Age recoded from birth year]
18-29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
30-44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%
45-64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44%
65+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%

22. What racial or ethnic group best describes you?


White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94%
Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%

23. What is the highest level of education you have completed?


HS or less . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41%
Some college . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37%
College grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Post grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error

1670 Registered Voters


September 3-10, 2015

4.4%

1. Trend of Economy
Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
Gender
Getting better
About the same
Getting worse
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

18%
39%
40%
3%

21%
34%
43%
3%

15%
44%
37%
4%

24%
50%
19%
6%

15%
32%
48%
4%

16%
38%
45%
1%

21%
36%
39%
4%

17%
40%
39%
3%

18%
18%
64%
1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(806)

(861)

(281)

(307)

(735)

(344)

(1,562)

100%

(1,668)

(21)

(18)

(67)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
2. Likelihood of Voting
How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential caucus in Iowa?
Gender
Definitely will vote
Probably will vote
Maybe will vote
Probably will not vote
Definitely will not vote
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

60%
14%
9%
7%
8%
3%

61%
13%
9%
7%
8%
1%

60%
14%
8%
6%
7%
4%

66%
15%
9%
6%
4%
0%

50%
17%
16%
9%
6%
2%

60%
13%
7%
6%
12%
3%

66%
12%
6%
7%
4%
5%

61%
13%
8%
7%
8%
3%

44%
14%
23%
1%
16%
2%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(807)

(863)

(281)

(307)

(737)

(344)

(1,563)

100%

(1,670)

(21)

(18)

(68)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
3. 2016 Primary Turnout
In 2016, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential caucus?
Gender
Democratic
Republican
Neither
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

33%
34%
15%
18%

30%
40%
13%
17%

35%
29%
17%
19%

43%
32%
9%
16%

30%
32%
13%
25%

30%
33%
18%
19%

34%
41%
15%
10%

32%
34%
15%
18%

23%
37%
19%
20%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(807)

(863)

(281)

(307)

(737)

(344)

(1,564)

100%

(1,670)

(21)

(18)

(68)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
4. First Choice Republican Candidate
Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Republican Presidential caucus in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Scott Walker
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

3%
25%
1%
10%
4%
1%
0%
4%
2%
2%
0%
2%
0%
6%
3%
29%
5%
4%

2%
23%
0%
14%
5%
0%
0%
5%
1%
3%
0%
2%
0%
6%
2%
32%
6%
2%

4%
29%
1%
5%
4%
2%
0%
4%
2%
1%
0%
2%
1%
7%
4%
26%
2%
7%

1%
27%
0%
8%
6%
0%
0%
1%
4%
4%
0%
5%
0%
15%
5%
23%
0%
1%

1%
19%
2%
8%
3%
4%
0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
4%
0%
2%
5%
38%
6%
4%

3%
25%
0%
12%
5%
0%
0%
6%
2%
3%
0%
1%
1%
6%
2%
27%
3%
4%

4%
30%
0%
9%
3%
0%
0%
4%
0%
1%
0%
0%
0%
3%
0%
31%
9%
4%

3%
26%
1%
10%
5%
1%
0%
3%
2%
2%
0%
2%
0%
5%
3%
29%
5%
4%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(705)

(403)

(302)

(118)

(118)

(300)

(169)

(664)

(1)

(9)

(30)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
5. Second Choice Republican Candidate
If you had to choose one, who would be your SECOND choice among the candidates running for the Republican Presidential nomination?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Scott Walker
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

6%
21%
1%
9%
11%
0%
0%
6%
6%
3%
0%
4%
3%
5%
1%
10%
7%
8%

7%
22%
1%
9%
10%
0%
0%
3%
5%
2%
0%
7%
3%
3%
1%
12%
10%
6%

4%
19%
1%
9%
11%
0%
0%
9%
6%
4%
0%
1%
3%
7%
1%
8%
4%
12%

17%
21%
2%
5%
5%
0%
0%
5%
9%
0%
0%
10%
5%
4%
0%
0%
9%
9%

6%
18%
1%
6%
13%
0%
0%
7%
4%
0%
0%
5%
6%
3%
1%
9%
11%
10%

2%
24%
1%
11%
12%
0%
0%
3%
7%
2%
0%
2%
1%
6%
2%
13%
5%
6%

3%
16%
1%
10%
12%
1%
0%
9%
1%
8%
0%
2%
2%
4%
0%
11%
7%
11%

5%
21%
1%
9%
11%
0%
0%
6%
6%
3%
0%
4%
2%
5%
1%
10%
7%
9%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(704)

(403)

(301)

(118)

(118)

(299)

(169)

(664)

(1)

(9)

(30)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
6. First Choice Democratic Candidate
Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Democratic Presidential caucus in 2016?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Gender
Joe Biden
Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

10%
1%
33%
5%
43%
1%
7%

10%
3%
29%
6%
47%
1%
4%

10%
0%
36%
4%
41%
0%
8%

1%
0%
22%
4%
74%
0%
0%

11%
7%
32%
1%
45%
0%
4%

15%
0%
34%
6%
34%
1%
9%

9%
0%
45%
8%
28%
1%
10%

8%
1%
34%
5%
45%
1%
7%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(646)

(258)

(387)

(141)

(106)

(265)

(133)

(593)

(23)

(13)

(17)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
7. Second Choice Democratic Candidate
If you had to choose one, who would be your SECOND choice among the candidates running for the Democratic Presidential nomination?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Gender
Joe Biden
Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

26%
0%
19%
13%
19%
4%
18%

25%
1%
18%
19%
16%
7%
14%

27%
0%
20%
9%
22%
2%
21%

17%
0%
31%
14%
12%
8%
19%

29%
0%
22%
7%
22%
7%
13%

26%
1%
15%
17%
20%
3%
18%

34%
0%
14%
7%
24%
1%
20%

26%
0%
18%
13%
21%
4%
18%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(636)

(258)

(378)

(141)

(97)

(265)

(133)

(584)

(23)

(13)

(17)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
8. Enthusiasm for First Choice
How would you describe your feelings right now about [Candidate Name] ... ?
Gender
Enthusiastic
Supporting with reservations
Considering as best alternative
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

50%
39%
11%

54%
36%
10%

47%
41%
12%

47%
36%
17%

51%
38%
12%

48%
40%
12%

56%
39%
5%

50%
39%
11%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,417)

(721)

(696)

(266)

(251)

(609)

(289)

(1,335)

(18)

(17)

(47)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
9. Satisfied with Washington
Which comes closest to your feelings about the way things are going in Washington?
Gender
Enthusiastic
Satisfied but not enthusiastic
Disatisfied but not angry
Angry
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

4%
10%
41%
45%

4%
7%
36%
53%

4%
13%
45%
38%

3%
15%
55%
28%

11%
10%
33%
45%

3%
8%
42%
47%

2%
11%
32%
56%

4%
10%
41%
45%

0%
2%
34%
64%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(807)

(859)

(281)

(307)

(737)

(340)

(1,560)

100%

(1,667)

(21)

(18)

(68)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
10. Clinton Email Server Support
Has Hillary Clintons use of a personal email and server while she was Secretary of State made you more likely or less likely to support her for the nomination?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Gender
More likely
Has not mattered
Less likely
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

4%
74%
22%

4%
73%
23%

4%
75%
21%

1%
79%
20%

5%
76%
19%

5%
70%
26%

5%
77%
18%

4%
73%
23%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(645)

(258)

(387)

(141)

(106)

(265)

(133)

(593)

(23)

(13)

(17)

10

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
11. Clinton Administration
Do you think the policies of a Hillary Clinton Administration would ...
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Gender
Favor the rich
Favor the middle class
Favor the poor
Treat all groups equally
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

24%
52%
6%
19%

30%
52%
4%
14%

19%
52%
7%
22%

28%
68%
0%
5%

34%
50%
7%
9%

23%
42%
8%
27%

11%
57%
8%
24%

24%
52%
6%
18%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(642)

(258)

(385)

(141)

(106)

(265)

(130)

(590)

(23)

(13)

(17)

11

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
12. Sanders Administration
Do you think the policies of a Bernie Sanders Administration would ...
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Gender
Favor the rich
Favor the middle class
Favor the poor
Treat all groups equally
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

4%
43%
28%
25%

2%
49%
32%
18%

6%
39%
25%
31%

1%
37%
40%
22%

4%
48%
34%
14%

6%
39%
22%
33%

3%
52%
21%
23%

4%
44%
27%
25%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(637)

(258)

(379)

(141)

(105)

(260)

(130)

(584)

(23)

(13)

(17)

12

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
13. Raise Taxes on Wall Street
Would you favor or oppose raising taxes on the investment firms and financial institutions that trade stocks and bonds?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Favor
Oppose
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

26%
44%
30%

27%
51%
22%

25%
35%
40%

13%
64%
23%

33%
33%
35%

22%
49%
29%

38%
30%
32%

26%
44%
30%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(705)

(403)

(302)

(118)

(118)

(300)

(169)

(664)

(1)

(9)

(30)

13

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
14. Compromise with Obama
In the last few years have the Republicans in Congress compromised with Barack Obama too much or too little?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Too much
The right amount
Too little
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

81%
9%
10%

85%
9%
7%

76%
10%
15%

68%
13%
19%

77%
17%
6%

84%
7%
9%

87%
4%
8%

81%
9%
10%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(701)

(403)

(298)

(118)

(118)

(299)

(166)

(661)

(1)

(9)

(30)

14

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
15. Candidate Qualities
Which one of these candidate qualities is MOST important in deciding who to support for the Republican nomination?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
They are a true Conservative
Experience in policy and politics
Experience in business/private sector
Can defeat Democratic nominee
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

25%
19%
36%
20%

27%
19%
33%
21%

22%
20%
39%
19%

34%
28%
30%
8%

19%
14%
45%
21%

27%
20%
32%
20%

19%
14%
38%
28%

25%
18%
36%
21%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(704)

(403)

(301)

(118)

(118)

(299)

(169)

(664)

(1)

(9)

(30)

15

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
16. Immigration
Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are living in the US?
Gender
Allowed to stay and apply for
citizenship
Allowed to stay, but no citizenship
Required to leave
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

45%
8%
47%

40%
9%
51%

49%
8%
43%

62%
14%
23%

35%
7%
58%

41%
7%
52%

48%
7%
45%

44%
8%
47%

35%
11%
54%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(804)

(847)

(281)

(307)

(725)

(337)

(1,545)

100%

(1,651)

(21)

(18)

(67)

16

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
17. Abortion
Which comes closest to your position on abortion? Do you think abortion should be...
Gender
Legal in all cases
Legal in most cases
Illegal in most cases
Illegal in all cases
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

20%
25%
38%
17%

17%
23%
43%
16%

22%
28%
33%
17%

20%
30%
34%
17%

20%
30%
34%
16%

20%
22%
39%
18%

18%
25%
43%
15%

19%
25%
38%
17%

15%
22%
55%
8%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(804)

(860)

(281)

(307)

(735)

(340)

(1,558)

100%

(1,664)

(21)

(18)

(67)

17

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error

705 Likely Republican Caucus Voters


September 3-10, 2015

5.7%

1. First Choice Republican Candidate


Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Republican Presidential caucus in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Scott Walker
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

3%
25%
1%
10%
4%
1%
0%
4%
2%
2%
0%
2%
0%
6%
3%
29%
5%
4%

0%
22%
0%
21%
4%
2%
0%
2%
2%
1%
0%
2%
1%
7%
5%
21%
4%
5%

3%
31%
1%
6%
5%
0%
0%
6%
1%
1%
0%
1%
0%
5%
2%
30%
5%
3%

6%
16%
1%
0%
5%
0%
0%
1%
2%
11%
0%
5%
0%
10%
0%
33%
6%
4%

1%
25%
0%
19%
4%
2%
0%
2%
1%
1%
0%
2%
0%
2%
4%
29%
4%
3%

4%
26%
1%
2%
5%
0%
0%
6%
2%
3%
0%
2%
0%
10%
2%
29%
5%
4%

2%
32%
0%
11%
4%
1%
0%
6%
3%
2%
0%
2%
0%
2%
3%
24%
3%
4%

3%
17%
1%
8%
5%
0%
0%
3%
1%
3%
0%
3%
0%
12%
2%
34%
7%
2%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(705)

(217)

(373)

(86)

(330)

(371)

(361)

(302)

Gender
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

3%
25%
1%
10%

2%
23%
0%
14%

4%
29%
1%
5%

1%
27%
0%
8%

1%
19%
2%
8%

3%
25%
0%
12%

4%
30%
0%
9%

3%
28%
1%
9%

1%
13%
1%
13%

continued on the next page . . .

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
continued from previous page
Age group

Gender
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Scott Walker
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

4%
1%
0%
4%
2%
2%
0%
2%
0%
6%
3%
29%
5%
4%

5%
0%
0%
5%
1%
3%
0%
2%
0%
6%
2%
32%
6%
2%

4%
2%
0%
4%
2%
1%
0%
2%
1%
7%
4%
26%
2%
7%

6%
0%
0%
1%
4%
4%
0%
5%
0%
15%
5%
23%
0%
1%

3%
4%
0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
4%
0%
2%
5%
38%
6%
4%

5%
0%
0%
6%
2%
3%
0%
1%
1%
6%
2%
27%
3%
4%

3%
0%
0%
4%
0%
1%
0%
0%
0%
3%
0%
31%
9%
4%

4%
1%
0%
4%
2%
2%
0%
1%
0%
7%
3%
26%
5%
4%

6%
0%
0%
4%
2%
5%
0%
4%
0%
1%
3%
42%
3%
2%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(705)

(403)

(302)

(118)

(118)

(300)

(169)

(534)

(138)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
2. Second Choice Republican Candidate
If you had to choose one, who would be your SECOND choice among the candidates running for the Republican Presidential nomination?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Scott Walker
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

6%
21%
1%
9%
11%
0%
0%
6%
6%
3%
0%
4%
3%
5%
1%
10%
7%
8%

6%
19%
0%
14%
12%
0%
0%
7%
7%
2%
0%
2%
5%
1%
0%
16%
3%
6%

6%
20%
1%
8%
10%
0%
0%
4%
6%
3%
0%
5%
2%
6%
1%
7%
11%
8%

3%
30%
5%
1%
12%
0%
1%
7%
4%
6%
0%
6%
2%
6%
1%
5%
3%
9%

1%
20%
0%
13%
12%
0%
0%
4%
7%
2%
0%
3%
5%
3%
1%
13%
9%
5%

10%
21%
2%
5%
10%
0%
1%
7%
4%
4%
0%
5%
0%
6%
1%
7%
5%
11%

2%
23%
0%
10%
11%
0%
0%
6%
10%
2%
0%
3%
3%
6%
1%
8%
7%
6%

10%
19%
3%
7%
12%
0%
0%
4%
1%
5%
0%
5%
2%
3%
0%
11%
7%
9%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(704)

(217)

(373)

(86)

(330)

(371)

(361)

(302)

Gender
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

6%
21%
1%
9%
11%
0%
0%
6%
6%

7%
22%
1%
9%
10%
0%
0%
3%
5%

4%
19%
1%
9%
11%
0%
0%
9%
6%

17%
21%
2%
5%
5%
0%
0%
5%
9%

6%
18%
1%
6%
13%
0%
0%
7%
4%

2%
24%
1%
11%
12%
0%
0%
3%
7%

3%
16%
1%
10%
12%
1%
0%
9%
1%

7%
20%
1%
9%
12%
0%
0%
5%
5%

1%
19%
2%
11%
8%
0%
0%
4%
7%

continued on the next page . . .

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
continued from previous page
Age group

Gender
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Rick Perry
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Scott Walker
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

3%
0%
4%
3%
5%
1%
10%
7%
8%

2%
0%
7%
3%
3%
1%
12%
10%
6%

4%
0%
1%
3%
7%
1%
8%
4%
12%

0%
0%
10%
5%
4%
0%
0%
9%
9%

0%
0%
5%
6%
3%
1%
9%
11%
10%

2%
0%
2%
1%
6%
2%
13%
5%
6%

8%
0%
2%
2%
4%
0%
11%
7%
11%

4%
0%
2%
3%
5%
1%
9%
8%
7%

1%
0%
11%
0%
3%
2%
15%
3%
12%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(704)

(403)

(301)

(118)

(118)

(299)

(169)

(534)

(138)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
3. Enthusiasm for First Choice
How would you describe your feelings right now about [Candidate Name] ... ?
Ideology
Enthusiastic
Supporting with reservations
Considering as best alternative
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

61%
35%
3%

71%
28%
1%

58%
38%
3%

45%
45%
9%

67%
32%
1%

55%
39%
6%

67%
30%
3%

54%
42%
4%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(679)

(208)

(361)

(82)

(319)

(356)

(349)

(296)

Gender
Enthusiastic
Supporting with reservations
Considering as best alternative

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

61%
35%
3%

63%
34%
3%

58%
37%
5%

61%
37%
2%

60%
36%
3%

60%
35%
5%

63%
34%
2%

60%
36%
4%

64%
34%
2%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(679)

(397)

(282)

(117)

(114)

(287)

(162)

(512)

(135)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
4. Satisfied with Washington
Which comes closest to your feelings about the way things are going in Washington?
Ideology
Enthusiastic
Satisfied but not enthusiastic
Disatisfied but not angry
Angry
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

3%
6%
28%
63%

5%
5%
20%
70%

1%
4%
29%
66%

6%
20%
41%
33%

2%
4%
17%
77%

3%
9%
38%
50%

4%
3%
26%
68%

2%
9%
30%
59%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(705)

(217)

(373)

(86)

(330)

(371)

(361)

(302)

Gender
Enthusiastic
Satisfied but not enthusiastic
Disatisfied but not angry
Angry

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

3%
6%
28%
63%

2%
4%
26%
68%

4%
10%
30%
56%

1%
10%
37%
52%

1%
9%
26%
64%

4%
6%
32%
59%

3%
3%
17%
77%

3%
6%
28%
63%

2%
3%
26%
70%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(705)

(403)

(302)

(118)

(118)

(300)

(169)

(534)

(138)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
5. Raise Taxes on Wall Street
Would you favor or oppose raising taxes on the investment firms and financial institutions that trade stocks and bonds?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Favor
Oppose
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

26%
44%
30%

18%
51%
30%

26%
46%
28%

39%
30%
31%

19%
54%
27%

32%
36%
32%

24%
48%
29%

28%
42%
30%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(705)

(217)

(373)

(86)

(329)

(371)

(361)

(302)

Gender
Favor
Oppose
Not sure

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

26%
44%
30%

27%
51%
22%

25%
35%
40%

13%
64%
23%

33%
33%
35%

22%
49%
29%

38%
30%
32%

23%
47%
30%

37%
35%
28%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(705)

(403)

(302)

(118)

(118)

(300)

(169)

(534)

(138)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
6. Compromise with Obama
In the last few years have the Republicans in Congress compromised with Barack Obama too much or too little?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Too much
The right amount
Too little
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

81%
9%
10%

94%
3%
3%

82%
10%
8%

49%
19%
32%

94%
3%
3%

69%
14%
17%

88%
5%
7%

71%
14%
15%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(701)

(214)

(372)

(86)

(329)

(368)

(358)

(302)

Gender
Too much
The right amount
Too little

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

81%
9%
10%

85%
9%
7%

76%
10%
15%

68%
13%
19%

77%
17%
6%

84%
7%
9%

87%
4%
8%

82%
9%
9%

79%
8%
13%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(701)

(403)

(298)

(118)

(118)

(299)

(166)

(530)

(138)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
7. Candidate Qualities
Which one of these candidate qualities is MOST important in deciding who to support for the Republican nomination?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
They are a true Conservative
Experience in policy and politics
Experience in business/private sector
Can defeat Democratic nominee
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

25%
19%
36%
20%

42%
12%
24%
22%

20%
21%
36%
22%

6%
28%
56%
11%

38%
12%
31%
20%

14%
25%
40%
21%

31%
20%
31%
18%

21%
19%
36%
24%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(704)

(216)

(373)

(86)

(330)

(371)

(361)

(302)

Gender
They are a true Conservative
Experience in policy and politics
Experience in business/private sector
Can defeat Democratic nominee

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

25%
19%
36%
20%

27%
19%
33%
21%

22%
20%
39%
19%

34%
28%
30%
8%

19%
14%
45%
21%

27%
20%
32%
20%

19%
14%
38%
28%

24%
20%
32%
24%

29%
18%
43%
9%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(704)

(403)

(301)

(118)

(118)

(299)

(169)

(534)

(138)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
8. Immigration
Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are living in the US?
Ideology
Allowed to stay and apply for
citizenship
Allowed to stay, but no citizenship
Required to leave
Totals
(Weighted N)

Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

21%
12%
67%

14%
11%
75%

22%
11%
67%

40%
20%
40%

12%
13%
75%

29%
12%
59%

20%
12%
68%

20%
13%
67%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(704)

(217)

(373)

(85)

(330)

(370)

(361)

(302)

Gender
Allowed to stay and apply for
citizenship
Allowed to stay, but no citizenship
Required to leave

Tea Party

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

21%
12%
67%

19%
13%
68%

24%
10%
66%

39%
23%
38%

13%
5%
82%

21%
11%
68%

16%
10%
74%

21%
12%
67%

23%
7%
70%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(704)

(402)

(301)

(118)

(118)

(299)

(169)

(533)

(138)

10

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error

646 Likely Democratic Caucus Voters


September 3-10, 2015

6.6%

1. First Choice Democratic Candidate


Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Democratic Presidential caucus in 2016?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Ideology
Joe Biden
Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

10%
1%
33%
5%
43%
1%
7%

7%
0%
27%
5%
58%
0%
3%

10%
0%
32%
3%
51%
1%
3%

9%
0%
39%
9%
32%
1%
11%

10%
3%
29%
6%
47%
1%
4%

10%
0%
36%
4%
41%
0%
8%

1%
0%
22%
4%
74%
0%
0%

11%
7%
32%
1%
45%
0%
4%

15%
0%
34%
6%
34%
1%
9%

9%
0%
45%
8%
28%
1%
10%

10%
0%
37%
5%
41%
1%
7%

10%
6%
21%
6%
49%
0%
6%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(646)

(118)

(253)

(216)

(258)

(387)

(141)

(106)

(265)

(133)

(510)

(117)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
2. Second Choice Democratic Candidate
If you had to choose one, who would be your SECOND choice among the candidates running for the Democratic Presidential nomination?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Ideology
Joe Biden
Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

26%
0%
19%
13%
19%
4%
18%

26%
0%
18%
24%
17%
0%
16%

23%
0%
27%
6%
18%
7%
18%

33%
1%
15%
15%
20%
1%
15%

25%
1%
18%
19%
16%
7%
14%

27%
0%
20%
9%
22%
2%
21%

17%
0%
31%
14%
12%
8%
19%

29%
0%
22%
7%
22%
7%
13%

26%
1%
15%
17%
20%
3%
18%

34%
0%
14%
7%
24%
1%
20%

28%
0%
19%
13%
20%
1%
18%

19%
0%
21%
13%
15%
17%
15%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(636)

(118)

(253)

(207)

(258)

(378)

(141)

(97)

(265)

(133)

(510)

(117)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
3. Enthusiasm for First Choice
How would you describe your feelings right now about [Candidate Name] ... ?
Ideology
Enthusiastic
Supporting with reservations
Considering as best alternative
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

55%
34%
11%

64%
26%
10%

58%
33%
9%

50%
41%
10%

57%
32%
12%

55%
35%
10%

56%
30%
15%

47%
39%
14%

61%
29%
10%

51%
44%
6%

57%
33%
10%

45%
40%
15%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(603)

(114)

(244)

(193)

(247)

(356)

(141)

(102)

(240)

(120)

(476)

(110)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
4. Satisfied with Washington
Which comes closest to your feelings about the way things are going in Washington?
Ideology
Enthusiastic
Satisfied but not enthusiastic
Disatisfied but not angry
Angry
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

5%
20%
44%
31%

7%
24%
42%
27%

3%
22%
44%
31%

7%
19%
43%
30%

4%
14%
45%
36%

6%
24%
43%
27%

1%
31%
50%
18%

10%
13%
44%
33%

6%
18%
42%
34%

2%
21%
41%
36%

6%
22%
44%
28%

1%
15%
48%
36%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(646)

(118)

(253)

(216)

(258)

(388)

(141)

(106)

(265)

(134)

(511)

(117)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
5. Clinton Email Server Support
Has Hillary Clintons use of a personal email and server while she was Secretary of State made you more likely or less likely to support her for the nomination?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Ideology
More likely
Has not mattered
Less likely
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

4%
74%
22%

5%
83%
12%

1%
73%
26%

6%
75%
19%

4%
73%
23%

4%
75%
21%

1%
79%
20%

5%
76%
19%

5%
70%
26%

5%
77%
18%

5%
75%
20%

0%
77%
22%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(645)

(118)

(253)

(216)

(258)

(387)

(141)

(106)

(265)

(133)

(510)

(117)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
6. Clinton Administration
Do you think the policies of a Hillary Clinton Administration would ...
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Ideology
Favor the rich
Favor the middle class
Favor the poor
Treat all groups equally
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

24%
52%
6%
19%

18%
69%
1%
12%

24%
55%
4%
17%

18%
48%
8%
26%

30%
52%
4%
14%

19%
52%
7%
22%

28%
68%
0%
5%

34%
50%
7%
9%

23%
42%
8%
27%

11%
57%
8%
24%

18%
56%
6%
20%

43%
39%
3%
14%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(642)

(118)

(252)

(214)

(258)

(385)

(141)

(106)

(265)

(130)

(508)

(117)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
7. Sanders Administration
Do you think the policies of a Bernie Sanders Administration would ...
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Ideology
Favor the rich
Favor the middle class
Favor the poor
Treat all groups equally
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

4%
43%
28%
25%

2%
46%
29%
23%

6%
43%
25%
26%

1%
42%
31%
27%

2%
49%
32%
18%

6%
39%
25%
31%

1%
37%
40%
22%

4%
48%
34%
14%

6%
39%
22%
33%

3%
52%
21%
23%

5%
43%
26%
27%

2%
47%
29%
22%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(637)

(116)

(252)

(211)

(258)

(379)

(141)

(105)

(260)

(130)

(502)

(117)

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker


Iowa
8. Immigration
Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are living in the US?
Ideology
Allowed to stay and apply for
citizenship
Allowed to stay, but no citizenship
Required to leave
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

75%
7%
18%

91%
4%
5%

77%
10%
14%

68%
4%
28%

78%
8%
14%

74%
6%
21%

80%
13%
7%

73%
4%
24%

71%
5%
24%

81%
6%
13%

76%
7%
17%

78%
4%
18%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(643)

(118)

(253)

(213)

(255)

(387)

(141)

(106)

(265)

(130)

(507)

(117)