One of the silver spots in the otherwise gloomy agricultural scenario in our country is

the Poultry Industry. This sector has been growing at more than 10% per annum and
has the potential to grow more at more than 15% if only they can securitize their feed
requirement at competitive prices.
More than two decades back I was discussing with a friend as to how he saw the
Soymeal and corn exports going forward. His reply was that India within five years will
cease to be a net exporter of meal and corn and may actually start importing the same.
His words though prophetic did not come true till 20 years later (still partly).
Contrary to all predictions in the past the Soya crop continued to grow from strength
to strength. In due course of time Soya industry became its own worst enemy as more
capacity started chasing too few beans. The crop increase started plateauing and Soya
industry is being pushed to the wall and is fighting a losing battle. The plight of Soya
industry is being felt by the Poultry industry as well by way of ridiculously high prices
for meal which have no co-relation to international values.

Corn
The story of corn is relatively better but the writing is on the wall and going forward
availability is going to get tighter and tighter.
Soya crop at around 9/10 million and corn at around 22 /23 mln tons and not growing
should ring alarm bells in poultry industry. The period of complacency is over and the
industry will have to seriously start looking at the future unfolding scenario and
calibrate their responses accordingly.
Rising income levels and change in food habits is resulting in more people shifting to
protein rich diets. No wonder the poultry sector is growing at a healthy clip of 10% and
in future has the potential to top 15% growth. The current requirement of Soya meal
for the animal feed sector is in excess of 4 million tons and growing year after year.
On the one hand we have growth in domestic Consumption of Soya Meal and on the
other the availability of the same is shrinking. This is in spite of the fact that our meal
exports have practically become zero. Soya crop which used to be closer to 10 million
tons is now being talked about at 8 to 8.5 million tons. With farmers becoming
reluctant sellers in view of diminishing returns the bean availability for crushing
industry is negligible. No wonder the poultry industry has to fight for securitizing its
meal.
The situation of corn is relatively better and supply still outstrips demand, but for
how long? We understand about 60% of the corn produced in India goes for the animal
feed sector. The poultry sector consumes about 44% of corn produced in the country.
With India producing about 22/23 million tons of corn we are still not in trouble.
However this situation can change dramatically in next few years as with few big plants
coming up for producing starch and ethanol and demand for animal feed also
skyrocketing.
Till now our country has been able to provide both Soya Meal and corn for the feed
industry albeit at very high prices compared to world values. Question remains
whether we would be able to meet demand going forward or not.
As the cities are urbanizing and population is migrating in search of better living
standards food habits are changing big time. Analysts tell us there is a direct co relation
between increase in wages and shift of family from consuming staple based diets to a
high protein one including fruits and vegetables as well as dairy and meat. This point is
corroborated by the fact that in 2006 calorie requirement from livestock was 184

which will grow beyond 300 by the end of next decade. The writing is very clear on the
wall; the next decade belongs to Poultry and Feed Industry. Whether the supply of
feed ingredients would keep pace is a moot question?
We have tried to develop different scenarios and the potential requirement of Soya
meal and Corn by 2025. Some basic assumptions are as below:
Requirement has been plotted on basis of 12 and 15 % growth.
Soya Meal inclusion in broiler is assumed at 25% and in layer feed at 30%.
Corn inclusion in broiler feed is assumed at 60% and in layer feed at 50%
Consumption growth of Soya and corn in other sectors like human and industrial is
assumed at 10%
Exports have been assumed as Zero
On the basis of above assumptions the picture which emerges is really scary and
should shake up the policy makers from their deep slumber. The total requirement of
Soya beans and corn for taking care of domestic consumption including Poultry is as
below.