The 2010 Brazilian Presidential Election

A Primer – Part 1

On the first Sunday in October, 2010, the Brazilian electorate will go to the polls to elect
their fourth President since the inception of the 1988 Constitution. (In fact, the person
taking office in January, 2011 will be the fifth President under the 1988 Constitution, but
the fourth elected. President. Itamar Franco, the second President was elected Vice
President, and appointed President after the resignation of Fernando Collar de Mello.)

After eight years of government by Fernando Henrique Cardoso (“FHC”) of the Social
Democrats (“PSDB”), followed by eight years by President Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva
(“Lula”) of the Worker`s Party (“PT”), these two political parties will compete again to
win the Presidency for the next four years.

This post will outline some of the basic parameters of Brazilian elections, and will draw
comparisons from some other countries, including the USA and France.

The Winner

The winner of the Brazilian Presidential election will be the candidate that wins 50% of
the votes cast, plus 1. Like the Presidential elections in France, if no candidate receives
the required 50% +1 vote on the first ballot, there will be a second ballot held on the last
Sunday in October. Under the 1988 constitution there have been five elections to date, of
which three have gone to a second ballot. FHC won both of his elections on the first
ballot.

In the USA, the winner is not the person who necessarily gains a plurality of votes, as
Vice-President Al Gore discovered to his chagrin in 2000. In the USA, each state sends a
number of delegates, the number being roughly determined by the population of each
state, to a meeting of the Electoral College, and the candidate receiving a plurality of the
delegates wins. The delegates of each State will vote for the person that wins a plurality
of votes in the State, and this could be less than 50% + 1 of the votes if there are more
than two candidates. This creates the need to win a plurality of votes within individual
states so that the maximum number of Electoral College votes may be gained. Under the
Brazilian system, the winning of individual votes is key, but the winning of 50% +1 of
the votes in any one particular state is less important than in the USA. To give an
example, Lula won 86.8% of votes cast in the State of Amazonas in the second round of
2006. Under the system in the USA, the candidate that was not of the Lula`s Workers
Party would ignore the State completely as none of the Electoral College votes would be
winnable. However, under Brazilian rules it may be important for the PSDB to win, say,
25% of the vote in Amazonas in 2010 in order to reach their desired total of 50% + 1 in
the country as a whole.
The Electorate

Figure 1 shows the number of eligible voters for the 2010 elections as of January 2010,
being 132.3 million. The chart shows the 26 States, The Federal District of Brasilia, and
the Brazilians living outside Brazil (“Exterior”). The largest State, Sao Paulo comprises
22.4% of the electorate, the largest five States comprise nearly 55%, and the largest 10
States more than 76%. The Brazilian electorate is very dynamic in terms of growth. The
number of voters for the first election that President Lula won in 2002 was 115.2 million
which seven years later has reached 132.3 million, an increase of 17.1 million, or 14.8%,
or 2.1% per annum.

Figure 1
Electorate by State, January 2010
State Electorate % Cumulative
SAO PAULO 29,625,005 22.39% 22.39%
MINAS GERAIS 14,187,471 10.72% 33.11%
RIO DE JANEIRO 11,363,479 8.59% 41.70%
BAHIA 9,278,845 7.01% 48.71%
RIO GRANDE DO
SUL 7,981,669 6.03% 54.74%
PARANA 7,401,921 5.59% 60.33%
PERNAMBUCO 6,112,733 4.62% 64.95%
CEARA 5,722,711 4.32% 69.28%
PARA 4,611,595 3.48% 72.76%
SANTA
CATARINA 4,408,213 3.33% 76.09%
MARANHAO 4,188,020 3.16% 79.26%
GOIAS 3,938,664 2.98% 82.23%
PARAIBA 2,670,362 2.02% 84.25%
ESPIRITO SANTO 2,472,943 1.87% 86.12%
PIAUI 2,198,838 1.66% 87.78%
RIO GRANDE DO
NORTE 2,182,872 1.65% 89.43%
MATO GROSSO 2,030,965 1.53% 90.97%
ALAGOAS 1,993,455 1.51% 92.47%
AMAZONAS 1,954,829 1.48% 93.95%
DISTRITO
FEDERAL 1,757,662 1.33% 95.28%
MATO GROSSO
DO SUL 1,644,110 1.24% 96.52%
SERGIPE 1,379,225 1.04% 97.56%
RONDONIA 1,043,078 0.79% 98.35%
TOCANTINS 921,168 0.70% 99.05%
ACRE 452,023 0.34% 99.39%
AMAPA 395,443 0.30% 99.69%
RORAIMA 252,513 0.19% 99.88%
EXTERIOR 160,192 0.12% 100.00%
TOTAL 132,330,004 100.00% 100.00%
Source: Superior Tribunal of Elections
Political Parties

There are 27 political parties in Brazil (please see Figure 2).

Figure 2
Party Chamber Senate

PMDB PARTIDO DO MOVIMENTO X X

DEMOCRÁTICO BRASILEIRO

PTB PARTIDO TRABALHISTA X X

BRASILEIRO

PDT PARTIDO DEMOCRÁTICO X X

TRABALHISTA
PT PARTIDO DOS X X
TRABALHADORES
DEM DEMOCRATAS X X

PCdoB PARTIDO COMUNISTA DO X X

BRASIL
PSB PARTIDO SOCIALISTA X X
BRASILEIRO
PSDB PARTIDO DA SOCIAL X X
DEMOCRACIA BRASILEIRA
PTC PARTIDO TRABALHISTA X
CRISTÃO
PSC PARTIDO SOCIAL CRISTÃO X X

PMN PARTIDO DA MOBILIZAÇÃO X

NACIONAL
PRP PARTIDO REPUBLICANO
PROGRESSISTA
PPS PARTIDO POPULAR X
SOCIALISTA
PV  PARTIDO VERDE X X

PTdoB PARTIDO TRABALHISTA DO X

BRASIL
PP PARTIDO PROGRESSISTA X X

PSTU PARTIDO SOCIALISTA DOS

TRABALHADORES
UNIFICADO (ANTIGO PRT)
PCB PARTIDO COMUNISTA
BRASILEIRO
PRTB PARTIDO RENOVADOR
TRABALHISTA BRASILEIRO
PHS PARTIDO HUMANISTA DA X
SOLIDARIEDADE
PSDC PARTIDO SOCIAL
DEMOCRATA CRISTÃO
PCO PARTIDO DA CAUSA
OPERÁRIA
PTN PARTIDO TRABALHISTA
NACIONAL
PSL PARTIDO SOCIAL LIBERAL

PRB PARTIDO REPUBLICANO X X

BRASILEIRO

PSOL PARTIDO SOCIALISMO E X X

LIBERDADE
PR PARTIDO DA REPÚBLICA X X

Of these 27, 19 are represented in the Federal Chamber of Deputies (although only four
Parties have more than 10% of the Deputies –PMDB, PT, PSDB & DEMS), and 14 are
represented in the Senate with the same four parties being the only ones with more than
10% of the Senators. Due to the number of parties and the lesser importance of ideology
in Brazil there is much movement between parties as their fortunes fluctuate, and as
individual members evaluate their opportunities. While candidates for the Presidency are
not required to have a party affiliation, in practical terms party affiliations, giving a
national organization, and a capacity for fundraising, are vital.

Compulsory Voting

A second difference with the USA, and France is that voting is compulsory. For voters
that fail to exercise their civic duty there is a fine which varies from State to State, with a
maximum of approximately R$ 70.00. Once the voter has entered the voting booth he is
not obliged to vote for anyone on the ballot and may void his vote. Thus, voter turnout,
which is such a major issue in the USA and France, is not a problem in Brazil.

Ideology

Ideology plays a relatively small part in Brazilian elections. To some extent the role of
ideology continues to be driven as a reaction to the period of military dictatorship
obliging all candidates to reaffirm their belief in democracy. The Communist and
Workers Party, and some other socialist parties have charters that call for the
nationalization of industry. But in practice, the need for coalitions as well as the relatively
low educational level of Brazilian voters has meant that politics is more driven by choices
between personalities than by a rigorous review of party platforms based upon ideologies.

Part 2 will follow with a discussion of the regions where the PT and the PSDB are
strongest, and those regions where the competition for votes in 2010 will be the fiercest.