VOTERS BEHAVIOUR AND ELECTORAL PROCESS IN NIGERIA.

A CASE STUDY OF 4TH REPUBLIC (1999 - 2011).

CHAPTER ONE.
1.1

Background to the Study.

Elections in Nigeria continue to elicit more than casual interest by Nigerian scholars due to
the fact that despite the appreciation that only credible election can consolidate and sustain
the countrys democracy, over the years, Nigeria continues to witness with growing
disappointments and apprehension inability to conduct peaceful, free and fair, open elections
whose results are widely accepted and respected across the country (Igbuzor, 2010; Osumah
& Aghemelo, 2010, Ekweremadu, 2011). All the elections that have ever been conducted in
Nigeria since independence have generated increasingly bitter controversies and grievances
on a national scale because of the twin problems of mass violence and fraud that have
become central elements of the history of elections and of the electoral process in the country
(Gberie, 2011). Despite the marked improvement in the conduct of the 2011 elections, the
process was not free from malpractices and violence (Bekoe, 2011; Gberie, 2011; National
Democratic Institute, 2012). Thus over the years, electoral processes in the history of
Nigerias democratic governance have continued to be marred by extraordinary displays of
rigging, dodgy, do or die affair, ballot snatching at gun points, violence and acrimony,
thuggery, boycotts, threats and criminal manipulations of voters' list, brazen falsification of
election results, the use of security agencies against political opponents and the intimidation
of voters (Rawlence and Albin-Lackey, 2007; Nnadozie, 2007; Adigbuo, 2008, Onike, 2010
Omotola, 2010, Bekoe, 2011). In fact elections remain one of the leading notable sources of
conflict which often result to confrontations that continue to threaten the political stability
and peace of the nation (Gueye & Hounkpe, 2010; Idowu, 2010).

Scholars have attributed this problem of election credibility in Nigeria to the weak
institutionalization of the agencies of electoral administration, particularly the Independent
National Electoral Commission (INEC), the political parties and security agencies in the
country arguing that elections can only engender the consolidation of democracy in Nigeria if
the electoral processes are reformed in ways that fundamentally address the autonomy and
capability of INEC to discharge its responsibilities effectively (Obi, 2008) and the security
agencies high degree of neutrality, alertness, and commitment to maintaining law and order in
the electoral process (Adigbuo, 2008; Omotola, 2010; Idowu, 2010). Observations reveal
that the mode of involving Security Forces and how they carry out their duties while
participating in the electoral process in Nigeria are part of the sources of violence and
insecurity during elections (Gueye & Hounkpe, 2010). Unfortunately, there is however no
informed emphasis on the central role played by the security agency during elections in
Nigeria (Idowu, 2010).
Existing literature tends to be based on the reports of election monitoring and not on
analytical studies (Kohnert, 2004; Obi, 2008). Few of the existing analyses on the subject
deal essentially with the mutually reinforcing questions of political violence and electoral
fraud and only touch upon the security agencies tangentially. Outside the developed
democracies, and recently from the Latin American and post-communist European
experiences, very little is known about the role of security agencies in achieving credible
election. This knowledge gap is most acute in Nigeria and Africa in general. Against this
backdrop, this essay seeks to empirically investigate the relationships between the role of the
security agencies and the quest for credible elections in Nigeria. The questions that this study
seeks to answer therefore include the following; what has been the role of the security
agencies in the electoral politics Nigerias Fourth Republic? How have they been carrying out
their functions of ensuring security of voters, candidates and election materials during

elections and how can they be positioned for electoral security needed for the desired credible
elections in Nigerias democratic government?
1.2

Statement of Problem
Ojie (2006) states that in a democracy, those whose responsibility is to exercise political
authorities in a society perform it with the explicit consent and genuine mandate expressed at
periodic intervals by the electorate through an open, free and fair electoral process. This
implies that democracy must be a system of government where the people dictate the pace
with the general consent of the governed. Unfortunately, Nigerias elections have so far
thwarted the foundation upon which democracy is built due to election rigging. Nigeria is in
the category where election management is less successful. The rules guiding elections are
ambiguous, ever changing or easily maneuvered; the electoral regulations and rules is
institutionally less effective; the political bigwigs are the gladiators in their conduct; hence
the electorates are often powerless as they live in the mercy of the political stalwarts and
political outcomes.

The political barons, who have special interest, impose unpopular

candidates and employ every form of political gimmick to influence the election in their
favours against the general will of the people.
Election riggings in Nigeria were evident in 1964/1965, 1979, 1983, 1993,1999,2003,2007
and 2011 general elections. Between 1999 and 2011, election riggings have accompanied
with bloodshed and this have claimed the lives of so many Nigerians, especially popular
contestants, and these political killings are executed by hired assassins from wicked
politicians who want power by all means. The contemporary political barons in Nigeria
impose gullible electoral officers who employ various tricks to win election for their
employers to the detriment of the masses and popular candidates. This, however, has made
the system very boring and many have resorted to stay at home during electioneering for fear

of being intimidated or coerced to vote against their will and this is too bad for a country that
is desperate to institutionalize a consolidated democracy.
Nigerian democracy aims to ensure political stability and promote fundamental human rights.
Elections in Nigeria which should have been a prelude for achieving a stabilize government
accompanied with peoples consent have contradicted these standards because of election
rigging. This is a serious concern hence the stability and secured environment needed for the
success of democracy have been severely jeopardized. Elections conducted since Nigerias
independence have been played in a do or die affair and this has made the peace-loving
Nigerians to be dead scared in exercising their voting rights hence the suicidal nature of the
politics. Evident has shown that the rate of citizen participation in elections these days have
drastically reduced due to the limited choice or lack of qualified candidates. Lacks of
candidates with vision have made the electorates politically weak. Sometimes, the electorates
are disenfranchised and the alienated political barons employ the use of coercion to seize
power or what Ihonvbere (1989) painted in a general picture of Africas situation as, rulership became permanent, politics became Hobbesian: power was fought by all means and the
struggle for power became the overriding worry. Adekanye (1990:2) notes that because of the
history of electoral fraud, elections in the country have often been associated with political
tension, crisis, and even violence. Actually, politics is seen as the only game in town, and it
was played with deadly seriousness for the winner won everything and the loser lost
everything.
This quest to win election by all means has also claimed the lives of both the electorates and
some popular candidates by some hoodlums who want to control the government by dubious
means. As a result, those who have the interest of Nigerians at heart have resorted to shun
politics for fear of facing a sudden death in the process and this has posed a serious threat to
Nigerian democracy and its consolidation. Worse still, electoral body which would have been

neutral, and ensure a free and fair elections have been biased because in some cases, they are
employed by some power brokers to serve as a rescue mission to some illegitimate candidates
to the detriment of popular candidates and Nigerian electorates. To ensure that their
unpopular candidates emerged victorious in elections, they have seen election rigging as a
way out against the general wish of the popular candidates, electorates and the good of
Nigerian democracy. Kurfi (2005:101) has observed, rigging is almost synonymous with
Nigerian elections. The main aim of election rigging or malpractice is to frustrate the
democratic aspirations of citizens who have voted or would have voted into office someone
instead of the victor. These days, votes dont count because come rain, come sun, electoral
body must deliver and no one questions their decisions. In fact, the elections conducted in
Nigeria have been cruelly contested that the success of the democratic order has been
compromised. This ugly electoral malpractice and rigging have a negative effect on Nigerias
democratic future because the trend is increasing instead of reducing. These trends have
actually undermined the chances of successful elections and consolidation of democracy in
Nigeria.
1.3

Objectives of the Study

The major objective of this study is to analyse Voters Behaviour and Electoral Process in
Nigeria using the democratic 4th Republic as a case study (1999-2011)
Other objectives include:
2.

To determine the level of political awareness among the Nigerian electorate.

3.

To identify voting behavior and verify factors responsible for the voting pattern of

electorates.

1.4

Research Questions
1. What is the level of political awareness among the Nigerian electorate?
2. To what extent has the level of political awareness influenced the political process before
and during elections?
3. What factors influenced the voting behaviour of electorates in the 4 th republic Presidential
Elections?

1.5

Significance of the Study

The work will be of immense benefit to politicians, government agencies and other
stakeholders who will appreciate the need to embark on sustained and an enduring
enlightenment political campaigns rather than their periodic ritual which is only embarked on
during elections as it is customary in Nigeria.
To media professionals who offer consultancy services to politicians as well as
package their campaigns, they will see the need to re-engineer their tactics and strategies for
optimal result.
It will also contribute greatly to the academic community by providing insight into the
changing voting pattern of Nigerian electorate. Interested scholars can thus, build on findings
of the study.

1.6

Chapterization
Chapter 1-

Background to the study

Chapter 2-

Literature review and theoretical framework

Chapter 3-

Voters Behaviour and Electoral Process in Nigeria (Historical Analysis)

Chapter 4-

Effects of voters behaviour on outcome of elections in Nigeria ( a case study

of democratic fourth republic)

Chapter 5-

Summary, conclusion and recommendation