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Forecasting
Other References
O Forecasting Methods And Applications by
Wilson
and
9/2/2015
Unit of Forecasting
O Item (SKUs)
O Region (Continent, Country, City etc.)
O Channel (Online, Superstores, Mom and Pop
Stores etc.)
ITEM
REGION
CHANNEL
9/2/2015
Multi-Tier Forecasting
O Reconciliation of Forecasts
Aggregation of Forecasts (Bottom-up)
Disaggregation of Forecasts (Top-down)
O Bias
O MAD
1
n
O MSE
1
n
O MAPE
1
n
1
n
O SMAPE
i 1
i 1
Ft
At Ft
i 1
i 1
Ft
At Ft
At
At Ft
i 1
Ft
2
6
9/2/2015
Example
At
136
Ft
122.33
142
127.67
125
131.33
150
134.33
121
139
115
132
Example
At
136
Ft
122.33
Et
13.67
|Et |
13.67
Et ^2
186.8689
|Et |/At
0.100515
142
127.67
14.33
14.33
125
131.33
205.3489
0.100915
-6.33
6.33
40.0689
0.05064
150
134.33
15.67
15.67
245.5489
0.104467
121
139
-18
18
324
0.14876
115
132
-17
17
289
0.147826
Bias 2.34
MSE 215.139
MAD 14.167
MAPE 10.89%
8
9/2/2015
RSFE
M AD
Example
At
Ft
Et
|Et |
MAD
RSFE
TS
136
122.33
13.67
13.67
13.67
13.67
1.000
142
127.67
14.33
14.33
14
28
2.000
125
131.33
-6.33
6.33
11.44
21.67
1.894
150
134.33
15.67
15.67
12.5
37.34
2.987
121
139
-18
18
13.6
19.34
1.422
115
132
-17
17
14.17
2.34
0.165
10
9/2/2015
Classification of Forecasting
Techniques
O Qualitative Forecasting Techniques:
11
Research:
Interviews,
surveys
O Panel consensus: S & OP
O Historical analogy: Similar Products
O Delphi method: Group of Experts,
Iterative
12
9/2/2015
O Causality Based
Multiple Linear Regression
O Others
TimeSeriesbasedMethods
D(i ), i 1,..., t
Historical
Data
Time Series
Model
D (t ), 1,2,...
Forecasts
9/2/2015
TimeSeriesBasedMethods
O Components of Time Series
O Level
O Trend
Microsoft Excel
Worksheet
Microsoft Excel
Worksheet
O Seasonality
(Both
Multiplicative)
O Cyclicality
O Random
Additive
and
k period simple
average is given as
Ft
moving
At 1 At 2 ... At k
k
16
9/2/2015
as
Ft w1 At 1 w2 At 2 ... wk At k
Example
O The
9/2/2015
Ft Ft 1 At 1 Ft 1
0 1
is known as the smoothing constant
19
Alpha
F(t)
734.7236
734.7236
742.8882
755.9625
775.5982
787.4665
810.1409
837.9477
842.2688
853.9357
858.886
850.3634
853.9473
0.2
E(t)=X(t)-F(t)
0
40.8233
65.3712
98.1787
59.3412
113.372
139.0340
21.6055
58.3343
24.7515
-42.6128
17.9192
-126.8908
20
10
9/2/2015
Ft Lt Tt
Lt Ft 1 At 1 Ft 1
Tt Lt Lt 1 1 Tt 1
21
Sales
1071.367
1105.261
1125.648
1085.552
1093.749
1011.672
917.6388
1017.165
22
11
9/2/2015
F t a b .t
23
F t a b1 . y 1 b 2 . y 2 . . . b k y k
24
12
9/2/2015
BassDiffusionMethodfor
NewProductsForecasting
O N(t) Cumulative no. of adopters from time of
O
O
O
O
launch to time t
S(t)=N(t)-N(t-1) i.e. no. of new adopters added
in the time interval [t-1,t]
S(t)=[p+(q/m) N(t-1)] [m-N(t-1)]
p
coefficient of innovation
q
coefficient of imitation
OtherMethods(Not
inthesyllabus)
13
9/2/2015
Winters
Seasonality)
Method
(Multiplicative
Ft Lt Tt St
Lt
At
1 Lt 1 Tt 1
St
Tt Lt Lt 1 1 Tt 1
A
St t m 1 St m
Lt m
27
Croston Method
O Whenever demand series has many zeroes, the
See: http://help.sap.com/saphelp_scm70/helpdata/en/72/a2ca53f1a1214be10000000a174cb4/content.htm
28
14