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This document discusses the Philippine economy and national debt. It notes persistent economic problems like inadequate infrastructure, weak investor confidence, and high poverty. It also discusses that the population is young with many mothers having low education and higher fertility rates. While remittances from overseas Filipino workers helped the economy during the global crisis, national government debt nearly doubled from 2008 to around 4 trillion pesos, partly due to off-budget deficits. However, the economy could still outgrow this debt with modest deficits if off-budget deficits are eliminated and sustained surpluses from remittances prevent problems from the growing government deficit.
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02 Can the Economy Outgrow the National Debt - Dr. Felipe M. Medalla
This document discusses the Philippine economy and national debt. It notes persistent economic problems like inadequate infrastructure, weak investor confidence, and high poverty. It also discusses that the population is young with many mothers having low education and higher fertility rates. While remittances from overseas Filipino workers helped the economy during the global crisis, national government debt nearly doubled from 2008 to around 4 trillion pesos, partly due to off-budget deficits. However, the economy could still outgrow this debt with modest deficits if off-budget deficits are eliminated and sustained surpluses from remittances prevent problems from the growing government deficit.
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This document discusses the Philippine economy and national debt. It notes persistent economic problems like inadequate infrastructure, weak investor confidence, and high poverty. It also discusses that the population is young with many mothers having low education and higher fertility rates. While remittances from overseas Filipino workers helped the economy during the global crisis, national government debt nearly doubled from 2008 to around 4 trillion pesos, partly due to off-budget deficits. However, the economy could still outgrow this debt with modest deficits if off-budget deficits are eliminated and sustained surpluses from remittances prevent problems from the growing government deficit.
Авторское право:
Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Доступные форматы
Скачайте в формате PDF, TXT или читайте онлайн в Scribd
Felipe M. Medalla UP School of Economics Persistent Philippine economic problems that were aggravated by the global financial crisis
• Tight Fiscal Situation and Poor
Revenue Performance • Inadequate Infrastructure • Weak Investor Confidence due to Governance concerns • Small Narrow, and Stagnant Industrial Base • High Incidence of Hunger and poverty • Dismal Education Outcomes A country with a very young population…. …the vast majority of whom were born from mothers who have low education (and have more children than they “desire”) Fertility by Mother’s Desired Actual Education Fertility Fertility No education 4.1 5.3 Elementary 3.3 5.0 High school 2.5 3.5 College or higher 2.2 2.7 The poorest forty percent of the mothers account for 56% of the births…
Fertility by Wealth Quintile Desired Actual
Wealth index quintile Fertility Fertility
Lowest 3.8 5.9
Second 3.1 4.6 Middle 2.6 3.5 Fourth 2.2 2.8 Highest 1.7 2.0 And many of their children don’t finish elementary school. Enrollment growth has lagged behind the growth of school-age population. National Government Debt Nearly Doubled From 2.2 to 4.2 Trillion pesos. A big part of the increase in the public debt is not due to the national government ‘s budget deficit In a stable macroeconomic environment, the economy can out-grow the debt even with modest deficits provided that off-budget deficits can be eliminated. The Philippine economy was less affected by the global crisis because exports of people of services were less affected than the global trade of goods and services. PHILIPPINES: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 2008, in million U.S. dollars Totals CURRENT ACCOUNT Goods Services Income Transfer s Receipts 48,202 10,194 5,973 15,780 80,149 Payments 60,784 8,756 5,827 555 75,922 Surplus/Deficit -12,582 1,438 146 15,225 4,227 CAPITAL ACCOUNT Direct Inv. Portfolio Derivative Other Inv. s Net Inflow/Outflow 1,283 -2,584 -144 -469 -1,914 NET UNCLASSIFIED ITEMS -2,224
OVERALL BOP POSITION 89
But remittances were much more resilient than anticipated. Because of OFW remittance we have a BOP current account surplus and a large and growing international reserves. That we have a BOP Current Acct Surplus also means that there are more than enough savings (low rates of investments meant that much of the OFW savings ended up as reserves of the BSP) If not for the large excess savings, the ballooning government deficit could have caused a lot of problems . Unlike what happened in the past, the growth in the budget deficit did not cause a spike in interest rates.