Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 679 Calgary Confederation residents by Smart IVR

on September 14, 2015. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed.
Margin of Error: +/- 3.73%, 19 times out of 20.
Results were weighed by age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

LIBERALS, TORIES TIED IN CALGARY CONFEDERATION

September 16, 2015 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds Liberal candidate Matt
Grant in a statistical tie with Conservative candidate Len Webber . The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll
has a margin of error of +/- 3.73%, 19 times out of 20.
Grants small lead is fuelled by a staggering 50% level of support amongst those 18-34, but he also
leads narrowly among those certain to vote.
Calgary has turned in to a hotbed of competitive races in this federal election, with Calgary
Confederation expected to be a neck and neck race, a statistical tie with Liberal Matt Grant edging
out Conservative Len Webber by a single point, said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet
Research.
Turnout and youth engagement will be a key factor in this election and the Liberals Matt Grant
holds a commanding lead among those 18-34, not surprising given his youth. This generational
change appeal is a big advantage in that age group where he leads by more than 30 points, 50%
to just 17% for both his opponents.
The advantage for Conservative Len Webber lies in the undecided voters who are leaning, where
he leads with 18% to just 7% for the NDP and 6% for the Liberals. There is still a significant portion
of truly undecided voters, and with more than a month to go to election day, there is plenty of
opportunity to convince these voters by all the campaigns in Calgary Confederation.
This will be a riding to watch on October 19th, he finished.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently,
Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, President, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

If the federal election were

held today,
which
candidate would you support?
LEANING
AND
DECIDED

35
30
25
20
15
10

All Voters

Len Webber (CPC)

Len Webber (CPC)

Kirk Heuser (NDP)
Matt Grant (LPC)
Natalie Odd GPC)
Undecided
Sample
Len Webber (CPC)
Kirk Heuser (NDP)
Matt Grant (LPC)
Natalie Odd GPC)

Kirk Heuser (NDP)

6%

38%

19%

37%

14%

5%

33%

16%

32%

Decided Only

Matt Grant (LPC)

18-34
17%
17%
50%
6%
10%
96

35-49
38%
17%
24%
4%
18%
101

Certain
32%
16%
33%
6%

Natalie Odd GPC)

50-64
41%
15%
28%
5%
12%
218
Likely
41%
12%
31%
4%

65+
39%
13%
18%
8%
21%
264

Undecided

Male
31%
15%
35%
5%
13%
306

Might
22%
13%
25%
4%

Female
32%
17%
30%
6%
15%
373

Unlikely
22%
18%
40%
7%

A4

LEANINGtoward
AND DECIDED
And which party are you leaning
voting for? (UNDECIDED ONLY)

18%

7%

6%
1%
67%

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a

chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG
MIGHT CHANGE
UNDECIDED

CPC
76%
19%
4%

NDP
50%
46%
4%

LPC
53%
36%
11%

A5

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming federal election?

Certain
Likely
Might
Unlikely
And if the federal election were held today, which candidate would you support?
Len Webber of the Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
Kirk Heuser of the NDP led by Thomas Mulcair
Matt Grant of the Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Natalie Odd of the Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
And, which party are you leaning toward voting for? [UD ONLY]
Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
NDP led by Thomas Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Not Sure
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance
you will change your mind before the next election? [DECIDED VOTERS ONLY]
Strong Support
Might Change Your Mind
Not Sure