4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Style
Gail
Isis
Entice
Assault
Teri
Electra
Stephanie
Seduced
Anita
Daphne

Mean
Forecast
1,017
1,042
1,358
2,525
1,100
2,150
1,113
4,017
3,296
2,383

Probability of
Style
Sell Out
Gail
0.86
Isis
0.86
Entice
0.86
Assault
0.86
Teri
0.86
Electra
0.86
Stephanie
0.86
Seduced
0.86
Anita
0.86
Daphne
0.86

Style
Gail
Isis
Entice
Assault
Teri
Electra
Stephanie
Seduced
Anita
Daphne

Mean
Forecast
1,017
1,042
1,358
2,525
1,100
2,150
1,113
4,017
3,296
2,383

Std Deviation in
Demand
388
646
496
680
762
807
1,048
1,113
2,094
1,394
Total Production

Order
Amount
Std. Devs
Price
Cost
606
(1.06) $
110 $
50
357
(1.06) $
99 $
50
832
(1.06) $
80 $
50
1,804
(1.06) $
90 $
50
292
(1.06) $
123 $
50
1,294
(1.06) $
173 $
50
2
(1.06) $
133 $
50
2,837
(1.06) $
73 $
50
1,075
(1.06) $
93 $
50
905
(1.06) $
148 $
50
10,003
-1.0605 Number of Standard Deviations
Probability of Sell out
86%

Probability
Expect Cost of Last Item is
Lost Sale
Discounted
$
51.33
0.14
$
41.92
0.14
$
25.67
0.14
$
34.22
0.14
$
62.45
0.14
$
105.23
0.14
$
71.01
0.14
$
19.68
0.14
$
36.79
0.14
$
83.84
0.14

Std Deviation in
Demand
388
646
496
680
762
807
1,048
1,113
2,094
1,394
Total Production

Expect Cost of
Discount
$
7.22
$
7.22
$
7.22
$
7.22
$
7.22
$
7.22
$
7.22
$
7.22
$
7.22
$
7.22

Order
Probability of Sell
Amount
Out
1,060
0.46
1,033
0.51
1,199
0.63
2,429
0.56
1,279
0.41
2,598
0.29
1,443
0.38
3,480
0.69
3,097
0.54
2,965
0.34
20,584

Ratio
Rec. Ord. Q
0.55
1,061.30
0.49
1,033.82
0.38
1,199.95
0.44
2,430.00
0.59
1,280.25
0.71
2,598.90
0.62
1,444.34
0.32
3,481.05
0.46
3,098.17
0.66
2,966.21
20,593.99
Probability
Expect Cost Last Item is
of Lost Sale Discounted
$
27.33
0.54
$
24.78
0.49
$
18.77
0.37
$
22.25
0.44
$
29.71
0.59
$
35.60
0.71
$
31.23
0.62
$
15.76
0.31
$
23.13
0.46
$
33.13
0.66

Salvage
Value
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
ndard Deviations

Expect
Probability
Assoc. Std Probability Cost of Last Item is
Dev
of Sell Out Lost Sale Discounted
0.11
0.45 $ 27.27
0.55
(0.01)
0.51 $ 24.75
0.49
(0.32)
0.63 $ 18.75
0.38
(0.14)
0.56 $ 22.22
0.44
0.24
0.41 $ 29.67
0.59
0.56
0.29 $ 35.55
0.71
0.32
0.38 $ 31.20
0.62
(0.48)
0.68 $ 15.75
0.32
(0.09)
0.54 $ 23.12
0.46
0.42
0.34 $ 33.11
0.66

Expect Cost
of Discount
$
27.22
$
24.72
$
18.71
$
22.19
$
29.65
$
35.53
$
31.18
$
15.74
$
23.11
$
33.09

Estimated
Derivative
$
(0.11)
$
(0.06)
$
(0.06)
$
(0.05)
$
(0.06)
$
(0.07)
$
(0.05)
$
(0.02)
$
(0.02)
$
(0.04)

Expect
Cost of
Discount
$ 27.27
$ 24.75
$ 18.75
$ 22.22
$ 29.67
$ 35.55
$ 31.20
$ 15.75
$ 23.12
$ 33.11

Individual Forecasts

Style
Assualt
Seduced
Entice
Electra
Gail
Daphne
Isis
Anita
Teri
Stephanie
Totals

Price
90
73
80
173
110
148
99
93
123
133

Laura
Carolyn
2500
1900
4600
4300
1200
1600
2500
1900
900
1000
1700
3500
800
700
4400
3300
800
900
600
900
20000
20000

Greg
2700
3900
1500
1900
900
2600
1000
3500
1000
1000
20000

Wendy
2450
4000
1550
2800
1300
2600
1600
1500
1100
1100
20000

Tom
2800
4300
950
1800
800
2300
950
4200
950
950
20000

Wally
Average
2800
2525
3000
4017
1350
1358
2000
2150
1200
1017
1600
2383
1200
1042
2875
3296
1850
1100
2125
1113
20000
20000

0.1666444

1867
2940
879
1369
641
1035
416
1270
363
99

1867
2940
879
1369
641
1035
0
1270
0
0
10000

1925
3417
758
1550
417
1783
442
2696
500
513

Standard deviation of
Std Dev of Buying customer demand =
Committee's
2*(Std. Dev of Buying
Forecast
Committee's Forecast)
340
680
556
1113
248
496
404
807
194
388
697
1394
323
646
1047
2094
381
762
524
1048
471
943

Q*
2984
4767
1693
2695
1278
3323
1478
4708
1614
1819
26359

category
1
1
1
1
3
1
3
1
3
3

q normal
2264
3617
1284
2045
970
2522
1121
3572
1224
1380

normalize
d
0.2695
0.2771
0.3649
0.3756
0.3818
0.5848
0.6204
0.6353
0.6923
0.9418

1263
2008
679
1075
508
1192
521
1648
550
556

category
(empty)
1
3
Total Result

Individual Forecasts

Style
Assualt
Seduced
Entice
Electra
Gail
Daphne
Isis
Anita
Teri
Stephanie
Totals

Price
90
73
80
173
110
148
99
93
123
133

Laura
Carolyn
2500
1900
4600
4300
1200
1600
2500
1900
900
1000
1700
3500
800
700
4400
3300
800
900
600
900
20000
20000

Greg
2700
3900
1500
1900
900
2600
1000
3500
1000
1000
20000

Wendy
2450
4000
1550
2800
1300
2600
1600
1500
1100
1100
20000

Tom
2800
4300
950
1800
800
2300
950
4200
950
950
20000

Wally
Average
2800
2525
3000
4017
1350
1358
2000
2150
1200
1017
1600
2383
1200
1042
2875
3296
1850
1100
2125
1113
20000
20000

0.1666444

1867
2940
879
1369
641
1035
416
1270
363
99

1867
2940
879
1369
641
1035
0
1270
0
0
10000

1925
3417
758
1550
417
1783
442
2696
500
513

Standard deviation of
Std Dev of Buying customer demand =
Committee's
2*(Std. Dev of Buying
Forecast
Committee's Forecast)
340
680
556
1113
248
496
404
807
194
388
697
1394
323
646
1047
2094
381
762
524
1048
471
943

Q*
2984
4767
1693
2695
1278
3323
1478
4708
1614
1819
26359

category
1
1
1
1
3
1
3
1
3
3

q normal
2264
3617
1284
2045
970
2522
1121
3572
1224
1380

normalize
d
0.2695
0.2771
0.3649
0.3756
0.3818
0.5848
0.6204
0.6353
0.6923
0.9418

1263
2008
679
1075
508
1192
521
1648
550
556

category
(empty)
1
3
Total Result

Sample Buying Committee Forecasts, 10 Styles of Women's Park

Style
Gail
Isis
Entice
Assault
Teri
Electra
Stephanie
Seduced
Anita
Daphne
Totals

Price
$110
$99
$80
$90
$123
$173
$133
$73
$93
$148

Laura
900
800
1,200
2,500
800
2,500
600
4,600
4,400
1,700
20,000

Carolyn
1,000
700
1,600
1,900
900
1,900
900
4,300
3,300
3,500
20,000

Greg

Individual Forecasts
Wendy
Tom
900
1,300
800
1,000
1,600
950
1,500
1,550
950
2,700
2,450
2,800
1,000
1,100
950
1,900
2,800
1,800
1,000
1,100
950
3,900
4,000
4,300
3,500
1,500
4,200
2,600
### 2,300
20,000
20,000 20,000

Obermeyer's
wholesale price
1.06067
Standard
Average
deviation
Forecasts
(SD)
Gail
1,017
194
Isis
1,042
323
Entice
1,358
248
Assault
2,525
340
Teri
1,100
381
Electra
2,150
404
Stephanie
1,113
524
Seduced
4,017
556
Anita
3,296
1,047
Daphne
2,383
697
Totals
20,000
4,714
Style

2x SD
388
646
496
680
762
807
1,048
1,113
2,094
1,394
9,428

Produce = average-2xSD Hong Kong

629
395
863
1,845
338
1,343
65
2,904
1,202
990
10,572

China

629
1,200
600
1,200
863
1,200
1,845
1,845
600
1,200
1,343
1,343
600
1,200
2,904
2,904
1,202
1,202
990
1,200
11,573 14,493

mittee Forecasts, 10 Styles of Women's Parkas

Average Forecasts

Wally
1,200
1,200
1,350
2,800
1,850
2,000
2,125
3,000
2,875
1,600
20,000

1,017
1,042
1,358
2,525
1,100
2,150
1,113
4,017
3,296
2,383

Excess Order Hong Kong

Excess Order China

0
(205)
0
0
(262)
0
(535)
0
0
0

(571)
(805)
(337)
0
(862)
0
(1,135)
0
0
(210)

Standard deviation (SD)

194
323
248
340
381
404
524
556
1047
697

Hong Kong Extra Cost

$0
-$20,256
$0
$0
-$32,174
$0
-$71,186
$0
$0
$0
-$123,616

2x SD
388
646
496
680
762
807
1048
1113
2094
1394

China Extra Cost

-$62,864
-$79,656
-$26,985
$0
-$105,974
$0
-$150,986
$0
$0
-$31,148
-$457,614

Assume k=1.06
Produce
HK
HK excess minimum order CHINA
CHINA excess minimum order
Average-2SD
(>=600)
(>=1200)
605
605
0
1,200
(595)
356
600
(244)
1,200
(844)
833
833
0
1,200
(367)
1,803
1,803
0
1,803
0
292
600
(308)
1,200
(908)
1,294
1,294
0
1,294
0
1
600
(599)
1,200
(1,199)
2,836
2,836
0
2,836
0
1,075
1,075
0
1,200
(125)
905
905
0
1,200
(295)
10,000
11,150
(1150) 14,333
(4,333)

Hong Kong
Op. Time (week)

Inventory Differences between HK China

Style
Gail
Isis
Entice
Assault
Teri
Electra
Stephanie
Seduced
Anita
Daphne
Totals

1.06067

Price
$110
$99
$80
$90
$123
$173
$133
$73
$93
$148

Standard
Average
deviation
Forecasts
(SD)
1,017
194
1,042
323
1,358
248
2,525
340
1,100
381
2,150
404
1,113
524
4,017
556
3,296
1047
2,383
697

2x SD
388
646
496
680
762
807
1048
1113
2094
1394

Produce
Avg - (1.06*2SD)
605
356
833
1,803
292
1,294
1
2,836
1,075
905
10,000

Produce in
Excess Quantity
HK
CHINA
HK
CHINA
605
1,200
0
(595)
600
1,200
(244)
(844)
833
1,200
0
(367)
1,803
1,803
0
0
600
1,200
(308)
(908)
1,294
1,294
0
0
600
1,200
(599)
(1,199)
2,836
2,836
0
0
1,075
1,200
0
(125)
905
1,200
0
(295)
11,150
14,333 (1,150)
(4,333)

Excess Cost
HK
CHINA
$0 -$65,455
-$24,138 -$83,538
$0 -$29,391
$0
$0
-$37,857 -$111,657
$0
$0
-$79,641 -$159,441
$0
$0
$0 -$11,635
$0 -$43,664
-$141,636 -$504,779